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PremierBromanov · 10-26-2021, 12:42 PM

Welcome back to the first iteration of Players to Watch, a series I will invariably drop when i get bored or forget about.

I want to take a moment and talk about a few players catching my eye and explain why they may be worth keeping tabs on. These are not endorsements of a pick. Indeed, you may want to wait a few seasons, or perhaps their success is determined by team success (or lackthereof with bad teams), something that can change with the tide.

The biggest factor in determining fantasy success for a player is Time on Ice. Every single player in the top 50 has 20 minutes or more ATOI except for three players: Andreas Kvalheim (18 ATOI) and Jasper Maximov (18 ATOI) and Rikard Hammarberg (19.7). Because this factor is so big, it is worth calculating the FP / 60 of each player (that is, Fantasy Points per 60 minutes of ice time).

We calculate this with the following formula: Fantasy Point Total / Total Minutes Played * 60

Sorting our data this way produces results you might already guess. Aaron Wilson leads the pack with 20.90 FP/60, followed by Karl Krashwagen, Rikard Hammerberg, and Mitchell van der Heijden. Leading defensemen like Lyle Odelein III, Pojo Biscuit, Samuel Michaud, Magnus Liljestrom, Keith Lee, and even forward Kriss Darzins have fewer FP/60 because they play a lot more minutes, anywhere from 22 to 24 minutes). For this reason I should be calculating these differently since Dmen typically play far more minutes than forwards, but that's not necessarily an absolute, since there are the same number of lines for fowards and defense. Still, most teams heavily favor their top pairs playing more often and use depth on the forward side more effectively.

So anyway, here's a few players to keep an eye on. Ill put some stats below each player. For the fantasy points section, there's two stats to be aware of. FP/60 which is the aforementioned fantasy points per 60 minutes player, and TMP which is Top Minutes Points -- Or rather, how many fantasy points would this player have if they played Lyle Odelein III minutes (24.3). That TOI isn't the max, but it's a decent barometer to use. And lastly, the overall rank in terms of FP/60

	Jasper Maximov	RD	S56	----
15 goals	31 assists	180 shots	54 hits	181 shots blocked
384.4 points	19.26 FP/60	18.10 ATOI	515.49 TMP	5th overall

Jasper Maximov is one of those players who is playing exceptionally well compared to the amount of ice time they get. With just 18 minutes a night, Jasper is 2nd among Baltimore defensemen in points and sees no power play time and barely any penalty kill time. The majority of his fantasy success is due to his high goals and assist numbers, something that can fluctuate for defensemen season to season. But Jasper also has a fair number of shots and shot blocks, especially considering how well Baltimore plays. His high corsi due in part to his shot blocking. Among leading fantasy defensemen, he has more shot blocks than most, excepting Pojo Biscuit and Lyle Odelein III, both from teams who finished 2nd to last in their division. I mention this only because 1) Jasper is getting better and has 4 more seasons until regression and 2) Baltimore shouldn't be getting worse any time soon. Jasper ranks 2nd to last on the team in terms of ice time. If he manages to secure 20 or even 22 minutes of ice time with the same success he's had, he could be a tremendous force for any fantasy team. The question is: Can he do it again?

	Andreas Kvalheim	C	S45	----
28 goals	35 assists	219shots	214 hits	45 shots blocked
395.3 points	19.19 FP/60	18.73 ATOI	513.55 TMP	6th overall

You can't keep a good dog down. Kvalheim is far from a fringe fantasy player and has seen some time in the upper echelons of fantasy success before. But Kvalheim is, understandably, getting older. He is by far the oldest player in the top 50, except for fellow classmate Cassius Darrow. He plays 3rd line center for Texas and 2nd power play and penalty kill units. Despite his low-ish ice time, Kvalheim manages an impressive 28 goals and a tremendous 214 hits to go along side his 219 shots. In terms of the top 10 FP/60, only Pojo Biscuit has more hits. So why watch Kvailheim? Well, really it's on the off-chance that regression hasn't completely annihilated his skill, and that High Hascdi continues his growth in a way that elevates Kvailheim and Kubinec, assuming they are linemates given their ice time. Or Pihl. Kvailheim is by no means a safe pick, but he could surprise us again next season.

	Jean-Locke Zidane	RD	S58	----
5 goals	14 assists	76 shots	314 hits	125 shots blocked
322.9 points	17.56 FP/60	16.72 ATOI	469.89 TMP	14th overall

Jean-Locke Zidane is one of the bright spots in NOLAs long term rebuild project. With Connor Hutton ramping up into his prime, and fellow classmate Ole Olson right behind him, Jean is poised for more ice time as his career continues. Somehow Lyle Odelein is still the team's top D in terms of TPE, but just about every other player on NOLA's roster is going up, and not down. Jean being pretty high up on the list for NOLA's D, we can expect him to see more ice time in the next few seasons. Jean did not have an impressive fantasy season by regular standards, but given his extremely low ice time, Jean did very well. He is 2nd in the league in hits behind Juni Panda, but did so with 5 fewer minutes a night (and 200 fewer hits). Jean is one of the only players in this list with fewer than 18 minutes a night. If NOLA helps him gather more goals and assists and shots on goal, his hits should technically decline as puck possession goes up. But team success is often player success, and Jean could end up being closer to Oliver Cleary than a rookie defenseman.

	Samuel Michaud	RD	S50	----
13 goals	43 assists	252 shots	162 hits	147 shots blocked
453.7 points	18.32 FP/60	22.51 ATOI	490.43 TMP	9th overall

This is perhaps no surprise to anyone and in some ways feels a little lazy to write on, but I'd be remiss if I left out Samuel Michaud. For those who weren't paying attention (me), Hamilton did not have the cap space to sign Michaud to an extension. Or at the very least, chose not to sell assets to make it happen. Knowing this, it seems a deal was not able to be made with any team. Thus, Michaud was a free agent. As fantasy drafting started, many took Michaud at his usual top 5 position. Hamilton #1 D, it's a no brainer. However, Michaud isn't a steelhawk, now he is a forge...? Forgee? Forger? At any rate, the Forge are far from a bottom tier team. They just barely edged out atlanta for a shot at the second round (since it's doubtful they'd beat BAP), but ultimately fell in the first round. All that to say, the Forge are a formiddable team and even more so now that Michaud is on the team. Still, Michaud is one to watch because the Forge are not Hamilton. Michaud should easily beat out the top pairing of Rex Kirkby and Igor Victory and see plenty of ice time, but it would make sense if all three players saw slightly less than the 22 on average Michaud and Kirkby had last season, as perhaps the Forge will lean less on the top pair and more on their defensive depth. The question is, can Michaud beat out his impressive 252 shots, 43 assists, and 13 goals on a "lesser" team? And if he does, will he make up those points with blocked shots and hits, as less possession = more hits and shots blocked. The biggest reason to watch Michaud, of course, is to see if anyone fucked up by picking him so high before knowing where he was headed. I would not be surprised if Michaud did just as well in philly as he did in hamilton.

	Guy o'Shea	RD	S52	----
12 goals	33 assists	220 shots	88 hits	132 shots blocked
367 points	16.72 FP/60	19.95 ATOI	447.52 TMP	21st overall

Just as we watch Michaud, we should keep an eye on any hamilton player set to take his spot. While Evangelos Giannopoulos is not quite ready to take the #1 spot, there's a chance that Guy o'Shea steps in to play with Hugh Jazz. Guy has seen the top spot in fantasy before, so it's no surprise he could do well again. His fantasy point totals arent that different from Michaud, excepting that he has half the hits. Given more Ice time, probably in the way of power play time, Guy should be a solid defenseman this year if he keeps it up. He's not necessarily the most efficient in terms of FP/60, but he may still be a better option than a lot of defensemen.

1700 words + research
Ready for grading