Evaluating First Round Draft Performances | S65 - S69 | 2x Draft Media
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downer
Portal Admin Posting Freak
Every season the management behind each SHL team puts in a lot of time and effort into making sure they've done all they can to have a successful draft. There are countless factors that go into each teams decision making process, and plenty of unknowns that can make those decisions extremely impactful on the future of their respective teams. From unexpected player retirements, to inactivity, sometimes things just don't work out. Other times, someone may slip under the radar and end up being a top producer. What I've tried to do here is to put some numbers to team and seasonal performance, to maybe give some more insights into teams that have had more consistent success. The following data was taken from the draft history here on the forums, and current data available via the SHL analytics site. I'm far from a data scientist, but this was a fun project that helped answer some of my own questions about seasonal performance in the draft and progressive changes in participation.
Be aware that there could be inaccuracies in this data, as there was a good deal of manual translation of the data to match things up from the forums to SHL analytics. Players may have been traded from their original draft team, which wasn't a necessary data point for my purposes, but could absolutely sway some of the final team performance numbers IF they were counted towards the current team they're playing for. But, what we're concerned about here is how the team that drafted that player performed in respect to that players draft position vs. their current draft rank. I only pulled data for the first round from the last 5 drafts (S65 - S69). I used a very simple comparison to determine a players Draft Value: Subtract their Draft Rank from their Draft Position. If a user has a positive Draft Value, then they're performing at a higher level than expected based on their Draft Position. Likewise, a negative Draft Value would indicate that player is performing below their Draft Position. First, lets look at individual team performances through the last 5 drafts (alphabetical order based on city/region). Of note: Both Chicago and Seattle have had ZERO first round draft picks in the past 5 drafts: Atlanta Inferno Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Billy Herrington | 297 | 7 | 11 | -4 S68 | Pete Aleman | 465 | 15 | 24 | -9 S68 | Alexis Texas | 462 | 18 | 25 | -7 S67 | Potential Spam | 495 | 20 | 27 | -7 S66 | Munko Aitmukhambetov | 517 | 14 | 28 | -14 Baltimore Platoon Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S68 | Erik Bergmark | 507 | 2 | 7 | -5 S68 | Adrian O’Rugg | 395 | 11 | 31 | -20 S67 | Daniel Swift | 617 | 3 | 18 | -15 S67 | Isaac Forty-One | 676 | 12 | 13 | -1 Buffalo Stampede Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Grimmjow Jaegerjaquez | 315 | 18 | 6 | 12 S68 | Nash Topalo | 496 | 1 | 13 | -12 S68 | James Lutz | 500 | 14 | 8 | 6 S66 | Nikolai Skovgaard | 879 | 3 | 6 | -3 S66 | Casey Fantobens | 737 | 17 | 19 | -2 S65 | Tommy Thompson | 796 | 13 | 25 | -12 Calgary Dragons Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | David Doug | 285 | 13 | 18 | -5 S67 | Axel Kirby | 678 | 7 | 12 | -5 S66 | Tom Pedersen | 865 | 4 | 7 | -3 S65 | Jolmi Koivu | 676 | 14 | 27 | -13 S65 | Din Djarin | 574 | 15 | 29 | -14 Edmonton Blizzard Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Antoine Beauregard | 297 | 8 | 12 | -4 S68 | Liam Logger | 449 | 10 | 28 | -18 S68 | Guinness O’Bigbers | 330 | 19 | 39 | -20 S67 | Jack St. Clair | 717 | 2 | 2 | 0 S66 | Emil Egli | 881 | 5 | 5 | 0 S66 | Oles Kobliska | 834 | 7 | 12 | -5 S66 | Julian Eaglesong | 761 | 15 | 18 | -3 S65 | Luke Laraque | 964 | 6 | 13 | -7 S65 | Sophie Bordeleau | 1085 | 8 | 7 | 1 S65 | Patches the III | 900 | 10 | 19 | -9 S65 | Benjamin Surkhi-Ze'ev | 1094 | 12 | 4 | 8 Hamilton Steelhawks Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Clint Clampton | 279 | 16 | 22 | -6 S68 | Sebastien Regazzoni | 498 | 4 | 11 | -7 S67 | Bobby McGinnis | 696 | 5 | 6 | -1 S66 | Pyotr Gallen | 573 | 9 | 24 | -15 S66 | Manny Calavera | 786 | 13 | 17 | -4 S66 | Tom Holberg | 390 | 20 | 33 | -13 S65 | Miroslav Ketil | 795 | 7 | 23 | -16 S65 | Tommy Westbrook | 902 | 9 | 18 | -9 S65 | Aleksandr Iskandrov | 948 | 17 | 14 | 3 Los Angeles Panthers Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Georg N'Zola | 320 | 3 | 2 | 1 S69 | Ray Alexander | 275 | 19 | 24 | -5 S68 | Derek Martin | 510 | 3 | 4 | -1 S67 | Adam Prpich | 740 | 4 | 1 | 3 S65 | Reed Kobo | 1097 | 11 | 2 | 9 Manhattan Rage Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S66 | Torsten Eriksen | 426 | 10 | 31 | -21 S65 | Pass Forfeit | 1096 | 1 | 3 | -2 Minnesota Monarchs Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Luca Pane | 313 | 1 | 7 | -6 S68 | Alexander Minaj | 509 | 5 | 5 | 0 S67 | Nevek Kove | 707 | 1 | 3 | -2 S67 | Brendan Laroux | 552 | 11 | 24 | -13 S67 | Brennan Kennedy III | 421 | 17 | 37 | -20 S67 | Alexi Piastri | 600 | 19 | 19 | 0 S66 | Dominik Froste | 690 | 11 | 22 | -11 S65 | Dan Baltisberger | 740 | 4 | 26 | -22 Montreal Patriotes Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S66 | Benson Fliorentini | 897 | 2 | 1 | 1 New England Wolfpack Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Pork Tenderloin | 304 | 9 | 8 | 1 S67 | Sean Davies | 647 | 10 | 16 | -6 S67 | Jacques Hammer | 668 | 14 | 14 | 0 S66 | Edward Elric | 893 | 1 | 3 | -2 S65 | Leon Lokitonov | 450 | 3 | 35 | -32 New Orleans Specters Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Hugh Manius | 290 | 10 | 15 | -5 S68 | Filip Lund | 509 | 13 | 6 | 7 S68 | Lester Oiduser | 500 | 17 | 9 | 8 S66 | Matthew Mayhem | 552 | 8 | 26 | -18 Philadelphia Forge Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S68 | Nathaniel Barca | 467 | 9 | 19 | -10 S67 | Antonio Flusso | 701 | 8 | 4 | 4 S66 | Graj Virrok | 861 | 18 | 8 | 10 S65 | Ricky Koivu | 1088 | 2 | 6 | -4 San Francisco Pride Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Oskar Scholz | 318 | 4 | 3 | 1 S69 | Peter Tingle | 283 | 6 | 21 | -15 S69 | Dusty Wilson | 284 | 17 | 20 | -3 S68 | Viktor Hargreeves | 500 | 7 | 10 | -3 S68 | Ragnar Lothbrok | 524 | 12 | 1 | 11 S68 | Ignacio Garza | 466 | 20 | 21 | -1 S66 | Alvin Towne | 819 | 16 | 14 | 2 S65 | Ben Waters Jr | 968 | 18 | 12 | 6 Tampa Bay Barracuda Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Johnny Wagner-Svenson | 288 | 2 | 16 | -14 S69 | Jølñgüštrâädæviñçh DuBølk | 315 | 11 | 5 | 6 S69 | Klaes Ashford | 316 | 12 | 4 | 8 S68 | John Brown | 358 | 6 | 34 | -28 S67 | Bohdan Jarovsky | 464 | 13 | 29 | -16 S67 | Bruno Tooyo | 690 | 15 | 8 | 7 S67 | Connor McKeil | 516 | 16 | 25 | -9 S66 | Edge Rocks | 366 | 19 | 34 | -15 Texas Renegades Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Tiberius Kane | 270 | 14 | 26 | -12 S69 | Jack McCarthy | 268 | 15 | 28 | -13 S69 | James Dion | 301 | 20 | 10 | 10 S68 | Chris Valentine | 497 | 16 | 12 | 4 S67 | Hodor | 699 | 6 | 5 | 1 S67 | Pawter Meowski | 596 | 18 | 20 | -2 S66 | Rikert Biemanns | 888 | 6 | 4 | 2 S66 | Anthony Dionne | 894 | 12 | 2 | 10 S65 | David-Arturri Donskoi | 930 | 16 | 16 | 0 Toronto North Stars Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S65 | Faust Faker | 845 | 5 | 21 | -16 Winnipeg Aurora Draft History Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Petr Vrána | 323 | 5 | 1 | 4 S67 | Paul Peterson | 695 | 9 | 7 | 2 Now, based on our Draft Value calculation, here are the most valuable first round draft picks from each participating team from the past 5 drafts (order by Draft Value highest to lowest): Best Draft Pick by Team Team | Season | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value Buffalo Stampede | S69 | Grimmjow Jaegerjaquez | 315 | 18 | 6 | 12 San Francisco Pride | S68 | Ragnar Lothbrok | 524 | 12 | 1 | 11 Texas Renegades | S66 | Anthony Dionne | 894 | 12 | 2 | 10 Philadelphia Forge | S66 | Graj Virrok | 861 | 18 | 8 | 10 Los Angeles Panthers | S65 | Reed Kobo | 1097 | 11 | 2 | 9 Edmonton Blizzard | S65 | Benjamin Surkhi-Ze'ev | 1094 | 12 | 4 | 8 New Orleans Specters | S68 | Lester Oiduser | 500 | 17 | 9 | 8 Tampa Bay Barracuda | S69 | Klaes Ashford | 316 | 12 | 4 | 8 Winnipeg Aurora | S69 | Petr Vrána | 323 | 5 | 1 | 4 Hamilton Steelhawks | S65 | Aleksandr Iskandrov | 948 | 17 | 14 | 3 Montreal Patriotes | S66 | Benson Fliorentini | 897 | 2 | 1 | 1 New England Wolfpack | S69 | Pork Tenderloin | 304 | 9 | 8 | 1 Minnesota Monarchs | S67 | Alexi Piastri | 600 | 19 | 19 | 0 Baltimore Platoon | S67 | Isaac Forty-One | 676 | 12 | 13 | -1 Manhattan Rage | S65 | Pass Forfeit | 1096 | 1 | 3 | -2 Calgary Dragons | S66 | Tom Pedersen | 865 | 4 | 7 | -3 Atlanta Inferno | S69 | Billy Herrington | 297 | 7 | 11 | -4 Toronto North Stars | S65 | Faust Faker | 845 | 5 | 21 | -16 Next we have each team's overall performance. This is another simple formula, just totaling the Draft Value of all of their picks. Interestingly, only 3 teams managed a positive overall score: Overall Team Performances Team | Total Draft Value Los Angeles Panthers | 7 Winnipeg Aurora | 6 Montreal Patriotes | 1 Texas Renegades | 0 Philadelphia Forge | 0 San Francisco Pride | -2 New Orleans Specters | -8 Buffalo Stampede | -11 Toronto North Stars | -16 Manhattan Rage | -23 New England Wolfpack | -39 Calgary Dragons | -40 Atlanta Inferno | -41 Baltimore Platoon | -41 Edmonton Blizzard | -57 Tampa Bay Barracuda | -61 Hamilton Steelhawks | -68 Minnesota Monarchs | -74 Finally, some season specific data. First, we have each seasons first round draft picks in order of Draft Value (highest to lowest). Of note: The player with the highest Draft Class Rank for S65 wasn't drafted in the first round (M'Baku Olubori): S65 Draft History Season | Team | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S65 | Los Angeles Panthers | Reed Kobo | 1097 | 11 | 2 | 9 S65 | Edmonton Blizzard | Benjamin Surkhi-Ze'ev | 1094 | 12 | 4 | 8 S65 | San Franciso Pride | Ben Waters Jr | 968 | 18 | 12 | 6 S65 | Hamilton Steelhawks | Aleksandr Iskandrov | 948 | 17 | 14 | 3 S65 | Edmonton Blizzard | Sophie Bordeleau | 1085 | 8 | 7 | 1 S65 | Texas Renegades | David-Arturri Donskoi | 930 | 16 | 16 | 0 S65 | Manhattan Rage | Pass Forfeit | 1096 | 1 | 3 | -2 S65 | Philadelphia Forge | Ricky Koivu | 1088 | 2 | 6 | -4 S65 | Edmonton Blizzard | Luke Laraque | 964 | 6 | 13 | -7 S65 | Hamilton Steelhawks | Tommy Westbrook | 902 | 9 | 18 | -9 S65 | Edmonton Blizzard | Patches the III | 900 | 10 | 19 | -9 S65 | Buffalo Stampede | Tommy Thompson | 796 | 13 | 25 | -12 S65 | Calgary Dragons | Jolmi Koivu | 676 | 14 | 27 | -13 S65 | Calgary Dragons | Din Djarin | 574 | 15 | 29 | -14 S65 | Toronto North Stars | Faust Faker | 845 | 5 | 21 | -16 S65 | Hamilton Steelhawks | Miroslav Ketil | 795 | 7 | 23 | -16 S65 | Minnesota Monarchs | Dan Baltisberger | 740 | 4 | 26 | -22 S65 | New England Wolfpack | Leon Lokitonov | 450 | 3 | 35 | -32 S66 Draft History Season | Team | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S66 | Texas Renegades | Anthony Dionne | 894 | 12 | 2 | 10 S66 | Philadelphia Forge | Graj Virrok | 861 | 18 | 8 | 10 S66 | Texas Renegades | Rikert Biemanns | 888 | 6 | 4 | 2 S66 | San Franciso Pride | Alvin Towne | 819 | 16 | 14 | 2 S66 | Montreal Patriotes | Benson Fliorentini | 897 | 2 | 1 | 1 S66 | Edmonton Blizzard | Emil Egli | 881 | 5 | 5 | 0 S66 | New England Wolfpack | Edward Elric | 893 | 1 | 3 | -2 S66 | Buffalo Stampede | Casey Fantobens | 737 | 17 | 19 | -2 S66 | Buffalo Stampede | Nikolai Skovgaard | 879 | 3 | 6 | -3 S66 | Calgary Dragons | Tom Pedersen | 865 | 4 | 7 | -3 S66 | Edmonton Blizzard | Julian Eaglesong | 761 | 15 | 18 | -3 S66 | Hamilton Steelhawks | Manny Calavera | 786 | 13 | 17 | -4 S66 | Edmonton Blizzard | Oles Kobliska | 834 | 7 | 12 | -5 S66 | Minnesota Monarchs | Dominik Froste | 690 | 11 | 22 | -11 S66 | Hamilton Steelhawks | Tom Holberg | 390 | 20 | 33 | -13 S66 | Atlanta Inferno | Munko Aitmukhambetov | 517 | 14 | 28 | -14 S66 | Hamilton Steelhawks | Pyotr Gallen | 573 | 9 | 24 | -15 S66 | Tampa Bay Barracuda | Edge Rocks | 366 | 19 | 34 | -15 S66 | New Orleans Specters | Matthew Mayhem | 552 | 8 | 26 | -18 S66 | Manhattan Rage | Torsten Eriksen | 426 | 10 | 31 | -21 S67 Draft History Season | Team | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S67 | Tampa Bay Barracuda | Bruno Tooyo | 690 | 15 | 8 | 7 S67 | Philadelphia Forge | Antonio Flusso | 701 | 8 | 4 | 4 S67 | Los Angeles Panthers | Adam Prpich | 740 | 4 | 1 | 3 S67 | Winnipeg Aurora | Paul Peterson | 695 | 9 | 7 | 2 S67 | Texas Renegades | Hodor | 699 | 6 | 5 | 1 S67 | Edmonton Blizzard | Jack St. Clair | 717 | 2 | 2 | 0 S67 | New England Wolfpack | Jacques Hammer | 668 | 14 | 14 | 0 S67 | Minnesota Monarchs | Alexi Piastri | 600 | 19 | 19 | 0 S67 | Hamilton Steelhawks | Bobby McGinnis | 696 | 5 | 6 | -1 S67 | Baltimore Platoon | Isaac Forty-One | 676 | 12 | 13 | -1 S67 | Minnesota Monarchs | Nevek Kove | 707 | 1 | 3 | -2 S67 | Texas Renegades | Pawter Meowski | 596 | 18 | 20 | -2 S67 | Calgary Dragons | Axel Kirby | 678 | 7 | 12 | -5 S67 | New England Wolfpack | Sean Davies | 647 | 10 | 16 | -6 S67 | Atlanta Inferno | Potential Spam | 495 | 20 | 27 | -7 S67 | Tampa Bay Barracuda | Connor McKeil | 516 | 16 | 25 | -9 S67 | Minnesota Monarchs | Brendan Laroux | 552 | 11 | 24 | -13 S67 | Baltimore Platoon | Daniel Swift | 617 | 3 | 18 | -15 S67 | Tampa Bay Barracuda | Bohdan Jarovsky | 464 | 13 | 29 | -16 S67 | Minnesota Monarchs | Brennan Kennedy III | 421 | 17 | 37 | -20 S68 Draft History Season | Team | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S68 | San Francisco Pride | Ragnar Lothbrok | 524 | 12 | 1 | 11 S68 | New Orleans Specters | Lester Oiduser | 500 | 17 | 9 | 8 S68 | New Orleans Specters | Filip Lund | 509 | 13 | 6 | 7 S68 | Buffalo Stampede | James Lutz | 500 | 14 | 8 | 6 S68 | Texas Renegades | Chris Valentine | 497 | 16 | 12 | 4 S68 | Minnesota Monarchs | Alexander Minaj | 509 | 5 | 5 | 0 S68 | Los Angeles Panthers | Derek Martin | 510 | 3 | 4 | -1 S68 | San Franciso Pride | Ignacio Garza | 466 | 20 | 21 | -1 S68 | San Franciso Pride | Viktor Hargreeves | 500 | 7 | 10 | -3 S68 | Baltimore Platoon | Erik Bergmark | 507 | 2 | 7 | -5 S68 | Hamilton Steelhawks | Sebastien Regazzoni | 498 | 4 | 11 | -7 S68 | Atlanta Inferno | Alexis Texas | 462 | 18 | 25 | -7 S68 | Atlanta Inferno | Pete Aleman | 465 | 15 | 24 | -9 S68 | Philadelphia Forge | Nathaniel Barca | 467 | 9 | 19 | -10 S68 | Buffalo Stampede | Nash Topalo | 496 | 1 | 13 | -12 S68 | Edmonton Blizzard | Liam Logger | 449 | 10 | 28 | -18 S68 | Baltimore Platoon | Adrian O’Rugg | 395 | 11 | 31 | -20 S68 | Edmonton Blizzard | Guinness O’Bigbers | 330 | 19 | 39 | -20 S68 | Tampa Bay Barracuda | John Brown | 358 | 6 | 34 | -28 S69 Draft History Season | Team | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S69 | Buffalo Stampede | Grimmjow Jaegerjaquez | 315 | 18 | 6 | 12 S69 | Texas Renegades | James Dion | 301 | 20 | 10 | 10 S69 | Tampa Bay Barracuda | Klaes Ashford | 316 | 12 | 4 | 8 S69 | Tampa Bay Barracuda | Jølñgüštrâädæviñçh DuBølk | 315 | 11 | 5 | 6 S69 | Winnipeg Aurora | Petr Vrána | 323 | 5 | 1 | 4 S69 | Los Angeles Panthers | Georg N'Zola | 320 | 3 | 2 | 1 S69 | San Franciso Pride | Oskar Scholz | 318 | 4 | 3 | 1 S69 | New England Wolfpack | Pork Tenderloin | 304 | 9 | 8 | 1 S69 | San Franciso Pride | Dusty Wilson | 284 | 17 | 20 | -3 S69 | Atlanta Inferno | Billy Herrington | 297 | 7 | 11 | -4 S69 | Edmonton Blizzard | Antoine Beauregard | 297 | 8 | 12 | -4 S69 | New Orleans Specters | Hugh Manius | 290 | 10 | 15 | -5 S69 | Calgary Dragons | David Doug | 285 | 13 | 18 | -5 S69 | Los Angeles Panthers | Ray Alexander | 275 | 19 | 24 | -5 S69 | Minnesota Monarchs | Luca Pane | 313 | 1 | 7 | -6 S69 | Hamilton Steelhawks | Clint Clampton | 279 | 16 | 22 | -6 S69 | Texas Renegades | Tiberius Kane | 270 | 14 | 26 | -12 S69 | Texas Renegades | Jack McCarthy | 268 | 15 | 28 | -13 S69 | Tampa Bay Barracuda | Johnny Wagner-Svenson | 288 | 2 | 16 | -14 S69 | San Franciso Pride | Peter Tingle | 283 | 6 | 21 | -15 And the last data set, the player from the first round of each of the last 5 drafts with the highest Draft Value: Best Player Value Per Draft Season | Team | Player | TPE | Draft Pos. | Draft Rank | Draft Value S65 | Los Angeles Panthers | Reed Kobo | 1097 | 11 | 2 | 9 S66 | Philadelphia Forge | Graj Virrok | 861 | 18 | 8 | 10 S67 | Tampa Bay Barracuda | Bruno Tooyo | 690 | 15 | 8 | 7 S68 | San Francisco Pride | Ragnar Lothbrok | 524 | 12 | 1 | 11 S69 | Buffalo Stampede | Grimmjow Jaegerjaquez | 315 | 18 | 6 | 12 So what does all of this mean? Nothing, probably. But, I thought it gave some interesting insight in to some of the draft history and how teams have performed historically. If you made it this far, thank you for reading! Word count: (2959)
sve7en
SMJHL GM Littleton Award Winner
Jayba1t
Player Progression Director certified cool by trips
Carpy48
Graphic Graders I <3 Coffee
Yes, we drafted Patty.
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notorioustig
IIHF Federation Head Toast's Idiot of the Year 2021 01-11-2023, 01:43 AMsve7en Wrote: @notorioustig good work buddy No one can say I went out drafting busts
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luke
SHL GM Admiral of the Data Seas
CapnCooper
SHL GM SHL GM
honkerrs
IIHF Federation Head IIHF GM
Awesome work!
Ive done this in the past so for next time I'd personally recommend to wait a week into season to do these tpe compares. I know a lot of people on this list , and just in SHL in general, don't really update until the season begins. People Kinda take a break during this off time
Operation Ivy
Registered Posting Freak
Anthique
SHL GM Quebecer trying to make goalie TPE matter in Texas
SDCore
Simmer General Dumbass of the Site 01-11-2023, 02:09 AMjay2233 Wrote: @notorioustig keeping Seattle net zero here I see Same with Chicago LOL
WithTheMoose
Player Progression Director Posting Freak
Wow I can't believe you'd exclude Chicago this way.
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JNH
Registered S35 Challenge Cup Champion || Still Drunk
You’re telling me we didn’t make one bad first round pick in 5 seasons?
kinda nutty ngl - -
leafsftw1967
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