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Draft Lookback & Analysis: S46-S53 1st Rounds (2x Anniversary Media)
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(This post was last modified: 05-10-2020, 07:26 PM by honkerrs.)

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Draft Lookback & Analysis: S46-S53 1st Rounds

WARNING: LOTS OF GRAPHS AHEAD

As it is well known in any sport, drafts are essential to be as good as possible in order to set you up for long-term success and the winning sustainment of a franchise.  Whether you trade away successful draft picks or grow from within, these picks are a once a season event that can change the course of your franchise's history.  So with that being said I decided to take a look at the first round of the past 8 drafts since the expansion of 16 teams in the SHL.  Definitely understand that rounds after the first are extremely important as well, but not picking correctly in the first round with the "best" choices on the board, can be detrimental to your franchise.

Assumptions

I actually didn't do too many crazy assumptions in this analysis luckily.  From S46-S53 there actually has only been 1 pick forfeited and that was in S48.  Minnesota had to forfeit their 3rd Overall pick in that season.  So when you see the total draft picks doesn't equal 16*8 =  128, that's why. 

The next assumption I made was that I didn't mess with where the draft pick is now currently.  This is solely an examination of the draft classes and how team's scouting faired in these seasons.  If you pick well then the team can obviously use the draft pick for the future roster or since they were a great pick they used them to earn assets in some sort of way.

This isn't really an assumption maybe but just something to note.  All TPE I used was from 5/9/2020.  So if updates hit or whatever then you do this yourself we might slightly differ.  For the analysis I used TPE Earned per Season, instead of total TPE so I could sort of "normalize" from many different seasons.  For example, if a player was is in the S46 draft class, they have been in the SHL for 9 seasons.  Then if this player currently has 1500 TPE...then their TPE Earned/Season is (1500-155)/9 seasons = 149 TPE earned/Season.  Gives a slight disadvantage to the players who haven't been able to get the +5 weekly training in the most recent draft classes but about as good as you can get in my opinion.

General S46-S53 1st Round Breakdown

As I mentioned earlier, the drafts in this timeframe total to 127 total people drafted.  The chart below will tell you what the breakdown between positions were for the 1st round

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Next graph is going to let the best positions flex themselves on which position has performed the best, TPE earned/Season wise, from the past 8 drafts' 1st round.  The top value is the max, middle value is the average, bottom value is the min.  Sorry you stats nerds out there, didn't do standard deviations sorry to disappoint.  Maybe if I end up doing more past drafts but we will see ha ha.

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Alright defensemen out there of the past 8 drafts, feel free to flex on everyone.  Anyways, I refer to these averages in the rest of this piece.  Essentially if your draft pick earns about 128 TPE per season, then they are a decent first round pick based off the past 8 drafts.

General S46-S53 Team 1st Round Breakdown

Next graph here shows how many picks each team had in the 1st round and which position they went to.

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Nothing too crazy here that I noticed.  Thought it was kind of surprising how few teams actually pick goalies in the first round but I'd imagine it's about the same way in the NHL as well.  Also some teams surprisingly don't pick too many defensemen in the first round.  Maybe defense is easier to "bargain" hunt for in the later rounds, not sure.

Almost ran out of colors on this next one but this shows how many draft picks, if any, a team had per season in the first round.

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Pretty crazy that Tampa Bay had FIVE 1st rounders in the S47 draft.  I haven't been around very long at all so I will make very noob observations so ignore them if you want, but seems surprising to me that Tampa Bay isn't very competitive right now and are tanking again.  They've had a LOT of 1st round draft picks from 5+ seasons ago but couldn't get it together I guess.

Another thing that is important to the 1st round is where you exactly pick.  Obviously usually picking #1 in the draft (hello Edmonton Oilers) is going to be a massive difference than picking last in the first round.  This will matter later on in some charts I made but this graph shows you what has been the average position of the first round picks each team had from s46-s53.

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Feel like this chart makes sense for the most part, at least to me.  Some of the worst teams in the past 8 season have some of the best average position, some of the best have some of the worst.  An average of picking 6th for 8 seasons is either some pretty nice tanking, constant mediocrity or trading though.  Three teams were able to do that.

General Analysis of the 1st Round Drafts S46-S53

Ok this next graph is the TPE earned/season max,average, and mins of each 1st round draft class compared to the total.

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Thought this graph was really interesting.  A lot of you that have been here for awhile can probably give way more insight on this but the drafts have actually been fairly the same for the 1st rounds, except for S48 and S49, both average wise and the max and mins.  Also, as of now, S53 is looking to be an extremely solid draft class but as you can see in S52 we might see a lot more drop off in S53 this next coming season which I think is pretty reasonable.

This next graph is the TPE earned/season max,average, and mins of each 1st round draft class position across the 8 drafts.

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This one ended up being pretty interesting as well.  Right away what stands out is that #value 14th pick with an average of 139 TPE earned/season.  That's pretty awesome.  At the end of this article I'll list out the rankings of each draft pick because I feel like everyone already knows who the best is at each draft class, but not necessarily which position selected in the 1st round.  Another interesting thing is that you can kind of see a "tier" ranking of draft picks.  Tier 1 is about picks 1-4, then you see a pretty big drop off for the next tier of about 5-7.  Then 8-16 is kind of a crap shoot it seems like (except for value 14 of course).

Winners and Losers of the 1st Round Drafts S46-S53

Ok now it's time for the bragging rights of the past 8 drafts.  This first graph is just looking at the performance of all 16 teams in the 16 era 1st round by looking at the TPE earned/season max,average and mins of each player drafted by them in the first round.

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One of the surprising things here to me is that one of the current top teams, Hamilton, has the worst average drafts of the past 8 seasons.  Again you guys I'm sure know more, but they obviously either make up for it in free agency or have an older team.  At first glance it definitely looks like Buffalo,Chicago, LA, NOLA, and New England have the most consistent drafts.  Some of those teams also have the best draft positions so might be some of the reason.

So I decided to get a little crazy on these next 3 charts.  They're radar plots to present how each team has drafted by position again using TPE earned/Season as the comparison.

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I like to call the goalie one the celly otter graph.  Anyways, not much else to say here other than they kind of speak for themselves.  The green circles in the graphs represent the averages of the position for the past 8 seasons.  Some surprising things are the Hamilton and Manhattan's low rankings for the Defensemen picked in round 1.  They must've hit really well later on, which can be an analysis for another day.

Further Look: Who are the real 1st round drafting pros?

As most of you smart people have realized, most of the charts in the previous section don't take into account things like having less draft picks in the better draft classes and vice versa.  So to account for this I decided to take each team's average TPE earned/season by each 1st round selection and compare them to the total average TPE earned/season that I showed earlier.  This will help try to normalize things a bit to account for not having a lot of draft picks in good draft classes.  What will be showing on the graphs is the average TPE Earned/Season difference between the Avg TPE/Season for all of the 1st round of the draft class and the average TPE earned/Season of the team's picks in the 1st round of that draft.  Phew lots of averages.  So going to link a lot of charts so each person can flex on their specific team in a season.  Have fun.

Just to help explain this one.  It is showing that Buffalo first round picks are earning 40 TPE/Season more than the average from the first round in the S46 Draft.

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Again, the charts kind of speak for themselves here.  One thing I particularly thought was funny was that the S48 1st round had a ton of solid choices but 3 MASSIVE mistakes. Also the S53 draft has been pretty even so far, no extreme winners and losers yet but I think the data will show a big change after this next coming season.

The next chart summarizes the results with this "normalizing" method of comparing by taking the Average TPE Earned/Season across the 8 drafts (~128 TPE Earned/Season) to the average for each team across the 8 seasons.

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Just as a guide, this chart means that Baltimore's average TPE earned/season of their S46-S53 draft picks are 16 TPE earned/season lower than the S46-S53 1st round average.

Again, this graph is actually showing basically the same thing as the graph I showed earlier.  Seems that the most successful teams the past 8 season have been Buffalo, Chicago, New England, LA, and NOLA.

Even Further Look: Who are the real 1st round drafting pros?

Again, you smart SHLers might have already thought of this but all the data before this didn't account for what position these team's usually drafted in.  So how I prepared my final "normalization" to find the ultimate best scouting team is by first taking the average earned TPE/season by draft position that I showed earlier.  Then with that data, find the difference between the team's average draft position average and their s46-s53 average performance.  Ok that probably made no sense so let me show the graph and I'll explain it after.

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For an example on how this graph works...so New England's average pick position for the past 8 drafts is pick 10.  The average TPE earned/season for pick 10 is 114.  New England's s46-s53 average TPE Earned/Season is 149.  Therefore 149-114 = 36 (rounding stuff). 

You can see that team's with higher average pick positions of the past 8 drafts, like NOLA and New England, jumped up in this chart meaning they've done extremely well for how low their draft picks have been.

Summary

There are a lot of ways you can win in sports but picking correctly in the 1st round is definitely one of the most important.  As you can see most of the best drafting teams are the most consistent playoff teams.  The data can also show a lot of possible failures as a franchise as well , such as some teams that have not been good lately even though they've been picking fairly well draftees.  I'll leave that to someone else to analyze but definitely from my analysis it seems that New Orleans, New England and LA Panthers have done the best drafting in the 1st round for the past 8 seasons.

Feel free to bug me on discord, here, or wherever if you don't understand the graphs or see a mistake!  Enjoy

Raw Data of rankings per Pick

Gonna leave you with the rankings of each draft position.  #value14pick. Feel free to contact me if you want my spreadsheet.

1 OA
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2 OA
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3 OA
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4 OA
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5 OA
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6 OA
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7 OA
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8 OA
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9 OA
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10 OA
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11 OA
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12 OA
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13 OA
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#value14 OA
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15 OA
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16 OA
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#2

Jesus
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#3

damn, this is some nice work

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#4

Team pick #11 unite

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#5

Stampede

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#6

dude this is fucking awesome
also somehow i'm the best 13th overall pick, cool

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#7

just cause you said I can, FUCK YEAH DEFENSEMAN BEST PICK
Incredible work though, this is some amazing research that you have done and is really interesting to see.
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#8

Thanks everyone for reading my long winded analysis!

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#9

Flip S53 graph for Edmonton before I cast hell fury upon this article. William Hartmann is a national TREASURE.

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#10

padraig sarantez will forever haunt me

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#11

@SDCore Corey Kennedy 176.38
Matt Kholin 158.89

So that's how you've been creeping up on me damn!

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#12

05-11-2020, 09:38 PMKalakar Wrote: @SDCore Corey Kennedy 176.38
Matt Kholin 158.89

So that's how you've been creeping up on me damn!


you see me creeeepin :eyes:

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#13

Round 14 unite! Value picks hurrah!

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#14

bump
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#15

Umm...wow! That was amazing.

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