Hey Hey y’all, Ult here. With the season predictions due in a few hours, I wanted to put out an article on “guessing” division standings and also looked a bit at team health, and tiers within the SJMHL where teams are. Now how do we do this, well with statistics! TPE data to be precise, along with the average season age of the teams so far.

But before we get into everything, some people in the SJMHL writer's room have done amazing work in getting into team rankings, and present and future team health
First, ec06aaj has done a great article on “Who’s Screwed”, an analysis of the impact graduation and call-ups have had on teams in the SJMHL, and you can read it here https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=134695
Secondly, Jexter put out an incredibly long and greatly in-depth article about this season's power rankings, go check it out here https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=135047
Last but not least, our favorite s76 president JFK put out an article on which teams are positioned for future success, looking at the count of players’ season age on each team, looking at where old and young teams are. Check it out here https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=135215

Now, I did a lot of digging into the TPE of teams, and I've put it into a pretty little Excel sheet here.

The Charts


Now this sheet is currently arranged by average applied TPE, and the “Rank” on the right side is 1st to 14th in terms of average applied TPE, from here we can see some pretty clear chasms open up, and I’ll explain those chasms later. We can also organize this to show a ranking of total applied TPE, largest to smallest.


Not an end all be all stat, but it does make the Regina Elk look much better overall, and it's another thing to look at when determining rankings and tiers. Our last graphic before rankings will be on age, sorted from the oldest teams on top, to the youngest teams on the bottom


Here, we see our oldest teams are usually the best teams, but Newfoundland is pretty old with a pretty low average TPE. But I'll save all the breakdowns for later. Now, let's get onto the Tiers of all teams in the SJMHL now. We’ll go from 4 Star Cup Contenders to Playoff Hopefuls, to Mid-Tier, to Rebuilding/Low-Tier teams, to Abandon All Hope.

Tier 1 - 4 Star Cup Contenders - All of these teams are legitimate threats to win the 4 Star Cup come playoff time. They are characterized by having around 371 avg. applied TPE, and having a relatively older team

- Yukon Malamates
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 1
Avg. Season Age - 74.0588
Yukon enters this year as being set up for a deep playoff run, focusing on their veterans to lead them to victory. They have 9 players (Half s73, half s74 at 425 TPE, and a lot of players that are aging. They can have 1 fully staffed Line with 425 TPE with a 425 TPE Goalie, which allows them to have a lethal 1st line. However, having about half of your team on the way out, they need to win, and now

- Quebec City Citadelles
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 2
Avg. Season Age - 74.0588
Quebec oh Quebec, Last season's runaway favorites to be the 4 Star Cup Champion, only to fall flat to the Detriot Red Wing in the Conference Championship. QCC also had 9 players at 425 TPE, although all of their players are in s74, so a better place age-wise than Yukon and all of the other 4 Star Cup Contenders as well. QCC has the luxury of being able to have a legit shot this year, as well as being able to compete next year.

- Colorado Raptors
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 3
Avg. Season Age - 74.2941

The Dinos from Colorado came one game away from winning the 4 Star Cup last year, and are trying to get back to the big dance and finish the job this year. They have 9 players at 425, with the rest at 350 (Their rookies are at around 230, max earning). They have the Depth to have all line scoring and power throughout the year, a threat to be reckoned with.


Tier 2 - Playoff Hopefuls - These teams are one step away from being cup favorites, with some people in here on the upswing, and some on the downswing. These teams either will or should make the playoffs, and can look to making it to round 2, with a hope to make it to round 3. Teams here are characterized by avg. applied TPE around 353 TPE, and having below average age/older

- Regina Elk
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 4
Avg. Season Age - 74.2778

A team I considered putting in the tier 1, but felt like their avg. Applied TPE was just too low to be there. But make no mistake, out of the 3 teams here, they are the most lethal team here. They have the most applied TPE out of every team in the SJMHL. They may be able to sneak in a run for the cup, but their true talent should peak next year, as their 6 s75 pliers should become 425 TPE players next season

- Detroit Falcons
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 5
Avg. Season Age - 74.2941

Last season 4 Star Cup Winners, and they had a great team to do it. 4/6 starters are gone this year, and will probably still be a solid team, but always behind the success of last season's teams. They should make the playoffs in a stacked division, but they do not have the depth to truly be a team to make the same type of Cup run as they did last year.

- Anchorage Armada
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 6
Avg. Season Age - 74.5294

Anchorage had the unfortunate fate of facing QCC in round 2 of the playoffs last year and suffered an early exit. Anchorage is in limbo now, not good enough to truly try and win the 4 Star Cup, but not at the point where they should sell assets off either. They have a mighty solid rookie core, so they have to wait and bide their time for next season, or maybe the year after. However, their 6 s74 may want a push, as they only have 2 seasons left. Whatever happens to ANC, they will be a force at some point, just not now.

Tier 3 - Mid-Tier - A tiny tier, but a necessary tier. These teams are well below their 4 star cup challengers and playoff hopefuls, but are massively above the teams in the rebuilding phase right now. They’ll be waiting for 1~2 years to truly make a strike. Most of these teams will make it to round 1 or 2 of the playoffs. Teams here are characterized by avg. applied TPE around 335 TPE, and being above average age/younger

- Carolina Kraken
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 7
Avg. Season Age - 74.7059

Carolina is a team on the rise this year, out of the rebuilding phase last year. Thanks to being last in a stacked 4 team division, they earned themselves top picks in the draft, making a young team even younger. They don’t have the avg. applied TPE to strike right now, but as long as everything goes to plan, they will be a threat for the next 2~3 years.

  - Maine Timber
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 8
Avg. Season Age - 74.5882

Maine is in the position here to start making moves, as their window for a true cup run is next year, and can expand that window by trying to acquire new players from s74 or s75. They don’t have the high end talent to be contenders this year, so this year will be a quiet one as they wait for next year

Tier 4 - Rebuilding/Low-Tier - These teams will be some of the punching bags this year, and they vary from being on the cusp of mid-tier to heavy rebuilds. Most of these teams will be waiting 2~3 years to have cup-run windows. Teams here are characterized by avg. applied TPE around 300 TPE, and being  either somewhat younger to the youngest in the league
- Great Fall Grizzlies
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 9
Avg. Season Age - 74.7059

One of the better off teams in this tier, they lead in avg. applied TPE, and are one of the younger teams in the league. They don't have high-end talent this year, but have a massive amount of players in s44, s45 and s46. They would be a mid-tier team but do not have anywhere near enough avg. applied TPE to total Applied TPE to be there. They are one of the rebuilding teams that could strike next year, but will probably fully develop in 2 years

- Newfoundland Berserkers
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 10
Avg. Season Age - 74.4118

One of the only teams where I can be confident and say that they will be selling off a lot of s73 assets this year. They are really old and have minimal TPE. They have a good chunk of high-end talent, and can sell it off for rookies and draft picks. I don’t know how they will be, as many of their plan involve trades I cannot predict. Best case scenario, they leverage their high end talent and get enough youth to push in 2 years


- Vancouver Whalers
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 11
Avg. Season Age - 74.7222

Vancouver is a team with a very solid young core, with 6 s75 players, and 6 s76 players. All their players are extremely solid for their age(give or take 2 stragglers in each class), and should be truly making a strike for the cup in 2~3 years time. No threat this year, but they will steadily climb the ranks

- Kelowna Knights
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 12
Avg. Season Age - 74.6471

Kelowna has a weird situation. They have a bevy of s73 players (5) and a bevy of s76 players (6). They do not have the TPE to be competitive and are fighting with Nevada to get the last playoff spot in the Net Man division sponsored by Denny’s. They can choose to retain all of their players, and have a last hurrah for their s73 players, or have a fire sale and decide to stay in the rebuilding zone for 2 more years (but when they finish, they will be the scariest team in the SJMHL).

- Nevada Battleborn
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 12
Avg. Season Age - 75.1579

The Battleborn are of the extremes here. In the rebuilding tier, they are the deepest into a rebuild, have the least TPE in the group by a country mile, and are going to be a punching bag for every team. However, they have 5 s75 players and a league-high 9 s76 rookies, and are the youngest team in the league with an average age of 75.1579. Their new rookies class will produce at minimum 5 Max earners, and possibly 9 max earners. They also have a high amount of total applied TPE for where they are at. Their window will sit in 2~3 years


Tier 5 - Abandon All Hope - This is a tier reserved for St. Louis. Their old management pushed everything for a championship, and now the devil has come to take its due. They may even stay in this tier for another year. The lone team here is characterized by avg. applied TPE of 225 TPE, and being extremely young. Their window will be in 3~4 years

- St. Louis Scarecrows
Avg. Applied TPE Rank - 13
Avg. Season Age - 75.1053

This team is in hell. They have no 425 TPE players, one 350 TPE player. It’ll be a miracle if they get anywhere near .300 on points. Their s75 players haven’t developed, with only 3 of their players going to be able to make it to near max. Their lone and sole hope is the s76 class, which is the first class under new management. They made a masterclass in trading people for picks, and were able to get 8 players, 7 of which should be max earners. If the s76 class is amazing, the GMs will have done one of the best jobs of a long time of turning around a team in such dire straits so quickly. However, if they fail, the long march to relevancy will take seasons that the new s76 rookies won’t get to see. 3~4 years will be their window if everything goes to plan, and 5~8 years if it all falls apart.


Those are the rankings, all dictated by that avg. applied TPE. However, the predictions are based on divisions, not league wide standings, so here is the breakdown and explanations for each placement for every division.


510 division
1. COL 
2. REG 
3. DET 
4. GFG 
The Rankings here are pretty set. COL is set for this year, looking to make a cup push and will easily wrap up the 510.  REG is a great team this year, an amazing team next year. Look for a surprise run this year. DET is going to be ok but will be suffering from a Championship hangover. Easy playoffs, but not an easy road from there. GFG gets screwed in terms of playoffs, but they are set for high draft picks and a good development year.

EOTTIRD division
1. YUK 
2. ANC 
3. CAR 
YUK is old but Gold, is an easy division win for them. ANC and CAR are close, but ANC does have a minor step on CAR, so ANC over CAR for the second seed in the division.

Net Man Division Sponsored By Denny's:
1. QCC 
2. MET 
3. KEL 
4. NBB 
QCC is a cup contender this year, a massive step above the division. An easy division win and bye week for them. MAI isn't near QCC, but also far better than KEL and NBB, the easiest second seed of the league.
KEL and NBB is hard. I really do believe in my team, the Nevada Battleborn. I believe my team will have a ridiculously good come-up, and Jess is a sim wizard, but KEL does have a TPE advantage at the beginning of the year, and I believe the last spot will come down to less than 5 points. KEL and NBB are interchangeable, but a slight nod to KEL on data, and a slight nod to NBB on heart.

Addition Subtraction
1. VAN 
2. NEW 
3. SLS 
NEW is old (ironic), and while they have the slightest of slight TPE advantages over VAN, I believe they are going to try and use this year to deal out some assets to other teams for draft picks. VAN will have a good development year, they won't push or pull. STL is screwed, like, really, really done. Genuinely is the 14th/last team in the SMJHL. Also a cupcake division, all these teams are bad, they are just not gonna win a playoff series, unless it's against themselves.

That wraps it up, hope y’all had a pleasure reading this, and I hope that my predictions are spot on, or maybe I'll be laughing at myself at the end of the year!

hell yea brother

Wow thanks for the effort on this writeup! No doubt in my mind the best team in the league is Yukon. we are in it to win it!

Bleed Black and Gold
LD #6 Dash Jackson- Yukon Malamutes

Good write up, graphs are always appreciated.

Approved @Ultimatedestroye @CptSquall

Tibuk Soonika - G - Tampa Bay Barracuda| Portal Page


Tibuk Soonika Career Stats
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Tibuk Soonika SMJHL Career S69 (nice) to S72
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S69 KEL | 29 GP | 1753 MP | 15 W| 11 L | 3 OTL | 722 SHA | 644 SAV | 78 GA | 2.67 GAA | 4 SO | 0.892 SAV% | 67 GR
S69 Playoffs | 2 GP | 121 MP | 1 W| 0 L | 1 OTL | 49 SHA | 45 SAV | 4 GA | 1.98 GAA | 0 SO | 0.918 SAV% | 74 GR
S70 KEL | 32 GP | 1928 MP | 13 W| 14 L | 5 OTL | 843 SHA | 757 SAV | 86 GA | 2.68 GAA | 2 SO | 0.898 SAV% | 69 GR
S70 Playoffs | 7 GP | 417 MP | 3 W| 4 L | 0 OTL | 210 SHA | 191 SAV | 19 GA | 2.73 GAA | 1 SO | 0.910 SAV% | 74 GR
##AWARD## S70 Matt Lewis-Flood Trophy
S71 KEL | 42 GP | 2329 MP | 11 W| 24 L | 4 OTL | 1484 SHA | 1310 SAV | 174 GA | 4.48 GAA | 0 SO | 0.883 SAV% | 68 GR
S71 Playoffs | 0 GP |
S72 KEL | 41 GP | 2302 MP | 11 W| 27 L | 2 OTL | 1487 SHA | 1307 SAV | 180 GA | 4.69 GAA | 0 SO | 0.879 SAV% | 67 GR
S72 Playoffs | 0 GP |
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Tibuk Soonika SHL Career S73 to ???
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S73 TBB | 59 GP | 3211MP | 22 W| 31 L | 1 OTL | 2250 SHA | 2013 SAV | 237 GA | 4.43 GAA | 2 SO | 0.895 SAV% | 73GR
S73 Playoffs | 5 GP | 227 MP | 1 W| 4 L | 0 OTL | 188 SHA | 161 SAV | 27 GA | 7.12 GAA | 0 SO | 0.856 SAV% | 56 GR