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taterswc · 03-13-2024, 10:35 AM

In this deep dive I am going to look at the draftees and see how the first 5 players drafted this season did for their team. I will look at the tpe of the player as expected value and then look at their season stats for actual value. While I won’t be going into team stats too much I will touch on it a little bit because that affects player stats to some extent. Users will not be factored in here. Lets dive!

First pick in the season 75 SMJHL draft was Anna Skovgaard a forward picked by QCC. Anna has 276 TPE which is tied for 14th in the class. For expected value you would expect Anna to be somewhere in the upper end of a class this big. Anna surpassed expectations however, scoring 26 goals and having 39 assists. Anna had 65 points. Anna had the second highest goals, the highest assists and the highest points of all the rookies. To put this in perspective the average points for all drafted rookies was 31.93. QCC was the best team in regular season but even on the best team Anna was wildly successful. I’m sure teams would be happy to get a first pick that performs this well.

Second pick in the draft was Alexa Johansen a forward drafted by STL. Alexa has 279 TPE which ties them for 9th in the class. This puts Alexa’s expected value on the higher end of the class, but STL was also the worst performing team in the regular season. Alexa had 13 goals, 22 assists for a total of 35 points. This is above the average for rookies of 31.93. it is hard to have a lot of points when your team only scored 137 goals in a season. Alexa contributing 25% of their teams goals is pretty good for a rookie. This pick was absolutely value and as STL gets better so will Alexa

Third pick in the draft was Jennifer Huh a forward drafted by KEL. Jennifer has 281 TPE tied for 4th in the class. When you are the top 4 in the class for TPE you expect to have top 4 stats. Except not really because teams matter. There is also only 15 TPE separating the top from the bottom in this list. So most players are evenly matched. In this case Jennifer had 9 goals, and 24 assists for a total of 33 points. Once again this is above the average points for rookies. (31.93) and considering that KEL was the 3rd worst team this season that is pretty good. I think the value here is good. Above average is pretty good when you are on a below average team. As KEL gets better so does Jennifer.

Fourth pick in the draft was James Howlett a forward drafted by GFG. James has 275 TPE in sole possession of 17th place in the class. 17th is still pretty good as its only 9 points lower than the class leader. So for value James should still be on the upper end of the class. James had 20 goal and 33 assists for a total of 53 points. This is my value pick of this list. GFG was 8th place in the regular season and by really about average. But when GFG was average James was not at all. James doubled the goal average for rookies (10.57) and was 5th in points. The 4th pick being 5th in points on a team with just over a 50% win rate is huge. I dare say ROTY worthy pick here.

Fifth pick in the draft was Tank Sharksy a forward drafted by REG then traded to VAN. Tank has 246 TPE putting them 35th in the class. Tank is in the middle of the class so expectation are they would be pretty average maybe even below average because VAN is 2nd to last in regular season. Tank had 12 goals and 24 assists for 36 points. Tank feels like hidden value to me. Being a little over average on a team well below average is exceeding expectations. This pick feels like a surprise at 5 but well worth it for VAN.

So far it seems like all 5 of the picks this season were above average. You would hope so for all 1st round picks but that’s not always true. Only time will tell if these players hold their value

chetib · 03-13-2024, 04:33 PM

Approved @taterswc @CptSquall

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