SMJHL S77 Offseason Roster Analysis - Part 1

In this series, I will be analyzing the roster complexion, Need & Excess for the upcoming season, draft pick capital, and general TPE Standings for each team. This first part will be covering the Anchorage Armada, Carolina Kraken, Colorado Raptors, & Detroit Falcons. Each piece is labeled at the beginning for the Team, their Average TPE per player, and Rank compared to the other teams in the league.

Anchorage Armada – Average 444 TPE Earned (5/16)  – Average 338 Applied (6/16)
    Currently have 14 skaters rostered, with one availability in each grouping of Forwards, Defenseman, and Goalies. Looking at the upcoming S77 SMJHL Draft the Armada could be looking to solidify their team positioning with three draft picks by adding one additional Center, Defenseman, and Goaltender to round out their team at the required 17-player mark. Currently, sitting with 7 players with 425, or just under, applied TPE, and one additional to likely take place during this offseason. The Armada have a very stout defensive core, with the Top-Four all being from the S75 or S76 draft classes.
    Looking at the Armada’s S77 draft class they seemed to have hit on five of their six draft picks. The only player that doesn’t appear to have taken much of a step is Left Winger Jamario Moon (@fonziGG), which leaves the potential door open for a 4th pick from the S78 class or a potential trade to bolster the roster for a Four Star Cup push. Another name that might has the possibility of being on the trading block is Center Squilliam Fancyson (@Kanye33), as the young Jefferson Steelflex (@Steelflex) made tremendous growth and saw about equal playing time to Fancyson yet being a whole year younger. 
    Currently, owners of their own 1st Round Pick, picking from the sixth spot with a 7% chance of winning the 1st Overall Selection, the Armada are cumulatively down one draft pick this season. Not owning their 2nd-round the Armada traded their S77 second-round pick (23rd overall) to the Ottawa Highlanders last season for Ottawa S76 second-round pick (36th overall). In a different trade with Ottawa, Anchorage traded defensemen S76 Jacob Maccabees (who they must have picked up off the waiver wire?) for Newfoundland’s S77 third-round pick (47th overall) and Future Waiver Priority. Ottawa got this pick in an earlier trade from Newfoundland that resulted in a Player swap and the pick for Ottawa. Anchorage’s S77 fourth-round pick was traded to Regina alongside their S76 second-round pick in exchange for Regina’s S75 second-round pick (18th overall). Where the Armada are scheduled to pick at sixth overall, with an 85% chance of happening, there is still a small sliver of hope that they might pick from the first overall position. Should the unthinkable happen and one of the two teams below in the draft order wins the Lottery, 8% chance, the Armada will end up with the seventh overall selection in the S77 SMJHL Entry Draft.
    The Armada are poised to make a splash this draft and potentially put themselves right into the title picture. If they can catch fire at the right moment this season and lean on Sophomore Goalie Adam Joy (@MrMom) they may have what it takes to take it all.

Needs: Goalie
Excess: Defense

Draft Order:
1st Round – 6th Overall (7% chance of being 1st overall)
3rd Round – 39th Overall
3rd Round – 47th Overall (from Newfoundland)
5th Round – 71st Overall
6th Round – 87th Overall
7th Round – 103rd Overall
8th Round – 119th Overall
9th Round – 135th Overall
10th Round – 151st Overall

Carolina Kraken – Average 467 TPE Earned (3/16) – Average 341 TPE Applied (7/16)
    The Carolina Kraken have 13 players currently on their roster for the S77 SMJHL Season, with six forwards, six defensemen, and one Goalie. Given the current roster breakdown, the Kraken are in the market for four players (three Forwards and a Goalie) and potentially a 5th. The Kraken lost their top two centers, Rodrigo Banes and Roger Murdock, as they both will be making their rookie debut in the SHL for the S77 Season. How they will replace these two juggernauts in their offense is yet to be seen, but one might wonder if rookie sensation Swedish Chef (@DrunkenTeddy), might be working on his faceoff drills during his summer skates. Working back through the Kraken’s roster, they have five players at the 425 TPE cap and potentially a sixth to unload this offseason. Five of these six players are the foundation of their Defense and four of the five defensemen are of the S75 Draft Class.
    Carolina made two selections in the S77 SMJHL Entry Draft and picked up a third player off the waiver wire shortly after. While all three showed growth early on in the season, the previously mentioned Swedish Chef and LiMu Emu finished the season showing their compete week after week and into their rookie playoffs. As we discuss their draft picks below, the Kraken certainly look to be in a position to make some big trades, being able to move draft picks and potentially one of those four S75 Defensemen. With those four S75 Defensemen, the Kraken could also look to trade for some assets in the S79 draft where they currently don’t hold any extra picks.
    In the upcoming S77 draft, Carolina has done some leg work ahead of the game, already having one of the deepest earning rosters in the league, the Kraken have 6 draft picks in the first three rounds to work with. Alongside their second-round pick (29th Overall) Carolina, acquired Quebec’s second-round pick (32nd Overall) in a trade with Regina. The Kraken also picked up San Diego’s second-round pick (24th Overall), while dropping back five spots in the S76 draft (to 19th overall from 14th – Selected Limu Emu). In a deal with Maine for the S75 draft, Carolina traded up five spots (to 14th overall from 19th) and added in their S77 third-round pick to make the deal work. On the flip side, Carolina claimed S76 Josh Fewer (@fancey13) off waivers and traded them to Nevada for the Battleborn’s S77 third-round pick (42nd overall). The last pick trade the Kraken delt in was with the Regina Elk during the S74 SMJHL Draft, Carolina trading picks 18 & 20th overall to the Elk and received 24th overall, Regina’s S76 First-Round Pick, and Regina’s S77 Third-Round Pick (43rd Overall). With six picks (one first-round, three second-round, and two third-round) in the first three rounds of the S77 Entry Draft and seven picks (three first-round, three second-round, and one third-round) in the first three rounds of the S78 Entry Draft. Carolina has plenty of paths forward and plenty of assets to do what they please.

Needs: Forwards
Excess: Defense

Draft Order:
1st Round – 13th Overall
2nd Round – 24th Overall (from San Diego)
2nd Round – 29th Overall
2nd Round – 32nd Overall (from Quebec)
3rd Round – 42nd Overall (from Nevada)
3rd Round – 43rd Overall (from Regina)
4th Round – 61st Overall
5th Round – 77th Overall
6th Round – 93rd Overall
7th Round – 109th Overall
8th Round – 125th Overall
9th Round – 141st Overall
10th Round – 157th Overall


Colorado Raptors – Average 433 TPE Earned (7/16) – Average 323 TPE Applied (9/16)
    The Colorado Raptors sit at 12 rosters players, seven forwards, four defensemen, and one goalie, leaving them looking for five players, possibly six. Having lost numerous top players, like Shadow Fenix, Oranj Konhe, and Charlie Slurpe Colorado appears to be a team building through the S77 SHL Draft Class, as they drafted four players in the S76 Entry Draft and signed two free-agent prospects this season. With a grouping of currently five, soon to be six, players over the 425 cap for the S77 SMJHL season and looking to build with the young grouping the Raptors collected last season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of these 425 TPE players being traded.
    Colorado’s S77 SHL Class is up there in comparison to the Armada, with five of those six players, having shown improvement. The Raptors are in a decently rounded spot leaning towards the youth, as we know, and a limited number of experienced forwards. However, these are some well-traveled experienced forwards. We can expect to see the Raptors draft a goalie this offseason to begin to develop as their current start, Herman Stahl (@Zema), is likely in their final year with the Raptors. On the backend the Raptors are in need of two more defensemen and depending on who they take with their first-round selection, could see second-line defenseman minutes as Hashbrown O’Fink (@negs77) is just a couple of steps ahead of some of the top-end defensemen in the S78 SHL Rookie class. The forward grouping will be led by likely the veteran line of Switchbang-La Sombra-McExplosion (@leviadan, @Akoustique & @micool132), who we can expect to see get a lot of minutes even strength, and on special teams. The Raptors have a guaranteed two forward roster spots open with the potential of a third as Zhen Serkr (@bjornserkr) is starting to fall behind their draft classmates of Light III, McPickle, & Samedi (@Smirnov Light, @Belmont, & @Baron).
    The Raptors have positive draft capital this season as they will be taking all of their own picks, along with Kelowna’s second-round selection. In the trade with Kelowna, Colorado sent off their S76 first-round pick (16th Overall) to Kelowna in exchange for Kelowna's S76 second-round pick (25th Overall - Raw Cheese McPickle), Kelowna’s S77 second-round pick (17th Overall), and Kelowna’s S79 fourth-round pick. Rolling off their great draft class from last season, we could see the Raptors make a splash in the offseason trade market whether it’s before the draft to collect more draft assets for the upcoming draft or to trade for a younger player who has already shown that they have the grit and compete to perform at this level. Colorado is a team that is still a season or two out from making a deep run in the SMJHL Four-Star Cup Playoffs but could be lethal in S78 or S79.

Needs: Yes
Excess: S77 Forwards

Draft Picks:
1st Round – 12th Overall
2nd Round – 17th Overall (from Kelowna)
2nd Round – 28th Overall
3rd Round – 44th Overall
4th Round – 60th Overall
5th Round – 76th Overall
6th Round – 92nd Overall
7th Round – 108th Overall
8th Round – 124th Overall
9th Round – 140th Overall
10th Round – 156th Overall

Detroit Falcons – Average 392 TPE Earned (10/16) – Average 319 TPE Applied (11/16)
    The Detroit Falcons are in a very similar situation to the Colorado Raptors, however just more skewed to the youth movement. Currently rostering 13 players, eight forwards, three defensemen, and two goalies, the Detroit Falcons are losing some vital pieces to their defense and will need to replace that most likely via the draft. The first team in our review that has a backup goalie, the Flacons have four 425 TPE players rostered, and this will likely be their maximum for the remainder of the season as we mentioned they are a young team and this will very likely be a building season.
    Detroit made seven selections in the first three rounds of the S76 SMJHL Entry Draft and it appears that six of the seven are still active with two players, Roquefotrt Cotswald defenseman and Theo Kane Winger (@roquefort & @NONAME), already at the 350 TPE cap for the season and a few more to follow here shortly. Looking to fill in three defensemen and one forward, the Falcons roster appears they will only need to acquire four players in the draft this offseason, but they could potentially get a fifth depending on what sort of shape Rock Solid (@Matticus) appears back in training camp after the Summer. If I had to make a guess the Falcons would likely draft the best available defensemen when their first selection comes to turn, as Detroit will be filling top-four defenseman minutes with a rookie. This could potentially include some special teams on the PK and even potentially second-line PP minutes. Whoever the Falcons do end up selecting, you can bet they will garner a lot of minutes, and maybe some eyes from the SHL scouts.
    The S77 SMJHL Entry Draft is right around the corner, however, first, we will need to find out where the Falcons will be drafting from. With a 9% chance of the first overall selection, the Falcons will likely be making their first pick from the five-hole with a 76% chance of landing this pick. Should the Armada, Tidal, or Elk win the draft lottery the Detroit Falcons would be the sixth selection. Not having made any trades that resulted in gaining or losing a draft pick for this offseason, in each round after the first, the Detroit Falcons will be at the sixth spot to select.

Needs: Defense
Excess: S77 Forwards

Draft Picks:
1st Round – 5th Overall (9% chance of the 1st Overall)
2nd Round – 22nd Overall
3rd Round – 48th Overall
4th Round – 64th Overall
5th Round – 80th Overall
6th Round – 96th Overall
7th Round – 112th Overall
8th Round – 128th Overall
9th Round – 144th Overall
10th Round – 160th Overall

*Disclaimer: I have no insight to the Locker Rooms or General Managers, this is all purely from my perspective looking through Rosters, the Pick Tracker, and Game Index. If you notice any errors with the draft picks please let me know.