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Popol · 07-22-2024, 04:08 PM

Introduction and Lessons learned.

After being a part of one, I've been thinking about the largest upsets that have occurred in the SMJHL history. While looking at the all the season we have the index, I made a few discoveries that I found interesting and that I wanted to share before I get to my top 10.

Upsets are hard and rare. From season 77 to 53, which covers 24 seasons, I counted approximately 13 large upsets out of hundreds of series. In the vast majority, teams that are the top of the standings will beat the teams in the bottom of the standings even more than in the NHL or other IRL leagues. So the next time your J team finishes second to last in the standings and is playing against a top team, maybe reconsider before betting all your money on an upset.

FHM is not as random as you think it is. We often hear about how the sim we use is simply random and just spews out numbers no matter the team, well this is completely false. With top teams consistently beating bad teams easily, except in rare occasions, we know the sim engine is not simply pressing ‘’random’’ to see who wins.

Upsets normally happen in round 1 and rarely in round 2. Out of the large 13 upsets that I found, 10 were in the first round and 3 were in the 2nd round. It never happened that a lower standings team did an upset in round 3 or in the finals.

Teams that do an upset often get destroyed in the next round. Proof that the upset was very lucky, it wasn’t rare for a team to lose the next round 4-0 against another good team when they won that first matchup. The tactics that proved to be so efficient to cause the surprise normally doesn’t work against another teams.

If you’re not in the top 2-3 teams at the end of the season, it’s almost impossible to win the cup. This lesson was the one that hurt the most. In most seasons, the top team or the 2nd place won the cup. If you believe in the philosophy ‘’anything can happen in the playoffs’’ well throw that in the garbage, because that’s not the case in the SHL. A team that finished in the bottom of the standings never has, and probably never will, win the cup.

Most importantly, if you are a part of an upset, it’s important to celebrate it. Large upsets are so rare, it’s important to celebrate them accordingly. Go crazy in the locker room, scream on VC with your CoGM, eat that piece of cake your wife told you not to, run shirtless in the streets, do whatever you can, but enjoy it: it will probably never happen to you ever again.

TOP 10

10. Yukon beat Vancouver 4-1 in season 72

Difference in points: 22 points.
Standings:
Vancouver: 2nd
Yukon: 8th

We start off this ranking with an upset in the first round of the season 72. After finishing in the 2nd place, the Whalers had gotten a first round bye. Yukon, right out of beating Anchorage in game 7 in the first round had an easy time against Vancouver winning this series in 5 games. Yukon went on a Cinderella run losing in 7 games in the semi-finales against the powerful Timbers. In only 19 games in those playoffs, the Malamutes had 3 players reach 30 points: Theodore Svatos (@HabsFanFromOntario), Jordan Tanner (@jtanner20) and Grisha Uskjal (@Estovich).

9. Vancouver beat Regina 4-3 in season 76

Difference in points: 27 points.
Standings:
Regina: 6th
Vancouver: 12th

The second most recent upset on this list, Vancouver had finished the season with 57 points compared to 84 for Regina. In overtime of game 7, Robo Sven (@steveoiscool) scored the game winning goal which confirmed the astonishing victory for the Whalers. Superstar center Bean Beanman Jr (@Seymour) had just finished the season with 90 points, 4th best in the league, and he could not prevent this loss against Regina. Regina had finished the season with a +/- of 69(nice) against Vancouver -38, we're talking here of a difference of 107 goals!

8. Nevada beat Regina 4-2 in season 75

Difference in points: 29 points.
Standings:
Regina: 5th
Nevada: 11th

In the last season before the expansion, Regina was once again on the wrong side of history with this loss to Nevada, losing 4-2 in the first round. It's important to understand the context of season 75, out of 14 teams, there were only 4 teams with a negative +/-, but boy were they bad. The four of them were under -130 with Nevada at -147. These 4 teams were expected to all get destroyed in the first round, but to the surprise of everyone, Nevada pulled the upset against 5th place Regina. Their goaltender Just Perfection (@RealDealer) was an important part of those playoffs finishing with a .918 save percentage.

7. Carolina beat Maine 4-2 in season 64

Difference in points: 31 points.
Standings:
Maine: 6th
Carolina: 11th

First upset on this list with a point difference of over 30 points, Carolina surprised a lot of people when winning 4-2 in the first round of season 64. Finishing 4th last in the regular season, the Kraken had no offensive stars and only a single player with a GR of over 70, Marek Skoda. The Timbers had been a powerful team, scoring 237 goals (compared to 166 for Carolina) in the regular season. While maybe not being a team that aspired the win the cup, expectations were still to make a run and get to the 2nd or 3rd round. The fans of Carolina can thank the goalie Base Pack (@slothfacekilla) who left in only a total of 3 goals in the last 3 games to seal the series.

6. Yukon beat Colorado 4-0 in season 70

Difference in points: 26 points.
Standings:
Colorado: 2nd
Yukon: 8th

While the point difference between the two teams in the regular season wasn't as big as the previous ranked entries, you have to consider that Colorado had a very impressive 95 points and were very powerful with two superstar, Erik Bergmark (@NYR73) and Adrian O'Rugg (@Ruggsy) who both had scored 40 goals and each finished the season with 93 points. Yukon was an average team at best and had no point per game player, Colorado were expecting to easily win this series in this 2nd round of the playoff, but the opposite happened. Not only did Yukon win, but did it in 4 little games. This is the only series that ended in 4 games on this list. Many players in this upset were also present for the upset against Vancouver in season 72 (see 10th ranked).

5. Newfoundland beat Maine 4-1 in season 57

Difference in points: 30 points.
Standings:
Maine: 3rd
Newfoundland: 12th

Oldest entry on this list, I found it important to recognize this upset even though most people involved are no longer in the SHL. Newfoundland had finished LAST in the standings and were considered the worst team of the league with a low total of 22 wins in 66 games. On the other side, you had the powerful Timber had a total of 79 points, 37 wins. The Gods of the SHL brushed off the regular season stats and gave an easy win to the Berserkers.

4. Detroit beat Carolina 4-2 in season 63

Difference in points: 35 points.
Standings:
Carolina: 6th
Detroit: 12th

With 44 points in the regular season (only 20 wins), this had been a rough season for Detroit fans. They were about to face a good Kraken team in the playoffs on powerful players like Atticus Hale and Patya Perevalov (@natedoeshockey). Everyone was stunned when the Falcons defeated the Kraken in 6 games. Evert Jansson, their goaltender, stole the show during the playoffs with a .934 save percentage.

3. Great Falls beat Anchorage 4-3 in season 73

Difference in points: 36 points.
Standings:
Anchorage: 3rd
Great Falls: 14th

As we enter the top 3, we get into upsets that are unbelievable and that should of never happened. Something went wrong, surely the favorites to win got sick that week? Or the equipment manager forgot to pack his players skates? Great Falls had finished last in the standings. In 33 away games, they had won 6. They were by far the worse team to score goals, with only 166 goals during the whole season, the 2nd worse team in the league had 201. They just weren't able to pucks into the net and they had only two players who had scored more than 20 goals, Andrew Latreille and Jae-ik Barron (@charlieconway). On the other side of the ice, not only could they score, but Anchorage could also keep the puck out of their net. They had only let in 219 goals during the regular season (2nd best in the league). This series was about to end quickly, have a lot of goals scored, but not many by Great Falls. Jospeh Reed (@Reedy0rNot) had just finished the season with 89 points for the Armada. But the unforeseen happened, the Grizzlies stole the series 7 games. In game 7, they scored 6 goals on only 21 shots and none were on the power play!

2. Newfoundland beat Yukon 4-3 in season 66

Difference in points: 44 points.
Standings:
Yukon: 4th
Newfoundland: 12th

Some may even say this deserves the top spot. This is the largest upset in modern history when looking only at the difference in points during the regular season, an impressive 44 points. Newfoundland had a mere 21 wins in the regular sesaon, they had let in 274 goals, that's an average of 4.15 each game while only scoring 2.9. Most fans were already looking at the draft to see who would be available to improve the team. They had a few bright spots, goal scorer AJ Williams had scored 34 goals and 4th player AlexaDemi had 64 points. On the opposite side, it was another story. Yukon had just finished the season with 45 wins. Had only let in 183 goals and had scored 269. They were composed of many stars with 5 players who had over 60 points and 4 players with more than 30 goals. More impressive, among them was 3 players with 84 points or more. Those 3 players formed the first line, probably the best line in the league. Oles Kobliska (@The__Y-man__100), Reed Kobo (@Toivo) and Billy Blazes were feared by all. Oh boy we're we in for a surprise. Leading the series 3-2, Yukon was looking to wrap up the series in Newfoundland. Shockingly, off of 2 goals of AJ Williams, the game went into overtime and Matsmith Soderberg-Teremblay (@SDCore) wasted no time to score, after only a minute in OT, and force a game 7. The Malamutes were weakened and were never able to bounce back. In game 7, Newfoundland came out strong and scored 5 goals in the first period to win the game 7-2 on only 24 shots. Nina Tucker (@ByrdeMan) faced 40 shots that night and only let in 2 goals. Of the greatest upsets of all time in the SMJHL.

1. St-Louis beat Nevada 4-1 in season 77

Difference in points: 41 points.
Standings:
Nevada: 2nd
St-Louis: 15th

I know what some of you will say: "you're biased Popol! You were a part of this team!" or maybe "this is recency bias, this just happened". Wait, wait. Please allow me to explain the greatest upset of the modern area in the SMJHL. Some rumors even say this is what caused the GM to retire. Let's start from the beginning. St-Louis have been bad, or should I say, horrible, since they won their cup in 72. The last time they were not a part of the last two teams in the standings at the end of the season was in season 73, 5 seasons ago! This season, the team finished with 22 wins. Allowing 302 goals, nothing worked. The team couldn't score and couldn't stop the goals from going into their net. Nevada on the other hand had just scored 303 goals. They had 5 players who finished with more than 70 points and two, Literally Wizard (@baz) and Connor Simard (@Noname99), who had over 80 points. Nevada should of destroyed St-Louis, but did the opposite, they lost in 5 quick games. In unbelievable fashion, Nevada was no match for Saint-Louis who pulled it off.

Crazy storyline, one of the players in St-Louis was so mad that his team won that he retired the same day. That must be a first in SHL history. What made even it crazier was the fact that that this player was the one who scored the game winning goal , in overtime, to seal the series.

David you may hate us, but you will always have a special place in our hearts.
[Image: 5yPNHn4.png]

***jaypc8237*** · 07-22-2024, 04:13 PM

New SMJHL Media. Jay no reaction. Popol Media. Jay Happy. Popol History Media. Jay super duper happy.

Great read Popol! Scarecrows

slothfacekilla · 07-22-2024, 04:42 PM

Very cool! Saw the ping and what the title was and I was scared this was going to be a sad thing.

***sköldpaddor*** · 07-22-2024, 04:47 PM

I'm so happy to have been able to contribute to this incredible part of history

***sköldpaddor*** · 07-22-2024, 04:49 PM

but also, saying this is what "caused me to retire" is straight bullshit - I had already put in my notice with HO and they just didn't post the hiring until after the series was over lol. I don't know if this is a joke or what, I realize it's possible it might be, but I was GM of that team for eighteen seasons, I weathered a storm of a completely inactive GMing partner I had no power to fire, and I think it's a little disrespectful to imply that I would just abandon the team I poured my heart and soul into for three real life years because we had a playoff series go wrong.

***cake307*** · 07-22-2024, 04:50 PM

You will always be remembered in STL, David, one way or another...

Fluw · 07-22-2024, 05:18 PM

Record of 2-1. Causing 2 upsets, and being upset once in a big fashion. I think they cancel out right?

***Ohtaay*** · 07-22-2024, 05:19 PM

Nice write up!

***RAmenAmen*** · 07-22-2024, 05:27 PM

Oh thank god I'm not on this list

***boom*** · 07-22-2024, 05:31 PM

07-22-2024, 05:27 PMRAmenAmen Wrote: Oh thank god I'm not on this list

I wasn’t the GM, but I almost put the Falcons on this list with what would’ve been a 47-point upset lmao. FHM goaltending classic.

#5 was also right in the middle of the stretch where Maine was Newfoundland’s personal chew toy come playoff time (6 straight years being eliminated by NL and 11 straight seasons where they either lost to NL or didn’t make the playoffs).