Deep Dive #2: Preliminary SHL S79 Draft Scouting
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icewindoo
Registered Senior Member
One quarter of S78 has been completed. Teams and players are just starting to learn what they are capable of. SMJHL rookies are just 16 games or so into their professional career. What better time to start looking ahead to next year's draft?
Here follows my list of the top ten prospects eligible for the S79 SHL draft. There are three main criteria that make up this evaluation, all pure numbers: TPE earned so far this season (as reported by the portal), current total applied TPE, and in-game results (*) from the first quarter of the current (S78) SMJHL season. I will note that all of the players in this list (including those outside of the top ten) are very close; there's really not much to choose among these players, and a lot can change in the next six weeks. 1. Javelin Bodine - RD - ANC Earned TPE: 83 Applied TPE: 238 In-game Contribution: 86 SMJHL Draft: 1st round, 3rd overall With a rookie league-best combination of earned and applied TPE, Bodine is part of a turn-around Anchorage team that has jumped from 14th place in S77 to 2nd overall in S78 so far. Bodine sits second in rookie D scoring with 14 points in 16 games. 2. Grindle Waters-Johnson - LW - GFG Earned TPE: 75 Applied TPE: 241 In-game Contribution: 67 SMJHL Draft: 1st round, 5th overall Despite less than 18 minutes of ice time per game, Waters-Johnson is leading his team in goals, with 9 in 17 games, which is also tops among all rookies. The Japanese forward also has a league-high 241 applied TPE. 3. Dejana Kaptina - C - QCC Earned TPE: 81 Applied TPE: 233 In-game Contribution: 72 SMJHL Draft: 1st round, 12th overall Kaptina's 16 points are good for 3rd overall among rookies. She has been called on to play all roles for the Citadelles this season, and has shown she's up to the task. 4. Jason Bourne - RW - NL Earned TPE: 71 Applied TPE: 241 In-game Contribution: 79 SMJHL Draft: 1st round, 4th overall Like many of the rookies on this list, Bourne doesn't get much ice time, but he still managed 14 points for fourth-best on the Berserkers. He is also responsible defensively, with a +8 plus/minus rating. 5. Dieter Frühstück - RD - ANC Earned TPE: 84 Applied TPE: 228 In-game Contribution: 69 SMJHL Draft: 1st round, 14th overall Frühstück is a prototypical stay-at-home defender who leads the entire league in blocked shots. His offensive skills are nothing to be scoffed at either, as he has chipped in seven assists in 16 games. 6. Christina Fantobens - LW - YUM Earned TPE: 83 Applied TPE: 238 In-game Contribution: 30 SMJHL Draft: 2nd round, 26th overall Tied for rookie league lead in TPE earning and applying, Fantobens has shown that no-one works harder than her. Her 6 PP points is tops among rookies. Fantobens is part of a Malamutes squad that has jumped ten places in the standings from last season to now, and she is playing a big part in that. 7. Katharina Rosenthal - G - NL Earned TPE: 83 Applied TPE: 235 In-game Contribution: 40 SMJHL Draft: 2nd round, 21st overall Not many rookie goalies see significant ice time, but Rosenthal has been given the reigns and is steering NL to victory. Her total of 8 wins is tied for league lead among all goalies, not just the rookies. 8. Hughes Incorporated - LW - ANC Earned TPE: 71 Applied TPE: 235 In-game Contribution: 83 SMJHL Draft: 3rd round, 36th overall The third Anchorage player on this list, Incorporated has made the most of his limited ice time. Despite zero PP or PK time, he has managed 13 points in 16 games, and leads the entire team and all rookies in plus/minus at +16. 9. Badger Hennessy - C - NBB Earned TPE: 78 Applied TPE: 226 In-game Contribution: 88 SMJHL Draft: 3rd round, 47th overall With 20 points in 17 games, Hennessy leads all rookies in scoring. Being on a high-scoring Nevada team doesn't hurt, but no other player has raised his or her draft stock this much during the first quarter of the season. 10. Normand Marineau - C - COL Earned TPE: 75 Applied TPE: 240 In-game Contribution: 42 SMJHL Draft: 2nd round, 17th overall A natural playmaker, Marineau is part of a solid Colorado team that sits fifth overall. While not breaking any records so far in his first season, he contributes at both ends of the ice and is already an above-average face-off man. Honourable Mentions: Hotdog Lunch, Barcus Juneau, Darby Reznor (*) As in some of my previous posts, the in-game results come from the Player Contribution model first described in this post.
ghamss
SMJHL HO Some Guy Living in Mountain Time
I enjoyed reading this. Hope you're able to update the list a few more times throughout the season.
icewindoo
Registered Senior Member
icewindoo
Registered Senior Member 08-21-2024, 01:08 PMghamss Wrote: I enjoyed reading this. Hope you're able to update the list a few more times throughout the season. I'm not doing a whole media thing this time, but here are my rankings half-way through the season: 1. Grindle Waters-Johnson - LW - GFG Earned TPE: 86 Applied TPE: 253 Contribution: 79 2. Dieter Frühstück - RD - ANC Earned TPE: 95 Applied TPE: 242 Contribution: 72 3. Barcus Juneau - RD - ANC Earned TPE: 82 Applied TPE: 247 Contribution: 92 4. Javelin Bodine - RD - ANC Earned TPE: 93 Applied TPE: 238 Contribution: 79 5. Badger Hennessy - C - NBB Earned TPE: 86 Applied TPE: 240 Contribution: 93 6. Christina Fantobens - LW - YUM Earned TPE: 93 Applied TPE: 248 Contribution: 42 7. Katharina Rosenthal - G - NL Earned TPE: 94 Applied TPE: 235 Contribution: 76 8. Abbe Wass - LD - ANC Earned TPE: 79 Applied TPE: 246 Contribution: 88 9. Jacob Marsh - LW - NL Earned TPE: 87 Applied TPE: 239 Contribution: 72 10. Teddy Bloos - C - TBW Earned TPE: 92 Applied TPE: 247 Contribution: 32 Honourable Mentions: Master Empoleon, Chuck Lumbermouth, Darby Reznor And here's some more detail of the Player Contribution part:
icewindoo
Registered Senior Member
For the sake of posterity, here's my final interim draft ranking. This update adds a financial element based on the user's bank account balance.
1. Dieter Frühstück - RD - ANC Earned TPE: 104 Applied TPE: 254 Contribution: 29 Spending Power: 36 2. Hip Hurts - LD - NBB Earned TPE: 93 Applied TPE: 262 Contribution: 19 Spending Power: 37 3. Javelin Bodine - RD - ANC Earned TPE: 102 Applied TPE: 238 Contribution: 28 Spending Power: 41 4. Katharina Rosenthal - G - NL Earned TPE: 103 Applied TPE: 250 Contribution: 22 Spending Power: 33 5. Dejana Kaptina - C - QCC Earned TPE: 100 Applied TPE: 255 Contribution: 15 Spending Power: 35 6. Teddy Bloos - C - TBW Earned TPE: 97 Applied TPE: 252 Contribution: 13 Spending Power: 39 7. QCCBOT4 - G - QCC Earned TPE: 99 Applied TPE: 241 Contribution: 10 Spending Power: 51 8. Grindle Waters-Johnson - LW - GFG Earned TPE: 94 Applied TPE: 253 Contribution: 21 Spending Power: 32 9. Hamper Linthome - C - NL Earned TPE: 100 Applied TPE: 253 Contribution: 4 Spending Power: 43 10. Normand Marineau - C - COL Earned TPE: 94 Applied TPE: 257 Contribution: 12 Spending Power: 36 Honourable Mention: Barcus Juneau, Jason Bourne, Kenneth Lind |
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