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Muerto · 02-11-2025, 06:58 PM

S81 Team Roster TPE Breakdown

hello SHL and welcome to my yearly preseason look at all the teams as we try and predict how each team will do. With the Predictions Point Task already up, everyone is making their best guesses but we are here to help with this scientifically proven formula which makes all the guesswork unnecessary! Follow this handy guide to maximum TPE and ignore the fact that I was totally wrong about half the teams last year! 60% of the time it works every time!

The methodology is predicated on the premise that the surest predictor of regular season results is the total team TPE. Generally speaking Forwards > Defense > Goaltending. Also, it is broken down by division because that's what matters most for the regular season predictions. Also, the TPE totals are listed in descending order, and not by position played. Very few teams will run their lines exactly like this but it gives a broader look at where teams stand.

Factors such as roles/deployment or team tactics and strategies are not really taken into account. While these things do make a difference, I would argue that it is to a lesser extent than the TPE totals, and is more important in the playoffs than in the regular season. Chemistry is important in FHM - if all other things were equal, I would say the older team with players who played together for a long time would have the advantage over a team randomly assembled of players who had never played together.

Without further ado, let's look at each division.

PACIFIC DIVISION

pride

San Francisco Pride pride

1882 1818 1813
1728 1691 1662
1620 1597 1475

1715 1666
1570 1516
1193 1034

1134 213

The Pride have been the ... well, pride of the Pacific for several seasons now, culminating in back to back Challenge Cup Championships. They come into S81 looking to make it a threepeat and I gotta tell ya, they have a real chance to make it happen.
The bulk of their players are in the S68 - S71 draft range, which means regression stings a little but it's just a flesh wound at this point, they are still fighting it off pretty well. They have added a few new players but the core is still mostly intact. And even with that regression, they still roll out 3 very good lines that could legitimately all be first line players so they have lots of options in creating lines and matchups.
I would say they are the easy favorites to come out of the West, and only a couple teams from the East do I believe could have a chance to stop them.

Prediction: 48 - 50 wins

Seattle Argonauts

1894 1764 1727
1718 1706 1526
1145 971 927

1629 1422
1363 1343
1190 1177

1296 846

The Argonauts had a real jump last season, surprising many by finishing 2nd in a very tight divisional race. This season they need to prove that it was not a fluke, and that they are a legitimate team ready to enter their contending window. None of their players regressed from last season so they are still not at their peak, but they are no longer saying 'wait until next year!'
They have a very strong top 6 forwards who have all gained a big amount of TPE over last season - in fact, they are the only team to have 5 forwards currently over 1700 TPE. The defense and goaltending has improved as well so even the addition of 2 rookies on the 3rd line should not keep them from maintaining their spot that they claimed last season.

Prediction 38-40 wins

Los Angeles Panthers

1776 1637 1589
1572 1500 1454
1371 1147 1117

1809 1749
1734 1521
1451 1309

1581 462

The Panthers made some moves this offseason with some major trade and free agent acquisitions to bolster a lineup that was facing some serious regression. They added some much needed youth to inject some energy into a lineup which still has something to say before we write them off.
The forward depth is great, the defense is the best in the division, strong goaltending ... there really isn't any area of weakness apart from the need to build some chemistry with the new players. They have a lot of vets who are no strangers to winning games, so I expect they will be in the race for sure.

prediction: 38-40 wins

Dragons

Calgary Dragons Dragons

1835 1735 1575
1526 1364 1270
1261 1186 763

1603 1506
1492 1482
1358 1056

1346 437

I'm placing the Dragons here but only because their top 6 forwards are a bit behind the teams ahead of them, but they
have a really strong team. Honestly this division you could swap 2/3/4 in any order, and whoever finishes 4th will probably be happy because I reckon they will get the wildcard crossover into the Central which as we shall see in the next segment, is relatively weaker.
They have a good balance of veterans and youth in their mix and the regression they did face isn't that harsh. They will
be relying on some young superstars to really have breakout seasons to increase their scoring, which was middle of the pack last season.
Their defense and goaltending was their strength last season and it is just as good if not better. They had stretches of dominance last season but also some stretches of losing streaks, so if they can be a little more consistent I wouldn't be surprised to see them closer to the top.

Prediction 37-39 wins

Edmonton Blizzard

1512 1349 1324
1162 1147 978
976 439

1166 1123
963 781
732 636 631

864 752

The rebuild in Edmonton marches along, and the future bodes well. The roster is very young and still a few seasons away
from being a threat, but somehow they always seem to be a little bit better than I think they will. Looks like they need
to do a little roster shuffling as they currently have 1 too many defense and 1 too few forwards.
They will do their best to be annoying and steal wins away from other teams, but when you look at the rest of the division I just don't think they can really match up but I hope they have fun and try hard.

Prediction : 15-17 wins

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CENTRAL DIVISION

New Orleans Specters

1550 1510 1359
1298 1237 1191
1132 1022 796

1712 1596
1509 1488
1278 957

1870 219

The Spooky Team finally broke the barrier last season and finished in first place in the division, and sixth in the league. It was a long time coming for NOLA as they have had a strong team for several seasons now but just couldn't have that big season.
Their biggest strength for several seasons now has been their goaltending and team defense - last season they were 3rd overall in fewest goals against. While the defense TPE has declined a bit, it is still strong.
On the forward side, they have improved overall and while the top line might not have the highest TPE they are a veteran team and experience should give them the edge to take the division again.

Prediction : 36-38 wins

Chicago Syndicate

1913 1911 1677
1553 1325 1318
1159 932 832

1915 1513
1344 1114
943 919

1124 994

With 3 of the highest TPE players in the entire league the Syndicate have some weapons that are ready to wreak some havoc on the league. The timing of their rebuild is proving to be fortuitous as they are coming into their own just as other teams in the division are starting to retool their own teams.
When you compare this season's roster to last season's, every single spot has improved, whether it be from drafted players continuing to grow, or new players acquired to give them a boost. If they can get some increased goal scoring and turn some of their tight OTL/SOL from last season into W's, they can be a winning team and look forward to true contention being just on the horizon.

Prediction : 34-36 wins

Texas Renegades

1536 1490 1248
1236 1051 925
912 902 884

1623 1456
1038 1000
999 878

1356 905

The Renegades were the dominant team of this division for many seasons. Even though they did not win the division
last year they had a good showing in the playoffs. But either way the writing was on the wall, and the team is in a look to youth movement.
The top players are veterans who will be tasked with sheltering a lot of still-developing players. About a third of the players are from S76 - S78 draft seasons, so they have a future core they will be looking to build around.
In the meantime they are still good enough to be a playoff team and that's where they are always dangerous.

Prediction : 32-34 wins

Aurora

Winnipeg Aurora Aurora

1758 1207 1159
1156 1112 1106
964 867 828

1809 1725
984 965
908 808

1766 1068

Lots of young and significantly improved players on this team, the Aurora also made some moves to bring in
some big guns. They will be relying on their top guys to hold the fort while their young players continue to develop
chemistry.
Last season's huge rookie contingency has been making big strides in TPE gains so they will have to try and avoid any sort of sophomore slump. They would like to see some increased goal scoring I'm sure but the trajectory is trending up for this team.

Prediction : 26-28 wins

Minnesota Monarchs

1316 1150 990
877 833 741
689 686 656

1028 935
744 711
695 563

834 539

If you want to say something positive about this team, it's that they have a really deep prospect pool. Obviously
they are all-in on a rebuild and the squad on the ice isn't going to win a lot of games. Embrace the tank.

Prediction : 6-8 wins

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ATLANTIC DIVISION

Inferno

Atlanta Inferno Inferno

1939 1683 1669
1559 1551 1532
1484 1354 784

1946 1682
1647 1470
1330 1325

1352 995 993

The Inferno had a huge season in S80 led by scoring leader and my personal fantasy savior Jae-Ik Barron. If he can even come close to matching his totals from last season, the Inferno will win games on his back. But they aren't by any stretch just a one-player team.
They have a lot of scoring depth and an incredible defensive roster. Overall they have improved their TPE standing from
last season so I don't think they will take a step back at all.

Prediction : 48-50 wins

Tampa Bay Barracuda

1745 1741 1688
1645 1574 1363
1345 1327 924

1973 1953
1914 1748
1215 1176 1142

1765 454

Good luck trying to score against this team, they have assembled an absolutely steel shield of a defensive group here.
And their forward group is also super strong. While some of their recent top players are falling down the depth chart a bit, overall they have gained more TPE than they've lost over last season so they will be dangerous right across the board.
They made it to the finals last season but this season they want it all, and I wouldn't bet against them.

Prediction : 46 - 48 wins

Forge

Philadelphia Forge Forge

1832 1755 1740
1675 1645 1492
1315 1140 992

1610 1605
1487 1456
1204 930

1199 802

Right along with the prior two teams is another deep team. The Forge had for them a bit of a down year in S80 but they were one of the more dangerous teams in the 2nd half. The forwards have gained TPE over last season, but the defense and goaltending has dropped a bit.
They can put out a top 2 lines which can compete against just about anybody. They have some younger players but the top TPE guys are just hitting their peak to take the load of the regressing players. The defense and goaltending is not bad but is far enough behind the top teams that it might keep them from competing for the division title.

Prediction : 37-39 wins

Rage

Manhattan Rage Rage

1951 1741 1429
1381 1355 1173
1072 1052 816

1937 1584
1517 1141
920 719

1288 838

The Rage got off to a really hot start last season, even in first place at one point. But they fell off in the second half
a bit to narrowly finish 3rd in the division. It will be interesting to see if they can improve on that - the forward group has overall improved in TPE but the defense and goaltending has overall declined a bit. The second and third lines especially are notably weaker than the other teams ahead of them in this division.
But even if they do end up here, again you'd have to think a crossover into the Northeast division would not be a terrible place to land.

Prediction : 34-36 wins

Platoon

Baltimore Platoon Platoon

1586 1552 1292
1290 1282 1237
1058 959 810

1752 1299
1113 1062
876 427

1043 518

The dreaded regression monster has taken its toll on the Platoon, they fought bravely but their soldiers must rest now.
They've taken a step back from their TPE counts pretty much across the board as they only have 4 players who didn't regress from last season.
Part of that is due to acquiring a lot of picks this last draft, and their prospect pool is very intriguing. They are still good enough to win their share of games and could also be looking at a wildcard spot in the playoffs.

Prediction : 30-32 wins

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Northeast Division

New England Wolfpack

1886 1822 1669
1614 1494 1461
1360 1150 972

1700 1630
1613 1518
1342 1111

1335 578

After an unlucky down year in S80, the Wolfpack are on the prowl again looking to reclaim their spot atop this division.
The team has made overall gains in TPE in all areas but especially on defense and goaltending, so they should be able to cut down that brutal goals against of last year.
There aren't any glaring weaknesses and they have the top players to carry them to wins. I believe last season was an aberration and they will be a dangerous opponent once again.

Prediction 35-37 wins

Montreal Patriotes

1946 1905 1904
1670 1627 1608
1459 1336 1155

1630 1551
1542 1365
1345 1049

1565 170

I'm tempted to put MTL first because look at that roster, they have actually the best top line in the league by TPE, with 3 1900+ TPE guys and then their second and third lines are also very strong. Defense is good, goaltending is good ...

They can't possibly miss the playoffs this year, right? ... right?

Prediction : 18-50 wins

Stars

Toronto North Stars Stars

1672 1622 1422
1243 1050 1015
1010 947 751

1885 1200
861 632
513 392

961 420

Doing what they can to reassemble a roster which was decimated by salary cap issues, the North Stars do have a top-heavy team with some very good players on their top line. But it falls off quite drastically after that to the point where the third line, especially the defense, is concerning.
They surprised a bit last year with a late surge and a cinderella playoff run but I would be surprised to see them near the top this season.

Prediction : 26-28 wins

Buffalo Stampede

1628 1596 1279
1162 990 918
857 709 513

1910 1476
1297 1233
1177 955

1118 915

A top line taking another regression hit, 5 forwards under 1K TPE, a superstud defenseman and a mid-TPE goalie ...

They can't possibly win this division again, right? ... right?

Prediction : 18-50 wins

Hamilton Steelhawks

1988 1926 1635
1364 922 786
748 739 501

1322 1016
948 927
703 650

792 740

Led by some very high TPE players on the top forward line, the Hawks can catch teams by surprise now and then and put up some gaudy numbers. But overall the TPE count for forwards has dropped, and the defense hasn't significantly improved.
They went big in the last 2 drafts and have a whole lot of prospects they will be looking to for the future.

Prediction : 14-16 wins

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Good luck and have fun!