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By-Tor · 04-29-2025, 01:31 PM

By-Tor's Quest for 21:12

The real ones out there know the correlation between my site username and the number 2112. If you are not familiar with the correlation, read up on it.

Marcel Beck joined the league 24 seasons ago and has played in the SHL for 20 seasons. Playing for 20 seasons was not something I expected to do, and the amount of time on ice Beck accumulated was not something I was watching until very recently. I realized a season or two ago that my player, Marcel Beck, has the opportunity to finish his career serendipitously averaging exactly 21:12 of ice time over 20 seasons.

Unfortunately, Beck currently sits at 21:14 ATOI in his regular season career at the time this article was written, 22 games into S82. With his current level of third pair time on ice, hitting 21:12 for regular season just won't happen. However, Beck has had a very prestigious playoff career that floats his numbers a bit higher and revives the opportunity for a 21:12 finish if you include regular season AND playoff statistics. Which is really as it should be - a full career in its entirety.

Over the course of his 19.33 and counting regular seasons, Beck has mostly skated between 20 and 23 minutes per game. It's only until his last two seasons that his ATOI dropped off.

[Image: NHXHyJF.png]

As for playoffs, Beck has been a pretty significant work horse, logging a number of postseasons over 22 minutes, but still staying in that 20 - 23 minute range. His rookie season was the only season that he missed the playoffs, and it's looking likely (barring crazy stuff) that Winnipeg makes the playoffs again in S82. Not including a potential S82, Beck has played 218 games in the postseason (3rd all-time among D for reference).

[Image: DFYT3Xn.png]

Some Math

With 44 games left in S82, Beck is at 21:14 ATOI over his career, or 27,087 minutes.

Beck's playoffs career up to this point is 21:35 ATOI, or 4,697 minutes.

1,276 regular season games + 218 postseason games = 1,494 career games. Divide the total amount of minutes above (31,784) by total career games (1,494) and you end up with a career average ice time of 21:16(.46 - if you include the rounding of half a second).

The difficulty in projecting what ice time is needed is the fact that playoff games are not guaranteed. With WPG likely to make the playoffs, the best outcome for this 21:12 goal is for WPG to be swept in 4 in S82(not what I want obviously but bear with me). If that were to happen, we would be looking at a career total of 1,542 games. Over that span, and average of 21:12 would be 32,690 minutes.

That means over the final 44 regular season games and 4 playoff games, Beck needs to accumulate 906 minutes. Per game, that averages out to 18:53 of ice time over those final 48 games. If Winnipeg were to win more games in the playoffs, that number will creep up slightly. If Winnipeg plays 18 playoff games in S82, the average Beck would need to reach is 19:24.

This feat is definitely doable, but Beck will need a little help based on his trajectory this season of averaging 16:51 through the first 22 games of S82.

Conclusion

Beck has been trending towards this result for a while. There is a non-zero chance that this coincidence occurs. I think it would be really cool. The graph below shows Beck's career progression of cumulative ice time. This would include the current season but also all that came before it.

[Image: ri6p0WO.png]