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Symmetrik · 05-13-2025, 09:40 PM

Well, for those that suffered through my 12,000 word expansion prediction article, some asked or thought it would be a good idea to revisit it afterwards. Now, I won't write nearly as much, but I did think that after seeing the expansion lists come out today, there were some interesting things that I wanted to point out.

Atlanta Inferno

I made 1 incorrect prediction with Atlanta, though aside from just incorrect, I did nail that they would use the option to buy another protection slot with their picks. However, my incorrect guess was which player they would use it on, as I had noted it going towards protecting Puddles O'Duckling, but instead Atlanta chose to leave him exposed and protect Billy Herrington. I think that's a bit of an odd choice considering Z-Whiz was a lifelong Inferno last go around, and pretty much was only going there in the draft. I'd expect maybe that there's a plan to trade back for him, but with 4 expansion teams in the mix it seems like a trade could get complicated (and expensive) quick. If that's the case personally I feel like it would be cheaper and easier to get Herrington back via trade, but maybe I'm wrong and there's no trade at all, and Z-Whiz will actually play for an expansion team.

Baltimore Platoon

I got technically 3 wrong picks, though it was impossible to predict and 1 of those incorrect "predictions" was listing an S82 player protected who was subsequently traded. Anthony Louchard was forced to go to FA prior to S82 after it was determined that Baltimore failed to properly re-sign him as an FA this offseason. Instead, they protect Valieva, which I think is the only other forward that it makes sense to protect at this point, despite the heavy regression. After the trade for POST - which sent S82 prospect Chinweike H.I Valentine-Okoli to Minnesota, can't predict that - and the subsequent fallout, Wally decided to step down as GM and step away from the SHL. Thus Baltimore's co was promoted and they got a new co, who coincidentally takes the protection slot from Wally's player Brodir Aleifrsson. I originally had John Gibson being left unprotected as a tough choice for Baltimore, but with this change they will protect him instead.

Buffalo Stampede

I got 2 wrong predictions here, as I had Slowpoke as a potential protection instead of Grumathan for the wildcard spot, but instead Buffalo has made a fairly shocking move and traded S80 prospect Uwe Bindewald, meaning they now have space to protect Slowpoke. It's an odd move in my mind, as it seemed like fairly poor value in the trade, and I would think it would be more valuable to keep Bindewald rather than Slowpoke. The other incorrect prediction I would also call a pretty odd decision, as they opted to protect Jean-Jacques François Jacques-Jean instead of Christina Fantobens. JJFJJ hasn't earned TPE since February, is only 1200 TPE and an S75. With regression looming and no earning, it doesn't seem like there's much of a career left. Fantobens is by no means a max earner, but still, as an S79 at 900 TPE and still earning, it seems like a very odd choice. Unless Fantobens planned to leave in FA (which would surprise me as the previous co-GM), it seems very odd to protect an inactive like that.

Calgary Dragons

Well, I almost hit the 100% lol. I did correctly predict that Calgary would protect every player they did, but I also predicted that Calgary would buy another protection slot with their picks. They did not, so and so they could not protect all the defensemen I had predicted, and in this case it is Journey Man who will be left unprotected. Which, ultimately makes a lot of sense, and perhaps the name should have been a clue for me to look deeper, as Journey Man has played for a different team every single season. I'm sure next season it will be team number 6, so it makes no sense to protect him.

Chicago Sydicate

I got the wrong goalie. It was always a toss up, but with 2 max earning, young goalies, it's always a tough choice. Florence-Amelie Mackenzie was protected instead of Elvar Gil-Galad, and so the S80 prospect will get faced with the starter's load next season, which won't be easy. I think Chicago is gearing up for a stretch of being quite competitive, and they can't afford an adjustment period of a goalie, so I find it to be a bit of an interesting choice. I also incorrectly predicted the protection of Zeus Storm instead of Cal Juice. One thing I hadn't looked at which may have played a role in this one is the bank. Storm is currently sitting on negative 1 million SHL dollars, which doesn't bode well for future high/max earning. Age is on the side of Storm, but if you can't power through with earning, then the age doesn't really matter.

Edmonton Blizzard

Edmonton is in the midst of a GM search, so their protection slots are technically still subject to change. As of now, the GM protection slot is unused, and non-transferrable, so they are working with 1 less slot than I had when I made my predictions. We shall see how that one shakes out over the next few days, but if cake is promoted to GM, then the co-GM slot should be transferrable and could be used on someone else. After that the situations get complicated, but when all is said and done Edmonton will have 1 more protection slot to use on someone. Currently, the outstanding player on my protections list is Logan Webb.

Hamilton Steelhawks

After I'd written and done my whole draft, I'd realized I made a mistake when doing my predictions for Hamilton. It was too late to re-write, but what would have changed was Hamilton protecting Jani Mänty and using 4F/3D/1G while spending picks to get another slot. In my predictions then, Trevor Lahey would go in the expansion draft, in the same spot. What this means for here in comparison to the actual results, is that I kind of nailed that part. Hamilton did indeed buy another protection slot. My adjustments would have put it pretty close to correct then, with 1 mistake coming in goalie decision, as between 2 equal S78 players, they chose to protect Zamboni instead of Scheibli. And then my other mistake was in the wildcard, where I had Hamilton using it to protect 2 S81 players - Erik Johnson & If you Ain't First - when instead they used it to protect a single player (Zach Mulder). I had protected Zach Mulder just not with a wildcard, so when it all shakes out the player I missed was Hughes Incorporated.

Los Angeles Panthers

Ok like I'm pretty on point here but LAP didn't use their wildcard slot so I guess technically I'm wrong since I predicted that Andrade La Sombra would be protected. I don't know why they wouldn't use it but here we are. Everything else was right.

Manhattan Rage

As I said in my article, the biggest choice for MAN came down to which mid-level goalie they wanted to keep, and it would likely come down to LR presence. Did it? I have no idea. All I know though is I was wrong. I predicted they would protect Holloway, but they instead protected Ståhl. I have no insight into why. Neither has earned TPE since early April, and regression I think would take them out at a pretty equal pace. It's a toss up, there's no data that supports either being a good choice so I can't even get in their heads here to guess why. My other incorrect prediction came from another pretty impossible prediction (though is the kind of thing I theorized when the rules were announced), as Manhattan traded Betzee Nickelback to Winnipeg for Yuri Boyka III. Winnipeg can't protect all their young stars and Manhattan had protections to spare really, so this trade makes sense for MAN to get a valuable player to protect.

Minnesota Monarchs

Minnesota saw a big shakeup after I wrote the article, so there was no predicting the former GM stepping down and leaving, and the co-GM being passed over for someone from another team. This is ultimately how I probably would have predicted it, since I didn't predict for trades/retirements, but I'll be honest and say this isn't a great use of resources for Minnesota, IMO. Jack Ryan, goalie, was the former GM who is now unprotected, but their new GM is also a goalie, Bernard Lodge, who is protected. Because of that, they still use a protection slot on Meowlnir Kittenson, who is the goalie of the future that fits the team's timeline. Perhaps part of the blame falls on HO for the hire, but aside from having to acquire Lodge in a trade, they are now forced to protect him or give up the slot. Lodge retiring makes the most sense for the team, so protecting him is a waste, but as the main GM the slot can't be re-used anyway. The decision to make an outside hire over the co-GM was questionable for many reasons, but value-wise it's a pretty tough call as well for a bottom team that needs all the value they can get. I also had them protecting POST, who of course instead was traded to Baltimore and led to much of the GM changing we saw. Instead, Minnesota used the WC slot to protect S81 Tom O'Donnell alongside Sazed Kholin, and Zac Peters was protected with a regular forward slot.

Montreal Patriotes

I'M LIVING IN YOUR WALLS.

Yeah I nailed it. Everything. I got every player right, I called out the spending of picks to get another protection slot. If you want to call it wrong, I predicted they would used the wildcard slot on Captain Obvious and the EX slot on John Peanut, but it was vice-versa.

New England Wolfpack

I didn't predict trades happening - though I did call out the possibility. In this case I noted that Toronto held both of NEWs next 2 2nd rounders - they would need one if they wanted to buy a protection slot. Maybe they trade Hotdog Lunch and get their 2nd back to protect Mac Turner. And well what do you know, they got their pick back (without trading Lunch). NEW had to give up an S85 2nd and 2 future 3rd to get it, but they got their pick back and indeed used it to protect Mac Turner. I did still get one wrong though, in that NEW chose to protect 2 goalies, using half the WC slot to protect S81 goalie Honza Havran. I had them using the main goalie slot on Havran and protecting Radley Yates with the WC instead, but NEW opted to protect Five-Hole Sieve with the main slot and also protect Havran. I don't think Sieve would have been picked, but NEW wants to compete and Havran has a season left in juniors, so I can see not risking it.

New Orleans Spectres

I was pretty on point with my predictions for NOLA, being unable to predict some things, but most picks were correct, and my 2 incorrect picks came down to "decisions" between players I'd mentioned. NOLA failed to re-sign Smitty Werbenjaegermanjensen, leaving a protection slot on D for Artturi Lappalainen. And they also traded away Bernard Lodge to become GM for Minnesota, which opened the door to protect Jeff Kirkstone III. Those were the 2 decision points I'd pinpointed for NOLA in their protections, and they resolved both by trading away one of the decision points on each. Unfortunately for me, I was technically wrong on both decisions lol.

Philadelphia Forge

I would say Philly was probably my most incorrect one, though with only 3 wrong ones it's not too far off others. Philly is a pretty interesting one though, as first things first Cale Salad (Philly co-GM) retired today, which would mean that the protection slot did not need to be used to protect them. However protection lists were due by Sunday at 11:59 PM PST, which means technically at the time of submitting the list, Philly should have been required to use a protection slot on Salad. The deadline is the deadline, and when that deadline hit, Cale Salad was not retired.

Now, that being impossible to predict, but it seems to have been allowed which means Philly was free to pre-emptively transfer that protection slot. In addition to that, I had predicted that Philly would use the 6 skaters option, and use picks to protect an extra player. I also predicted the wildcard slot would be used on 2 S81 players, but instead they used it on Tony Soprano. Seaborne (S81) was instead protected with a regular D slot, 3WW Wingmate-Roc was protected as well instead of Cale Salad, and Lancer Frappé was left unprotected as they didn't choose to split the WC slot to 2 S81s.

San Francisco Pride

Ok I was more wrong than LAP but WHY is there another team not using the retired co-GM player slot? SFP simply didn't protect another player that they could have.

I had them protecting Toasty, but instead they traded Toasty to NOLA and signed Smitty Werbenjaegermanjensen (who at the time of doing my article was still "rostered" for NOLA, then became an FA, then was signed), and so Smitty takes the protection slot I had predicted for Toasty. And then what I assume was a tough decision between Scholz and Hargreeves, as they are pretty similar players. I got this one wrong as I protected the slightly younger Scholz, but for SFP they opt to protect Hargreeves. And finally, I had predicted Ima Noobie would be protected, however as mentioned above SFP chose not to transfer the co-GM protection slot, meaning there was 1 less protection slot than predicted.

Seattle Argonauts

I was pretty clean in my predictions with Seattle, and ultimately as I said the decision would come down to a 7th forward and protecting Gordon McFisherman, or a 4th defenseman in Simo Jääskeläinen. I got it wrong though as I predicted they keep the defenseman Jääskeläinen. Once again though I was on point when it came to predicting the use of the picks to garner an extra protection slot.

Tampa Bay Barracuda

Another one that I was pretty close on, and realistically I think this decision comes down to an unpredictable locker room value. I predicted TBB would protect Kevin Kim, and instead they opted to protect Max Carnage. Both are S71 players, but Kim has about a 100 TPE lead on Carnage. Regression will be a burden on both, but at that point you'd want the better earner to fight off the harsher and harsher regression.

Texas Renegades

Yeah this is a weird one to be honest and is a decision that doesn't really make any sense to me. First off, Texas traded for Uwe Bindewald, a great deal for them and an easy choice to protect instead of Winston Windsor. An incorrect prediction by me but of course I couldn't see that trade coming, but still a great decision for Texas. The other prediction I got wrong however is a head scratcher for sure. As their GM is a goalie, the single goalie protection slot could be used on the GM player, and that is the only situation in which the GM protection slot could be transferred to another player. Instead though, Texas opted to protect both the GM goalie, and use the goalie slot on their backup, an S75 player with 1000 TPE. Roman Cechmanek II is a season away from regression and barely earning, and I'm pretty sure Dionne fighting regression will hold the starter role better. So I'm not really sure of the benefit compared to keeping someone like Jack St. Clair (or even Brandon Gilleyes). Burning the protection slot on someone who might get 1 season as a starter before Travis Coates is the better player seems like an odd choice for sure.

Toronto North Stars

One thing I noted for Toronto was that there was no good option for the 3rd protection slot on D, and they should hope Sinclair starts earning better. Well, that hasn't really happened, and Sven Holmberg, despite not fitting the team's window, definitely has more value here. Totally makes sense to protect Holmberg. My other mistake on Toronto's prediction is Levi Bedrock being left unprotected. That's a bit of a surprise, but looking deeper into it it might make some sense. His earning is slowing down and the bank is running real low. I'm not really a believer in protecting Leighton Oligny instead, as he's over 300 TPE behind his class at this point, older than Bedrock, and skipping earning as well. At the least he has the bank to keep up, but abandoning one of your S81 players at this point is a bit of a surprise.

Winnipeg Aurora

Somehow, my own team is one of my most incorrect predictions. I promise, it wasn't even intentional misdirection. I'm not in the war room or anything and don't have any real knowledge of GM decisions. At best, I know the LR. As mentioned in my article, Winnipeg was in a prime position to expose their S84 1st in order to get another protection slot, but they didn't own it. Well, well, well, they went out and got it back. I had Winnipeg protecting Yuri Boyka III, who was traded away to get that pick back. I also had Winnipeg protecting Solaire of Astora and Hockey Player, and neither are being protected. At the time of my article both were up towards the tops of their classes in earning, but as the season has gone on Astora has skipped PTs and really dropped behind quickly. In their places, max earning long time players in Langston Hardison-Laurent, Juan Tymer, and NoNo Jo are all being protected. In addition, since they picked up their own 1st rounder again, Winnipeg paid up to get another protection slot and protected Pavel Mintyukov. I am pretty surprised that it was used on Mintyukov and not Player.

Anyway, somehow I rambled for ANOTHER 3000 words about the expansion draft, so that's something. My predictions were pretty strong overall, as there were only a few outright incorrect picks, and a lot of unpredictable trades/changes. I perfectly predicted Montreal's picks, so I'll take that as an absolute win and ignore everything else.

I doubt I make another article since it's going to be pretty difficult to compare my expansion mock with the real draft with different protections, plus, I should actually do other things with my time, lol.

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**brickwall35** · 05-13-2025, 10:15 PM

Symm is now aware of the Journey, Man.

By-Tor · Yesterday, 09:53 AM

05-13-2025, 09:40 PMSymmetrik Wrote: Atlanta Inferno

I made 1 incorrect prediction with Atlanta, though aside from just incorrect, I did nail that they would use the option to buy another protection slot with their picks. However, my incorrect guess was which player they would use it on, as I had noted it going towards protecting Puddles O'Duckling, but instead Atlanta chose to leave him exposed and protect Billy Herrington. I think that's a bit of an odd choice considering Z-Whiz was a lifelong Inferno last go around, and pretty much was only going there in the draft. I'd expect maybe that there's a plan to trade back for him, but with 4 expansion teams in the mix it seems like a trade could get complicated (and expensive) quick. If that's the case personally I feel like it would be cheaper and easier to get Herrington back via trade, but maybe I'm wrong and there's no trade at all, and Z-Whiz will actually play for an expansion team.

Honestly shocked.