Nah let's stick with what's worked. An exploit was found, and we can address it. It's not worth changing sims and risking a contraction. Unless FHM can produce an index like www.pbesim.com, we should stick with what's worked for years.
11-27-2019, 02:12 AMToivo Wrote: Nah let's stick with what's worked. An exploit was found, and we can address it. It's not worth changing sims and risking a contraction. Unless FHM can produce an index like www.pbesim.com, we should stick with what's worked for years.
Why?
There’s no fixing stsh unless you convince Simon himself to change the decision making formula.
11-27-2019, 04:55 AMWasty Wrote: I really wish people would stop talking in absolutes.
So much this.
"“HA HA! THIS GAME WILL NEVER END! I POSSESS THE SOUL OF EVERY GOALIE ON TEAM B!! CREW 4 LIFE!! SIGN WITH EDMONTON FOR THE CUP!!!” cackled Belial as he placed a Fedora on his head." SMJHL Commisioner S17-S26 Calgary Dragons GM S14-S23
11-27-2019, 08:53 AM(This post was last modified: 11-27-2019, 09:22 AM by RomanesEuntDomus.)
11-27-2019, 12:58 AMcaltroit_red_flames Wrote:
11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: I'm definitely one of the people who are quite sceptical and conservative when it comes to big changes like this one. And it's not because I think FHM won't be good, it will likely be way better than STHS, it's because I'm worried that we won't be able to survive the change. That's not a slight against the transition team either as there are some very capable and dedicated people on it, but there are many factors and risks attached to a sim change that are basically outside of human control.
The fact is that a change needs to happen. That change is either update scale restrictions (PA and SC have to be within 20 points of each other is the band aid we're using now which further restricts people's build diversity) or moving to a new engine. So I'm not sure what to say here, but the current iteration of SHL and STHS are incompatible.
I would disagree with that. A new engine is definitely desireable but it's not something that absolutely has to happen. It would certainly be possible to continue with STHS after putting some more band-aids on it, it's basically what we've been doing for years. Still, I would acknowledge of course that there are many negatives attached to this as well.
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11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: There might be gamebreaking issues and bugs that don't show up right away no matter how much testing is done. The same goes for non-gamebreaking balancing issues that make things less fun and that might not show up until the mid- to long-term either. People essentially broke STHS by understanding it too well, just the same might happen with FHM once people start putting the same amount of research into it. And then there is smaller stuff like the downtime and skill-transition that come with the change itself, the inconsistencies in record keeping, the new entry barriers we create by using a commercial product, the exportability and displayability of stats and results and so on...
If we can go another 50 seasons before someone breaks FHM then we worry about it down the line in my opinion. However the issues you're bringing up have been resolved:
1. Inconsistencies in record keeping - We store all of our records on the site since seasons are disjointed. As is clearly displayed there have been different eras in SHL where changes in STHS or the site have created a big enough change to make the distinction between eras. With the sliders in FHM we can keep stats as close as possible but if they're too different we can create another era. We're changing as little as possible though. 50 game seasons, backups play a minimum of 6(?) games. Etc. Records will still be recorded on the site like normal, none of the old indexes are going to disappear and we're going to have indexes for FHM just like we do for STHS.
2. Commercial Product - STHS is a commercial product and GMs don't need FHM to submit lines just like we use now.
3. Exportability of Stats and Results - @esilverm is working on the index, I'm working on individual game box scores. This problem has already been solved and we'll have the solution visually available before the move.
I'm not as optimistic as you, plain and simple. These issues are being adressed, sure, but they aren't resolved and they will be impossible to resolve until we are already through with the change. Plus you also adressed some of the issues I see and left out the ones that I think are actually the most problematic ones: Bugs and balancing. We might have a successful switch and then run into a gamebreaking bug three seasons down the road that forces us to re-sim large chunks of the past season or to switch sims again. And no amount of testing can tell us how balanced the new sim will be, how well certain builds and rosters will do, how high the gap between high- and low-TPE players will be and so on. But of course this is also something that can be quite exciting and invigorating as well, I won't deny that. Still, I'm worried that people might break this new sim just as the old one not 50 seasons down the line but 2 or 3, unless we start putting in similar restrictions like we'd have to with STHS.
I don't think I have to remind you of the NSHL-example. Now in many cases this was a different situation that isn't directly comparable to this one but it captures quite well which opportunities and problems there come with a new engine. A lot of excitement early on but new issues arising pretty much on a weekly basis even though there was extensive testing. And one of the problems was that the first Season was massively unbalanced in terms of results even though everyone had started on a level playing field and TPE-separation was low. Who knows how bad this might become in a league like ours were players are at such different stages of their development. You can only account for this so much by testing with our current rosters. But once the change has happened GMs will be quick to try new strategies and players will try new builds that you haven't foreseen and it might be just as gamebreaking as what we are faced with now.
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11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: People joined the SHL with certain expectations and fell in love with it and stayed for their own specific reasons. After such a drastic engine change it won't be the league that they originally signed up for anymore, who knows how this will impact their motivation. It's kinda hard to put into words but I think this might actually be the most important argument/risk. Just think of people who fall in love with certain video games or other works of fiction and can never warm up to the eventual sequel or remake, even if it is objectively better.
I think everyone came into the SHL hoping to create a player of their own. Just watch the promotional video we all saw in our inbox when we first started: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW4Ha_bk...e=emb_logo . Sniper, power forward, offensive defenseman, defensive defenseman. It's all a sham. The only difference between my build and my teammate's builds are that we have different levels of TPE. Our peak builds are all the same. We got sold essentially a bit of a lie and stayed because we made friends. This gives us the real opportunity for the experience we signed up for. I get what you're saying, change is hard for some. But if we can have our friends and the individual experience we're all craving I see no downside there.
Well that video didn't exist yet when I and many others joined but sure, it's a valid point. The league definitely looks shinier at the start than it looks once you have settled in after a few seasons but as I said, it works and by then other positive mechanisms of this community have taken over. But yes, I don't deny, as you said, that the experience would be better in a fully-functional FHM enviroment, I'm just not sure that we can get their without shipwrecking along the way.
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11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: Changing engines in an existing league is a whole different beast than starting a new one on a new engine. The SHL is a behemoth for better and for worse, it comes with the benefit of a large and dedicated userbase while also being inflexible not for a lack of trying from the people involved, but for the many interconnected systems that are already in place (TPE, builds, PTs, media, contracts...). We don't just carry over our large user base, but a huge amount of baggage as well.
The only thing that's changing here is the update scale and builds. TPE numbers, media, contracts, PTs, etc. are all staying the same. The only thing that's really going to change for the average user is that you'll have different attributes and a new index. If you're a GM you'll update lines differently and if you're an updater you'll go back to using spreadsheets. The SHL is a community that we aren't planning on uprooting. We're just changed the sim engine, not all of this other stuff.
You misunderstood me here I think. I'm not talking about changing all these systems but about how interconnected they are, and only changing one or two will impact all the others whether you intend to or not. A new attribute system will require a new update scale which will require different amounts of TPE which would require changes to the PT or training system which would require changes to our monetary landscape and so on and so on... It's doable for sure but it is really hard to foresee all the rippling effects it will have beforehand.
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11-26-2019, 11:09 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: A new sim comes with new opportunities but I think that people underestimate the risk that comes with such a radical change to such an entrenched system. I would argue that there is about a 50-50 chance that this flat out kills the league. It could work out and if it does, the SHL will be better than it is now - but the failure risk is huge and so are the consequences. If we fail with this than the consequences won't just be a dip in activity and a few weaker draft classes, but the end of the league or it's shrinking to a much smaller size.
STHS is broken. Maybe you're right that there's a 50-50 chance we die if we move (I disagree but I'll play along), but there is a 100% chance SHL dies with STHS. The SHL can't continue with this broken sim where SC, PH, DF and EN are the only stats that improve your player. It's broken, there's no other way to put it. I think it's important to point out how positively so many people have reacted to this. Members are talking about coming back from inactivity because this is such a ground breaking change for hockey sim leagues. VHL and GOMHL still exist for those that for some reason want STHS, but we're going to see members come to SHL from there because of how exciting this is.
As I said in the beginning, I would disagree with this assessment that the SHL will certainly die if we stay on STHS and I think it is this talking in absolutes that some people are a bit annoyed by. But I absolutely grant you that an engine change could give us a short-term member boost because yes, it would be exciting for sure and could lead to old members returning and giving this league a shot again or for new ones to sign up. But I'm not so much worried about the transition period itself but the 3-5 seasons that come after it while everyone has to adapt and where people might grow disillusioned and new problems arise.
I mean we have all seen exciting new sim leagues start, with new sim engines or whole new sports that are tried out. And we also know that the large majority of them dies, even if they seem to be working fine after a season or two. Now the SHL does have a head start because of our established community and the time and ressources that people have already invested in it, so it's not a 90% failure risk like it would be with a new league, but still a significant one.
People love new stuff in the beginning and are excited about it, but then more often than not these things die not right away, but 2-5 seasons down the road because of all the previously unforeseen problems and because you can't hold the same level of excitement that you had at the start forever and especially the very dedicated people who set the league up or are in charge of the changes burn out rather quickly.
Lastly, I would also argue that we see the SHL too negatively. It is the most successful hockey sim league that I know of, even with an engine with severe flaws, and we have been doing exceptionally well for about 10 real life years now I think? I think we should celebrate that more instead of focusing on the negatives and problems so much. To be honest, when that whole HAM passing-thing came out I was quite surprised how quick many people were to give up on the SHL and doom and gloom it up. It almost seemed like many of them had just been waiting for a situation like this to pounce and provide the death blow to STHS which didn't have to be one.
You brought up VHL and GOMHL and the SHL far outclasses both these league in terms of sheer size but also member retention and depth of the experience (not even speaking of all the other short-lived leagues that existed over the years). And both the VHL and GOMHL are still fine leagues, yet the SHL seems to be much better at drawing in people and keeping them engaged, so maybe things haven't been so bad after all? We provide a deeper experience than VHL and GOMHL who are a bit more superficial, without having a super in-depth engine that requires an extensive investment to get started. Maybe this is exactly the sweetspot where we need to be, that crossroads between easy and complex. A new, superior-engine with a higher entry barrier might be more fun for us people involved in discussions like this one, the try-hards, the super actives or super experienced ones. But for new members and those with lower engagement it might be a higher obstacle and less engaging experience that leads to lower retention - and that's without all the bugs and balance issues that could potentially happen.
11-27-2019, 12:58 AMcaltroit_red_flames Wrote: STHS is broken. Maybe you're right that there's a 50-50 chance we die if we move (I disagree but I'll play along), but there is a 100% chance SHL dies with STHS. The SHL can't continue with this broken sim where SC, PH, DF and EN are the only stats that improve your player. It's broken, there's no other way to put it. I think it's important to point out how positively so many people have reacted to this. Members are talking about coming back from inactivity because this is such a ground breaking change for hockey sim leagues. VHL and GOMHL still exist for those that for some reason want STHS, but we're going to see members come to SHL from there because of how exciting this is.
This has been the case for literally years, and the site has grown despite it.
The argument that the site will die due to STHS has little merit at this point.
Alonzo Garbanzo Final Tallies (Among Defensemen):
2nd in Goals (208), All-Time Assists Leader (765)*, All-Time Points Leader (973), 3rd in Hits (2587), All-Time Blocked Shots Leader (1882)* *All-Time Leader Among All Skaters Player Profile | Update Thread
I think, for me, the part that is getting overlooked is the impact on the community. I get it. FHM is good, STHS is bad. That point has been well established, and I can't argue against it. But this is a massive shift for the site that we can't troubleshoot with test sims.
I'm just going to present myself as an example. I'm a very replaceable person, nothing I say will prevent this move from happening. But when I joined the SHL, I was working 35-40 hours a week, spent a lot more time playing video games, and had more than enough spare time to blow on a silly sim hockey league building up "The player I want to score all the goals I can't on EASHL" and making friends along the way, some of which I hope to keep for a lifetime.
I now work upwards of 60 hours a week. Next week, that number will probably be closer to 100 because of a special event, but that's the exception rather than the norm. Then again, so is 40. What free time I have, sometimes the last thing I want to do is check this site, and that's with the familiarity I have now from being here for three-plus years.
It's almost a lock I will step down as Russian Assistant Federation Head with a sim change. Not because I think it's bad, or the boogeyman, or anything like that, but because what free time I have, I don't want to spend learning a new sim for a tournament that lasts a week every two months. I can't even say with absolute certainty I'll fall in love with the new, better sim and stick around altogether.
You're probably looking at, if I had to guess, having 5-10% of job holders falling by the wayside, either for reasons like above, because Change is Bad Mkayyyyyy, or because they give the new sim an earnest attempt out of excitement and simply don't fall in love with it. It's going to happen. This is far more absolute than many of the absolutes being presented by both sides in this discussion. And even if those jobs don't change because of the new sim (media grading, banking, stuff like that), those people will have to be replaced. Some of them are going to be a lot harder to replace than me.
As an aside, I do think it's a bit disingenuous to suggest that the price point is a complete non-issue with FHM because "you don't need the sim to make lines/strats." That may be true, just as it is true with STHS, but if you're going to seriously consider being a GM it's going to be incredibly disadvantageous to not have the sim when your peers do, to the point that I think many would consider it a turn off as an FA or draftee if you knew a certain team's GM lacked that resource and wasn't putting you in the most optimal position to succeed. The price is a factor and one that can't be brushed under the rug, especially when considering what I've laid out above and that price point might cost you a couple of existing GMs as well.
11-27-2019, 09:56 AM(This post was last modified: 11-27-2019, 10:05 AM by DeletedAtUserRequest.)
The site hierarchy needs to add a group of people in charge of adding stuff for members to do here while we’re figuring stuff out. We’re at least a week of nothing... were only going to hold our new members and semi actives for so long. How about some media double bonus on a handful of topics... how about some games where money and tpe can be won.. and daily updates by those in charge on where we stand with s51...
11-27-2019, 02:12 AMToivo Wrote: Nah let's stick with what's worked. An exploit was found, and we can address it. It's not worth changing sims and risking a contraction. Unless FHM can produce an index like www.pbesim.com, we should stick with what's worked for years.
11-27-2019, 09:44 AMTheHockeyist Wrote: I just want hockey. Who cares about sim specifics (other than the guys actually simulating)? Transfer my build and I'll be happy!
From my understanding (and correct me if I'm wrong on this), the added number of attributes doesn't really make "transferring a build" possible. It's going to require an active and involved process of reapplying TPE in line with a new update scale and new attributes for every player in the league (including inactive, which, yeesh, you're going to need some kind of guideline in place for that I would think).
11-27-2019, 02:12 AMToivo Wrote: Nah let's stick with what's worked. An exploit was found, and we can address it. It's not worth changing sims and risking a contraction. Unless FHM can produce an index like www.pbesim.com, we should stick with what's worked for years.
We're working on that index right now, it'll be closer to the PBE's than STHS had
11-27-2019, 09:44 AMTheHockeyist Wrote: I just want hockey. Who cares about sim specifics (other than the guys actually simulating)? Transfer my build and I'll be happy!
From my understanding (and correct me if I'm wrong on this), the added number of attributes doesn't really make "transferring a build" possible. It's going to require an active and involved process of reapplying TPE in line with a new update scale and new attributes for every player in the league (including inactive, which, yeesh, you're going to need some kind of guideline in place for that I would think).
I imagine it’ll be on the GMs to transfer their inactive players to the new update scale which will be really nice on top of having to learn an entire new sim, new builds, new scale, new strats, etc.
#40 Niclas Wastlund - W - VANCOUVER WHALERS / MINNESOTA MONARCHS
11-27-2019, 10:11 AMztevans Wrote: From my understanding (and correct me if I'm wrong on this), the added number of attributes doesn't really make "transferring a build" possible. It's going to require an active and involved process of reapplying TPE in line with a new update scale and new attributes for every player in the league (including inactive, which, yeesh, you're going to need some kind of guideline in place for that I would think).
I imagine it’ll be on the GMs to transfer their inactive players to the new update scale which will be really nice on top of having to learn an entire new sim, new builds, new scale, new strats, etc.
^
It might be just me, but learning new things is fun. It will be a lot of work, but it will be fun.
11-27-2019, 10:26 AMWasty Wrote: I imagine it’ll be on the GMs to transfer their inactive players to the new update scale which will be really nice on top of having to learn an entire new sim, new builds, new scale, new strats, etc.
^
It might be just me, but learning new things is fun. It will be a lot of work, but it will be fun.
It sure is.. when you have the time to do it.
#40 Niclas Wastlund - W - VANCOUVER WHALERS / MINNESOTA MONARCHS
Toivo![[Image: 2ew9foG.png]](https://i.imgur.com/2ew9foG.png)
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/ MINNESOTA MONARCHS 
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