Create Account

Burlok Sulfurgold Prospect Showcase Results: A Deep Dive
#1
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2020, 04:03 PM by leviadan.)

[Image: ujfrnFR.jpg]

707 Words - 2x Draft Media - Ready for Grading

The Bravo Champion's high flying 6-3-1 showing at the SMJHL Prospect Showcase was no doubt an incredible outing. Despite placing second by way of the regulation wins tiebreaker-- it's hard to imagine the squad isn't thrilled with their overall performance. Sporting a tournament leading 8.7 goals per game and incredible 2 points per game or higher performances from highly touted prospects like Danny White, Walter II, Sven Svenson and Jack Kanoff: it's easy to look at the top of the score sheet and see a team carried by some truly exceptional talents. But for the purposes of this article, I want to look down the stat sheet a little bit. OK... more than a little bit. Let's scroll down the stat sheet for a while.

[Image: Screen_Shot_2020-01-17_at_11.24.55_AM.pn...height=502]

There we go. Burlok Sulfurgold, a 6'1 power forward with 8 points in 10 games. Not bad right? That's a healthy amount of assists, and perhaps a rebound potted for a strong forechecker with a net-front presence. So what more is there to see here? If we shield our eyes from the glow of the Champion's top talent, I think there's a few areas worth highlighting.

First and foremost is the hits column. This is by far the most important column in hockey, and if we sort the Champions by who did well in this, the most important column in hockey-- well would you look at that? Burlok rockets up to second place. What does this tell us? Sulfurgold comes as advertised. This big German boy is getting into the corners and banging bodies. He will not be outworked in either end of the ice, and his presence is a force to be reckoned with. When Sulfurgold is on ice, opposing teams know that they are in for a heavy shift. You will not be able to touch the puck without being harassed and having to fight for every single inch. If an oppressive forecheck is in your team's strategy, then Sulfurgold is a guy to keep a close eye on.

Second is the shots column. Despite only scoring one goal, we can actually see that Sulfurgold took 25 shots! This translates to 4% shooting, which is also the worst shooting percentage on the team (of those with one goal or more). 4% is almost half of the next player up, Bradley Barkov, who buried one goal on 14 shots for 7.1 percent. Now you might be saying, "What's the big deal? This kids shooting from the perimeter! He has no accuracy! He's putting pucks right into the goalies chest!" I beg to differ, and I have data to back it up.

[Image: heatmap.jpg]

Take a look at Sulfurgold's 5v5 shots heat map. He is all over the net. Shot tips, rebounds, banging in tight-- these are high percentage plays in hockey. Anyone can look at that heat map and tell you that this guy is going to score some goals. What this tells us is that Sulfurgold was victim to some mixture of goalies standing on their head, and plain old bad luck. Using data from Natural Stat Trick, high danger chances from areas like these, on average, result in a goal 12-13% of the time. If we adjust Sulfurgold's results to his expected results we would see two, maybe three, more goals than he got. When we're talking about a window as small as 10 games, two or three more goals is a pretty significant increase. Even just two more goals would put Sulfurgold as a point per game player-- that's firmly in the window of a top talent. 

All of this to say that, in my eyes, Sulfurgold is going to be a hidden gem in the upcoming draft. Between playing in the shadows of a star-studded Bravo Champions team, and falling victim to some exceptionally poor shooting luck, Sulfurgold is flying under the radar for many. Through the advanced analysis performed above, I posit that a savvy team would still be able to pick him up in the later rounds. To me, this kid is a first round talent, and we could see him fall as far as the fourth or fifth. And to the team that uncovers him that late, I think you'll have the steal of the draft.

--leviadan

[Image: pin1_1.gif?ex=65fe67b4&is=65ebf2b4&hm=a6...46085eb3f&]
Reply




Users browsing this thread:
1 Guest(s)




Navigation

 

Extra Menu

 

About us

The Simulation Hockey League is a free online forums based sim league where you create your own fantasy hockey player. Join today and create your player, become a GM, get drafted, sign contracts, make trades and compete against hundreds of players from around the world.