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Goaltender Analysis from the S52 SMJHL Prospect Tournament
#1
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2020, 02:47 AM by reid.)

(x2 Draft bonus, first time bonus, 1033 words)

***NOTE: The sliders were apparently wacky, so these stats should not be taken as reflective of actual performance, to the best of my knowledge. This was done for practice/fun.***
 
As the Prospect Showcase Tournament winds to a close, I wanted to take a second to look back and reflect on the performance of the top goaltending prospects who took part. We all know that it takes longer for goaltending prospects to develop, and with so few roster spots open in the SMJHL, the competition is fierce. Six teams took part in the tournament, with two goaltenders each. They all played fairly even minutes, so the stats shown should not be skewed by playing time.

Without further ado, here are the main stats from the prospect showcase (seen in attachment because it makes the post too long). Green shaded cells show that the goaltender was above average in that category, and red shaded cells show that they were below average. Apologies for my excel representation, I am not as skilled as others on this forum at github or something similar... maybe I should be if I want my graphs to be included.

[Image: goalies1.jpg?width=600&height=156]

Unsurprisingly, the two teams with the best record, Alpha Rococos (7-3-0) and the Bravo Champions (7-3-0) benefitted from some excellent goaltending. Not Nictox and Jason Voorhees had outstanding tournaments, showing teams why they should be hot commodities come draft day. Delta Planes and the Echo Ofthevoids finished with disappointing records but had surprising bright spots in net. Their records might have been even worse without Zach Attack and Frans Eller in net.


Below are the top 5 netminders in some of the major stats:

Top 5 in Sv %
Not Nictox – 0.887
Jason Voorhees – 0.882
Frans Eller – 0.862
Zach Attack – 0.860
John Curtis – 0.853

Top 5 in GAA
Not Nictox – 5.18
Jason Voorhees – 5.38
Zach Attack – 6.07
John Curtis – 6.43
Frans Eller – 6.69
 
Top 5 in GSAA
Not Nictox – 13.5
Jason Voorhees – 9.4
Frans Eller – 4.8
Zach Attack – 4.3
John Curtis – 3.9

Note: GSAA stands for Goals Saved Above Average and indicates how many goals they prevented above what an average goaltender from the tournament would. The higher the number, the more a goalie “stood on their head”
 
Here we see 5 goalies separate themselves from the rest of the pack, all consistently placing in the top 5. From that group, Nox Nictox and Jason Voorhees show themselves to be the top two performers of the tournament by a large margin. Nictox slightly edges Voorhees in save percentage and GAA, but where he really shows his merit is in GSAA. Nictox took the Champions on his back and made some outstanding saves throughout the tournament. The highlight save against Charlie Angel’s Chris Cerullo where Nictox threw his stick across the crease to stop an easy tap in stands out as one of the best in the tournament. SMJHL GMs will be lining up this Saturday to get a chance to draft Nictox. The other netminder on the Bravo Champions, Allen Washington, did not have as successful of a tournament, but that did not stop the team from allowing the second fewest goals as a tandem. The Champions did allow the third most shots against in the tournament, however Nictox mitigated that by turning away all but 32 of them.
 
Also notable was the goaltending duo of Jason Voorhees and John Curtis. As mentioned above, Voorhees was one of the standout goaltenders of the showcase, although Curtis was not far behind. Both were above average in all counting stats, the only duo to accomplish this. They combined to allow the fewest goals against, despite being outshot almost every night. Voorhees was recently ranked as one of the top prospects to keep an eye on, as he is a recreate, and it was not hard to see why. Big and skilled in net, the future is bright for whichever squad is lucky enough to draft him.
 
Other interesting observations:
 
Joe Simpson of Charlie Angels had a rough tournament, going 2-2-0 but only managing a 0.767 sv% and a 9.72, worst among the goalies. This contributed to a -12 GSAA, which showed that he let a few weak ones through. This is not the end for Simpson however, as he was praised by GMs for not giving up and fighting through controversy. Expect his stock to slip a little, but not too far, as he is still an exciting prospect.
 
The duo from the Foxtrott Trottyfoxes maybe should have slowed down to a walk so that they didn’t stumble as much as they did. Sam Lowery and Jerry Huuveri played behind the strongest shot supressing defence, allowing only 399 shots, but let up a below average 71 goals. This was a mix of bad luck and getting into their own heads. Head Coach Adam Fox said that both Lowery and Huuveri were feeling dismayed about their performance but had both shown excellent potential in team scrimmages. Expect other outings to be more positive for the pair, as they look to show their stuff to GMs.
 
Ryan Aaron of the Echo Ofthevoids was the 6th ranked goaltender in most of the categories, and was the only goalie not listed above that also had above average results in all major statistical categories. He showed a lot of promise, and GMs who are looking for a sneaky good pick are sure to take a look at him. I caught up with Ryan after his last game. He said he was happy with his performance but knew there were always areas to improve. He pointed to his solid GSAA as an indicator that what he is doing is working. He views himself as a goalie capable of being in the same category as Voorhees and Nictox, and I am inclined to believe him! I would not want to face off against him in a few years.
 
S52 of the SMJHL draft is poised to be a competitive one for the goaltenders. Possible franchise stars are working hard to make the SHL, and some surely have their eyes on the HOF once they are there. For now, they have to bide their time, and wait for their name to be called when the draft kicks off tomorrow at noon.

Thanks Wasty, Carpy, JSS, TurdFerguson, Geekusoid and Awesomecakes for the sigs!
[Image: reidsuth.gif]
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#2
(This post was last modified: 01-18-2020, 01:31 AM by reid.)

I am not sure where the attachment is... as I am a rookie this is my first time doing this. if anyone can let me know how to show the picture, that would be greatly appreciated Smile

Edit: Fixed!

Thanks Wasty, Carpy, JSS, TurdFerguson, Geekusoid and Awesomecakes for the sigs!
[Image: reidsuth.gif]
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#3

Delta Planes with the 2nd best shots against, nice. Good evaluation, thank you! The chart could stand to be a little bigger?



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#4

Very cool write-up. Thanks for putting this together.

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Thanks @enigmatic, @Carpy48, @Bayley, @Ragnar, @sulovilen, & @dasboot for the signatures!



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#5

01-18-2020, 02:28 AMroastpuff Wrote: Delta Planes with the 2nd best shots against, nice. Good evaluation, thank you! The chart could stand to be a little bigger?

I updated it. Still blurry though. Thats what I get for taking screenshots I guess

Thanks Wasty, Carpy, JSS, TurdFerguson, Geekusoid and Awesomecakes for the sigs!
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#6

@"reid_sutherland" This article received the 2x draft media bonus. Since you can't stack bonuses, you can use your first article bonus on your first article written outside the draft media window, or on your first article written about something other than the draft.

Guy Incognito - D - #24
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#7

01-21-2020, 02:24 AMLeafs4ever Wrote: @"reid_sutherland" This article received the 2x draft media bonus. Since you can't stack bonuses, you can use your first article bonus on your first article written outside the draft media window, or on your first article written about something other than the draft.
@Leafs4ever Thanks for clearing this up!

Thanks Wasty, Carpy, JSS, TurdFerguson, Geekusoid and Awesomecakes for the sigs!
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