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LordBirdman · 01-19-2020, 03:43 PM

SMJHL S52 Draft Analysis

Background:
Inspired by @Paq's Draft Evaluation Need thread, I decided to take a look at various statistics around the S52 SMJHL draft as well as to see if GM's drafted in accordance with that statistical analysis. Unfortunately for me, I don't have the python skills to pull this data down in an automated fashion - but I am an excel nerd at heart and it was nice to get back in there building formulas and making tables (I was methodical but let me know if you spot an error). I also had a burning desire to see how many LW were drafted before Sven Svenson to see how I should really feel about where I was drafted. Overall, there were 98 players drafted but only 97 have player pages created (@Nicotine Overdose create your player!). I'm not going to attempt to opine on experienced GM's draft choices and this is not meant to be a draft grade article (because wtf do I know). I will however remind teams when they passed on Sven because that's fun.

Overall Position Data

I decided to first look at the overall draft in increments of 20 players drafted (2 rounds). This gives a larger sample size (but still likely too small to be honest) than looking at single round increments and is interesting for looking at trends throughout the draft.

[Image: unknown.png?width=696&height=600]

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Overall, the amount of players created and drafted is relatively balanced (+/-5%) compared to the what would be an expected selection percentage based on a roster of 4 lines and 2 goalies (FWD - 55%; C/LW/RW - 18%; D - 36%; G - 9%).
Across the 10 teams, the lowest amount of players selected was Kelowna (5) and the highest was Newfoundland (20). The average and mean players selected were 9.7 and 7.5, respectively, and the standard deviation of players taken was 4.7.
Each 2 round draft increment also appears to be relatively balanced, with relatively few major swings (other than C as noted below).
After 4 C's drafted in the Top 20, including 3 in the first round, only 1 C was selected in the next 20 picks. 5 C's were taken in the following 20 picks (41-60) to bring the cumulative C's taken closer to the expected selection percentage.
Total forwards taken were always over the expected selection percentage, ranging from +5% to +25%.
There were 8 LW's drafted before Sven Svenson was drafted. His fall in the draft is suspected to be due to a disturbing back story that GM's struggled to get comfortable with. Sven Svenson has tentatively agreed to a follow-up interview with SI For Kids if they agree to fire the reporter that dug up and dramatized his history.
Of forwards drafted, LW was the most popular in both the Top 40 and Top 60.
I considered adding nationality in this analysis, but adding player position took long enough (without having to click into a player thread to see) so PM for this spreadsheet and you can add that data if you're so inclined. I wouldn't suggest it unless you can run a script like Paq did.

Team Analysis

Anaheim Outlaws
[Image: Outlaws2.png]

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: LW, RW
Paq Evaluated Focus: Depth

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Anaheim drafted a total of 17 players, including a whopping 13 players outside the Top 60. This should certainly add to the depth of the Outlaws.
Anaheim selected a RW at pick 13 and LW at pick 41, their 1st and 3rd selection, to bolster their winger core. Paq's analysis was spot on with this one.
Despite having a strong crop of returning D averaging over 350 TPE, Anaheim used their 2nd selection on a D man to replenish their talent at the position.
Other than RW vs. LW, Anaheim's position distribution was in line with an expected selection percentage noted above.

Anchorage Armada
[Image: Anchorage.png]

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: Skaters
Paq Evaluated Focus: Depth, Potential

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Anchorage drafted 7 players, with 6 of those players taken in the Top 60.
The Armada stocked up on forward talent with their top 3 selections, including talented C Danny White and 2 LW's that could've been Sven Svenson but in fact were not.
Anchorage selected the player finishing first in the Scrabble draft rankings at pick 39, potential steal of the draft? It does come with the headache of having to copy and paste that last name, something I'm currently unwilling to do. Time will tell whether Vlad's performance on and off the ice make that chore worth it.
Anchorage had different views of their depth needs than Paq or Anaheim.

Carolina Kraken
[Image: SMJHL-Kraken.png]

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: RW, D, G
Paq Evaluated Focus: Depth

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Carolina's 8 players were drafted evenly inside and outside of the Top 60.
The Kraken cashed on their first selection with a RW, a position of need according to Paq.
The Kraken's next two selections look as if they came straight from Paq's article, taking a D and G to round out their 3 selections in the Top 20. Frans Eller was a top rated G prospect (projected by Boob to be the best prospect in the draft in fact) and the first G taken in the draft.
Again, Depth appears to be subjective as Carolina drafted 8 players - in line with league averages.

Colorado Raptors
[Image: Colorado.png]

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: LW, RW, G
Paq Evaluated Focus: Top Lines (LW/RW), Depth (G)

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Of Colorado's 10 draft picks, only 3 were outside the top 60. Their first 3 picks were inside the top 20.
Colorado filled out a potential star studded future first line with C (#1), RW (#3), and LW (#34) in the first four rounds.
Colorado won the Sven Svenson sweepstakes after he inexplicably fell in the draft.
The Raptors largely drafted in line with Paq's evaluation of need, including taking a depth G at #54.

Detroit Falcons

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: C, D
Paq Evaluated Focus: Potential

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Detroit also drafted players primarily in the Top 60, with only 2 of their 10 drafted players being drafted at the 60 mark. Detroit also had strong draft picks heading into the draft, with 3 picks in the top 12, 5 in the top 25, and 7 in the top 30. 23% of the first 30 players selected will be packing their bags to head for Detroit to start their career.
The Falcons were noted to have strong depth in their system already and with their wealth of picks surely re-stocked their cupboard with talent. They hit their positions of need in a strong Swedish D at #2 and talented British C at #11. Detroit had a balanced draft across that includes taking the second G in the draft at #32.
Paq's Evaluated Focus of Potential was executed, aided by Detroit's draft circumstances.
Detroit passed on Sven Svenson twice.

Halifax Raiders

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: LW, RW, D
Paq Evaluated Focus: Depth (LW/RW), Potential (D)

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Halifax also had the luxury of primarily picking players in the Top 60, with 5 of their 7 picks in that range.
The Raiders had a clear focus on D going into the draft, with their first 2 selections (both in the Top 20) checking off that box. Both of these D were highly rated and should provide the potential needed for Halifax to have a strong blue line for the foreseeable future.
Halifax then moved to build out it's depth at LW/RW, with their next 3 selections alternating between RW and LW.
Despite only having 3 C's on the roster, Halifax did not select a C until pick #74.

Kelowna Knights
[Image: SMJHL-Knights2.png]

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: None
Paq Evaluated Focus: Potential

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Kelowna's roster was rated highly going into the draft, with no specific areas of need. The Knights responded with selecting the lowest number of players across the league with only adding 5 players to their roster.
The Knights primarily selected FWD's with their 5 picks, all before the end of the 5th round.
Kelowna had the opportunity to draft Sven Svenson but decided that was something they didn't want to do.

Newfoundland Berserkers
[Image: SMJHL-Berserkers.png]

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: RW, D, G
Paq Evaluated Focus: Top Lines, Depth

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Newfoundland drafted the most players of any team, with 20 players selected. 12 of those selections came outside of the Top 60, perhaps reflecting a "spray and pray" technique. One has to wonder how all those rookies are going to eat.
The Berserkers only had 2 picks in the Top 30 and opted to select a LW and D with those picks. Sven understands he wasn't going top 5 and also gets that an 80's high school Chad with surprisingly redeeming qualities is tough competition. Given a need at RW there could be a situation where high flying Steve Harrington is asked to play his off wing.
Newfoundland hit on their need for a G at pick #33, one pick after Detroit selected A Jobin.
Given their need for Depth, Newfoundland seems to have accomplished that by nearly adding a full roster of rookies to their locker room.

St. Louis Scarecrows

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: C, LW, RW, D
Paq Evaluated Focus: Depth (C/LW/RW), Top Lines (D)

Fun Facts and Random Observations

St. Louis drafted the second fewest number of players with 6 players added. 5 of these 6 players were added in the Top 60.
The Scarecrows selected 3 straight D, reflecting their need to build out a top line D pairing.
St. Louis only selected 2 FWD's despite needing depth at the position. Perhaps St. Louis management disagreements with Paq's depth assessment.
G Jason Voorhees is literally a psychotic murder with an estimated 157 confirmed kills. One whether has the discipline or mental fortitude to play G, which is reflected in his draft position.

Vancouver Whalers
[Image: Vancouver.png]

Paq Evaluated Draft Needs: C, LW, RW, G
Paq Evaluated Focus:Potential (C/LW/RW), Depth (G)

Fun Facts and Random Observations

Vancouver came into the draft needing potential at the FW position. Their first 3 selections of LW/RW reflect that need.
The Whalers selected a depth G at pick #40, the 4th G taken in the draft.
Lligma Broomstick's parents have a sense of humor considering the name they gave their baby boy.
Vancouver determined their need at C was not the dire, waiting until their last pick to make a selection at the position.