S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions

S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions

ml002
Registered
Classless, Assless, Deaf, and Dumb

#122

03-28-2020, 09:21 PM

03-28-2020, 09:16 PMLordBirdman Wrote:
Quote:Katth - Toronto will not finish last in the league

I mean absolute zero disrespect to Toronto (in fact, I think the North Stars will be a scary team before the SHL knows it and have a lot of respect for Toronto's front office), but this is statement is more silly than bold. Toronto will indeed finish last and it won't even be close. Toronto is a rebuilding team with a weak lineup which is exacerbated by the fact that they play in a very strong division.

I will begin my dissertation on why Toronto will finish last by leveraging the brain trust at the Casino. Everybody knows the smartest people in Las Vegas work for the bookmakers and the SHL is no different. The SHL Casino is similarly filled with big brains that expertly modeled the over/under on wins for every team for S53, with real SHL dollars at stake. Toronto's over/under for wins this year is 10.5, 6 games lower than the next team (Texas). Of the 5 lowest teams by Casino over/under, Toronto is far and away the lowest and the remaining four teams are within 2 games of each other. The ranking of the Casino over/under for the bottom 5 teams, from lowest to highest, are as follows: Toronto (10.5), Texas (16.5), Tampa Bay (17.5), Minnesota (18.5), West Kendall (18.5). Given the analytical minds present at the Casino, it seems highly unlikely that one of the other bottom 5 teams will finish lower than Toronto given the aforementioned delta in expected wins.

While this indicator is significant, an even better indicator of expected success is roster TPE. Of the previously mentioned expected bottom 5 teams, Toronto has the lowest average and median TPE at 686 and 605, respectively. Toronto is over 100 TPE lower than the next team in both average and median team TPE. The picture becomes even grimmer when you exclude Toronto’s goalie position, as Toronto’s stellar net minder Harry Carpet bolsters the team’s overall statistics. See below for a table of the expected bottom 5 team rosters by position and TPE.

Clearly Toronto has the worst roster. While Carpet surely will steal a few games, it won’t be enough for Toronto to finish better than last.

This analysis is also excluding the newfound ability for Toronto to actively tank with crappy tactics. I’m of the belief that if Toronto finds themselves contending for the playoffs, they will switch tactics to something weird like a mid-90’s neutral zone trap. Simply put, the switch to FHM should allow Toronto to actively tank if they so choose.

Lastly, Toronto will finish in last place due to the strength of their division and associated strength of schedule. The North Stars play in the Great Lakes Division alongside the Hamilton Steelhawks, Chicago Syndicate, and Buffalo Stampede. Each of these teams made the playoffs last year and look to do so again this year. I asked Toronto’s GM, @ml002, how committed to tanking he was this year and he stated:

Quote:As much as we are committed to tanking I think it just comes down to the division we play in. The Great Lakes boasts three playoff caliber teams which I think easily just means we're likely to get bullied in division which makes up the majority of our schedule

In conclusion, Toronto will finish last place in the SHL in S53.