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SHN: An Introduction to Advanced Stats
#1

Being in a lot of Locker Rooms, I have been seeing a lot of messages on what Advanced Stats really mean. If you are new to Advanced Stats then it can be a lot to look at, and googling things sometimes leads you to get even more confused about what everything means. Hopefully what me and Smallinowski put together can help you understand it, and get used to it going further. If you guys got any questions about Adv stats, or something is not explained enough pm me, or just post and we will respond. Thank you.


PDO:

So PDO is kind of a “luck” attribute, and how much luck your player is having. Over 100 PDO means that you are lucky, and under 100 PDO means that you are unlucky. The whole theory is that teams will eventually regress(or go up) to 100, and head towards the average over time. So, being above 100 is thought of to be lucky, as they would eventually head towards the average. But in a simulation game like this, it could mean that being over 100 PDO also means good? Time will have to tell on that because of the way some teams are really bad, and the parity isnt there yet.
To calculate PDO is Shooting percentage plus save percentage. (Goals For /Shots For )+(Goals against /Shots against)



GF/60 and GA/60:

So these ones are pretty simple to understand. GF/60  is the count of goals for that player's team gets while that player is on the ice per 60 minutes.  And GA/60 is the count of goals that the opponents team gets while the players is on the ice per 60 minutes. So what you want is a positive differential, so that your goal for/60 is higher than your goals against/60.

Example of this is at the time of writing, Tyler Tougard plays 15:07 of ice time a game for Texas, and Bobby Sharp plays 21:33 minutes a game for Buffalo. Sharp plays over 6 minutes more a game than Tougard, however they both have GF/60 of 5. This means that although Sharp has a higher total GF on the season, they’re both playing equally well in the role that they’ve been given, and that Texas scores at a similar rate while Tougard is on the ice that Buffalo scores with Sharp. It implies that if every team ran a 33/33/33% split of line playing time, the two players would have equal amounts of team goals accounted for while they were on the ice.

SF/60 and SA/60:

So like GF and GA /60, SF and SA/60 are the same reason. So SF/60 is the count of shots for that player's team while that player is on the ice. And SA/60 is the count of shots against that player’s team while that player is on the ice.


CF and CA:

So to understand CF and CA we have to understand what Corsi is.
Corsi is: “Any shot attempt (goals, shots on net, misses and blocks) outside of the shootout”

So Corsi For is the count of Corsi for that players team while that player is on the ice. So any shot that your team shoots while you're one the ice counts for your corsi.
And Corsi Against is the count of Corsi against that players team while that player is on the ice. So that any shot that is against your team shoots while you're on the ice counts for your corsi against.


Note: The difference between SF/60 and SA/60 versus CF and CA is (needs to be done).
The difference between SF/60 and CF/60 can be thought of as following: All SF on net also count as a CF, but not all CF counts as a SF. Plenty of shot attempts throughout the game won’t count as a shot on goal, because they’ll get blocked, or miss the net.


 
CF%:

Percentage of total Corsi while that player is on the ice that is for that player's team. In other words, what percent of the shot attempts while this player is on the ice occurs for their team. CF*100/(CF+CA). So let's look at it in a real scenario.

While we are writing there is only 2 games simmed, the leader in CF% is Simon Leblanc of the LAP. He had 44 Corsi For(So 44 shots on the opponent goalie while he is on the ice) vs 9 Corsi Against(So 9 shots on his goalie). So 44*100 = 4400. 4400/(44+9): 4400/53 = 83%

Now the lowest CF% is Cal Clucker of the Toronto North Stars. Just like Leblanc, he has 11 Corsi For vs 76 Corsi Against. So doing the calculation again of 11*100 = 1100/87 = 12.6% CF.

So taking the most balanced CF lets take a look at DeMaricus Smyth, with 43 Shots for and 43 Shots against, which gets to 50% CF.

So what does all of this mean? It really shows if a person is driving play, as when you are on the ice, if you get more shots on the opponents goalie than the other way around, it means that you are driving play out of the zone and into the opponent's ice. Which means that you are less of a liability on the ice as  there are less chances of the opponent to score while you are out on the ice.
A lot of people consider corsi as a proxy for “time of possession.” A 60% CF can also be thought of as a player’s team has possession of the puck 60% of the time while they are on on the ice. In fact, in the NHL, it’s been shown that CF % has a better correlation with victories than pure possession time.

Team corsi

Similar to how individuals can have a CF% rating to determine how well they drive play, the team overall can also have its own CF% to determine if they’re dominating the possession game as a whole. This gives us a team corsi for, and a team corsi against, and a way to determine how the team as a whole is performing in terms of CF%. Take the following chart for example: This chart shows each team in the SHL, plotted by their corsi for and corsi against. On the X axis, it’s a team’s total shot attempts throughout the duration of the season. The farther right on the graph a team is, the more shot attempts they’ve taken as a team throughout the year. Additionally, if a team is to the right of the dotted line, they take an above average amount of shot attempts compared to the rest of the SHL. On the Y axis, is the team’s total shot attempts against during the season. The lower on the graph a team is, the less shot attempts they give up per game, while being below the dotted line means better defensively than the SHL average. Teams in the bottom-right quadrant dominate the possession game, taking more more shot attempts than their opponents. Teams in the top left fail to generate as many shots attempts per game as their opponents. Teams in the lower left play a defensive style, or maybe trap system, where both them and their opponent generate a below average shot attempts per game. Finally, teams in the top right play high tempo, offensively themed game, where both them and their opponent take an above average amount of shots on net.


[Image: team_corsi.png]



CF% Relative

So to calculate CF% Relative the formula is (Player Corsi For% while on ice)-(Team’s Corsi For% while off ice). So the easiest way to see this is how good the player for the team. If the % is positive, then when that player is on the ice, then the team is better. If that % is negative, then the team is performing lower than average when he is on the ice.

Though it gets kinda weird when you are above 50% in CF% and have a negative CF%  Relative. But that just means that you are good, but your team is dominant, and is driving a lot of play.

FF and FA

So some people might not know what Fenwick is, because Corsi is a lot more accepted in the adv stats community.

So Fenwick is “any unblocked shot attempt (goals, shots on net and misses) outside of the shootout”. So it is like corsi, but it does not account for blocked shots.

So like Corsi For and Corsi Against, Fenwick For is the  count of Fenwick the player has while the player is on the ice. And Fenwick Against is the count of Fenwick against the player while that player is on the ice.

So you can see there is some difference  between Fenwick F and A versus Corsi F and A. And you can often see that Fenwick counts are lower than Corsi.

FF%
Just like CF% is the same concept, FF*100/(FF+FA) to get the FF%.

So Looking at the same players as before

For Simon Leblanc, he has 32 FF and 8 FA, with a 80% FF%. So the difference is that Leblanc has 44 CF(12 Shots blocked) and 8 FA(1 shot blocked).

For DeMaricus Smyth he has 35 FF and 37 FA, with a 48.6 FF%. So the difference is that Smyth had 43 CF(8 shots blocked) and 43 CA(6 Shots blocked)

For Cal Clucker he has 9 FF and 58 FA, with a 13.4 FF%. So the difference is that Clucker has 11 CF(3 Shots blocked) and 76 CA(18 shots blocked).

FF% Relative

Just like CF% Relative, FF% Relative so (Player Fenwick For% while on ice)-(Team’s Fenwick For% while off ice). So the easiest way to see this is how good the player for the team. If the % is positive, then when that player is on the ice, then the team is better. If that % is negative, then the team is performing lower than average when he is on the ice.


Split pay between Smallinowski7 and Me.

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Explanation of Advanced Stats


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#2

This is great for anyone not too familiar with advance stats!

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#3

Toronto gets to be on top for once.

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#4

Thank you for this.

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#5

04-01-2020, 02:10 PMRich Wrote: Thank you for this.

our talk in the podcast helped with the inspiration with it.

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Czechoslovakia PROFILE || UPDATE || RAGE. Rage 
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Explanation of Advanced Stats


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