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Toronto Through 15 Games (An Analysis)
#1
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2020, 06:17 PM by RainDelay.)

FHM has failed Toronto. Or maybe Toronto has failed FHM. I understand that the North Stars' prospect pool is deep, and brighter days are absolutely on the horizon, but it is an undeniable fact that right now, there is nothing but bleakness. I get that Toronto is supposed to be bad, but I would bet that this wouldn't be happening in STHS, and I would bet a healthy amount.

Before we dive deep into what's going on, let's take a look at some of the objective facts:

Toronto North Stars, through 15 games:
Wins: 0
Losses: 15
Overtime Losses: 0 (therefore, OT appearances: 0)
Points: You guessed it, 0.
Goals For: 19
Goals Against: 97
Goal Differential: -78

-78! That looks bad. How bad is it, you may ask? Let's find out. Keep in mind we are through 15 games.

There are seven teams with a negative goal differential out of the sixteen in the league. The seven teams, ranked, are:

Specters New Orleans Specters: -5
Jets Winnipeg Jets: -13
Renegades Texas Renegades: -17
Platoon West Kendall Platoon: -18
Chiefs Minnesota Chiefs: -27
Barracuda Tampa Bay Barracuda: -38
Stars Toronto North Stars: -78

In virtually ANY other season, this article would be about the Barracuda and people would be saying "get a load of how bad Tampa Bay is". Well, they still are saying that, but Toronto overshadows it in a big way. Take Tampa Bay's dreadful goal differential. You could double that, and it would be -76, still 2 goals better than the North Stars.

Now let's see where it went off the rails for Toronto this season. Who knows, the sim is kinda wacky so far. Maybe they lost one game 30-0. Hey, I was around for the first PBE sim, so I know these scores are within the realm of possibilities.

Teams above .500 have handled Toronto very well: (Games in bold fall into the "Holy Fuck" category)

Panthers Loss 5-1 @ LAP on Opening Night
Rage Loss 7-1 vs MAN in Game 2
Rage Loss 6-0 @ MAN in Game 11
Rage Loss 10-0 @ MAN in Game 15
syndicate Loss 6-1 @ CHI in Game 3
syndicate Loss 5-4 @ CHI in Game 6
syndicate Loss 8-0 vs CHI in Game 12
Wolfpack Loss 10 -2 @ NEW in Game 4
Blizzard Loss 5-2 vs EDM in Game 5
Steelhawks Loss 8-0 @ HAM in Game 8
Steelhawks Loss 7-2 @ HAM in Game 13
Specters Loss 7-0 @ NO in Game 9
Specters Loss 5-2 vs NO in Game 10
Stampede Have not played yet
pride Have not played yet
Dragons Have not played yet.


Teams with a winning record have given the Stars a proverbial beat down, and it's no surprise. It is also entirely possible that the fact they haven't won a single game yet is because they have played 13 out of 15 games against the "good teams". Or maybe some of these teams just look good because they play Toronto.

It's just two games, but how have the worse teams fared against them in the early going?

Chiefs Loss 3-2 vs MIN in Game 7
Platoon Loss 5-2 vs WKP in Game 14
Jets Have not played yet
Barracuda Have not played yet
Renegades Have not played yet
Stars I bet they wish they could face themselves, although they'd probably lose.

Toronto is looking a bit more competitive, albeit not much, in the two games they've played with lesser opponents. The worst non-Toronto teams are the Renegades and of course Tampa Bay, so it may help Toronto's cause that they have not played them at all yet. Maybe they can squeak out a win.

Before the season, I doubted that a team could be this bad. I put 400k on Toronto winning more than 10 games. How wrong will I be?

Very wrong. I don't even think Toronto's chances to accomplish this feat is a nonzero number at this point. Was I misinformed? Perhaps, but eh, it's only 400k, which I am more than making up for with this article and some of my other works of late.

Let's push the envelope a bit more and head back to what hockey all boils down to, and that would be goals.

For a quick refresher, Toronto has found the back of the net a mere 19 times, and have let in an unsightly 97 goals, all told resulting in a -78 goal differential. For the next section, we're going to be diving back in the STHS machine as far as we need to go to prove a point. Keep in mind, this -78 goal differential is after 15 games. FIFTEEN.

(There are 50 games in a season. For the sake of this article, let's pretend Toronto does the unthinkable, loses 50 games, and the goal trends continue on as such. 15*3.33333=50, so their stats will be multiplied by that number in order to find stats indicative of a complete season.)

S53 Toronto North Stars: 0-50-0, Goals for: 63, Goals against: 323, Goal differential: -260

Letting in 323 goals would be ungodly. Scoring 260 fewer goals than those they give up would somehow be even worse. How would this stack up against some of the worse teams of the past few seasons?

The worst GD team for each season going back to S43 (10 seasons ago), and any other remarkably bad numbers will appear on the list proper. Hell, I'll also assume the same for the Barracuda of this season, and "simulate" the rest to show how FHM is doing teams dirty.

Team/Goals For/Goals Against/Goal Differential
Steelhawks S49 Hamilton Steelhawks, 137, 168, -31
Wolfpack S46 New England Wolfpack, 125, 160, -35
Riot S45 Seattle Riot, 120, 157, -37
Chiefs S51 Minnesota Chiefs, 137, 175, -38
Rage S48 Manhattan Rage, 142, 188, -46
Renegades S52 Texas Renegades, 135, 182, -47
Riot S44 Seattle Riot, 131, 184, -53
pride S43 San Francisco Pride, 136, 190, -54
Chiefs S50 Minnesota Chiefs, 124, 182, -58
Renegades S50 Texas Renegades, 131, 191, -60
Barracuda S47 Tampa Bay Barracuda, 130, 193, -63
Barracuda S52 Tampa Bay Barracuda, 128, 192, -64
pride S44 San Francisco Pride, 106, 176, -70
Barracuda S53 Tampa Bay Barracuda, 77, 203, -126 *Projection, season is only 15 games in.
Stars S53 Toronto North Stars, 63, 323, -260 *Projection, season is only 15 games in.

This is what this data looks like conditionally formatted, for easier viewing and because I love to format numbers conditionally.

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That is a whole lot of red for Toronto. If this happens anywhere near to this extreme, it will be tough for any team to demonstrate more futility than the S53 North Stars (TB ain't so hot either). This just goes to show that FHM is all about letting the bad teams know that they are bad. As I said earlier, in any other season, we'd be talking about what the hell is wrong with Tampa Bay. Instead, I'm here writing about how Toronto is the worst team in 53 seasons, and will be the worst team for another 53. (Can't promise I'll follow up on this article in Season 106, but you never know.)

Will Toronto go 0-50-0 with a -260 goal differential? I'd say probably not. I could see them getting a few, and by that I literally mean at the most, three. But that's better than zero. It won't be enough to keep their figures off charts like these, though. They have to play Tampa Bay four times, Texas twice and Minnesota once more. You have to figure they'll win one of those, right?

It is worth noting that my point in this article is not to rag on Toronto. I fully believe in them, and there are MUCH better days ahead. They've got an awesome future, but my point was simply to look at how FHM has treated the lesser teams with no mercy at all, and how the scope of the SHL has been altered with a new sim engine.

Cheers, Toronto, and the rest of the community! I'll probably follow this up at season's end to see if I was right, wrong, and by how much.

RD out.

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#2
(This post was last modified: 04-06-2020, 06:18 PM by RainDelay.)

1431 words and a bit of analysis. Ready for grading.

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#3

Leaf team bad

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#4

No big surprise, but we also know we won't be the worst team forever. Things will turn around.

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#5

04-07-2020, 07:57 AMCarpy48 Wrote: No big surprise, but we also know we won't be the worst team forever. Things will turn around.

Im pulling for you guys now that the "dude the LR is just ML and Carpy" meme is dead.
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#6

04-07-2020, 09:55 AMgolden_apricot Wrote:
04-07-2020, 07:57 AMCarpy48 Wrote: No big surprise, but we also know we won't be the worst team forever. Things will turn around.

Im pulling for you guys now that the "dude the LR is just ML and Carpy" meme is dead.

Yeahthat

Really hope Toronto can make it back before too long with all the youth in their team, considering how bad the team ML had to work with when he took over was.

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#7

THEY GOT A POINT!

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#8

I blame Simon for pushing me this far

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#9

04-07-2020, 07:57 AMCarpy48 Wrote: No big surprise, but we also know we won't be the worst team forever. Things will turn around.

On the bright side you’re a stud goaltender


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First ever Yukon Malamute draft pick (1st overall S65)






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#10

04-07-2020, 12:14 PMTnlAstatine Wrote: THEY GOT A POINT!

Ahh

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#11

Better times are ahead... we hope #TrustTheProcess

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#12

Finally got that OT loss! A big step actually.

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#13

"I bet they wish they could face themselves, although they'd probably lose."

Fucking hell man lmao

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#14

04-07-2020, 04:07 PMACapitalChicago Wrote: "I bet they wish they could face themselves, although they'd probably lose."

Fucking hell man lmao

FHM is ruthlessly helping the jokes write themselves lmfao

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#15

Evgueni Marmeladov 4 save shutout legend

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