(1826 Words with 20 graphs)

Hello and welcome to the 2nd half of my week 1 game rating analysis. For part 2 please go to the following: SMJHL Eastern Conference Game Rating Analysis Week 1. As with the last set, this data is from games simulated up to April 5th, 2020. This time we will be covering the Western Conference teams, Anchorage Armada, Colorado Raptors, Kelowna Knights, Anaheim Outlaws, and the Vancouver Whalers.

Anchorage Armada  
The Anchorage Armada are sitting at the top of the Western Conference with a record of 7-4-1. This actually ties the Colorado Raptors with 15 points, but Anchorage wins with their goal differential of 39-30 (goal differential per game of 3.25-2.50).


Looking at Anchorage as a whole, we can see that for the most part the team is performing as expected, with a single player playing decently above their role expectations. There is a subset of players playing just above expectations as well. Looking at the OGR, the majority of the team is playing as expected with a slight shift up when compared to the rest of the league. The DGR is even better, with most of the team playing above expectations for their role.



Looking at the defensive group, we see that the team is playing slightly above expectations but in line with the league as a whole. Looking at the OGR, the defense is performing as expected on the offensive side of the game. This indicates that the teams offensive prowess is not being offset by outperforming defensemen. Looking at the DGR, we see that there is a shift towards the upper end for the defenseman. However, this shift is in line with the overall league.



The forwards are a little more spread out. Overall, we have a good spread of how players are performing in their roles, with the majority performing as expected, but some playing above expectations. This trend continues with the OGR and DGR, indicating that the forward group is helping the team as they are expected to.




The goalie tandem for Anchorage actually is very much performing as expected. This seems to indicate that no matter what is happening around them, they are able to keep level with where they need. Given the rest of the team also performing right around expectations, we do not expect any large dropoff or rise in the team come the end of the season and should stay on track.
Colorado Raptors


The Colorado Raptors are tied with the Anchorage Armada in points with an identical record of 7-4-1 with the tie breaker being the goal differential of 39-32 (goal differential per game of 3.25-2.67). These numbers are so close to each other that the Game Ratings may give us a better possible prediction of how the team is actually performing.



Looking at the team overall, we see that the team is very well spread between playing at expectations and above expectations. As we look at the OGR, the team is playing the same with a single blip in the 70-75 range. Defensively, we see the same kind of spread as the overall game rating.



As for the defense group, they are performing primarily as expected with a shift towards above expectations for their roles. This holds true for their OGR as well. However, when we look at the DGR we notice that they are shifted more towards above expectations. This is a good thing for a defensive group and no outliers . In all actuality, the closest thing to an outlier is that there is a subset of 2 players playing at expectations instead of above them.



Analyzing the forwards, we can see that they are performing above expectations overall. This shift in overall is both a product of the OGR and the DGR, where we see the forwards are playing very well defensively compared to expectations. None of these are outliers compared to the rest of the league but they are definitely spread more towards the upper end rather than the lower end.



Colorado’s goalie tandem are performing above average compared to their expectations. This leads to the ability for a slight drop in performance but when compared to the rest of the league they are right in the median values for the league. However, there is no starter that is stealing games for the team. Even given that, if the team needs their backup they are able to rely upon them just as well.
Kelowna Knights  
The Kelowna Knights are currently sitting at 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 6-7-1 for 13 points. They have a goal differential of 29-48, with a goal differential per game of 2.07-3.43.



Taking a look at the overall team game ratings, the team is playing above average for expectations. They are not playing very high above, while being slightly above the overall league average. This is driven largely by their DGR and not their OGR, indicating that they are performing better defensively than expected.

Taking a look at Kelowna’s defensive group, we see a good spread of players playing how they are expected to slightly above expectations. Offensively, the group is performing at expectations. However, their DGR shows that there are a few players playing above expectations which is helping the defensive group overall.

Well then, the forwards are performing very well. Overall, they are performing above expectations. Not exceptional, but good. Offensively, they are performing just above average. The big takeaway is how the forwards are performing defensively. The majority of the players are between 60-75 DGR, indicating that they are helping out defensively more than expected of their roles.

On to the goaltending tandem. This team boasts 2 goalies who are performing very similar to each other. Both are playing slightly above average (60-70) and close to each other. Neither goalie is stealing games, but are reliable in net for their team which is helpful. This indicates that they are less likely to have a dropoff in performance, hopefully.
Anaheim Outlaws  
The Anaheim Outlaws are sitting in 4th in the Western Conference with a record of 5-6-1 for 11 points. They also sit at a goal differential of 32-43, for a goal differential per game of 2.67-3.58. They are sitting a single overtime loss ahead of the last place team in the Western Conference.

The team overall is performing with a good bell curve of expectations, ranging from 45-75 with the majority in the 55-65 range. Looking at the teams OGR, we also see that the team is performing slightly above average with tails at slightly below and above. However, when we look at the team's DGR we see something interesting. The majority of the players are in the average range with some above average (50-65). Then we have a single player at each of the 65-75 range and another performing exceptionally well in the 85-90 range. This last one, is actually an outlier when compared to the entire league, let alone their team.

Taking a look at the defense, we notice a few things. First, that the team overall is playing in that 45-60 range of average to expectations. The only exception is a single defenseman that is playing towards the top of the league for GR. As for OGR, the team is compressed into that 45-60 range indicating that none of the defenseman are performing beyond expectations offensively. This changes when we look at their DGR. The team has 3 sets, a set of 3 players playing average to their roles, a pair of players playing above average, and then a single player near the top of the league (an outlier when compared to the league). This spread shows that there are some definite gaps between roles and performance from the defensive unit.

Looking at the forwards, we see more of the same. The forwards overall GRs are primarily in the 55-60 range indicating that they are performing right around expectations with a shift towards above expectations. This same pattern holds true for the teams DGR, with a shift towards above expectations for their OGR. All of this together shows that the forwards are performing not only slightly above their expectations, but also towards the upper part of the quartiles.

As has been seen with others in the Western Conference, the goalie tandem is playing right around where they are expected to be performing, with a slight difference between the two goalies. However, this difference does not indicate that either goalie is standing on their head and making saves they shouldn’t be making.
Vancouver Whalers  
The Vancouver Whalers currently sit in last in the Western Conference with a 5-6-0 record for 10 points. They are a single point behind the Outlaws with a game in hand however. They also sit with a goal differential of 29-31 for a goal differential per game of 2.64-2.82. This is actually better than the Outlaws whom they sit behind in the standings.

There is some interesting information here. Even though the majority of the team is in the average range, there are some players who are playing well above what is expected. This is obvious when we look at DGR, where one of the players is actually performing as an outlier. As for OGR, even giving the higher overall GR the team as a whole is performing average to above average on the offensive side.

It looks like we found our outlier on the defense. When looking at the group, they are performing near expectations overall as well as offensively. However, we have a defender playing well above where they are expected to. Otherwise, they have a decent spread from average to above average everywhere else.


The forward group is much more spread out with how they have been performing. The majority of them are playing at or just above expectations for all categories. However, we have a couple performing very well defensively compared to where they are expected to. This helps explain why, even with their few wins, their goal differential isn’t shifted more against them.

Vancouver is the first team that has run just a single goalie. Even given this, their goalie is playing very well, with a GR between 75-85 indicating that they are outperforming the expectations of the team. This is huge as it greatly helps the team. However, they have to be careful of overly relying on a single goalie in case this number drops closer to average.
And with all of that, we have finished going through a quick look at all 10 teams. It is definitely interesting looking at how the teams perform using the game ratings rather than traditional stats, and some of the “fancy stats” that are typically looked at. All-in-all, it is very interesting to see that there are actual differences between the conferences, with the Eastern Conference performing above expectations for the player’s roles. This could be due to the schedule and we may see these numbers level off over time.