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S53 SMJHL PT #4 - Make the Case
#31
(This post was last modified: 04-15-2020, 07:39 PM by JURT.)

11. The Colorado Raptors have the best goal horn in the league.
Since the beginning of the season, I heard a lot fans from across the league, and even some of the players, arguing about who has the best goal horn in the SMJHL. Let's end this debate once and for all : we do.  We do, because we chose as a group in a survey between only the cream of the crop of goal horns. We ended with an almost unanimous choice, and we can't obviously all be wrong. Therefore, it is clear that de Colorado Raptors have the best goal horn in the league. Please let us sound it more often.

2. The points record for a season in the SMJHL is 72, by Jagger Fouquette in S50. Edward Williams of Detroit will snap that record this season.
I always hated mathematics in school. I much prefered science, where we could learn about dinosaurs and stuff. But this question doesn't need an answer about dinosaurs, it needs an answer about mathematics, so here goes : the maths says Williams will exactly tie this record. So far, he has recorded 43 points in 30 games. This is 1.433333 point per game, 71.6666666 points over the season. We obviously round this to 72, which means the most probable scenario is Edwards tying the record.

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#32

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1. The wins record for a season in the SMJHL is 42. Detroit will beat that this season.

This one will be a False for me. To finish at their current win percentage, they would finish with 42 wins exactly, tying the record. The best they can finish with is 44 wins. At this time, I do not believe that Detroit will run the table and finish unbeaten in their final 20 games played. I predict, looking at their remaining schedule that they'll finish the season doubling the number of losses they currently have.

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4. The Anchorage Armada will end up finishing first in the league, beating Detroit to first spot.

This one will also be a False in my book, as at the time of this prediction, the Armada will enter tonight's action 10 points back from the Falcons, with the Falcons having an additional 3 games in hand. The Armada are on pace to finish the season with 28 to 30 wins, and will most likely have at least one more overtime loss this season. We would expect their them to finish roughly 60 Points this season. The Falcons are already at 50 Points and have 20 full games remaining. 


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12. Despite a so-so start to the season, defending 4-Star Cup champions Anaheim will finish the season with a .600 win % or higher.

This has the best potential to be True. A solid locker room supporting each other, the Outlaws have won 7 of their last 10. Of those losses, one was to Kelowna, another was a tough luck 1-0 loss to Vancouver, and West leading Anchorage. Even with the early season injury to Strom Chamberlain's hand, the Outlaws have been able to see their play improve with a young blue line allowing the most goals in the West. Only 23 goals have been allowed in those last 10, where 73 had been let up in their first 22 Games, which was a full goal more per game. If they continue the tighter play in the defensive zone, and the play of Chamberlain returns along with the steady play of Separa Borro, the Outlaws will finish over .600 and have the best potential to Win the West.
#33

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1. The wins record for a season in the SMJHL is 42. Detroit will beat that this season.

Nah they have to play Vancouver a few more times and that's definitely going to sink them. Anchorage is going to do well against them as well. It's a long season, and Detroit players are going to need to take a couple nights off to keep in fighting shape for the playoffs. Party life might also get to them a bit. It'll be fun to see if they can keep up their current pace with all these factors weighing in.


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3. The Vancouver Whalers are the biggest overachievers of this season.

If by "overachieve," you mean beat the expectations of the biased mainstream media? In that case, yes. Vancouver understood that they had some holes in their roster, but also some very good players. If Covid doesn't lay an egg behind them, this Whalers team has the potential to win most games and steal any game.

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4. The Anchorage Armada will end up finishing first in the league, beating Detroit to first spot.

I begrudgingly admit that the Armada are obviously skilled as the top team in the west, so they are pretty good and are Detroit's biggest competition. I just don't see them making up a 10 point deficit with Detroit having 3 games in hand. The Armada seem to have problems on nights where they really shouldn't run into any trouble. It's a consistency issue. If they come into a 7 game series against Detroit at the end of the year they definitely have a shot, but Detroit is undoubtedly going to be the top dog for the regular season.

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#34

2. The points record for a season in the SMJHL is 72, by Jagger Fouquette in S50. Edward Williams of Detroit will snap that record this season.

Williams will snap the record for points, because with over 16 games left and 22 points remaining for the record, he has what it takes since he's well over a point per game points wise. And with Detroit being the highest scoring team in the league, and with him being sort of the dynamo with some incredibly talented linemates, I don't see why he wont break the record.


8. No team is strong enough to stop the finals being Detroit vs Anchorage this season.

The SMJHL is simply not predictable enough to make a huge generalization like this. The league is nothing if not unpredictable, and the falcons and armada have both dropped games to some less than stellar teams over the course of the season. It is not such a reach to say that since even the Maine Timber have beaten the Detroit Falcons twice, they could pull some magic especially as their rookies get more TPE into their builds.


15. Kelowna will finish third overall despite having a negative goal differential.

Although Kelowna is 3rd overall currently, and they had a great draft and have a really good roster, I have a hard time believing they'll finish 3rd with a negative goal differential especially since they're only one game over a much deeper St.Louis Scarecrows, and the Crows have 3 games in hand. Maybe its just me, but I don't see it happening.




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#35
(This post was last modified: 04-16-2020, 10:16 PM by honkerrs.)

5) The Esa Anrikkanen (Top Rookie) and Tom Corcoran (Top Goalie) trophies will be won by the same player
This is actually a really interesting question that could be debated very heavily.  As it stands right now, without a doubt, Cal Covid or Cale Amundsen will win the ROTY.  It just depends who doesn’t turn cold down the stretch here.  They are both in the top echelon of goalies in every stat and have been keeping their team in it basically every game.  The question is will any veteran goaltender finally turn it on here late?  Recently Sergie Potvinov has been stepping it up but still waiting on older Goalies such as Elizabeth Doyle or Cillian Kavanagh to step up more.

8) No team is strong enough to stop the finals being Detroit vs Anchorage this season.
As we have started to see a couple weeks now past the halfway point of the season, it is becoming a possibility that other teams have caught on to Anchorage’s playstyle.  The Western Division is really anyone’s race with, at the time of me writing this, 3 teams all within 3 points of each other in the division.  This recent slump by the Armada have opened a lot more possibilities for the lucky team to face Detroit in the finals from the West.

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#36

10. Carolina rookie Adam Friedland will set the SMJHL record for PIMs in the 425 TPE Cap Era (126 by Luc-Pierre Lespineau-Lebrunette) this season.

Undoubtedly, Friedland is the undisputed fighting champion of the SMJHL - however, Friedland is classy - not a goon like Lebrunette. Friedland has a total of 8 fights (5 of which he has won) - that's 40 PIM out of his 56 total. Let's comapre these numbers to Valentin Kaleshnikov (certified goon). With a laughable 1-2 fight record, Only 15 of Kalashnikov's total of 63 PIM are the result of fighting. Detroits Ed Williams is a similar story - with only ONe fight under his belt, Williams has a league leading 76 PIM resulting from dirty plays with absolutely no honor.

For scale, here is a percentage based chart for the top 5 PIM Leaders:
Ed Williams: 7.4% PIM from altercations
Valentin Kalashnikov: 23.8% PIM from altercations
Adam Friedland: 71.42% PIM from altercations
Marcus Ohlsson: 0% PIM from altercations
Slimey Snail: 11.6% PIM from altercations


If Friedland ends up breaking the record, (which, he will not, in my opinion), he will do so with respect and integrity. He does not trip, slash, whine or cry. He's a certified beauty who believes in PIM consent. realistically, Ed Williams has a much better chance to break the PIM's record - however, we are now using FHM, the bar has yet to be set. Perhaps when Carolina has a more competitive year with Friedland playing 1st line minutes, he may have a chance.
#37
(This post was last modified: 04-17-2020, 12:41 PM by CrazyMojito.)

1. The wins record for a season in the SMJHL is 42. Detroit will beat that this season.

 - I don' think its likely Detroit will break this record. Currently with an .844% win percentage based off a 50 game season they are on pace to tie with 42, but not beat it. I would expect games to be harder to win at the end of the season and for the Falcons to beat the record they will need to win 17 of their last 18. They still have two games left against both St Louis and Anchorage and will need to win at least 3 out of 4 if they want a chance to beat the record.

4. The Anchorage Armada will end up finishing first in the league, beating Detroit to first spot

 - Anchorage will have to make up 12 points in their final 16 games which isn’t happening, not if the Armada’s last 10 games are any indication. Anchorage has dropped 7 of their last 10 games, and there is some tough competition in the final games including 2 games against Detroit who also has 2 games in hand over Anchorage. Now those games are 4 point games so if Armada are able to steal both of those games they give themselves a chance but Detroit is just too good.

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#38
(This post was last modified: 04-17-2020, 03:43 PM by ThatDamnWalrus.)

3. Not a chance. I wouldn't even call the Whalers "over-achievers". The whalers have one of the strongest GM duos in the league. Just two big fat beauties manning the ship. On top of that they had a great draft, picking up a bunch of studs who are developing nicely, and picked up Sammy Koa in free agency afterwards to finish up the defense. Make no mistakes about it this team is under achieving at this point, and the ceiling is only going up from here.

18. Sammy Koa on the Whalers had his all star spot stolen from him. Sure he might not always show up on the score sheet, but the heart and grit he brings to the ice in unmatched. Just because he doesn't tickle the corsi nerds pickles doesn't mean doesn't have one of the biggest effects on games both on and off the ice. Sammy Koa will make the game next year.

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#39

NSFL Ultimas Week

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#40
(This post was last modified: 04-18-2020, 01:22 PM by RedArrow12c.)

7. Newfoundland will absolutely keep up the surprise of a season they are having. They are one of the most underrated team in the league, and they deserve more credit than they have for performing the way they are with the team they have. That is not to say the team is bad, just that they are very young and inexperienced. Soon, they will be a force in the league.

12. I would be surprised to see Anchorage climb to finish the season with a .600 win percentage. It is just so difficult in this league to overcome a tough start, and despite their talented roster, I just don't see a way where they can get hot enough to go on the streak needed to accrue those wins. They could prove me wrong, but I would be very surprised.

17. I do not think every player on a roster will score a point. Scoring a point is a very difficult task to accomplish at any level, and a level with play this strong surely will result in some without scoring any points. It could be poor luck, where a fourth-liner is stuck playing against a fantastic goalie and is shut out. I just do not foresee this being a reality.
#41

The wins record for a season in the SMJHL is 42. Detroit will beat that this season.
With 28 wins already and 16 games remaining, Detroit will undoubtedly break the season win record. They have been on another win streak as of late and show no signs of slowing down.

The Vancouver Whalers are the biggest overachievers of this season.
The Whalers have been absolute trash the past couple of seasons. But with the heroic play of Stracimir Petrovic, he has brought the team out of the basement and made the team watchable this season.

Every current rostered player in the SMJHL will end the season with at least 1 point.
Alexader Kazur and Blake Feaux will earn a point on the season in the 2nd have. Feaux has averaged 17 minutes on ice per game and should regress to the mean at some point. Kazur only has 8 GP but has looked solid in each outing.

Maine will not only make the playoffs, but make it past the first round.
Maine could easily sneak into the playoffs as the 3rd seed. Newfoundland has been on a losing streak the past 8 games and slipped down the standings. If Maine gets some consistency they could make it in and pull an upset in the 1st round.

Everyone on St. Louis will end the season with 10 or more penalty minutes.
St Louis is notoriously a goon hockey club. Its honestly surprising the whole team doesn't have 50 PIM already, but the referees relaxed approach will end and the team will start racking up the minutes.

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#42

6. Anchorage's Mitchell van der Heijden will break the SMJHL record in the 425 TPE Cap Era of 33 goals in a season.

He absolutely will because he is surrounded by amazing pass first, team first players that won't nothing more than to win and score goals. If we can break history the whole team is on board to do so. Our GMs have found a way to bring together such good chemistry and find just the right lineups to provide our team with the best chance to score every shift. It's something about the Alaskan water that really brings out the best in people, and our team will continue to shift our goal scoring energy towards Heijden

8. No team is strong enough to stop the finals being Detroit vs Anchorage this season.

Keklowna is the only real obstacle to prevent this from being true. If Anchorage can hold off the Knights when they inevitably meet in the semi finals then this prediction is 100% true. When I was a SMJHL free agent oh so long ago my choices for winning boiled down to these two teams, and I went with my gut and decided on the team that has boats. Boats beat falcons every time in real life. That's about as good as a coinflip would provide anyway, and with the new FHM system who knows what will happen.

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#43

1. The wins record for a season in the SMJHL is 42. Detroit will beat that this season.
Detroit has been absolutely insane this season. Currently sitting at 28-4-2, if they continue with their winning they will end the season with around 42 wins. The strength of their schedule will determine whether or not they will top 42 wins. It certainly is possible as they have been tearing up the league. They have a tough stretch of away games in the final quarter of games in the season. It will be the story of the final stretch of games to be sure.

3. The Vancouver Whalers are the biggest overachievers of this season.
The Whalers are a sight to behold. Coming in with not a ton of talent, they certainly have something to prove. The media didn't think that they would be anything coming into the season, but they have proven to not be as much of a bottom feeder as some might have thought. Currently sitting tied for 6th in the standings, they really were over performing compared to what the majority thought. The test will be the final stretch to see if they really should be at the bottom or not.

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#44

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1. The wins record for a season in the SMJHL is 42. Detroit will beat that this season.

The Detroit falcons are currently sitting at 28 wins, 4 losses and 4 OT losses. They currently have 143 goals for and only 61 goals allowed. That’s absolutely ridiculous. They have an 85% winning percentage as well. They clearly have the best team in the SMJHL as much as it pains me to say while being on a team that’s currently at the opposite end of the spectrum. The Falcons are the gold standard right now and I fully expect them to beat the 42 win mark.

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14. Maine will not only make the playoffs, but make it past the first round.

The Maine Timber are currently within the playoff picture. The Kraken are hot on their heels for the last playoff spot in the east. The question is can the Timbers make the playoffs? Well it’s certainly possible but it may be unlikely. The Kraken are a good team and should not be underestimated. I expect my feisty Kraken squad to overtake the Maine Timber when it’s all said and done. But assuming they do make the playoffs, the Timber getting out of the first round would be laughable.

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#45

1. The Detroit Falcons have been on a tear this season. As of the time of this writing, they have gone 31-4-2 for 64 points. They lead the league in goal differential with a +88 goal differential. It is obvious that in addition to them being the best team on paper, the change in program has benefitted them the most. That being said, I find it hard to imagine they will win 11 of their next 13 to tie the record for most wins in a season. Over the course of the season, all teams have begun to average out and having 7 of the next 13 games against the bottom 4 teams may sound like a recipe for breaking the record, only 1 of their losses has been against a team not in the bottom 4 of the current standings.

7. As of this writing, Newfoundland are mathematically unable to reach 30 wins this season. However, I still wanted to cover this a little bit. Early on in the season, Newfoundland was tearing through any team not named Detroit. It appeared that they were possibly the second best team in the league. However, if you inspected the goalies it became clear why. Their goalie tandem was playing out of their mind, putting up Game Ratings that topped the league, and even had the league leading one after the first week. It was really only a matter of time until things evened out, which they have. The tandem went from being the best in the league, when compared to expectations, to now playing right around where they are expected to. J believe we are now seeing how Newfoundland is expected to perform, with a slight boost due to such early success.

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