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Renomitsu · 05-10-2020, 11:17 PM

Pick 1.1 | Maine Timber Timber

| LD Mikkel Asmus Sondergard (@Rabidsponge21) | 309 TPE
5G/8A/14P | -16 | Defensive Stats - 54 Hits/23 TkA/72 SB/GR 60 (DGR 67) | TOI 22:14

The presumptive (and actual) first pick in the draft was none other than Mikkel Asmus Sondergard, who really could have been drafted to Maine weeks before the draft. As a matter of fact, most of us wouldn’t have been surprised if he just wasn’t listed on most teams’ draft boards as a result. As soon as he was signed by the Rabidsponge21 agency in the post-S52 offseason, he was a lock for the top half of the first round and obviously impressed time and time again.

Sondergard has continued his trek down the two-way defenseman archetype. And in addition to his formidable all-around defensive abilities, he’s added excellent ice awareness on both ends and a razor-sharp, rangy shot that puts him firmly in the upper echelon of players (forward or defenseman). In spite of his unanimity at first overall in the SMJHL draft, however, he continues to regard 1OA (first overall) as a dream of his in the SHL Draft, commenting “honestly, 1st overall would be a dream since I (Rabidsponge21) have been in sim leagues since 2015… the highest I have gone is 5th overall so far.” As of writing this article, is the only prospect above 300 TPE – and there’s a solid 13 TPE gap between him and number two, Carolina’s Dwight Knight.

Although Sondergard could probably have started Maine’s very first game, there was still some degree of debate as to whether the team would start Blake Feaux or Simon Moreau alongside top blue liner Valentín Kalashnikov. Halfway through the season, it was a no-brainer: Sondergard clearly emerged as a formidable partner to Kalashnikov and is firmly entrenched as the second-best defender on the roster. As the team with the first overall pick (not from a trade), Maine was likely expecting a down season, and that held true throughout as the Timber placed tied for last in the standings with the Vancouver Whalers. Converted sabermetricians and advanced statistics enthusiasts may not be impressed with Sondergard’s performance throughout the season – recording a -3.2 relative CF% and -4.8 relative FF%. But with a slightly below-average PDO (98.8) and the number of Maine defenders above M.A.S.’s level at the start of the season, it’s entirely possible that he bounces back in an extremely strong way in the minors next season.

Retrospective Value: A-. no other pick would have worked here, but it seemed like everyone knew that from the get-go. The Timber made a no-brainer decision and it paid off in spades, regardless of Sondergard’s stats.

Pick 1.2 | Anchorage Armada Armada

| RD Mathew Sawful (@SAwful) | 290 TPE
6G/15A/21P | +15 | Defensive Stats - 36 Hits/27TkA/40 SB/GR 56 (DGR 59) | TOI 19:43

From the outsider’s perspective, Mathew Sawful’s selection at second overall was a bit of a shock – as he was projected to go top three in less than 1/12th of the mock drafts. Like Sondergard, Sawful presented as a bona fide two-way defenseman and has continued along that path, though he’s arguably a bit more physically imposing and leans more into his offense than the first overall selection.

These aspects were well represented in his statistics this season, as he generally out-scored Sondergard but had fewer shots blocked and a lower defensive grade from most scouts. He also received a bit less ice time overall as he competed with Lando Norris, Ulrik Bergstrom, and even Alexei Petrikov for valuable shifts – managing just a minute or so in powerplay and short-handed ice time per game. But he’s nonetheless earned his spot as a #2 or #3 defenseman for the Armada, who fell just barely shy of a conference championship berth after losing a tight seven-game series against the Outlaws. Sawful found himself with a bit less powerplay time in that series, with just a few seconds overall between the seven games he played, without a similar decrease in short-handed ice time.

Although Sawful experienced more team success than Sondergard, his advanced statistics unfortunately fall in a relatively similar way. In general, Sawful’s PDO was a bit luckier than average (102.5), and his team scored significantly more goals/60 minutes than his opponents did while he was on the ice. From a Corsi/Fenwick perspective, however, he was a bit less inspiring – as is expected from most rookies, who operate from a significant TPE deficit relative to capped players for most of the season. With a relative CF% of -3.4 and relative FF% of -4.1%, some advanced statisticians may question Sawful’s play on the ice relative to his peers. But with these statistics constantly in flux, affected by line partners, vast differences in talent, and the aforementioned early deficit in terms of TPE compared to some of his Anchorage veterans, scouts can probably rest easy. The big ol’ number at the top of this entry (290 TPE) speaks volumes to Sawful’s long-term stability; and because he’s talented enough to reach top 4 in the class in spite of leaving pundits flabbergasted, I think this was a perfectly nice selection.

Retrospective Value: A-. second best defenseman and fourth overall in the class, fit a need at the time, and has become a top pair worthy prospect overnight. Causing mock drafters to shake in their boots is a nice bonus.

Pick 1.3 | Newfoundland Berserkers

| RD PBJ Souppan (@thevoicelesscreator) | 282 TPE
4G/11A/16P | -6 | Defensive Stats - 58 Hits/21TkA/59 SB/GR 55 (DGR 61) | TOI 20:03

Unsurprisingly, Souppan – whose agent might be better known from the NSFL – has panned out relatively well for the Berserkers. The third consecutive two-way defenseman taken in the SMJHL draft, he was presumed to be taken a bit later in the first/early second by most mocks. But provided his pedigree is probably a bit better known by the SHL at large, this pick has gradually become less surprising with time. And as has been the trend, he continues to push the trend of “slightly more defensive two-way” to “more offensive two-way,” as Souppan has pushed his shooting accuracy to the defenseman max with a shooting range that isn’t too far behind.

Perhaps on the less expected side is just how fantastic Newfoundland’s overall draft was – as they acquired three total defenders who can easily compete with Souppan when all is said and done. Tinke Jutila, an absolute mid-draft steal, and Jack Klompus both have >250 TPE, which we’ll cover when we get to said draft picks. Unfortunately for Souppan, his even-more-offensive approach didn’t pan out as well in the points department, as the Berserkers on the whole struggled a little more than the Armada (NEW 134 GF-133 GA vs. ANC 159 GF-133 GA). This could just as easily be a function of Newfoundland’s team scoring as it was Souppan’s personal performance. With regard to advanced statistics, Souppan still falls relatively negative but fares better than his peers for much of the same reasons: his CF% and FF% are both in the mid-to-low 40s, but the relative scores are just 1.3-1.5% below the team’s average. He’s slipped a tiny bit in an extremely tight race for top five among his class (282 TPE, T-#10), but that’s a marginal drop for a pick most outsiders had little to no information on.

Retrospective Value: B. The pair of defensemen rated higher than Souppan at the time of the draft were (1) a complete unknown to money leagues and (2) a player who declared an extremely strong preference for one team. I still think Souppan is an extremely high value pick, and the best realistic option for defenseman here.

Pick 1.4 | Kelowna Knights Knights

| RW Simon Takshak (@GeckoeyGecko) | 269 TPE
5G/2A/7P | -4 |14.71 SH% | 51 Hits/4 TkA/10 SB/Gr 51 (O 52/D 49) | TOI 10:47

Takshak was the first forward off the board but was also taken a few picks lower than anticipated (surprising, provided he’s still an early first round selection). Geck on the whole is a rock-solid earner in multiple sim leagues – and with two years of (real life) experience and $43M sitting in his bank account thanks to a lengthy Tokek Takshak career, the presumption would be that he’d be an obvious shoo-in for a top three selection. Takshak is a bit of a rabble-rouser like Tokek before him, not afraid to make bold comments like “Veal Parm >>> Chicken Parm” and “let gecko into ur LR. do it” that have both endeared and estranged him from opposing parties across the league.

As a selection on the already compelling Kelowna Knights, Takshak wasn’t expected to play many shifts per game as they ruled the Western Conference, taking first place be a couple of games over the Armada. Unfortunately for the young Indian winger, that meant he would spend more of his time sitting on the bench, averaging under eleven minutes’ worth of ice time per game. Even though he likely had plenty of energy throughout all three periods, he also scarcely saw the ice even during powerplays (for or against), averaging a mere 8 seconds of powerplay and shorthanded time each. It’s unsurprising, then, that Takshak’s volume and advanced statistics are generally underwhelming (rel CF% -5.8, rel FF% -8.2) as he had to play catch-up to just about every other pairing on the squad.

In spite of this gap, Takshak’s raw Corsi (49.8%) and Fenwick (48.1%) show that he’s just about at league average – his team is extremely impressive all throughout. He overall had some volume (51 hits) and efficiency (14.71 SH%) that suggest he’s got sparks of brilliance, but just hasn’t had the time to show it. Some skeptics are a bit sour on the winger’s upside because he hasn’t reached the heights anticipated by his draft position/hype.

Retrospective Value: C+. Yes, there are some better picks available at winger from a raw TPE perspective (e.g. Carolina’s Dwight Knight or fellow Knight Daniel LaForest), but Takshak is still readily top 20 and is top five among wingers in his class thus far. Plus, nothing beats consistency – and $48M banked means Takshak still has a lot to earn.

Pick 1.5 | Vancouver Whalers Whalers

| G Cal Covid/Name Redacted (@Skeleton Party) | 265 TPE
44 GP | 2,638 MP (~60m/g) | 13-28-3 | 1,492 SHA | 0.914 SV%| 3 SO | GR 72

The saga of the artist formerly named Cal Covid has been an interesting one, to say the least. Following a mid-season name change and a slow burn to last place, the Vancouver Whalers have had a couple of small curves thrown their way – but neither was unexpected. Featuring just three near-capped or capped players throughout the season, the Whalers had a tough road ahead of them, but re-equipped with a strong rookie class this season that included Slimey Snail, Ryosuke Sato, and the goalie named above (among others). Unfortunately, rookies obviously start below the cap, and there was an obvious and tangible difference between the Whalers and mid-table teams like Anaheim (and a much larger difference between them and, say, Detroit).

Redacted played relatively well, all things considered, starting 44 games and finishing just about all of them. An approximate one-third win rate (counting OTLs as a half-win) may not be inspiring for goalies at the professional level but put in context of the rest of the league, Redacted was startlingly efficient. He played by far the most minutes of any goalie in the league (70 more than second-place Kelowna goalie Kavanagh) and maintained a 0.914 save percentage – making him fourth among majority starters. Most scouts also graded him a touch higher than Anchorage Goalie Potvinov (GR 68 vs. Redacted’s 72) and extremely comparable to the likes of Cale Amundsen and Sergei Potvinov, who had more wins to their name possibly because of more experienced teams.

Obviously Redacted’s goals allowed aren’t inspiring (2.93), making him sixth among the top ten in GAA. But his volume of shots faced per 60 minutes (34) makes him second only to Frans Eller among top goalies.

Retrospective Value: C+. Keepers of similar value like Cale Amundsen and Scoochie Stratton were taken slightly later than Redacted, and some regarded him as a reach at #5 overall. His skill level (#20 for S54, #3 among class goalies) panned out relatively well for the Whalers and justify his draft position reasonably well. Some will still validly voice their concerns about the keeper, but stats don’t lie and Redacted had some nice ones.

Pick 1.6 | Colorado Raptors Raptors

| Aumy Jr. (@st4rface) | 282 TPE
5G/8A/13P | +0 | Defensive Stats - 55 Hits/11TkA/17 SB/GR 53 (DGR 54) | TOI 17:39

Here’s a bit more of an awkward story. A max earner in most respects, the story of Aumy Jr. took a tumble for the much worse when he was faced with a two-week suspension starting on April 30th for violating the league’s Code of Conduct. It came following a spat of punishments across the league for various offenses – illegal rosters, illegal practice claims, illegal this, illegal that – and was arguably among the heavier-hitting punishments as Junior was forced to miss multiple games of the playoffs. Before that, he was regarded as an obvious top selection at defenseman – and like Gecko, has something like $50 million in the bank waiting to be claimed. He’s maintained his spot as a top-ten talent in terms of raw TPE, but since he has to wait another week before claiming anything (and will miss out on various claims), his value takes a huge hit.

Statistically, Aumy has a pretty standard rookie set. He played minutes worth of a second or third pair defenseman, managed a perfectly even plus-minus, and has a solid number of hits. Some of his stats like takeaways (11) and shots blocked (17) are uninspiring for a defenseman, but that truly wasn’t the goal of his build to begin with. Perhaps most relevantly, Aumy is the first rookie player on this list with above-average advanced statistics. His luck (PDO) appears to be slight above average (101.5). His Corsi and Fenwick are slightly above average for his team (rel CF% 1.1, rel FF% 0.7) even if the gross numbers are a bit lower. But with regard to team success, Aumy Jr.’s Raptors snuck into the playoffs with a few more wins than the Whalers, only to face a Kelowna Knights team that defeated them in a four-game sweep.

If Aumy Jr. hadn’t been suspended a week and a half ago, he might be among the highest-value draftees: after all, he’s at 282 TPE in spite of being suspended the last week. But this drama surrounding him may sour his stock throughout the league; the question becomes how much of this is actually worth the headache?

Retrospective Value: D. Yes, Aumy Jr. has a lot of drama; absent that, he’d probably be a solid high B. He doesn’t sink into the D- or F grade because of his earning output and bank – if he was a first-generation player, I wouldn’t hesitate to downgrade him. But has he lost goodwill across the entire league?

Pick 1.7 | Kelowna Knights Knights

| C Daniel Laforest (@Snoopdogg) | 294 TPE
5G/6A/11P | -9 | Defensive Stats - 12 Hits/15 TkA/50 SB/GR 61 (DGR 63) | TOI 12:43

On first being drafted, Laforest was taken as an extremely offense-oriented center who was regarded as a possible defensive liability based on initial scouting. But as the season went on, Laforest transitioned quickly into an able two-way forward with physicals that would put most other forwards to shame. And his stats speak for themselves: with fifty shots blocked and a 63 defensive grade, most scouts have generally been impressed with the center’s performance.

These gross statistics are made all the more impressive because of Laforest’s ice time: at just 12:43 per game and special teams time slanted significantly more towards short-handed (1:19) ice than the powerplay (0:19), the team has entrusted important time to Laforest’s defensive development in a serious way. But perhaps more impressive than his play off the ice is his status as a first generation player, much like Covid and Sawful drafted above him. We do not cover any another sim leagues that Snoopdogg plays in – and as a result, he’s not a terribly well-known entity. But with 294 TPE, Laforest is the top-rated center by nearly 20 TPE and the third overall rated prospect in the field, topped only by Carolina’s Dwight Knight and the aforementioned Sondergard.

At the end of the day, Laforest’s presence on an extremely talented team (Kelowna) makes his relative Corsi% (-8.4%) and Fenwick% (-9.0%) uninspiring. But if you’re playing on a team filled to the brim with talented, experienced players – many of which will be taking the professional leap next season – your relative advanced stats can be poor but his absolute values (CF% 48.2, FF% 48.0) are just barely below league average. These relative metrics should to take a significant step up next season, especially as Laforest takes on a larger role and significantly more shifts over the course of the game. Like fellow Kelowna rookie Takshak, his volume numbers will expand as he moves up the lines. And provided his rapid progress, that’s due to happen sooner rather than later.

Retrospective Value: A+. Laforest moved up an extremely close top 5 ranking as a first generation player, has plenty of money banked away (nearly $30M!), and is on an organization that knows how to win and support their talent.

Pick 1.8 | Detroit Falcons Falcons

| RD Joseph Fantobens (@Fantobens) | 286 TPE
2G/8A/10P | +18 | Defensive Stats – 21 Hit/20TkA/24 SB/56 GR (54 DGR) | TOI 15:55

Few draft entities were as well-defined as defenseman Joseph Fantobens going into the S53 SMJHL Draft. He had gone through every team’s Interested Prospects thread and declared that he’d “prefer to start his career elsewhere,” save the Detroit Falcons’ IP. And provided his run with the Falcons in the latter third of Season 52, his preference for his old team wasn’t terribly surprising. Virtually every GM drafting in the first round knew Fantobens’s preference, and as a result it wasn’t surprising to see him drop to the eighth overall selection.

All things considered, Fantobens played a surprisingly significant role on an absolutely stacked, rolling Detroit Falcons team. He managed nearly sixteen minutes of ice time as the Falcons casually strolled through the Eastern Conference, accumulating 41 wins in fifty games played and a startling +115 goal differential. The defenseman’s overall scoring statistics weren’t perfect, though he did accumulate 20 takeaways and a net-positive offensive and defensive grade from observing scouts. What’s ridiculously impressive about Fantobens’s performance is not his gross stats, but the fact that he’s relatively close to his team’s average in spite of an absolutely absurd Corsi (67.1) and Fenwick (66.4). And he’s accomplished all of that with relatively below-average luck (98.1 PDO).

All things considered, the “retrospective value” of Fantobens as a selection could basically be “average” or slightly negative. Everyone knew he was going to be selected by Detroit, and he had an extremely high probability of retention/steady earning, even if his bank account is running a little light (~$425k). He’s clearly panned out (#7 in TPE), so I think he falls on the higher end of the value spectrum.

Retrospective Value: B. He couldn’t have realistically gone to any other team at any other selection, but he did earn very well over the course of the season.

Pick 1.9 | St. Louis Scarecrows

| RW William Lockwood (@Lockwood) | 238 TPE
4G/8A/12P | -5 | 8.16 SH% |32 Hits/7 TkA/37 SB/55 GR (56 OGR/53 DGR) | TOI 9:36

The St. Louis Scarecrows fell just short of upsetting the overwhelming favorite Detroit Falcons in the Eastern conference finals. And one might expect that St. Louis’s top draft pick would play an integral role in that sequence. When Lockwood was drafted, his emotional experience about the process touched the hearts of virtually everyone watching. And his rapid improvement around the time of the draft made Lockwood a fan favorite, especially provided his status as a relatively unknown entity (having created less than a week before the draft). At present, he has a solid $12.5 M banked, but recent scouting reports have suggested that Lockwood has failed to improve in the latter half of the season.

In raw stats, Lockwood has a pretty reasonable set of skills – a good number of hits, thirty-seven shot blocks, and a slightly above-base grade on under ten minutes of ice time. But in spite of his draft position as a first round selection, his overall time on the ice (even for a winger) is extremely low, and he had a strongly negative plus-minus in spite of being on a second place team. Strangely, he performed reasonably well from a Corsi/Fenwick perspective, falling solidly above his team average; the team managed 4 more wins than total losses, and although their goal differential was -1, one might expect a better plus-minus from the rookie provided his relatively-higher advanced statistics.

Ultimately, what paints the retrospective grade here is Lockwood’s startling drop in the TPE rankings moreso than his actual in-season stats. At 238 TPE, he’s tied for tenth-best winger and fortieth overall, which should raise some alarm bells for SHL management provided his first-round SMJHL selection. He may have a decent amount of money banked, but that doesn’t say much if he’s not active.

Retrospective Grade: D+. He was a good selection at the time, but fell in that small proportion of top prospects that has been extremely slow to pan out. In theory, he could end up an SHL Draft steal if he makes a triumphant return shortly after the draft.

[3,850 words by integrated counter; 3,628 by Microsoft Word]

Snoopdogg · 05-10-2020, 11:37 PM

As usual fantastic article and I enjoyed the read. Also aiming for #1 Towel

Snoopdogg · 05-10-2020, 11:38 PM

@Renomitsu your article is in the graded section, have it moved to the regular post area!

***bluesfan55*** · 05-11-2020, 12:23 PM

there's a method to @Acsolap's madness

ty to @High Stick King @EvilAllBran and @Ragnar for the sigs

***hhh81*** · 05-11-2020, 12:26 PM

In hindsight I should have said eff off to team need and taken the best player on the board with our pick @Snoopdogg. Had him ranked the 2nd best player in the J draft class at the time, and don't regret that projection now.

*Zoone16* · 05-11-2020, 12:42 PM

05-11-2020, 12:26 PMhhh81 Wrote: In hindsight I should have said eff off to team need and taken the best player on the board with our pick @Snoopdogg. Had him ranked the 2nd best player in the J draft class at the time, and don't regret that projection now.

Hindsight is 20/20 but unless there's a glaring hole you need to fill (like 1D returning and 5 open spots) it's always best to go BPA.

***hhh81*** · 05-11-2020, 12:53 PM

05-11-2020, 12:42 PMZoone16 Wrote:
05-11-2020, 12:26 PMhhh81 Wrote: In hindsight I should have said eff off to team need and taken the best player on the board with our pick @Snoopdogg. Had him ranked the 2nd best player in the J draft class at the time, and don't regret that projection now.

Hindsight is 20/20 but unless there's a glaring hole you need to fill (like 1D returning and 5 open spots) it's always best to go BPA.

We had 1.5 active dmen going into this season. Defense was a desperate need, and we didn't have a 2nd round pick either.

Snoopdogg · 05-11-2020, 04:44 PM

05-11-2020, 12:26 PMhhh81 Wrote: In hindsight I should have said eff off to team need and taken the best player on the board with our pick @Snoopdogg. Had him ranked the 2nd best player in the J draft class at the time, and don't regret that projection now.

Thanks I appreciate that, coming from a former GM is very soothing to hear. I also thought I would go 3rd tbh.

Zomp · 05-11-2020, 04:51 PM

wow

st4rface · 05-14-2020, 06:35 PM

great work! love to read draft media! keep it up Smile

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