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Mayuu · 05-26-2020, 07:04 AM

Does higher TPE totals make your team better?

It's no secret that this league revolves around TPE, I bet everyone at some point has looked at the alluring 2000 TPE mark and thought "I'm gonna get there". We've seen countless high TPE players do extremely well in STSH. We saw a glimpse of what a TPE beast can do in FHM with Ola Wagstrom.
So I set out to find out, does team success correlate to the amount of TPE you have?
Will raw TPE power you through the standings regardless of tactics and builds?

Before we get to the analysis I want to set the grounds for my analysis.
All teams have had the TPE of their players gathered from the FIRST update used in the pre-season. This means, the TPE totals and ranking will shift during the season.
The lines used is not the actual lines of the teams, it's auto filled from highest to lowest TPE. Mostly because I didn't want to research the correct lines, which will change from day to day anyway.

Since this season has yet to be played I will use comparisons from last season, I know that teams have added or lost players and a bunch of TPE, but maybe we can look back at this post when S54 and over and see how inaccurate it was.

Straight up TPE per Team.
1.BUF 23668
2.CGY 22617
3.NOLA 22446
4.NEW 22403
5.LAP 21309
6.SFP 20888
7.CHI 20778
8.MAN 20750
9.EDM 19831
10.HAM 19297
11.TEX 17903
12.WIN 17837
13.BAP 16397
14.MIN 15078
15.TOR 12975
16.TBB 9580

We find BUF and CGY at the top, while CGY having so much TPE being a surprise to me they may have just gone under my radar. MAN is in spot 8 which is lower then I thought. Finding HAM at the 10. spot is also a big surprise, seeing how dominant they were last season. Surprisingly 2nd to last team from last season TEX is only 1300 total TPE from HAM, with the right approach they might see a huge surge in success this season?
TBB being dead last surprises no one after the fire sale that went down. If I had to bet they are probably trying to get rid of Leitner as well to fetch even more picks to build for the future.

So how would the standings look compared to last season if TPE was the sole reason for success?
1.BUF +3
2.CGY +4
3.NOLA +4
4.NEW -3
5.LAP -2
6.SFP +2
7.CHI +3
8.MAN +1
9.EDM -4
10.HAM -8
11.TEX +4
12.WIN +0
13.BAP -2
14.MIN -1
15.TOR +1
16.TBB -2

We can already see here that TPE doesn't directly mean better standings, partly because of the how the conferences work and TPE doesn't take builds or tactics into consideration.
CGY, NOLA and TEX "under performed" the most with BUF and CHI being next in line. Their TPE levels should have propelled them higher up in the standings relative to their TPE.

The biggest over performer was HAM which saw them place 8 spots above their TPE ranking. We've seen rumblings about Cheathawks 2.0 but I don't think that's the case at all, they seem to have figured something out tactics and build wise and clearly has done their research. EDM also over performed placing 5th over all while their TPE only puts them at 9. They might also be onto something that the rest of the league has yet to find.
This opens up a question though, which teams will get the most out of their players now that we've had a free redistribution?
Diligent teams will have done their research and built their teams more coherent, maybe even molded their teams to perform more like HAM or EDM. Or maybe we will see another team innovate and find a counter.
Only time will tell here really.

Lets move on and look at the 1st 2nd and 3rd lines of the league and how they stack up.

1st line TPE per team.
1.NEW 5462
2.BUF 5386
3.NOLA 5199
4.CGY 5195
5.MAN 5166
6.WIN 4986
7.CHI 4903
8.EDM 4784
9.TEX 4686
10.LAP 4636
11.SFP 4511
12.HAM 4165
13.MIN 4081
14.BAP 3720
15.TOR 3359
16.TBB 2762

No surprise at the top 4 teams here, we know NEW has a monster first line with Wagstrom leading the charge. WIN seems to have a very top heavy team looking at their first line compared to their total TPE jumping 6 spots. The big surprise here is once again HAM which doesn't even break the top 10. Once again we see that TPE might just not be the end to all means in SHL.

The average TPE for a first line in the SHL lands at 4563, which 10 teams achieve. It also means that if you want 1st line minutes on a top team you need at least 1521 TPE to scratch the bare minimum. That's just below the peoples champion Cameron Carter II peak TPE before regression.

2nd line TPE per team.
1.BUF 4883
2.NOLA 4694
3.NEW 4134
4.LAP 4102
5.CGY 4055
6.CHI 4003
7.MAN 3930
8.SFP 3653
9.EDM 3504
10.HAM 3453
11.BAP 3138
12.WIN 3128
13.TEX 3047
14.MIN 2304
15,TOR 2245
16.TBB 1962

The top 3 teams remains the same showing their incredible depth. BUF and NOLA's 2nd line would slot in at position 8 and 10 among the top 1st lines. Being able to battle it out with most of the first line in the league, they should be able to do more damage then they did, BUF and NOLA have work to do here to ge the most out of their teams.
Here we also see where some of the lower TPE total teams shows weaknesses, although their 1st lines are up to par with some of the top teams, they lack the same depth.This is of course natural for a team that's in the stages of rebuilding or ramping up their core, so no slight to any of the teams here.

The average TPE for a 2nd line in the SHL lands at 3515, and exactly half of the league achieve this. WIN, TEX and EDM falls out of the above average and SFP jumps in. Meaning WIN, TEX and EDM's is more top heavy then the rest of the forward crops while SFP closer gap between the 1st line and 2nd line.
To crack the 2nd line in the top 8 teams you will need at least 1171 TPE. The competition for a top 6 slot on a winning team is tough out here in the SHL.

3rd line TPE per team.
1.CHI 3246
2.LAP 3224
3.BUF 3079
4.MAN 3043
5.SFP 3040
6.EDM 2890
7.CGY 2820
8.NEW 2733
9.NOLA 2663
10.HAM 2480
11.TEX 2347
12.BAP 2211
13.WIN 1991
14.MIN 1745
15.TOR 1657
16.TBB 878

NEW and NOLA drops out of the top 3 which is a little surprising, it might be a coincidence or they might have had some prospects leave or fall off. CHI fields the strongest 3rd line TPE wise, they made some huge trades with TBB this offseason and have a good prospect pool to boot. Their core is starting to shape up really nice and if this is any indicator, CHI will be a force to recon with sooner rather then later.

The average TPE for a 3rd line in the SHL lands at 2503, and 9 teams manages to field that. If you are in the SMJHL and are drafted by any of the top 9 teams you need at least 834 TPE or more for your debut in SHL (that's not to say these teams will trade you because you don't have enough TPE to improve the third line, a young players main worth will always be their potential. Not the raw TPE). The trend of staying down the max amount of years in the SMJHL to bolster as much TPE as possible seems to be here to stay. The league is at a state where it's so competitive that you need those seasons to catch up to the SHL teams these days.

That concludes the forward lines of the SHL, what's the biggest surprise in these list to you?

Next up we have the trusty defenders, we expect these guys to have our back but do the teams appreciate them and develop them enough?

Here's the 1st pair TPE per team.
1.BUF 3935
2.NEW 3644
3.SFP 3643
4.EDM 3307
5.CGY 3274
6.MAN 3138
7.CHI 3114
8.HAM 3086
9.BAP 2985
10.WIN 2937
11.NOLA 2855
12.LAP 2753
13.MIN 2654
14.TEX 2596
15,TOR 1569
16.TBB 1460

BUF has a nasty first pair of defenders. They can potentially be the first 2000 TPE blue line duo this season. Something that's previously never have been done in the history of SHL. Second thing that stands out is that NOLA drops quite far down the list compared to their forward crops. The top teams looks pretty much the same as for forwards other wise. TOR and TBB is fairly close in this list which is a first as well.

The average 1st pair TPE is 2934 and 10 teams manages to achieve that. To break into a top 8 teams 1st pair you will need around 1500 TPE on average which is about the same a forward need for 1st line.

2nd pair TPE per team.
1.SFP 2944
2.BUF 2922
3.NEW 2742
4.NOLA 2567
5.MAN 2498
6.LAP 2483
7.EDM 2386
8.CGY 2363
9.CHI 2280
10.HAM 2273
11.TEX 2267
12.WIN 2110
13.BAP 1903
14.MIN 1718
15.TOR 1210
16.TBB 883

SFP takes the first spot for the first time in this list and it's a little surprising considering how well respected their team is. It comes to no surprise though. They are known for their notoriously strong defensive game. NOLA bounces back into the top 4 showing that although they lack the super pair up front, they have a 2nd pair that can compete. HAM is consistently around place 10 and it's starting to beckon just how unbelievable much they are getting out of every single TPE spent. TBB keeps falling of the face of the earth.

The average 2nd pair TPE is 2222 and 11(!) teams manages to make that (thanks TBB for tanking the average). If you are a young defender and want top 4 minutes, your aim should be around 1111 TPE. Cool!

3rd pair TPE per team.
1.HAM 2156
2.LAP 2115
3.CGY 2055
4.NOLA 2053
5.NEW 2016
6.BUF 1912
7.SFP 1709
8.WIN 1661
9.TEX 1632
10.EDM 1379
11.MAN 1370
12.CHI 1348
13.BAP 1271
14.TOR 904
15.MIN 885
16.TBB 419

This apparently the secret sauce, for the first time in this list HAM has the top TPE. This must be the secret!?!
It is also the first time BUF isn't in the top 3 of the respective lines and pairs. We see teams like WIN and TEX jump some of the regular 8-10 placed team and MAN and CHI fall down a bit.

The average 3rd pair TPE is 1555 and 9 teams manages that. TBB's third pair gets beaten in TPE by most SMJHL teams which, I don't know if you should laugh or cry about that. If you want to crack the top 9 teams third pair be ready to bring around 777 TPE.

Does this analysis makes me any smarter? I don't think so, but looking at numbers is always fun.
If you are an aspiring star in the SMJHL you now have a number to beat. If you are stuck on the third line in a top team, you now know what it will take to make the next line.

Before I cap this article off, I want to show you which the real 16th ranking team is, and why it's not TBB.

Let me introduce to you the FA Team.
Fleming 522 F
Marmeladov 381G
Koenig 582 D
Rove 866 F
Clijsters 648 F
Niemi 745 745 F
Kennedy 1204 F
Freeman 623 F
Jiggly 846 F
Zvejnieks 582 F
Stevens 621 G
Zadina 873 F
Smeb 588 D
Magnicotta 464 D
Sarantez 374 D
Zhernov 484 D
Cahill 456 D

Total team TPE: 10859

This squad is ready for the taking and would most definitely put up a fight with TBB.

ready for grading
2042 words and a shit tonne of number collecting cause im an idiot who dont know how to build scrapers

RETIRED

***honkerrs*** · 05-26-2020, 07:50 AM

Nice work! You should maybe make a follow up article with some graphs to visualize how much better teams are than the average, difference between each teams' lines etc. but great research

Also just btw you don't need a scraper. Can use many spreadsheets that are floating around like this one in order to get players' TPEs https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...2039311080

*Katth* · 05-26-2020, 07:52 AM

Very interesting article and numbers. Ofcourse we only have 1 season to compare this too and some/most of the TPE numbers are already after regression has been done. Regression hits some teams harder than others.

But I like to believe that with every strategy feature we have in FHM it can actually make a difference and hope that these numbers reflect that. But we will know when we are 5-10 season further if this was a fluke season or not.

S50 Challenge Cup Finals Game 7
[Image: gNFVjT6.png]

Henrik · 05-26-2020, 07:57 AM

Interesting article, good stuff bud!

Mayuu · 05-26-2020, 08:32 AM

05-26-2020, 07:50 AMhonkerrs Wrote: Nice work! You should maybe make a follow up article with some graphs to visualize how much better teams are than the average, difference between each teams' lines etc. but great research

Also just btw you don't need a scraper. Can use many spreadsheets that are floating around like this one in order to get players' TPEs https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...2039311080

I will most definitely make a follow up article.
My intention wasn't to make an article out of this to begin with, I was simply curious to see where Buffalo stood TPE wise compared to other teams.
After doing a trivia in the Detroit locker room some people said I should make a media thing out of it and here I am. :p

05-26-2020, 07:52 AMKatth Wrote: Very interesting article and numbers. Ofcourse we only have 1 season to compare this too and some/most of the TPE numbers are already after regression has been done. Regression hits some teams harder than others.

But I like to believe that with every strategy feature we have in FHM it can actually make a difference and hope that these numbers reflect that. But we will know when we are 5-10 season further if this was a fluke season or not.

The sample size is one the biggest issue with this comparison, and as you said. Regression is fucking some teams harder then others while other teams just gets stronger and stronger.

One of the things I'd like to believe with FHM is that as we keep having teams that's not top of the pack winning this convincingly that strategy evolves.
I'd like to imagine what the coaches of HAM could do on a team like BUF or CGY.

05-26-2020, 07:57 AMThatguy91 Wrote: Interesting article, good stuff bud!

Thanks!

Fun fact, Detroits team TPE is 9255 and could very well match up against TBB in it's current state.

RETIRED

charlieconway · 05-26-2020, 08:48 PM

I have to admit I'm surprised to see Calgary so high, and Hamilton so low.

And I'm not surprised to see the teams with high 3rd pairing TPE all be successful, though Edmonton seems like an outlier in that regard.

Nice work putting this together. Ilike

PremierBromanov · 05-28-2020, 11:45 AM

Imagine having more than 10,000 TPE like a total scrub

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