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***boom*** · 05-28-2020, 01:23 PM

[3043 words, ready for grading]

Last season, I did a piece on the S52 SMJHL draft, and which players proved to be great value for where they were picked and which players were reaches or busts. I figured I’d do a follow up piece on that article to take another look at the class after two seasons, and I’ll be analyzing the S53 class as well using the same methodology. All TPE used in the article is as of the second-last update before the preseason, which took place the weekend of May 16-17. I wanted to get this out for draft media week, but real life did not cooperate.

The biggest issue with doing a second ranking is this: 30 of 83 people from the S52 class that made it to the end of the season last time have now been cut from their teams, creating an inaccuracy in sample size. There’s also the issue that the Player Analyzer (rightfully so) stops tracking players that aren’t on teams to reduce clutter, and it would take a ton of searching to find every dropped player’s most recent TPE, and the highest TPE of anyone who was cut was 220, so it’s not super consequential. Therefore, I just assumed that anyone who was cut from a team had no TPE growth since the last article and just plugged them into the spreadsheet as-is. The spreadsheet can be read here, and last season’s article can be read here.

The basic methodology of this article is: Last season, I took all 83 people who made it to the end of S52 on a team’s roster, and ranked them by TPE. I then subtracted their TPE rank from whichever pick they were taken at to find the difference between the two. A positive number means that a player taken with a certain pick earned more TPE than who the team would have taken had the players been drafted strictly of descending order of TPE, while a negative number means the player earned less TPE. Last season I also compared the relative TPEs themselves, but that was mostly as a tiebreaking measure because everyone in the rookie class was so close together and is not necessary this season. I included this difference figure for between last season’s ranks and this season, and between this season and the draft back in January. It doesn’t account for team needs or the fact that Ambacas Cuddles was an auto-pick, but it’s a rough way to quantify how well teams got value out of their picks. As another note, for the 16 undrafted free agents who lasted the season in S52, they were all assumed to be picked with a fictional 68th overall pick. In the case of players being tied for TPE, I went with “king of the hill” rules and picked whoever was higher-ranked the previous season.

For these team analyses, I’ll be listing players by team, as well as their draft pick and two numbers. The first number is how much their “draft pick difference” changed over the past season, and the second number is how much their pick difference has changed overall since the draft. I’ll also try and give each team a rough letter grade based on how they did with two seasons of knowledge about the draft class - feel free to debate me in the comments.

Anaheim Outlaws

13th: Ethan Price, 28th by TPE (+9, -15)
27th: Yompy Stearf, 62nd by TPE (-1, -35)
41st: Ziggy Tambo, 39th by TPE (-12, +2)
47th: Rikkard Hammarberg, 25th by TPE (+7, +22)
52nd: Andreas Stacks, 67th by TPE (0, -15)
61st: Separa Borro, 34th by TPE (+2, +27)
UDFA: Taylor Johansson, 23rd by TPE (+7, +45)
UDFA: Pooks Halloway, 52nd by TPE (-5, +16)

Anaheim had a pretty interesting go of it this draft, looking back with two seasons of hindsight. Ethan Price, who was under-earning for his draft slot after his rookie season, turned it around pretty solidly to get back into the top 30 earners of his draft class. Stearf, Stacks and Halloway are off the team now, so they don’t factor in too much, but Hammarberg, Borro and Johansson have been amazing value for where they were picked. After looking like a huge steal after his rookie season, Ziggy Tambo’s earning dropped and he’s now ranked right around where he was drafted. Overall, a good draft for the Outlaws, and this rookie class did help earn them a Four Star Cup so they can’t complain.

Final grade: B. They got some very strong players with depth picks in Hammarberg and Borro, as well as Johansson in free agency. Price is rebounding after a down first season, and Tambo is semi-active but around his draft grade in TPE. The one thing knocking them down the list for me is the Stearf miss.

Anchorage Armada

10th: Danny White, 47th by TPE (-16, -37)
19th: Chris de Siren, 31st by TPE (-5, -12)
29th: Braden Lowrie, 41st by TPE (+1, -12)
39th: Vladimir Khristorozhdeskvensk, 57th by TPE (-3, -18)
UDFA: Santtu Rasanen, 22nd by TPE (+11, +46)

Overall, a pretty weak rookie class for the Armada in the long-term. Danny White was looking like a solid earner, then fell off the face of the planet before the season began and hasn’t returned since. Khristorozhdeskvensk was also cut before the season in favour of a large rookie class. The draft picks themselves underperformed, but one name shines through: Santtu Rasanen, an undrafted free agent. Rasanen shot up the ranks and became a second-round SHL draft pick, and has continued to develop into a borderline top-20 asset in this draft class.

Final grade: C. White is a major miss with a first-round pick, but Chris de Siren is at least active for the Armada and is developing nicely, and Lowrie is holding steady. Rasanen developing into a potential superstar saved this Armada rookie class.

Carolina Kraken

6th: Jimmy Wagner, 4th by TPE (+3, +2)
15th: Ambacas Cuddles, 1st by TPE (0, +14) (autopick)
20th: Frans Eller, 3rd by TPE (+1, +17)
48th: Erik Johansson, 53rd by TPE (-4, -5) (acquired via trade immediately after the draft)
56th: Michael Lee, 35th by TPE (-1, +21)
58th: Scott Hamilton, 77th in TPE (0, -19)
64th: Wilhelm Schumacher, 73rd in TPE (0, -9)
UDFA: Ben van Dijk, 38th in TPE (+2, +30)
UDFA: Rinako Yukikami, 65th in TPE (-2, +3)
UDFA: Buster Cherry, 78th in TPE (0, -10)

Carolina nailed the first two rounds of this draft, as they have three of the top five earners in the class (okay, Cuddles was an autopick, but still). Wagner and Eller are top talents and the Kraken getting their starting goalie at 20th overall might have been one of the steals of the draft. Carolina didn’t have many mid-round picks, but Michael Lee in the sixth round and Ben van Dijk in free agency are very solid picks. They took some swings on prospects that didn’t pan out, but overall a very good draft.

Final grade: A. The top of the draft absolutely solidifies this as the Kraken landed three franchise cornerstones with their picks, and Lee and van Dijk were great value finds. The other prospects didn’t pan out, but they were all 5th round or later so it’s not a big deal.

Colorado Raptors

1st: Chris Cerullo, 44th in TPE (-20, -43)
3rd: Hiroshi Ohira, 37th in TPE (-12, -34)
14th: Bradley Barkov, 10th in TPE (+7, +4)
34th: Sven Svenson, 11th in TPE (+7, +23)
43rd: Glen Anders, 58th in TPE (-3, -15)
44th: Tomas Grygera, 74th in TPE (0, -30)
53rd: Jerry Huuveri, 21st in TPE (+7, +32)
66th: Ragnar Skallagrimsson, 63rd in TPE (+2, +3)
UDFA: Carlos Brown, 32nd in TPE (+25, +36)

Similar to Anaheim, the Raptors’ draft class was a pretty mixed bag. Colorado got some very nice pieces in Bradley Barkov, a fourth-round steal in Sven Svenson, a top-earning goalie in the sixth round in Jerry Huuveri, and a strong free agent in Carlos Brown signed right before the trade deadline. Unfortunately, the elephant in the room just can’t be ignored, and that’s Chris Cerullo and Hiroshi Ohira in the first round. Cerullo (perhaps understandably, given that his RL job is hockey-related and there’s no hockey) has been completely MIA since the SHL draft, while Ohira has been an okay earner but not enough to live up to his draft slot.

Final grade: B-. The value picks in this draft were great and the Raptors got two great forwards for cheap, a franchise defenseman, and a future starting goalie, but I just can’t look past their two first-round selections blowing up in their face.

Detroit Falcons

2nd: Magnus Liljestrom, 14th in TPE (-6, -12)
11th: Edward Williams, 9th in TPE (0, +2)
12th: Frederick Wanesly, 27th in TPE (-6, -15)
18th: Jack Kanoff, 5th in TPE (+1, +13) (acquired via trade immediately after the draft)
22nd: Burlok Sulfurgold, 16th in TPE (-3, 6)
24th: Reid Sutherland, 6th in TPE (+8, +18)
30th: Zoltan Topalo, 24th in TPE (-9, +6)
32nd: A Jobin, 30th in TPE (+8, +2)
42nd: Toki Wartooth, 43rd in TPE (-20, -1)
60th: Jordan Biffis, 79th in TPE (0, -19)
65th: Paddy Kane-Reilly II, 51st in TPE (-5, +14)
UDFA: James Brown, 64th in TPE (-2, +4)
UDFA: Ttam Renkrac, 72nd in TPE (0, -4)

Not much needs to be said here, as the Falcons rode this incredibly deep rookie core to a Four Star Cup last season. Even with Liljestrom and Wanesly slightly underperforming compared to their draft class, it’s only relative as the Falcons have eight players of their 14 members of this rookie class in the top 30 of the S53 class for TPE. Wartooth, even inactive, is still a solid depth piece with 270 TPE, and you have to go down to 60th overall with Jordan Biffis before you find an outright bust drafted by the Falcons.

Final grade: A+. Eight players in the top 30 for TPE. End of discussion.

Kelowna Knights

9th: Rocco Berni, 2nd in TPE (0, +7)
23rd: Jaska Seppala, 7th in TPE (-4, +16)
26th: Michael Preeb, 55th in TPE (-4, -29)
36th: Antti Antinen, 49th in TPE (-6, -13)
46th: Ethan Duncan, 8th in TPE (+4, +38)

Kelowna first got two major hits in Rocco Berni and Jaska Seppala, both top-ten recreates in this draft. Unfortunately, their next two picks were busts, with Michael Preeb falling inactive and Antti Antinen retiring after one season. They finished off their modest draft class with one of the biggest steals of the class: Ethan Duncan. The fifth-round centre shot up to become a top-ten TPE earner in the class and the 6th overall pick to the West Kendall (now Baltimore) Platoon.

Final grade: B+. They’re somewhere in between Anaheim and Carolina for me. The players the Knights did hit on in this draft have become top talents, but they haven’t been quite as good as Carolina’s picks, and while they did have mid-round busts similar to Anaheim, the players that did pan out are a fair bit better.

Maine Timber (fmr. Halifax Raiders)

5th: Valentin Kalashnikov, 20th in TPE (+2, -15)
28th: Lucas Hellquist, 36th in TPE (-1, -8)
38th: Luke Niemi, 76th in TPE (0, -38)
57th: Jim E. Russell, 82nd in TPE (0, -25)
63rd: Skyler Stevens, 83rd in TPE (0, -20)
67th: PeaKay Soupcan, 81st in TPE (0, -14)
UDFA: Alexander Roach, 40th in TPE (+16, +28)
UDFA: Marty Sertich, 54th in TPE (-4, +14)
UDFA: Blake Feaux, 56th in TPE (-3, +12)
UDFA: Jack von Arx, 61st in TPE (-1, +7)
UDFA: Rapid Eagle, 71st in TPE (0, -3)

Maine didn’t have a ton of picks in this draft, and they didn’t get particularly great value out of them. Kalashnikov is a franchise defenseman and the team captain, and Hellquist has been a solid depth find who should be a 425-capped player sometime later this season, but other than that this draft didn’t bear much fruit from the rest of their picks, with their next four picks turning into four of the bottom eight players in the class by TPE. The Timber tried to make up for it by casting a wide net into free agency. They got some decent two-year players like Marty Sertich and Blake Feaux, but the big prize was Alexander Roach. The undrafted centre has made huge leaps, sliding into the 40th-highest TPE slot.

Final grade: C. I’m going to put them in the Anchorage tier. They had some players turn out very nicely for the team, and a core player for free in Roach, but they just didn’t hit on their depth picks at all.

Newfoundland Berserkers

4th: Steve Harrington, 12th in TPE (-2, -8)
17th: Jukka Timonen, 13th in TPE (-2, +4)
33rd: Ryan Aaron, 66th in TPE (-2, -33)
37th: Patric Twist, 32nd in TPE (+3, -5)
49th: Vince Chalut, 60th in TPE (-1, -11)
51st: Andrei Kostitsyn, 29th in TPE (+10, +22)
55th: Ryuuji Minamino, 15th in TPE (+14, +40)
68th: Mattias Birdstrom, 45th in TPE (+21, +23) (was drafted by Anaheim, cut, and signed by Newfoundland)

This is a really solid draft for the Berserkers. Harrington and Timonen are both core contributors for Newfoundland, and they did well with the depth pieces as well, landing the enigmatic Andrei Kostitsyn and a huge steal in Ryuuji Minamino in the sixth round. They even managed to get some under-the-radar players too. Patric Twist, after looking inactive, came back to the site and even got himself a job as a SMJHL intern, and Mattias Birdstrom has quietly become a consistent, if slow, earner as well. Not bad for Mr. Irrelevant of the draft. The only miss of consequence was Ryan Aaron. The fourth-round goalie was supposed to become the successor to the inactive Steven Vassallo, but he didn’t work out and is now riding the pine elsewhere.

Final grade: A. Basically every pick except for Aaron and Chalut was a hit, and the late-round finds really broke out.

St. Louis Scarecrows

8th: Axel Meszaros, 17th in TPE (+2, -9)
16th: Erben Kasius, 26th in TPE (-21, -10)
25th: Trevor Johnson, 50th in TPE (-6, -25)
35th: Eric Hudson, 19th in TPE (+1, +16)
54th: Alex Reyer, 48th in TPE (-7, +5)
62nd: Jason Voorhees, 75th in TPE (0, -13)
UDFA: Kriss Darzins, 33rd in TPE (+15, +35)

St. Louis had a fairly decent draft. Meszaros and Kasius have both been very solid contributors on the back end for the Scarecrows, and while Kasius has dropped off from being one of the top earners in the class he is still solidly in the top 30. Trevor Johnson was a miss, but the Crows made up for it with Eric Hudson in the fourth round and Kriss Darzins was a steal as a UDFA.

Final grade: B. Similar to Anaheim, they got solid players early, some mid-round picks that didn’t pan out, and a huge steal in free agency.

Vancouver Whalers

7th: William Hartmann, 18th in TPE (-2, -11)
21st: Miro Slapskinnenen, 59th in TPE (-1, -38)
31st: Jacob Rizzo, 68th in TPE (0, -37)
40th: Joe Simpson, 70th in TPE (0, -30)
45th: Lucas Leclerc, 69th in TPE (0, -24)
50th: Lligma Broomstick, 46th in TPE (+6, +4)
59th: Tommy Outlaw, 80th in TPE (0, -21)

Thank goodness the S54 class had so many rookie hits for a rebuild, because this rookie class looked promising, and then practically every player apart from me went inactive. Rizzo attempted a brief comeback at the beginning of last season before disappearing again, and Broomstick managed to earn enough TPE to hang on as a solid third-line centre for a second season, but both have since been cut loose.

Final grade: D. Two actives after the first season and down to one active after two seasons, and the other five players all failed to crack 200 TPE.

Now that all ten teams have been ranked, it’s time to hand out some league-wide superlatives.

Sophomore Stars (biggest rise in TPE rank from Season 1 to Season 2)

Carlos Brown (+25)
Mattias Birdstrom (+21)
Alexander Roach (+16)
Kriss Darzins (+15)
Ryuuji Minamino (+14)

These five players were the biggest risers in the ranks over the course of their sophomore season. Brown, Roach and Darzins were undrafted, Minamino was a 55th overall pick, and Birdstrom was the last pick in the draft to be signed. The teams that picked them up will certainly be happy at the value received from these signings/picks.

Sophomore Fallers (biggest fall in TPE rank from Season 1 to Season 2)

Erben Kasius (-21)
Chris Cerullo (-20)
Toki Wartooth (-20)
Danny White (-16)
Hiroshi Ohira, Ziggy Tambo (-12)

Kasius and Wartooth both fell from being above their TPE rank to below it this season, with Wartooth going inactive. While these players are still useful contributors on their teams, they haven’t hit the potential that they could have had they stayed active.

Best Steal (biggest rise in TPE rank overall)

Santtu Rasanen (+46)
Taylor Johansson (+45)
Ryuuji Minamino (+40)
Ethan Duncan (+38)
Carlos Brown (+36)

Rasanen and Johansson were both free agents who have continued their huge rise to glory, while Minamino and Duncan were late draft picks who were slept on by GMs and became big stars for their teams. The interesting one is Carlos Brown. He was an extremely late free agent create who barely cracked 200 TPE at the time of the last article. He’s put in the work by doing pretty much every PT since then and is now well on the track to becoming 425-capped this season.

Biggest Bust (biggest fall in TPE rank overall)

Chris Cerullo (-43)
Miro Slapskinnenen (-38)
Luke Niemi (-38)
Danny White (-37)
Jacob Rizzo (-37)

Niemi finished in the top (bottom?) slot here last season, but was bumped out by a falling Cerullo. Yompy Stearf and Ryan Aaron have also been knocked off this list to be replaced by Cerullo and Danny White.

Hope you enjoyed the article! If you have an issue with my methodology, feel free to yell at me in the comments. I might do an S54 class version of this experiment, as there are fewer players to analyze, but I'll have to see.

Mutedfaith · 05-28-2020, 01:33 PM

Saw S52 draft class. Got excited. Left dissappointed.

*CementHands* · 05-28-2020, 01:48 PM

It wasn't immediately after the draft...

***boom*** · 05-28-2020, 01:49 PM

05-28-2020, 01:33 PMMutedfaith Wrote: Saw S52 draft class. Got excited. Left dissappointed.

Whoops, that might have been bad wording on my part. This does focus on the SMJHL draft preceding S52 though, so it’s technically accurate.

***boom*** · 05-28-2020, 01:56 PM

05-28-2020, 01:48 PMCementHands Wrote: It wasn't immediately after the draft...

Yeah, the grading for this draft definitely isn’t on the GMs at all. It’s difficult to predict who will stay active, but hindsight is interesting to look at the draft.

***hhh81*** · 05-28-2020, 02:00 PM

First round looks rough now--Cerullo was going to be my 1st pick no matter what. We couldn't predict what would happen, but I hope he's doing well.

The other player I considered at 3ov was @Aephino because I loved talking with Teddy. We felt really good about Finetales as a user--wish he'd stuck with it longer, but that's how it goes sometimes.

EDIT: Great work, btw

EricNCSU · 05-28-2020, 02:06 PM

If I'm being honest I didn't even expect myself to be as active as I am. Quarantine certainly helps with the free time...

Nhamlet · 05-28-2020, 02:17 PM

If only I was drafted even later.

***boom*** · 05-28-2020, 02:28 PM

05-28-2020, 02:17 PMNhamlet Wrote: If only I was drafted even later.

To be fair, Johansson and Rasanen were both UDFAs and I used a very arbitrary way to give them a baseline to rank from (I could have ranked them separately based on signing date, but I really don’t have time to dig through twenty separate signing threads), but you’re at least the highest value pick of the players who actually got drafted into the SMJHL

*Katth* · 05-28-2020, 06:32 PM

Nice article

S50 Challenge Cup Finals Game 7
[Image: gNFVjT6.png]

*Aephino* · 05-28-2020, 07:25 PM

05-28-2020, 02:00 PMhhh81 Wrote: First round looks rough now--Cerullo was going to be my 1st pick no matter what. We couldn't predict what would happen, but I hope he's doing well.

The other player I considered at 3ov was @Aephino because I loved talking with Teddy. We felt really good about Finetales as a user--wish he'd stuck with it longer, but that's how it goes sometimes.

EDIT: Great work, btw

I liked talking to you too @hhh81! I miss being in Gibbles lol

***_Blitz_*** · 05-28-2020, 07:34 PM

05-28-2020, 01:33 PMMutedfaith Wrote: Saw S52 draft class. Got excited. Left dissappointed.

Same, Cal.

***Chevy*** · 05-28-2020, 07:41 PM

05-28-2020, 01:33 PMMutedfaith Wrote: Saw S52 draft class. Got excited. Left dissappointed.

You aren't the only one. I'd love someone do this for S51's class

***boom*** · 05-28-2020, 08:04 PM

05-28-2020, 07:41 PMGeekusoid Wrote:
05-28-2020, 01:33 PMMutedfaith Wrote: Saw S52 draft class. Got excited. Left dissappointed.

You aren't the only one. I'd love someone do this for S51's class

It could theoretically be done, but because the data for past updates hasn’t been collected one would have to go through every single player’s update thread to find their TPE on a specific day and it would take far too long.

***Chevy*** · 05-28-2020, 09:50 PM

05-28-2020, 08:04 PMthecanadiancanuck Wrote:
05-28-2020, 07:41 PMGeekusoid Wrote: You aren't the only one. I'd love someone do this for S51's class
It could theoretically be done, but because the data for past updates hasn’t been collected one would have to go through every single player’s update thread to find their TPE on a specific day and it would take far too long.

Wanna go for the same timeframe? Last update before this preseason?

Hold my beer.

Edit: Google Sheet link sent to your inbox Wink

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