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*fishy* · 06-21-2020, 03:27 PM

1400 words, ready for grading
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After looking at the race for the President's Trophy battle between Buffalo and Hamilton, I decided to take another "deep" dive into this season's playoff race, this time looking at two teams I'm not involved with - Manhattan and New England. With Chicago having a 4 point lead on Manhattan with a game in hand, and a 9 point lead on New England with the same games played, it is looking increasingly likely that Chicago has the 3 seed on lock. Thus, it is looking like the same likelihood that the Atlantic division will only be sending one team to the playoffs this season - the division winner. This could be either Manhattan or New England, and by looking at their remaining schedules, I'll try and figure out who sneaks in to the playoffs.

4. Manhattan (25-13-4, 54 points, 8 games left)
5. New England (24-16-1, 49 points, 9 games left)

Game 42: Baltimore at New England
Baltimore heads to New England to try and play spoiler as the Wolfpack look to make up ground on the Rage. Earlier in the season, New England's coaches gave their starter the guaranteed wins against Tampa, forcing their backup to play against Baltimore. This ended up backfiring, as BAP surprised the Wolfpack and stole a regulation win. Those two points loom large here, as they could be 3 points back with a game in hand rather than 5 points back. With that being said, I can't see NEW looking past Baltimore like they did before, and get to within 3 points of Manhattan, each with 8 games left in the season.

Predicted Result: Win
Projected Record: 25-16-1, 51 points

***3 points seperation***

Game 43: Manhattan at Toronto
In a game that will likely be a blowout, Manhattan picks up an easy two points to keep New England at arm's length.

Predicted Result: Win
Projected Record: 26-13-4, 56 points

Game 43: New England at Chicago
Wolfpack head to Chicago to take on the vaunted Syndicate who haven't officially locked up a playoff spot, but could do so quite soon after this game. The Wolfpack will be in for a struggle here, and due to the home ice advantage, I think Chicago is able to win this in regulation.

Projected Result: Loss
Projected Record: 25-17-1, 51 points

***5 points seperation***

Game 44: Calgary at Manhattan
Calgary heads to the Big Apple as they, like Manhattan, are battling for their playoff lives, however, they may be playing with more desperation as Texas begins to pull away from the teams on the outside looking in. I think Calgary is due for some better puck luck here and Vilde plays well enough to surprise the Rage, keeping Calgary's playoff hopes alive.

Projected Result: Loss
Projected Record: 26-14-4, 56 points

Game 44: New England at Los Angeles
Coming off a tough loss at Chicago that kept the point gap between the Wolfpack and the Rage at 3 points, New England will be needing to bounce back against a team that has been remarkably defensive all season long. I think Wagstrom and the high powered Wolfpack offence flip the switch and outwork the Panthers, getting two points.

Projected Result: Win
Projected Record: 26-17-1, 53 points

***3 points seperation***

Game 45: Manhattan at Winnipeg
As the Wolfpack endure a major test in Los Angeles, the Rage pick up an easy two points as they visit the Jets in Winnipeg.

Projected Result: Win
Projected Record: 27-14-4, 58 points

Game 45: New England at Baltimore
Taking advantage of a schedule that should allow them to cut the gap of 3 points even closer, New England enjoys a light vacation in Baltimore, getting two free points.

Projected Result: Win
Projected Record: 27-17-1, 55 points

***3 points seperation***

Game 46: Manhattan at New Orleans
After picking up two easy points in Winnipeg, the Rage head south to take on a team in contention for the Western Conference's top seed, the New Orleans Specters. With both teams winning about 65-70% of their games, I would expect this to be a tightly contested matchup, although I have NOLA winning as the Rage party too hard in the Bayou.

Projected Result: Loss
Projected Record: 27-15-4, 58 points

Game 46: Chicago at New England
Another tough game for the Wolfpack as they take on another team ahead of them in the standings. Both teams have high TPE offences, so I expect the goalies necks to be sunburnt after this one. Like their previous matchup in Chicago, I think the home crowd plays a factor as New England narrows the gap even further.

Projected Result: Win
Projected Record: 28-17-1, 57 points

***1 point seperation***

Game 47: Manhattan at Edmonton
Manhattan endures an absolute brutal slate to end the season, having to travel to New Orleans, Edmonton, and Calgary, while also playing San Francisco and Buffalo. After getting whipped by the Spectres, I think Manhattan responds and surprises a team that might be playing their backup goalie as they look to avoid breaking the backup goalie rule. Two points for the Rage.

Projected Result: Win
Projected Record: 28-15-4, 62 points

Game 47: Toronto at New England
Might we see a shocker here? No? Okay. Two points to NEW.

Projected Result: Win
Projected Record: 29-17-1, 59 points

***1 point seperation***

Game 48: San Francisco at Manhattan
San Francisco has fallen off the pace, struggling to keep up with the surging Renegades and veteran-laden Dragon squad. With Larson hot of late, I think the Rage take advantage of the up and down goaltending the Pride receive and continue to keep the Wolfpack at bay.

Projected Result: Win
Projected Record: 29-15-4, 62 points

Game 48: New England at New Orleans
Like stated before, NOLA is heavily involved in the race for the 1 seed, meaning this should be a massive game with huge playoff implications for both teams. Like the Rage earlier, I think the Wolfpack stumble here with the Specters focusing in on the 1 seed.

Projected Result: Loss
Projected Record: 29-18-1, 59 points

***3 point seperation***

Game 49: Manhattan at Calgary
Massive implications for both teams here. Honestly a toss-up, but I'll go with the team with the aging, veteran presence. Calgary gets up for this game, keeping them alive.

Projected Result: Loss
Projected Record: 29-16-4, 62 points

Game 49: New England at Hamilton
So, know how I said Manhattan has a brutal slate? New England's final two games are against the second best team in the league, the Hamilton Steelhawks. New England is 0-1-1 against Hamilton this season, and with more to play for, I expect the Wolfpack to get a massive two points against Hamilton.

Projected Result: Win
Projected Record: 30-18-1, 61 points

***1 point seperation***

Game 50: Buffalo at Manhattan
The Rage take on the vaunted Buffalo powerhouse, a team that has been cruising along, winning over 80% of their games currently. A win here would guarantee the Rage a playoff spot with their game taking place before the Wolfpack play the Steelhawks. Although they've surprised the Stampede before, Buffalo wins here as they look to get hot for the playoffs. Manhattan's playoff hopes rest on Hamilton.

Projected Result: Loss
Projected Record: 29-17-4, 62 points

Game 50: Hamilton at New England
New England surprised the Steelhawks in Hamilton in their game before, allowing them to hold their playoff hopes in their own hands. However, Hamilton is a powerhouse for a reason, and have only lost back to back games twice all season. I don't think that happens for a third time, as Hamilton puts the final dagger into New England's playoff hopes.

Projected Result: Loss
Projected Record: 30-19-1, 61 points

***1 point seperation***

This playoff race will likely come down to how these teams can do against teams of similar skill levels, as well as the elite teams of the league, as they each have massive games against many other playoff opponents. NEW is 5 points back, although with an extra game in hand, against Baltimore, which they should use to claw back to within 3 points. Furthermore, this race could be decided by how many loser points each team could collect - with Manhattan having 3 more OTLs than NEW, those points could be real big.

In the end I think Manhattan holds up and finishes within the playoffs, yet I think this is still a 50/50 proposition.

Final Standings:
4. Manhattan: 29-17-4, 62 points
5. New England: 30-19-1, 61 points