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[SJHN] The Case for the S54 J MVP - Ryuuji Minamino
#1
(This post was last modified: 06-30-2020, 05:46 PM by sve7en.)

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This is part one of [spoilers] in a deep dive on the MVP race candidates as selected by myself and fellow SJHN reporters and analysts. I wanted to take a holistic look at the various players and storylines that have all converged at potential nominations and votes, much like my group at Hockey Talk Tonight did last season when discussing the MvdH / Williams and Laggerfield / Wagstrom races. This season especially, the competition for the title of Most Valuable Player is incredibly tight, and it only gets harder to decipher when you consider the various definitions of the award. The companion piece on offensive, defensive, and total point share used for some of these metrics will be released simultaneously with the final player review.

Let’s begin.





Ryuuji Minamino 
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Because it wouldn’t be the MVP discussion without the Jared Hanson winner
Stats (league rank in parentheses):
Scoring
  Goals . . . . . . . . . . 25  (2)  
  Assists . . . . . . . . . 28  (t-8)
  Points. . . . . . . . . . 53  (t-1)
  Shots . . . . . . . . .  173  (4)
  Shooting Pct  . . . . 0.1445  (18)
  Percent of team goals 0.2944  (5)

            ES         PP         SH
 Goals      12 (t-12)  12 (1)      1
 Assists    18 (t-13)  10 (t-6)    0
 Points     30 (t-9)   22 (1)      1

Non-scoring
  TOI . . . . 883 minutes, 17:39 per game (80)
  +/- . . . .  23  (10)
  PIM . . . .  22  (t-65 most)
  Hits  . . .  20  (t-134)


Advanced
  Game Rating . . . . . .    67 (t-25 overall, t-17th among skaters)
  Offensive Game Rating .    70 (t-2)
  Defensive Game Rating .    62 (t-59)
  PDO . . . . . . . . . . 103.2 (11)
  GF/60 . . . . . . . . .   3.8 (11)
  GA/60 . . . . . . . . .   1.6 (7)
  SF/60 . . . . . . . . .  37.9 (t-6)
  SA/60 . . . . . . . . .  23.4 (t-24)
  Corsi . . . . . . . . .  60.9 (t-10)
  Offensive Point Share    5.78 (1)
  Defensive Point Share    1.57 (t-44)
  Total Point Share . . .  7.35 (5th overall, 3rd among skaters)
  % Team Point Share  . . 0.095 (11th overall, 7th among skaters)



Roles:
Lines
2nd line RW (Twist | Forrester | Minamino)
1st Powerplay RW (Potts | Forrester | Minamino)
1st 4on4, 3on3 F (Legrande | Minamino) (Harrington | Minamino)

Linemates
Forrester - 6G, 38A, 44P, +24
Twist - 18G, 21A, 39P, +28
Potts - 15G, 20A, 35P, (5PPG, 9PPA, 14PPP)


The story

A bastion of offensive consistency on the Eastern Conference first seed, Minamino tore up the powerplay on a frequent basis, and was one of two players in a very deep league to make it over the 1.00 points per game mark this season. The gargantuan winger dubbed Godzilla by Newfoundland supporters and across the league exploded out of the gates to start the season on a 5 game point streak (3G, 4A) and was in the race for the points title for the entire season.

Minamino, while a second line player for the Berserkers, thrived on the top power play unit this season where he racked up a league leading 12 power play goals and 22 power play points. This massive level of production let him close out the season with the Jared Hanson trophy on tiebreakers and the lead of Offensive Point Share for a team that tied for the number of points in the league. While he wasn’t a defensive force this season, the large winger held his own on a stout possession line for Newfoundland and Minamino and his teammates can be found right at the top of the Shots per 60 metrics, which combined with solid goalkeeping and PDO numbers all season long gave them a resounding hold on the Goals per 60 tables as well.


The MVP moment

December 17th, 2020 - St. John's, Newfoundland
Anaheim Outlaws @ Newfoundland Berserkers

Down 1-0 going into the third period, Newfoundland was on the precipice of their season potentially beginning to spiral. They had lost 3 of their last 4 by a total of 15-5. A large part of that was an 8-3 loss at the hands of Carolina, who had won the last two games of the season series and was buying pieces as the trade deadline approached. The team desperately needed a spark to finish out these last 15 games and keep their home ice advantage.

4 minutes into the period, Minamino struck on one of his 7 shots that night and the game was even at 1. Just 27 seconds after that, James LeBlond went to the box on a tripping penalty and Minamino was back on the ice. LeBlond was out of the box just 9 seconds later as Ryuuji notched a second in the same minute and Nefoundland had all the momentum.
Anaheim was still fighting though, and they would tie the game at 2 near the midway point of the third. Plenty of scoring chances later, nothing had happened to the scoreboard and the teams found themselves deep into overtime when Minamino used his size to create enough space in the 3 on 3 situation to get the puck to Harrington through Lassi Suhonen and send the Outlaws home with just a single point, ensuring the stabilization of the Berserkers season.

Minamino took his first star lap to a standing ovation. 2 goals, 1 assist, 7 shots, 1 takeaway, no giveaways. It was a perfect display of offense, 100 rated OGR by FHM, right when it was needed most.


Why not Ryuuji?

Minamino has had all of the tools at his disposal, he doesn’t play on the top line where he would potentially face harder match-ups, his numbers look a little more mundane when you account for the fact that so much of it came with the man advantage, and he played nearly the entire season with possession and distribution focused Matthew Forrester.

Of the top point scorers this season (Minamino, Wagner, Seppala, Berni, and Scott), only Scott had a similarly low Defensive Game Rating, his shots against numbers are average, and his Corsi is lowest of the five. Combined with his lower defensive point share, second line minutes, and high PDO, it starts to look more like his top tier defensive numbers where he’s top 10 in Goals Against per 60, Corsi, and Plus Minus, are at least partially a product of the line around him, not having to play on the penalty kill, and Cale Admunsen in net.


Why you’re picking Ryuuji Minamino for MVP

The Jared Hanson winner and leader in offensive point share plays on the second highest scoring team, and you think the MVP is both a refined scoring title and an award for providing offensive value because those are the most reliable numbers that can be measured.

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#2

Hey I know this guy, he’s ok

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#3

Ryuuji should hands down be the MVP, he carried NL offensively and was a big reason we had the best offense in the league

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Berserkers Dragons  Dragons Berserkers
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#4

As my player seemed to forget how to play hockey in the last 20 or so games of the season, I support Ryuuji 4 MVP.

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