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***sve7en*** · 07-04-2020, 05:41 PM

[1602 words]

This is part one of [spoilers] in a deep dive on the MVP race candidates as selected by myself and fellow SJHN reporters and analysts. I wanted to take a holistic look at the various players and storylines that have all converged at potential nominations and votes, much like my group at Hockey Talk Tonight did last season when discussing the MvdH / Williams and Laggerfield / Wagstrom races. This season especially, the competition for the title of Most Valuable Player is incredibly tight, and it only gets harder to decipher when you consider the various definitions of the award. The companion piece on offensive, defensive, and total point share used for some of these metrics will be released simultaneously with the final player review.

You can find the other entries in the series below:

The Case for the S54 J MVP - Ryuuji Minamino
The Case for the S54 J MVP - Cillian Kavanagh

Let’s begin.

Jimmy Wagner

@sve7en

The other points leader

Stats (league rank in parentheses):
Scoring
Goals . . . . . . . . . . 24 (3)
Assists . . . . . . . . . 29 (t-4)
Points. . . . . . . . . . 53 (t-1)
Shots . . . . . . . . . 171 (5)
Shooting Pct  . . . . 0.1404 (t-21)
Percent of team goals 0.2896 (7)

ES PP SH
Goals   13 (t-8) 11 (2) 0
Assists 18 (t-7)   9 (t-11) 0
Points 33 (t-3) 20 (2) 0

Non-scoring
TOI . . . . 943 minutes, 18:52 per game (54th overall, 12th among forwards)
+/- . . . .  20 (t-12)
PIM . . . . 12 (t-116 most)
Hits . . . 38 (t-89)

Advanced
Game Rating . . . . . .   67 (t-25 overall, t-17th among skaters)
Offensive Game Rating . 71 (1)
Defensive Game Rating .   65 (t-40)
PDO . . . . . . . . . . 99.6 (t-103)
GF/60 . . . . . . . . . 4.1 (t-3)
GA/60 . . . . . . . . . 2.5 (90)
SF/60 . . . . . . . . .  39.6 (1)
SA/60 . . . . . . . . .  23.1 (t-17)
Corsi . . . . . . . . .  61.6 (7)
Offensive Point Share 5.53 (1)
Defensive Point Share 1.45 (t-44)
Total Point Share . . . 6.98 (8th overall, 5th among skaters)
% Team Point Share . . 0.095 (9th overall, 5th among skaters)

Roles:
Lines
1st line RW ([Viticek/Knight/Dakari] | [Lee/Grimstad] | Wagner)
1st Powerplay RW (Viticek | Lee | Wagner)
1st 4on4, 3on3 F (Lee | Wagner) (Knight | Wagner)

Linemates
Vitek Vitecek - 15G, 29A, 44P, (5PPG, 10PPA, 15PPP)
Dwight Knight - 19G, 20A, 39P
Kwame Dakari - 18G, 13A, 31P
Keith Lee - 13G, 28A, 41P, (5PPG, 7PPA, 12PPP)
Linus Grimstad - 13G, 19A, 32P

The story

The only player to spend all 50 games on the top line for the second seed Carolina Kraken, Jimmy Wagner carved a unique niche for himself these last two seasons as a SMJHL captain. Commonly recognized as one of the best skaters in the league, and with a target on his back as a must contain first line caliber player, Wagner took his game to the next level this season as he became the focal point of the top offense in the league. While tying Ryuuji Minamino for the league points league, he also led the league in shots for per 60, led the Kraken in goals and assists, and led the league’s top power play in power play points. All of this in large part to his ability to generate space at a level that the J commonly doesn’t see.

Wagner led a stacked Kraken forward core in time on ice and even strength time on ice, as well as being top 10 forward in the SMJHL for even strength ice time. As he racked up 20 minutes 11 times, five of those in the regular season, it’s not hard to see how much the Kraken asked of their leader. Despite his work on the offensive end, Jimmy wasn’t lacking on the defensive side, his ability to close down passing lanes and puckhandlers left him above average in most defensive stats, and a top 20 shots against per 60.

While his first 10 games were rough (3G, 3A, +3) as Carolina as a whole limped out to a 5-4-1 start, the line blender started clicking and Wagner exploded for 17 more points as Carolina went 9-6-0 to hit the midway point of the season at 14-10-1. He only got better as the season went on though, racking up 30 points over the second half of the season, including a 5 game multi-point streak, as he rallied the Kraken to an 18-3-4 second half, almost passing Newfoundland for the top seed in the last week of play.

The MVP moment

December 30th, 2020 - Kelowna, British Columbia
Carolina Kraken @ Kelowna Knights

Jimmy Wagner has a reputation for both being an explosive player and someone that comes though in the clutch, and he began to solidify his case for both of those on a cold night in Kelowna right before the new year. The soon to be Laurifer winners were the same one that shut out Newfoundland earlier in the week, and sported the league’s best defense, but if Carolina was to compete with them and Newfoundland for regular season accolades and the top seed in the East it was as close to a must win as possible.

Carolina found themselves down early in the first, which is never an optimal spot to find yourself in when Cilian Kavanagh is the opposing netminder, but as linemate Kwame Dakari scored to tie the game, Wags had something planned for the ensuing faceoff. Keith Lee boxed out well on the faceoff and Wagner cut in through the circle, receiving Lee’s through pass between the Kelwona defenders and beating the previously mentioned Kavanagh with an agile move.

Two periods later though, with just under 5 minutes to go, Carolina was on the brink of defeat. Down 3-2 after Kelowna responded in the first and took the lead in the third, stress lined the faces dressed in white, but there was still hope. Carolina’s top unit had possession in the Kelowna zone and were working possession. Wagner scooped up his own rebound and started cycling the puck around the outside where Sven Yxskaft ripped a one time shot that the Knight’s ace got a stick to. The speedy Austrian was quick to accelerate though, finding the rebound and silencing the rowdy Kelowna crowd for his second on the night, sending the game into overtime and a shootout, where he converted his shootout goal to push things to sudden death. 13 rounds later, rookie Connor Hutton slotted home the winner, and a victorious but exhausted Kraken team began their overnight flight home well after midnight.

Why not Wagner?

Much like Minamino, Wagner is surrounded by talent. Detractors will point to the depth of scoring in the Kraken roster and that the line blending just demonstrates that Wagner’s scoring might have come from anyone getting first line priority. Additionally, Wagner has an immense time on ice, making his volume stats seem that much less impressive compared to the second line times of Minamino.

Jimmy is also the only top point scorer to be under 100 PDO and have a goals allowed over 2.0, and it can be argued that the top players and players with the most value generate luck and create the differences between goalies in the league. Some will wonder how much of Eller’s down year was the result of Carolina’s furiously uptempo game that was highlighted by Wagner.

Why you’re picking Jimmy Wagner for MVP

You think that despite Wagner not being the most dominant offensive player in raw stats, you consider his shots for, shots against, and success with a number of different linemates to show that he was defensively above average and was a true build around piece and conduit. You think Wagner makes the Kraken offense what it is and that with how Carolina relied on the league’s best offense to win games, their success wouldn’t exist without him.

***luke*** · 07-04-2020, 05:46 PM

I hear he is pretty good at podcasting too

***sve7en*** · 07-04-2020, 05:48 PM

Obligatory

[Image: 46c2ql.png]

@LordBirdman

***hockeyiscool*** · 07-04-2020, 05:53 PM

10/10 looking forward to the Stan Lee (artist formerly known as velveteen dream) one

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