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juke · 07-07-2020, 09:28 PM

Ready for grading, please split between @Dextaria and myself!

(I copied this intro from the SHL version, feel free not to include it in grading)

The Four Star Cup is here, which means it’s once again time to run the numbers - often times controversial or outright questionable - and report the percent chance that each team has of winning any given game, and subsequently their series. Just like my media series about this last playoffs, the graphs and series chance for each matchup will be updated after every sim or two, and some context and stats will be added for individual games, as well as the series as a whole. This year, @"Dexteria" will be joining me in covering some of the specific matchups for the finals, which features ANA vs. CAR. As always, before just going straight into the numbers, I’d like to clarify some of the background and theory behind how this breakdown works. There’s a few changes to the methods from last season, but feel free to skip right to the graphs if you don’t care.

Numbers only: The most important thing for me to clarify, is that these aren’t my ‘predictions’ of who’s going to win each series. It’s just reporting the probabilities of team wins, based on that team’s scoring trends. There’s no context behind the probabilities, it’s literally just statistics. Other members of the SJHN have/will put out their own spins of the specific breakdown of each matchup, and those pieces are where you’ll find more context and predictions about each series.

Tactics: This is the biggest flaw in all these numbers. They’re just using season averages, where a lot of teams likely found the best tactics for their team in a broad, general sense, and went with them to try and win as many games as possible. However, come playoffs with 4-7 games against the same opponent, teams will be trying to counter the other, or maybe have new line combinations or tactic settings to give them an advantage. This can’t really be reported in my numbers (other than head to head factor which I talk about in a second), so certain teams are going to match up better or worse then the numbers suggest, based on how well they can adjust their strategies.

Estimated score: This is the entire foundation of all the probabilities in this series. For each matchup, each team is given an estimated number of goals they’ll score in any given game, which is then used for all the rest of the math in these posts. This number is a function of each team’s scoring trends, both goals for and against, during the 50 game season, relative to league average. The number generated won’t be a real score, it’ll be something impossible to actually score, like 3.41 as a random example. But we use that value to calculate the probability of each team scoring a real number of goals, ranging from 0 to 8 in a single game.

Game chances: Using this estimated score and the probabilities that each team scores a certain amount of goals, we can estimate the percent chance that each team will win any given game.

Series chances: Once we have the percent chance that each team will win in either location, we can extrapolate to calculate the probability of each team winning at least 4 out of the 7 games for the series win.

No momentum: I know that momentum is a thing in FHM, but these numbers won't take that into account directly. However, I’ve changed how the expected goals are calculated this season, and the matchup values will be weighted more heavily towards the team’s head-to-head record on the season then I weighted them last playoffs. This means that if a team wins 2 games in a row in the series, although the actual momentum modifier from FHM won’t be considered, that team’s odds will still increase more significantly, because they’ll also have performed better in the head-to-head modifier on my end.

Home vs. Away: Also a new change from last playoffs, I decided to scrap the home vs. away distinction in the code. Although some teams really did perform much differently based on location, I decided 25 games for each was too small of a sample size, and things like a few bad games, or playing backup goalies more in one location could really skew the numbers, and as a result, the entire probabilities. Team scoring stats are based on their 50 game season stats, as well as updated for playoff stats as each game is played.

Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does.

Matchup breakdown: This is the first of the graphs that will be updated after each game. It compares the two teams in each matchup, and how well each of them are performing relative to each other in a few key stats. Before game 1, the matchup breakdown graphs will just be using season stats, but after game 1, it will be representative of the current playoff matchup. The numbers plotted are per game, and the exact value for each team is also on the graph.

Series tracker: This final graph represents each team’s series chances after each game. Before game 1, it will be a very boring graph with just two points, but after each game it will track how the series chances change with each team’s win or loss.

Ok lets get on to the probabilities.

Pre Series

Our four star matchup features the cup champs from 2 seasons ago ANA, trying to regain their title once more vs. one of, if not the hottest post-trade deadlines teams in CAR. The odds for this pre-series analysis are among the closest I’ve ever seen before game 1 in this media series. CAR has a 51% chance of winning any game, with an expected score of 3.19 to 3.11. This leads to just a 52.2% chance of winning the series. The story of success behind these two teams come from different trends. ANA has made a strong case for the best team in the playoffs this far, and is hoping that their red-hot postseason success will continue in this series. CAR on the other hand, finished the back half of the season as one of the best teams in the J, and have a regular season stat advantage in almost every category compared to ANA. Both teams have had a similar path in the playoffs (beat a 53 point team in round 1, and beat a 71 point team in round 2), so for that reason I blended regular season and playoff scoring into the probabilities calculation, and as a result we have almost identical odds between the two teams. Let’s just hope it’s as close as the numbers suggest.

General Series Stats

Game 1

4 - 5

This series started off with a bang, with 9 goals scored in game 1. The two teams traded goals back and forth, until CAR eventually scored the deciding goal early in the 3rd, to come away with a 5-4 win in game 1. Just like the final score of the game, the underlying stats in this one were very closely matched between the two teams, with neither team having significant advantages in shots, corsi, save percentage, and they even had identical average GRs. The Kraken chances jump to around 68% after the game 1 win, but if this opener is any indication for how the series will go in the future games, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the two teams trade wins back and forth.

Game 2

1 - 4

Even though the shots were almost tied, the goals told a different story. After a 4-1 win by CAR, for the first time this playoffs ANA has lost more than 1 game in a series. The Outlaws had 38 shots to the Kraken’s 39, and they beat the Kraken in shots blocked. However, CAR won in every other stat such as corsi, hits, and takeaways. The most important stat was of course goals. It seems like the Kraken are able to find ways to solve Chamberlain unlike the earlier teams that the Outlaws faced in these playoffs. With their 2-0 lead, CAR extends their percent chance of winning to 87% while ANA sits at 13%. After letting in an average of 4.5 goals per game this series, the Outlaws have to find a way to shut down the Kraken’s offense if they want to avoid falling further.

Game 3

3 - 1

In an arguably ‘must-win’ game 3, to avoid going down 0 games to 3, ANA responded positively with a 3-1 win over the Kraken. Goaltending was the difference in this one, as Chamberlain saved 31/32 for a .97 save percentage, while the Outlaws were able to score 3 goals on just 22 shots. CAR still has a scoring, corsi, hit, and takeaway advantage in this series, while ANA is even with the Kraken in save percentage, and GR, and have a strong lead in SB. Despite CAR being in charge of game 3, ANA was able to come one step closer in tying up the series, as CAR’d lead shrunk to 2 games to 1, and their odds of a Cup shrunk to 73.1% from 87%.

Game 4

4 - 3

It looks like this series has come back to where it started, but it is now a best of 3. After being down 0-2, ANA has managed to win games 3 and 4 to tie the series back up 2-2. This game was even more of a nailbiter as an OT goal separated the Outlaws from being down 1-3, and tying the series at 2-2. They seemed to have stolen this game as only their save percentage, PDO, shots blocked, and goals beat CAR. The Kraken dominated in all other facets such as corsi, hits, and takeaways, but that wasn’t enough as they put up a 0.85 save percentage. With the series now tied, the percent chance of winning for both teams have come back to where they started, 50/50 basically. CAR has the slight edge at 51.4%, like in the beginning of this series, but it really is anyone’s game. This makes game 5 that much more important.

Game 5

1 - 3

No game graph for this one, but in a pivotal game 5, CAR is the one who ends up with the victory, and are now just 1 win away from bringing home the cup. As has been the story for this round, CAR has the minor shot advantage of ANA in game 5, and they also had a 31-12 hit advantage in this one too. They still hold minor advantages in most stats in this matchup, and they have an 80% chance to get the one more win they need to call themselves the champions.

Game 6

0 - 5

This was a beautiful game by CAR from start to finish. The team completely dominated in all stats from their 53 shots on goal, 1.00 save percentage, and their corsi of 78. I don’t think the Kraken could have played any better this game to close the series. Great job to the Anaheim Outlaws for making it so far in the playoffs and pushing the Kraken to a game 6. On behalf of Smalinowski and I, thank you all for sticking around and a big congratulations to the Carolina Kraken on winning the Four Star Cup!

Game 7