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*fishy* · 07-26-2020, 08:07 PM

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Hi everyone,
Quick little piece here explaining my thoughts on Casino this year. Fully expect to get a fair number of these wrong, but oh well, Casino is fun and I'm glad to see the number of people that will be gambling on teams this season. Kudos to @Grum for the work he's done.
Disclaimer: No offence intended in any of the quick discussions about these teams.

Baltimore Platoon (+/- 14.5)
Fish: Over
The only guaranteed wins I can see for BAP this year are against TBB, and maybe the two games against MIN during inter-conference matchups. I fully expect BAP to lose every game by a wide margin against the elites of the world (6 vs MAN, 12 vs BUF/CHI/HAM, 4 vs EDM/NOLA). Improving teams like TEX/WPG and others should easily take care of business, but I could see Del Vecchio stealing a couple of games, and BAP surprising a couple of others. Remember, this is the team that won two games against the Wolfpack last season, keeping them out of the playoffs. Anything is possible.

Jeffie: Under
Oh how the mighty have fallen. The self-proclaimed contenders from last season have completely fallen apart this offseason after selling some of their key players in the past like Geoff Moore, Yoshimitsu McCloud and Ethan Ross. The roster is fairly weak and it doesn’t help that they had 15 wins last season and got weaker as a team whereas teams that finished with worse records (Minnesota, Toronto) are playing catch up and will now be able to secure more wins against this roster.

Buffalo Stampede (+/- 39.5)
Fish: Over
I fully expect this one to come down to the wire, as 40+ wins is an absurd mark to achieve in back to back seasons. However, S56 should be this team’s peak, as about half of their forwards are S46s that are approaching 2000 TPE. Additionally, stud young goalie Elizabeth Doyle will have another season under her belt, and a campaign like her last would go a long way to breaking the 40 win barrier. Biases aside, this team’s third line may be what holds them back, as two sub-900 TPE players stand out for a team with not many other holes. I think the Stampede will just slightly make it over, as their loaded forward group may be too tough for others to handle.

Jeffie: Under
This might be one of the harder gambles you could make in this season’s casino. The Stampede are coming off a season in which they had the most points in the entire league with 84 (41-7-2 record overall) and as a result have shown that they can hit that mark and with a quality roster, they should be able to reach the 40 win plateau. However, with teams like MAN, CHI and HAM adding even more quality players to their roster, they could easily give BUF some trouble with attaining 40 wins again.

Calgary Dragons (+/- 30.5)
Fish: Over
I think Calgary massively underachieved last season, and with some of their direct competitors experiencing lots of regression and losses (SFP), or trading away their best players (LAP), I think Calgary rebounds this season. Although they are coming off a season where they only had 26 wins, I think much of that can be attributed to one reason: goaltending. Vilde sported an awful 0.890 save percenage, and a 3.32 GAA. If Vliddy is able to shake off the doubt he had last season and rebound to numbers more in line with his career stats, I can see Calgary easily pushing for a 30-33 win season with their solid core of S45-47 players.

Chicago Syndicate (+/- 33.5)
Fish: Over
Chicago is coming off one hell of a season, where their young core finally took that massive leap we all expected, as they cruised to a third seed in the conference, but were given the 4th seed in the playoffs thanks to the SHLs archaic division rules. Picking up Ethan Ross over the season makes this team even stronger, and as their massive S47 core begins to approach their peak, Chicago should easily follow up their 35 win season with another 35+ win season. I fully expect this team to compete with BUF for the division title.

Edmonton Blizzard (+/- 34.5)
Fish: Over
A team coming off a decent regular season, where they put up a record of 29-18-3 but flamed out early in the playoffs, picked up some major roster additions when they signed rising Pride superstar Bo Kane from their conference rivals, as well as traded for Theo Morgan and Jon Toner from an LAP team that nearly made it all the way to the Challenge Cup finals. These three players, adding nearly an additional 4500 TPE to their roster, should make the rest of their team fill roles they’re more comfortable in. Son of GM, Connor Tanner, who rumours say is switching to Defence, helps solidify a D corp that should have everyone over 1200 TPE. I expect another strong campaign out of the Blizzard this season.

Hamilton Steelhawks (+/- 36.5)
Fish: Under
Hamilton is coming off a Challenge Cup appearance after paying off the refs in game 7 of their series against Buffalo. Seriously, how do you draw a 5 minute major for instigating in double OT while already being on the man advantage? I’ll never understand. Anyways, HAM also made some major additions this season, acquiring a couple players on pace for 2000 TPE in Zheng and Clapper, yet experienced massive turnover at the goalie position, going from 1400 TPE Kryyst to 700 TPE Jobin. I think the additions of Clapper and Zheng will overcome the loss of Kryyst, and have HAM pegged for another 38 or so win season.

Los Angeles Panthers (+/- 26.5)
Fish: Under
LAP was a team that sold over the offseason in order to ensure they were under cap, selling directly to a rival Western Conference competitor in the Edmonton Blizzard. The return helps allow LAP a ‘reset’ season, although with more players rumoured to be out the door, LAP could try and recoup some trade value in order to set themselves up even better over the next coming seasons. I could see LAP continue to sell at the deadline, making me feel even more comfortable in the under.

Manhattan Rage (+/- 34.5)
Fish: Under
I think this is one that could come down to the wire, although with the rest of the Eastern Conference loading up, and with teams like TOR improving, 35+ wins is a high bar for a team likely headed for another fourth place finish in the conference. As I expect BUF/CHI/HAM to all finish ahead of MAN, I’m going to lean towards the under for the Rage.

Minnesota Chiefs (+/- 11.5)
Fish: Under
Minnesota should be scraping the bottom of the barrel in the Western Conference, due to minimal high-end talent, and a real lack of depth even compared to team’s in the same solar system like WPG. 12 wins for this team is certainly doable, I just tend to lean towards the under as we could continue to see teams like TEX, CGY, and the previously mentioned WPG load up for a playoff run.

New England Wolfpack (+/- 18.5)
Fish: Over
NEW traded away the majority of its heavily underachieving core, yet still held on to Eko Van Otter, and Slap McShotty. Additionally, they added a cheap 1800 TPE defenceman for next to nothing, basically replacing the loss of Zheng on the backend. Although they sold, they still have a decent lineup, and should surpass the 19 win mark easily, with nearly 9 guaranteed wins coming against TOR and TBB.

New Orleans Specters (+/- 36.5)
Fish: Over
I was initially leaning towards the under, as 37 wins is a high mark for what should be a highly competitive Western Conference, as each contender and pseudo contender like CGY, EDM, TEX, and WPG, each bought over the offseason, while only one playoff participant from last season, LAP, could truly be listed as sellers. With that in mind however, NOLA was also a major buyer in the offseason, giving up their future #1 center, MVDH, in order to acquire Poroshenko and Kirkby, adding an additional 1800+ defenceman to their core. With Cain remembering how to stop pucks in the playoffs, I think NOLA is likely to win the #1 seed in the West, and compete with Buffalo for the President’s Trophy.

San Francisco Pride (+/- 24.5)
Fish: Under
Honestly, I’m speechless. Enough has been said regarding this whole mess, there’s no point in beating a dead horse. Best of luck.

Tampa Bay Barracuda (+/- 3.5)
Fish: Under
I dont know what to say. 4 is such an achievable number, I just don’t know if they get there. Almost everyone in the Eastern Conference is better besides BAP, and even BAP should handle TBB with ease. Could they surprise a team like MIN and WPG? Sure, it’s just tough to envision that occurring 4 times this season.

Texas Renegades (+/- 24.5)
Fish: Over
TEX made a major move in the offseason, acquiring Czerkawski for cheap in the major clusterfuck of a situation that is the San Francisco Pride. Czerkawski, to go along with players in Kekkonen and Wachter that are near the top of their draft class, in addition to MVP contender Andreas Kvalheim, should result in TEX improving on their fifth place finish last season, making the leap from almost-playoff ready to playoff ready. This is a team, should they continue to buy, could be a huge thorn in the side of the Western Conference’s elite.

Toronto North Stars (+/- 12.5)
Fish: Under
A number of individuals tried to persuade me to go with the Over bet here, but I just don’t see it. The 4 guaranteed wins they had last season against TBB no longer look like they’re guaranteed, and even though other teams like NEW and BAP have sold, these teams still have good depth to them. I expect TOR to continue to grow as the season goes on, I just don’t see a path to 13 wins for the North Stars.

Winnipeg Jets (+/- 18.5)
Fish: Under
WPG should be better, but their team seems to be sort of put together. A group of aging veterans is being supplanted by a number of players expecting to peak in 2-3 seasons. With both groups of players a few seasons away from their peak seasons, and with the rest of the conference almost all expecting to make the playoffs, I’m not sure if this is the year for the Jets to break through.

Fish’s Summary
BAP: Over 14.5
BUF: Over 39.5
CGY: Over 30.5
CHI: Over 33.5
EDM: Over 34.5
HAM: Under 36.5
LAP: Under 26.5
MAN: Under 34.5
MIN: Under 11.5
NEW: Over 18.5
NOLA: Over 36.5
TBB: Under 3.5
SFP: Under 24.5
TEX: Over 24.5
TOR: Under 12.5
WPG: Under 18.5

Ready for Grading
Jeffie: 200 words
Fish: 1600 words