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juke · 07-28-2020, 08:04 PM

Season 55 of the SHL got underway yesterday, so along with @Faelax and @"reid_sutherland" from the SHN, we took one last detailed look at each team’s roster as we start the new season, breaking down their strengths and weaknesses and well as seeing how they rank in TPE relative to the league. To start, the two graphs below compare each team’s TPE at each positional group on a broad, league-wide scale. The graph on the left is average TPE for each team, while the graph on the right shows how much better or worse each team is compared to the league average TPE for each position (league average is shown at 1 by the dotted line). As a note, team goalie TPE and average goalie TPE are calculated as a ‘normalized’ or “prorated” TPE. Each team’s two goalies were weighted on a 44/6 split before averaging, to represent the 44 to 6 split of starts that we assume most teams will be doing. If a team is doing more of a tandem, then the weighted average shouldn’t skew the numbers too much, since their goalies would presumably be at similar TPEs. As we can see from the graphs, four teams (CGY, CHI, MAN, NOL) are starting the season above the average TPE at each position, while on the opposite end of the spectrum, three teams (BAP, MIN, TBB) will be starting the season below average for each.

The main portion of this piece will be to analyze each team’s individual roster, but first, the following three graphs rank each team on a league-wide scale, in terms of average TPE for each position.

Moving on to individual roster breakdowns, the following depth charts will have each player and their TPE listed for each team. The color, from red to green, shows how much below or above the player is relative to their position’s league average TPE (again, goalie average normalized to a 44-6 split).

Eastern Conference

Baltimore Platoon Platoon

Average team TPE: 904 (#15)

Average forward TPE: 901 (#15)

Average defenseman TPE: 878 (#13)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 997 (#10)

Strengths: Luca Del Vecchio is a highly skilled goalie who can steal games for you. Defenseman Nat Emerson is a strong presence in his own end who is able to chip in on offense. Besides those two, there are some good role players such as Krashwagen and Klaus, but not much beyond that.

Weaknesses: Baltimore’s forward group needs quite a bit of work. Ranked 15th in the league by average TPE, it’s a very shallow group. The 3rd line, of which all three players are under 700 TPE, is going to get tossed around by most other 3rd lines in the league, especially those from the contending teams. Depth across the whole lineup could definitely use some work.

Buffalo Stampede

Average team TPE: 1470 (#2)

Average forward TPE: 1531 (#2)

Average defenseman TPE: 1542 (#1)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 983 (#11)

Strengths: Buffalo has it all really. An elite first line of near 2k players, arguably the best defense in the league, great forward depth, and a great young goaltender. The defense is the real crown jewel of the buffalo lineup, having three defensemen around 1900 TPE, and even the 3rd pairing coming at 1100 TPE each makes this the toughest unit to play against in the league.

Weaknesses: Not much to write about here, as Buffalo is an incredibly stacked team. The only real weak point is the 3rd line of Okabe and Kurczewski, who still come in at a respectable 800 TPE each. Still useful players to have on your roster.

Chicago Syndicate

Average team TPE: 1398 (#5)

Average forward TPE: 1508 (#3)

Average defenseman TPE: 1272 (#7)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 1278 (#6)

Strengths: Chicago had an elite top line last season in D. Smeb-Westbroek-Selman and P Smeb-Kennedy on defense. They added a great depth piece in Ethan Ross to fill out an already great group of forwards. As long as Soonika has another good season, Chicago can be as deadly as any of the other top teams in the league.

Weaknesses: The Syndicate have a young bottom pair in Abel Skinner and LPLL that does well vs some of the weaker teams in the league but will definitely get exposed vs the top teams such as NOLA and BUF. But it shouldn’t be that big of a concern as they are both still young and improving.

Hamilton Steelhawks

Average team TPE: 1275 (#7)

Average forward TPE: 1284 (#8)

Average defenseman TPE: 1450 (#2)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 713 (#16)

Strengths: The Steelhawks always seem to get the most out of their players, and they got a couple of really nice ones in Zheng and Clapper to add to their arsenal this offseason. Add star center Aaron Wilson to the mix, along with a deep group of forwards, the lowest coming in at 845 TPE, and a strong defense of 1000+ players, and you have a great group of skaters.

Weaknesses: The goaltending. Ranked last in the league by average TPE, Jobin and Venables have a huge task ahead of them. While Hamilton is a good team at preventing shots, and a strong offense in front keeps the puck away from these goalies, I could see them costing them a couple games that they might have won with Kryyst still in net.

Manhattan Rage Rage

Average team TPE: 1415 (#3)

Average forward TPE: 1491 (#5)

Average defenseman TPE: 1340 (#6)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 1298 (#5)

Strengths: Another team that did some shopping this offseason, Manhattan made a couple of really nice additions with Wagstrom and Moore. The top two forward lines should all be above 1400 TPE. The defense is good, and the goaltending duo is very solid. Beibitzhanov should be one of the better backups in the league, which is nice to not worry about your backup starts turning into disasters.

Weaknesses: With only two players under the 800 TPE mark, the Rage look set to compete for the title this season. As long as rookie defender Juuka TImonen can play well, there shouldn’t be much for this roster to worry about from a talent standpoint.

New England Wolfpack

Average team TPE: 1107 (#11)

Average forward TPE: 1111 (#11)

Average defenseman TPE: 1221 (#8)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 747 (#15)

Strengths: Dominic Montgomery was an interesting add after selling, but he is a big addition to the defense, as a 1600 TPE player who can eat big minutes along with Perry Morgan. Some other high end talent stuck around, such as Eko van Otter and Slap McShotty. Mitchell van der Heijden and Sven Yxskaft are a couple of exciting young players who are stars in the making.

Weaknesses: Goaltending is a big question here. The Wolfpacks season likely rides on the back of rookie Frans Eller. Sitting at around 800 TPE, he certainly has a chance to do well as we saw Doyle do in Buffalo last season, but with a weaker group of skaters in front of him, only time will tell how he performs this season.

Tampa Bay Barracuda

Average team TPE: 758 (#16)

Average forward TPE: 840 (#16)

Average defenseman TPE: 573 (#16)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 941 (#12)

Strengths: The top line should be better than it was last season, and franchise legend Benjamin Blue is back for one more season.

Weaknesses: Tampa is in the middle of a complete tear down right now, and the bottom of their roster really reflects that. With a couple players who would be outclassed at the juniors level, there isn’t much that hasn’t been said already about how bad this roster should be.

Toronto North Stars Stars

Average team TPE: 978 (#13)

Average forward TPE: 1008 (#12)

Average defenseman TPE: 745 (#15)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 1540 (#2)

Strengths: North Stars fans get to enjoy the prime of Harry Carpet’s career. He is likely the best goalie in the league, sitting at 1726 TPE at the time of writing. Mika Kandisky and Bobby Lane are a formidable duo on the top line. Free agent signing Keith Lee comes in to help fill out the roster with all of the call ups in what should be an improvement over the last couple of seasons.

Weaknesses: While the rebuild is moving into its next phase in Toronto, there is still work to do. The young core, while exciting, will still need time to adjust to the big league, and will likely be lagging behind the TPE totals of the top teams in the league for a while, especially of those in the stacked Great Lakes division.

Western Conference

Calgary Dragons Dragons

Average team TPE: 1373 (#6)

Average forward TPE: 1340 (#6)

Average defenseman TPE: 1423 (#4)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 1372 (#3)

Strengths: This is a team to watch out for in the West. Calgary boasts 6 players over 1500 TPE to start the season, including starting netminder Kata Vilde. In particular, Calgary’s center position is something to note – with two players over 1700 TPE. Their defense is also impressive, as Calgary has all 6 defenders over 1100 TPE. With the addition of Leopold Lockhart, Calgary’s defense is truly one of the top in the SHL and should drive a significantly better season for Calgary.

Weaknesses: As alluded to above, Calgary disappointed last season, barely making the playoffs despite a stacked roster. There will be similar concerns this season – but the bolstering of the defense should help. The only obvious weakness here is Calgary’s third line of Joseph Weston, Alexei Rykov and Atlas Rush. The three are all younger players – so their low TPE isn’t anything to worry about overall, but it may pose an opportunity for deeper teams to exploit the lower TPE players. A slightly more variable weakness could be Kata Vilde, their goaltender. While high up on the TPE scale, Vilde struggled last season to the tune of a 0.890 sv%. Whether this was due to Calgary’s overall struggle, an inefficient build, or just pure puck luck will be more apparent this season.

Edmonton Blizzard

Average team TPE: 1404 (#4)

Average forward TPE: 1499 (#4)

Average defenseman TPE: 1382 (#5)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 1044 (#9)

Strengths: Edmonton’s roster composition is similar to Calgary’s – but better. The Blizzard boast 6 forwards over 1400 TPE and every single one of their forwards above 1200 TPE. They have superstars on forward such as Tony Pepperoni, Julio Tokolosh and Theo Morgan, and those three should carry the load for Edmonton. Even if Edmonton doesn’t balance their lines, a third line consisting of 3 1250+ TPE players is amazing, and would dominate some of the weaker third (or even 2nd) lines in the league. Besides their forwards, Edmonton also boasts a defense that has all 6 players over 1100 TPE. Led by stud Karlstrabe Scholz at 1921 TPE, the Blizzard defense is formidable.

Weaknesses: There really isn’t much weakness to talk about here, as Edmonton is stacked all over. If you had to nitpick (and I cannot stress enough how much of a nitpick this is) I might say that netminder Emiko Spector is a weakness for the Blizzard. She has a decent but not great 1119 TPE, so that could lead to some underperformance. However, behind this stacked team and defense, I wouldn’t expect her to struggle at all.

Los Angeles Panthers

Average team TPE: 1210 (#8)

Average forward TPE: 1187 (#10)

Average defenseman TPE: 1215 (#9)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 1302 (#4)

Strengths: The big strength that stands out here for Los Angeles is the defensive core. Their top 5 are all over 1100 TPE – pretty good for a mid-level team. Their 5th defender is an IA signing of 674 TPE so that isn’t great, but overall this is a strength for the Panthers. Their other obvious stand out is their goaltending. Knox Booth is one of the highest TPE goaltenders in the league, and their backup Nolan McMahon is pretty high for a backup goalie, as teams tend to sign a 200-300 TPE backup. This plus their strong defensive core means that their netminders should have a good season.

Weaknesses: Here what stands out thanks to Juke’s pretty colours is what should be the bottom line for the Panthers. Bischoff, Creller and Bobby are all under 1000 TPE, with Bobby checking in at 595 TPE. That 3rd line will find it tough to compete in the SHL – even if they are only matched up against other 3rd lines.

Minnesota Chiefs Chiefs

Average team TPE: 941 (#14)

Average forward TPE: 950 (#14)

Average defenseman TPE: 873 (#14)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 1107 (#8)

Strengths: There isn’t a lot to talk about for the Chiefs here. TPE wise, Noah Gallagher, Collin Gibbles and Mathias Seger stand out and should be the stars of the team. Besides these players, there isn’t much at a single position that qualifies as a strength, as all other skaters are under 1K TPE. The other strength here is Markus Tegernako, their goalie. He is almost at 1200 TPE which should result in Minnesota stealing some wins. Unfortunately for Tegernako, his team in front of him will not be the strongest in order to help him with this.

Weaknesses: As Minnesota is a rebuilder, their weaknesses aren’t all that big of a deal. That being said, there are a number of them to point out. Most obvious is Minnesota’s lack of centers. With Shouta Aizawa being the highest TPE center at 655, that spells trouble for the team now and in the future. On the wing the Chiefs look a little thin, but with prospects Cal Labovitch and Jmac NCheese making their rookie debuts, the team has options that will improve at a rapid pace. The other real weakness here is the defense. With only Seger above 1K TPE, this unit will struggle against the best teams in the west.

New Orleans Specters

Average team TPE: 1518 (#1)

Average forward TPE: 1557 (#1)

Average defenseman TPE: 1430 (#3)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 1610 (#1)

Strengths: The defending champions are in great shape to start S55. With 10 players over 1500 TPE, and all but 3 (not including the back up goalie) over 1250 TPE, most of the roster can be considered a strength. In particular, their forwards are stacked, as they boast 4 right wings over 1600 TPE. These players are likely to be playing a mixture of the forward positions so as to more evenly distribute the TPE. Their third line of Boris Poroshenko (1400+), Nicolaj Muller (1300+) and Thomas Vanice (950+) is a pretty clear strength for a third line, as Muller an Poroshenko are second line caliber players being matched up with the bottom lines of other teams. On defense, New Orleans is also loaded, as their top 5 is all over 1200 TPE, including three defenders over 1600 TPE. Finally there is Aleister Cain – the second highest TPE goalie in the league with 1723 TPE. New Orleans is full of strengths and is undoubtedly a contender to repeat.

Weaknesses: There is really not much to talk about here, as NOLA is stacked. If we want to nitpick, Thomas Vanice and Darnell Johnson are the two lowest TPE skaters on the team, with around 950ish TPE each. This is about a replacement level player, but as they will be on the bottom line and bottom pairing respectively, it won’t impact the Specters too much. Even their other sub 1000 TPE player – Olli Saarinen Jr. – is their backup goalie, and at 782 TPE checks in as a well above average backup goalie – so not really a weakness to speak about.

San Francisco Pride pride

Average team TPE: 1047 (#12)

Average forward TPE: 1001 (#13)

Average defenseman TPE: 1043 (#12)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 1261 (#7)

Strengths: With the fire-sale of the Pride, a lot of San Francisco’s strengths have been diluted. That plus regression has hit the squad hard. Their main strength would be their top pairing defense of Ray Bork and Charlie Schieck. This duo was their second line pairing last season, but will be asked to take on more minutes in S55. Other strengths of the Pride include a few of their top line players – Steven Moyer and Jeff Brogen are both over 1400 TPE and should carry the load for the Pride. In terms of goaltending, Geezus Kryyst and Cillian Kavanagh form a formidable duo, and will be even more so in the future. Kavanagh has a really solid TPE total and could be a starter for a lot of other teams. They will split starts, and will have to make up for the defensive weakness

Weaknesses: Since selling low on a lot of their top pieces, San Francisco has filled out the bottom of their roster with a lot of replacement or below replacement level players. With 5 forwards and 3 defenders all under 1K TPE, depth is San Francisco’s chief issue. In particular, their defense is more of an issue for them, as their second and third pairings will struggle against the mid and top level teams. Ultimately if San Francisco is rebuilding (which they should be), their weaknesses aren’t deal breakers.

Texas Renegades

Average team TPE: 1181 (#10)

Average forward TPE: 1279 (#9)

Average defenseman TPE: 1135 (#11)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 879 (#13)

Strengths: For a team that made a really strong push to the playoffs, Texas has a surprising lack of green on this graph above. Andreas Kvalheim is the clear stand out at 1944 TPE and should carry the team as a superstar this season once again. Piotr Czerkawski is a welcome addition from San Francisco to bolster the top line with almost 1500 TPE. Their defense is also turning into a strength, as their top two pairings are all over 1200 TPE and growing. This time next season they will be in a really good position as it might be their primary strength.

Weaknesses: What stands out here is Texas’s forward depth and their goaltending situation. Their forward depth is lacking now, but actively improving with most of their core being young. Their goaltending situation looks dicey, but with the former co-GM building the starting goaltender White Goodman, their future should be solid, even if it is a bit of a weakness in S55. Texas also has a weaker bottom defensive pairing of Adam Scianna and Guy O’Shea. They are also a pair of rookies and actively improving – so this is really a non issue for Texas.

Winnipeg Jets Jets

Average team TPE: 1200 (#9)

Average forward TPE: 1297 (#7)

Average defenseman TPE: 1173 (#10)

Average normalized goalie TPE: 847 (#14)

Strengths: For a team that missed the playoffs, the Jets have a surprising number of strengths going into S55. With 6 forwards at or above 1200 TPE – including Nick Brain who is de facto 2K and Commander Shepard close to 1800 – the forward core for the Jets is very solid and their top two lines should be able to hang with the contenders of the west. Their third line is all under 1K TPE, but with Reid Sutherland and Bale being improving youngsters, their depth shouldn’t be an issue much longer. As for the defenders, Slip McScruff headlines a solid group as he hit 2K TPE last season. Youngsters Adam Barron and Zlatan Ibrahimovic Jr are both solid and well over 1K TPE. The bottom pairing of Magnus Liljestrom and Osbert Whacker are the lower TPE points here, but Liljestrom is a rookie and will improve immensely.

Weaknesses: As mentioned above, the third line of forwards and third pairing of defenders are the weaker points for the Jets. They will get better, but if the Jets goal is to get to the playoffs these lines will be the weaker points. Their netminding stands out TPE wise, but with Strom Chamberlain being a S51 prospect making his rookie debut – that really isn’t a weakness for the Jets, and in fact will be a strength in a season or two.

Code:
Please split pay equally between Faelax, Reid, and myself

***luke*** · 07-28-2020, 08:30 PM

MAN good

ml002 · 07-28-2020, 08:36 PM

Fuck. The. Great. Lakes.

Credit to Copenhagen, Wasty, FlappyGiraffe, InciteHysteria, and caltroit_red_flames
[Image: MM4nqx6.png]

***Chevy*** · 07-28-2020, 10:13 PM

*Cough* Season 52 *cough*

SlashACM · 07-28-2020, 10:37 PM

07-28-2020, 10:13 PMGeekusoid Wrote: *Cough* Season 52 *cough*

Bro wtf you got corona

***Chevy*** · 07-28-2020, 10:38 PM

07-28-2020, 10:37 PMSlashACM Wrote:
07-28-2020, 10:13 PMGeekusoid Wrote: *Cough* Season 52 *cough*

Bro wtf you got corona

Agigoonitis

reid · 07-28-2020, 10:53 PM

07-28-2020, 10:13 PMGeekusoid Wrote: *Cough* Season 52 *cough*

And it was me who wrote that, idk what I was thinking

*Katth* · 07-29-2020, 01:50 AM

Pay the man

S50 Challenge Cup Finals Game 7
[Image: gNFVjT6.png]

*Carpy48* · 07-29-2020, 02:24 AM

07-28-2020, 08:36 PMml002 Wrote: Fuck. The. Great. Lakes.

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