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grok · 08-24-2020, 01:35 PM

Earlier this season, the SHL Head Office announced significant changes to player contracts. A new contract tier was added for players over 1600 TPE, increasing their minimum contract value to $6 million per season. The Chicago Syndicate were already suffering from some cap-related concerns in the S55 offseason, but this change in contract value could impact their ability to acquire free agents and pay mid-value skaters.

Before we begin, we should discuss my methodology. For the purposes of this deep dive, we will assume that all players will re-sign for the same contract value. For rookies coming to the SHL, we will assume they sign for the same cap hit or the minimum for their band, whichever is higher. We will use each player’s TPE count on this day to determine if they increase in minimum contract. If a player is on a minimum or near minimum contract and they have enough TPE to advance to a higher TPE tier, we will increase their salary to the minimum for that salary band.

First, we should consider what roster changes the Syndicate is considering for next season. Rookies Ryuuji Minamino and Patric Twist are almost sure-thing call-ups next season. The S53 wingers are both active and have maxed out their SMJHL waiver exemptions, so they will be on the main roster. This leaves two of Chicago’s nine forwards going to free agency or retirement, which is fairly easy to solve. Ethan Ross has retired, and S42 winger Cameron Carter II is both a UFA at season’s end and deep in regression with 1152 TPE. Cutting these two makes room for Minamino and Twist to promote to the big leagues.

At forward, the new changes put the screws to the Syndicate. Forwards Daniel Smeb, Martijn Westborek, and Lallo Sellman all need new deals at the new $6m salary band. In addition, forwards Patric Twist and Ryuuji Minamino, while cheaper than their alternatives, move a significant portion of salary out of the protected send-down budget and into the main roster budget. At $35 million with every single player taking a minimum contract, the forward group salary total grows by $3 million. Even though Chicago sheds $4 million by changing CCII and Ross for Minamino and Twist, the 1600+ TPE tier combined with Chicago’s short-term contract structure forces a significant increase in cap hit.

On defense, Chicago’s roster is pretty straightforward. No retirements, no required call-ups. However, there are five contracts to sign. Parker Smeb would get tagged with the 1600+ tier, bumping him from 5m to 6m, but I believe Smeb will regress just under 1599 and cost the team $5m for another season. Meanwhile, future franchise defenseman Akira Ren gets a huge pay raise from $3 million to $5 million per season. Third pairing prospects Skinner and Lespineau-Lebrunette don’t get mandatory raises, but need new contracts and are being paid above their TPE bands. It’s possible Chicago could shed an extra $1.5m by convincing the prospects to sign at the minimum, but even then they will see increased cap hit at defense--a $500,000 increase if they can undersign LPLL and Skinner, and a whopping $2 million increase if they can’t.

Goaltending is a minor cash saving. Franchise goaltender Tibuk Soonika will see a $5 million minimum cap hit, and Sorokin should safely regress to the $1 million mark. That said, I would not be surprised to see the Syndicate drop Sorokin and sign prospect Junior Guarda as a true rookie call-up to ride the backup position for even cheaper.

Assuming all players sign in accordance with our methodology, the Chicago Syndicate will have $3.5 million in cap space. This does not include send-down budget required for picks in the S56 entry draft, and doesn’t account for any TPE earned during championship week or the early off-season. However, Chicago has some ways to grind out a little supplementary cash. With Ross’s retirement, Chicago has an open Hometown Discount slot, which they could use on one of Selman, D. Smeb, or Westbroek to save $2 million. Chicago could also commit to a lower TPE backup goaltender by signing Guarda and promoting him, saving $500,000. The expansion draft will see at least two players leave Chicago, one of which could be a mid-level forward in regression like Nolan Sawchuck.

Even with all those savings considered, a deep S56 draft full of high-quality first-gens and recreates means Chicago will leave a ton of money on the table in send-down budget. Fortunately Chicago is positioned well for S56, as it will likely be very hard for them to pay out any journeyman type players on their roster or attract the top tier of free agents hitting the market. It will be up to their negotiating, prestige, and possibly additional term to lure top FAs to Chicago.

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Approved! +5 TPE @grok

grok · 08-26-2020, 12:32 PM

An addendum--I actually came to a not-quite-correct conclusion on this piece because I misunderstood how the budget sheet works. Twist's and Minamino's contracts aren't actually counted against the cap in my spreadsheets above. When included, the forward budget increases to $39 million and the team's overall cap space decreases to $500,000.

That considered, I have to revise my conclusion--it will be nearly impossible for Chicago to sign free agents of any quality in the offseason if they plan on drafting any players in the S56 SHL entry draft, unless they move substantial player contracts out.

**.bojo** · 08-26-2020, 12:50 PM

When did Chicago get so good

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