Disclaimer: I don’t intend for this to be offensive to any of the players or people on the awards committee. I didn’t bring this to the thunder dome because that isn’t helpful for anything and I don’t think anyone involved deserves shade thrown or anything like that. I do think that this presents a good opportunity to look more in depth at how a defensive player can be analyzed when we can’t actually observe them playing.
Double Disclaimer: I am biased since this involves my player. If you feel I over step somewhere or over value stats please share your thoughts. I am doing my best to put all these players on a level playing field while not taking a math class in close to 20 years.
The nominations for the Bojo Biscuit Award were announced and in my opinion, once again with no disrespect to the nominees, two players were snubbed big time: Mathias Seger of the Minnesota Chiefs and Nat Emerson of the Baltimore Platoon. Are my opinions based in fact or am I just raging because my player didn’t get a nom? Fuck if I know let’s check it out.
(Note: The award show happened while writing this so a big congratulations to Alexander Selich on winning the award.)
The first thing to note between the nominees and Seger and Emerson are their teams. All three nominees are from playoff teams with very good to excellent possession numbers. The lowest CF% on Calgary, Buffalo, and Edmonton were 50, 58.2, and 62.9 respectively. Conversely, the highest CF% for Minnesota was 31.3 and Baltimore 40.4 (which was Nat Emerson’s). With such a large disparity between possession numbers certain stats will be skewed toward each group. The nominees will obviously have the better possession and goals against while the two on the outside looking in will have better blocks and takeaways. To make matters worse I have heard on a few different occasions that shot blocks are seen as a garbage stat now.
In the 2018-2019 NHL season there was about an 8 percent difference in team CF% with the top team having 54.12% and the worst team 46.88. In the SHL world however it is a different story. The average CF% for Calgary this past season was 56.7%, Buffalo a 66.96%, and Edmonton a 66.24%. Meanwhile Minnesota had a CF% of 27.98% and Baltimore a 37.16%. So close to a 30 or 40% difference in CF% between MIN BAP and CGY BUF and EDM.
Individually, the best CF% in the NHL in the 2018-19 season with at least 50 games played was 59.64 and the worst 41.3, about an 18 percent gap between the best and the worst. Again in the SHL this is horribly skewed with the best being Selich’s 70.2 and the worst in the league a 17.9 a more than 50% difference.
I can understand the argument that Seger and Emerson will have inflated blocks and hits because they will be seeing so much more rubber thrown at their net but the other side of that coin is that the three nominees will have inflated goals against and shots for numbers. Why aren’t those seen as inflated especially when they are much more dependent on the team around them and the incredible disparity between the teams at the top and the bottom?
I want to try and level the playing field and apply the best corsi of these five defensive dynamos, Alexander Selich’s 70.2 or Seger’s 28.7 depending on the statistic, and normalize the stats (maybe? I’m no statistician). For every adjusted stat with a decima that doesn’t use them in the indexl I will round up. Moving everyone up to Selich’s CF% yields these results:
Adjusted shot blocks:
Emerson - 164
Seger - 154
Selich - 45
Scholz - 52
Kennedy Jr. - 98
Both Emerson and Seger still have a considerable lead in blocks after adjustment.
Adjusted hits:
Emerson - 92
Seger - 52
Selich - 60
Scholz - 111
Kennedy Jr. - 42
Seger edges out Kennedy Jr in adjusted hits but not the other two. Emerson jumps Selich and Kennedy Jr. Scholz remains on top.
Adjusted Takeaways:
Emerson - 35
Seger - 26
Selich - 22
Scholz - 37
Kennedy Jr. - 27
Adjusted takeaways still has Seger over Selich but not the other two. Emerson jumps both Selich and Kennedy Jr but not Scholz.
Adjusted Giveaways:
Emerson - 16
Seger - 22
Selich - 12
Scholz - 16
Kennedy Jr. - 11
In adjusted giveaways Seger stays on the outside looking in and Kennedy staying the most responsible. Emerson ends up matching Scholz with 16 giveaways.
Adjusted for possession goals against does become much closer but both Seger and Emerson do not pass any of the nominees. Scholz and Kennedy Jr both surpass Selich though.
Adjusted Shots For:
Emerson - 32.7
Seger - 27.7
Selich - 47.1
Scholz - 47.5
Kennedy Jr. - 41.3
The three nominees still have a commanding lead in this category after adjustments. However, why is an offensive stat like this considered for best defensive defenseman?
As far as stats that can be adjusted I think that it is it. Seger ends up edging out at least one of the nominees in three of the categories and Emerson three with a tie in another.
In time on ice and short handed time Seger tops all three nominees and plays more than three times as much on the PK than Selich. For Emerson he plays more than the three nominees at even strength and more than Selich and equal to Scholz on the PK just slightly behind Kennedy Jr.
So of the nine stats here Seger has is ahead of at least one nominee in 5 and is ahead of all three nominees in 3 of them. Emerson is ahead of at least one nominee in 5 along with one tie and ahead of all three noms in 2 of those categories.
So I’ll leave it up to you to decide if either Seger or Emerson was snubbed or if both were or if they weren’t at all. Without a doubt classifying defensive player in a sim is going to be very difficult and there are arguments to be made from all side about what is more important. Maybe builds should be looked at when it comes to determining the defensive defenseman of the year? At the moment two of the nominees have a higher offensive read stat than defensive with the other at the same score. Seger has the lowest offensive read of the five in this piece with a 15 OR and a big old 20 for defensive read. Should that matter? Should TPE matter? Emerson is the only player here that is under 1800 TPE playing in the 1600s during the season. Should that influence who is playing better defensively?
Like I said at the beginning of the piece I’m not calling out anyone and I hope it didn’t come off that way. I think all three nominees are excellent players, way fucking better than I am, but with their statlines should be duking it out for the Stevens. I built Emerson to block shots, strip pucks, and take the body to be the lock down number 1 defender. I haven’t talked to Seger but I am sure he is the same. That build was made specifically to take a run at winning a Bojo. Having it come down that those stats basically don’t matter for the defensive award doesn’t make sense to me especially after a few seasons back both Seger and Emerson just missed out on a nom because we were lacking in hits and shot blocks according to the noms.
I truly hope this didn’t come off as whiny. That was never my intention. I just think that in regards to the defensive awards things could be better.
Much love to the committee, nominees, and Selich on the win.
I would really just like to know who is Biscuit for. To me it feels that there is a difference between what we think this award is for and what it actually is aiming to award, and instead of me just sitting here being "Alright he was better than me that's fair", I am just sitting here thinking "These people shouldn't be competing for this award, why are they nommed?", and it leaves me frustrated.
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I already offered some of my thoughts in the Awards thread so I'm not gonna take up any more space in here before other people could weigh in. You definitely presented some interesting stats to look at! To provide some additional context for this discussion I'm gonna post the full nomination breakdown just so that you guys can get a better feel for how the vote actually shaped up. I hope my fellow committee members don't mind, but we have released these things in the past and I have already seen stuff like it circulate in some LRs anyway, so might just as well be fully transparent.:
Bojo Biscuit Award (Best Defensive Defenseman) - At least 3, no more than 5 - Brennan Kennedy Jr. 4 (Baelor Swift, reid, RomanesEuntDomus, Buster)
- Karlstrasse Scholz 4 (Baelor Swift, reid, karlssens, RomanesEuntDomus)
- Alexander Selich 3 (karlssens, Buster, frithjofr)* - Poopity Scoop 3 (Baelor Swift, karlssens, RomanesEuntDomus)*
- Nat Emerson 2 (RomanesEuntDomus, TnlAstatine)
- FR Finn-Rhys 1 (Baelor Swift)
- Slip McScruff 1 (reid)
- Barret McCarthy 1 (RomanesEuntDomus)
- Brady McIntyre 1 (Baelor Swift)
- Parker Smeb 1 (Buster)
- Mathias Seger 1 (TnlAstatine)
- Gabriel Johnson 1 (TnlAstatine)
- Tony Ford 1 (frithjofr)
- Andrej Doskocil 1 (frithjofr)
09-19-2020, 09:03 AM(This post was last modified: 09-19-2020, 09:13 AM by RomanesEuntDomus.)
Quote:As far as stats that can be adjusted I think that it is it. Seger ends up edging out at least one of the nominees in three of the categories and Emerson three with a tie in another.
In time on ice and short handed time Seger tops all three nominees and plays more than three times as much on the PK than Selich. For Emerson he plays more than the three nominees at even strength and more than Selich and equal to Scholz on the PK just slightly behind Kennedy Jr.
So of the nine stats here Seger has is ahead of at least one nominee in 5 and is ahead of all three nominees in 3 of them. Emerson is ahead of at least one nominee in 5 along with one tie and ahead of all three noms in 2 of those categories.
I don't particularly agree with all those metrics you used, some of them I think don't work very well, but if I do use them to look at it as head-to-head match-up then these are the results:
Scholz vs. Emerson 6-3
Scholz vs. Seger 6-3
Kennedy vs. Emerson 7-2
Kennedy vs. Seger 5-4
Selich vs. Emerson 4-5
Selich vs. Seger 5-4
So Scholz and Kennedy beat both Seger and Emerson in 1v1 and between Selich and Seger/Emerson it's super close. Which is pretty in line with my voting actually since I nommed Scholz and Kennedy but not Selich and I did nominate Emerson but not Seger, who did slightly weaker.
Quote:As far as stats that can be adjusted I think that it is it. Seger ends up edging out at least one of the nominees in three of the categories and Emerson three with a tie in another.
In time on ice and short handed time Seger tops all three nominees and plays more than three times as much on the PK than Selich. For Emerson he plays more than the three nominees at even strength and more than Selich and equal to Scholz on the PK just slightly behind Kennedy Jr.
So of the nine stats here Seger has is ahead of at least one nominee in 5 and is ahead of all three nominees in 3 of them. Emerson is ahead of at least one nominee in 5 along with one tie and ahead of all three noms in 2 of those categories.
I don't particularly agree with all those metrics you used, some of them I think don't work very well, but if I do use them to look at it as head-to-head match-up then these are the results:
Scholz vs. Emerson 6-3
Scholz vs. Seger 6-3
Kennedy vs. Emerson 7-2
Kennedy vs. Seger 5-4
Selich vs. Emerson 4-5
Selich vs. Seger 5-4
So Scholz and Kennedy beat both Seger and Emerson in 1v1 and between Selich and Seger/Emerson it's super close. Which is pretty in line with my voting actually since I nommed Scholz and Kennedy but not Selich and I did nominate Emerson but not Seger, who did slightly weaker.
So in essence you’re saying Emerson was 4th and Seger finish tied for 5th?
09-19-2020, 09:03 AMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: I don't particularly agree with all those metrics you used, some of them I think don't work very well, but if I do use them to look at it as head-to-head match-up then these are the results:
Scholz vs. Emerson 6-3
Scholz vs. Seger 6-3
Kennedy vs. Emerson 7-2
Kennedy vs. Seger 5-4
Selich vs. Emerson 4-5
Selich vs. Seger 5-4
So Scholz and Kennedy beat both Seger and Emerson in 1v1 and between Selich and Seger/Emerson it's super close. Which is pretty in line with my voting actually since I nommed Scholz and Kennedy but not Selich and I did nominate Emerson but not Seger, who did slightly weaker.
So in essence you’re saying Emerson was 4th and Seger finish tied for 5th?
4th/5th in what exactly? I personally would rank them Scholz/Kennedy > Emerson > Selich > Seger.
09-19-2020, 11:22 AM(This post was last modified: 09-19-2020, 11:25 AM by karlssens.)
Wow Scholz should’ve won.
But on a more serious note awesome article. Given me some food for thought next awards season. The metrics I use are largely possession based with blocks and hits as secondary markers, but I may need to revise that.
Those are the criteria YOU chose, so let's do the head-to-head match-ups based on those:
Scholz vs. Doskocil 5-2
Kennedy vs. Doskocil 4-3
Selich vs. Doskocil 4-3
Emerson vs. Doskocil 4-3
Loses every single match-up even using your cherry-picked stats. Not a snub. Next.
Look I like you guys in Manhattan, I really do, but stuff like this is why I can barely take you seriously in the context of Awards disussions anymore. Every season you complain about someone from your team being snubbed and every time it's not backed up by the stats, unlike with Emerson who has a legitimate case.
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