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majesiu · 09-28-2020, 04:50 PM

So this time I plan on the series covering not some historical redrafts or predicting lineups for the season (though I plan on doing deep dive on to FHM player roles one the dust settles after inaugural week adjustments). Instead, I'll focus on evaluating team assets, which can be divided into five groups:
- Player contracts
- Player rights (mostly RFA, UFA worth mentioning. but since it's not binding it's hard to put a value on that)
- Draft Picks
- Salary cap space
- Retention & HTDs

The latter three are rather easy in the evaluation and comparing in between teams, but as always with players, or rather users it's much harder to put a value on that. So my assumption will be made based mostly on player's tpe, regression class and especially terms of contracts - how long is it, for how much and whether other clauses are attached like htd or ntcs.
Throughout I'll assign Current SHL Trade value (CSTV) to each part since this will be the first edition of this series it's likely to evolve later on, but let's put the initial concept into values, starting with salary-cap space:
- Current season salary cap space/1,000,000
- Next season salary cap space/10,000,000
- Salary cap two-season away/25,000,000
The reasoning here is that to make moves in the current season, which trade value focuses on, you need first and foremost space now, whether to absorb a deal or offer salary retention.
Retention will be judged on per case basis, teams get 0.5 CSTV per available retention (max of 4 - 2 incoming & 2 outgoing) & avaliable HTDs.
Draft picks as follow since I won't be distinctive here in between teams, only giving value based on Draft Round. Maybe later in the season, I'll reassess in the final edition based on team standings. 1st Round Pick - 25 CSTV, 2nd - 14, 3rd - 7, 4th - 3, 5th - 1.
And now the most interesting and the hardest part of the equation, which is the player contracts, where I plan to use the multiplicative system to adjust for contracts length.
Let's start with player value though, where various modifiers will be used, starting with basic TPE:
- TPE/100 e.g. 1500 TPE = 15 CSTV
Then it's time to adjust for regression class
- -(46- regression class)
It's a negative value since getting old in SHL isn't a good thing and to show that regressing players aren't worth as much, especially in longer-term deals
Next part is about salary, which we will go by minimum for current TPE:
- -(Salary difference to minimum/1,000,000)
calculated for each year on the contract, it's inverted factor, since if it's above minimum then it doesn't add value, but if it's below all the better. This part also covers the benefits of the htd, so no further adjustments are made.
- Clauses
+5 for each Team Option, -5 for each player option, MO neutral, -10 for full NTC*amount of seasons (and proportionately for limited NTCs)
- IA
if the player is IA the value is getting halved
- Duration
we multiply calculated CSTV for every year on the deal, if the player is RFA it's treated as yet another year on the contract

Without further ado let's start with likely one of most interesting teams of the last offseason as they just started their journey with the SHL (and maybe, more importantly, seems to be most up to date with SHL Budget 2.0. the sheet that was a great help in making this article). Seattle will likely be next

Salary Cap Space S56: $ 1,000,000 - CSTV: 1
Salary Cap Space S57: $ 34,000,000 - CSTV: 3.4
Salary Cap Space S58: $ 72,000,000 - CSTV: 2.88

Draft Picks:
S57: ATL 1st, ATL 2nd, ATL 3rd, ATL 4th, ATL 5th - CSTV: 50
S58: ATL 1st, ATL 2nd, ATL 3rd, ATL 4th, ATL 5th - CSTV: 50
S59: ATL 1st, ATL 2nd, ATL 3rd, ATL 4th, ATL 5th - CSTV: 50

Retention & HTDs:
Retaining Single deal incoming & outgoing - CSTV: 1
Used HTDs: 1, CSTV: 0.5

Non-player assets:
Salary Cap - 7,28 CSTV
Draft Picks - 150 CSTV
Retention: - 1.5 CSTV
Total: 158,78 CSTV

Forwards:
Player: Eko Van Otter, Position: C
TPE: 2054, Regression Class: S47
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 6,000,000 S57 $ 6,000,000
CSTV: 43,08

Player: Carlos Brown, Position: LW
TPE: 724, Regression Class: S53
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,000,000 S57 $ 3,000,000 S58 $ 3,000,000 S59 UFA
CSTV: 42,72

Player: Elijah Jones, Position: RW
TPE: 1671, Regression Class: S49
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 6,000,000 S57 $ 6,000,000 (PO) S58 UFA
CSTV: 34,42

Player: C.T. Carragher, Position: C
TPE: 590, Regression Class: S52
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,000,000 S57 $ 3,000,000
CSTV: 19,8

Player: Manuel Gotze, Position: RW
TPE: 1333, Regression Class: S40
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 4,000,000 S57 $ 4,000,000 S58 UFA
CSTV: 18,66

Player: Keith Lee, Position: RW
TPE: 1149, Regression Class: S52
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 4,000,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 17,49

Player: Patric Twist, Position: RW
TPE: 719, Regression Class: S53
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,500,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 13,69

Player: Nathan Explosion, Position: LW
TPE: 1091, Regression Class: S46
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 4,000,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 10,91

Player: Nolan Sawchuk, Position: RW
TPE: 1116, Regression Class: S45
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 4,000,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 10,16

Player: Rainbow Dash, Position: LW
TPE: 873, Regression Class: S44
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,000,000 S57 $ 3,000,000 (PO) S58 UFA
CSTV: 8,46

Player: Filip Zadina, Position: RW
TPE: 941, Regression Class: S47 - IA
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,500,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 4,955

Player: Andrey Barbashev II, Position: LW
TPE: 697, Regression Class: S50
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 2,000,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 2,985

Total Forwards: 227,33

Defence:
Player: Simon LeBlanc, Position: D
TPE: 1266, Regression Class: S48
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 4,000,000 S57 $ 4,000,000 S58 UFA
CSTV: 29,32

Player: Geoff Moore, Position: D
TPE: 1365, Regression Class: S42
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 4,000,000 S57 $ 4,000,000
CSTV: 23,3

Player: Guy Zheng, Position: D
TPE: 1928, Regression Class: S46
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 6,000,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 19,28

Player: Guy O'Shea, Position: D
TPE: 945, Regression Class: S52
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 1,000,000 (Retention active) S57 UFA
CSTV: 17,45

Player: DeMaricus Smyth, Position: D
TPE: 1219, Regression Class: S39
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,000,000 S57 $ 3,000,000 S58 UFA
CSTV: 14,38

Player: Brady McIntyre, Position: D
TPE: 1381, Regression Class: S39
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 5,000,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 6,81

Player: Maximilian Egger, Position: D
TPE: 933, Regression Class: S43
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 4,000,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 5,33

Player: Khan Smeb, Position: D
TPE: 588, Regression Class: S47
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 2,000,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 3,44

Total Defence: 119,31

Goalies
Player: Mike Hroch, Position: G
TPE: 552, Regression Class: S51
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 2,000,000 S57 $ 2,000,000 (TO) S58 UFA
CSTV: 26,04

Player: Samat Beibitzhanov, Position: G
TPE: 825, Regression Class: S52
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,000,000 S57 UFA
CSTV: 14,25

Total Goalies: 40,29

Send downs:
Player: Michael Withecheck, Position: D
TPE: 395, Regression Class: S56
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,500,000 S57 $ 3,000,000 S58 RFA S59 UFA
CSTV: 22,35

Player: Stan Q. Next, Position: C
TPE: 392, Regression Class: S55
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,000,000 S57 $ 3,000,000 (MO) S58 UFA
CSTV: 17,84

Player: Josh Dolphin, Position: C
TPE: 316, Regression Class: S56
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,500,000 S57 RFA S58 RFA S59 UFA
CSTV: 16,98

Player: Kenji Sugimoto, Position: RW
TPE: 296, Regression Class: S56
Deal Terms:
S56 $ 3,500,000 S57 $ 3,000,000 S58 RFA S59 UFA
CSTV: 14,88

Total Send downs: 72,05

And to summarize everything in the end:
Non-player assets:
Salary Cap - 7,28 CSTV
Draft Picks - 150 CSTV
Retention: - 1.5 CSTV
Total: 158,78 CSTV
Player assets:
Total Forwards: 227,33 CSTV
Total Defence: 119,31 CSTV
Total Goalies: 40,29 CSTV
Total Send downs: 72,05 CSTV
All players: 458,98 CSTV

Whole Atlanta CSTV: 617,76

I already see quite a lot to improve here, especially in the evaluation of players, since regression class isn't as important in case of 1-year deals where someone like Brady McIntyre might actually be more valuable Keith Lee due to the amount of TPE, same with Guy Zheng who as a maxed-out player even on 1-year rental could nab 1st. Another glaring issue is with overvaluation of team control of low TPE prospects like Mike Hroch, but on the other hand, rookie minimums are deflating the value of sent downs. So while it's work in progress I wanted to release the first part of this cycle both to hear your opinions as quickly as possible and to celebrate the start of the new season - Blessed S56, everyone!

*Zoone16* · 09-28-2020, 05:36 PM

But do GM/Co-GM players really have any CSTV if you think about it?

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