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FinnRhys · 10-09-2020, 08:03 AM

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We are a little under halfway through the season and the Western Conference of the SHL is sizing up to be another heated battle… for second. With the Calgary Dragons holding the reins of the conference with a sizable, but not insurmountable, 7 point lead over their nearest contenders for the top spot in the conference, five teams are in the hunt for that second position and potentially a run at first should the Dragons momentum falter. Teams like the Edmonton Blizzard, New Orleans Specters, Texas Renegades, Los Angeles Panthers and Winnipeg Jets are all in contention and appear poised to make a concerted push in the second half of the season to close the gap amongst each other and with Calgary. Before we take a look at how each of those five teams can make a run for the Western Conference, we will need to take a moment and understand how we have gotten to the halfway mark of the season and how Calgary find itself in the top spot in the Western Conference.

Calgary Dragons Dragons

: It really is no surprise why Calgary has cemented itself with the top spot in the Western Conference with 34 points coming from 16 wins, 1 loss and 2 overtime losses. In simplistic terms, Calgary has scored more goals than it has given up, an expected formula for winning. What makes Calgary’s ascent to the top so intriguing, though, is how few goals the team has given up. Through 19 games the Dragons have given up 19 goals…. Nineteen! That is an astounding statistic and bodes well for the adage that defense wins championships coming true in Calgary’s case. To this point in the season Kata Vilde has been the best goaltender in the league by a wide margin. With seven shutouts to her credit she has clearly been a stalwart in net and one of the reasons Calgary’s defense has proven so effective. But that is really only half the story because with a little bit of analysis it is clear that while the Calgary goaltender corps has contributed significantly it is the Calgary blue liners that really deserve a lot of credit. Calgary’s solid line up of blue liners, including Brennan Kennedy Jr., Otis Driftwood, Leopold Lockhart and Bradly Barkov, have limited the number of shots taken on Vilde. Indeed, of all the regular starting goalies in the league Vilde has the fewest amount of shots that she has had to deal with, and in true fashion of hockey being really a pretty simple game, the fewer shots taken the fewer chances of giving up a goal. It really does make sense, doesn’t it? Low numbers of shots combined with an All Star goaltender makes for a winning combination.

Calgary’s offense is also nothing to overlook. While they are not the best in the league they are tied with Edmonton as the top scoring offense in the conference and hold an incredible +53 goal differential between goals for and goals against. What makes Calgary’s offense so potent is their incredible balance. Seven Calgary players (Boris Boroshenko, Brennan Kennedy Jr., Mikael Choybuk, Esa Parmborg, Barry Batsbak, Maxime Bouchard and Joseph Weston) have 15 points or more with Batsbak, Bouchard, and Parmborg pacing the team with 26, 25 and 24 points respectively. What is all the more impressive with the scoring and point production is the balance within the offense created by the unselfish play of the Calgary forwards. Indeed, Batsbak is the closest player to being considered primarily a goal scorer, leading the team with 13 goals, but even he is incredibly balanced tallying 13 assists. With such balanced threats that are as liable to pass the puck as to shoot, it gives Calgary a potent offense with defenses being unable to focus their tactics against any single player. With such balance on offense and an iron curtain defense, it will be tough for any team to edge Calgary out of the top spot in the Western Conference.

Edmonton Blizzard

: While the race for the top spot in the Western Confernce is not over, it will be incredibly difficult for any team to supplant Calgary. That said, one of the teams with the potential to lock down the second position in the west and potentially make a run on Calgary for the top spot is this season’s edition of the Edmonton Blizzard. One of the most consistently high performing teams the last few seasons, Edmonton has found itself, again, competing for a playoff berth and hoping to play the bride and not the bridesmaid in the finals. Behind a balanced approach on offense and defense, Edmonton has made its mark this season being one of the better teams in the league defensively while also leading the Western Conference in goals for. Edmonton’s defensive orthodoxy of bend but don’t break has proven to have worked and consistently has been the catalyst for the Blizzard’s breakout, fast-paced style of play. Even so, with 27 points from 13 wins, 6 losses and 1 overtime loss, Edmonton has found itself 7 points behind a Calgary team that has proven hard to defeat. In their only meeting thus far this season, Edmonton defeated Calgary in overtime 3-2, showing how close these two teams are and how there is the potential to defeat such a foe. That said, Edmonton’s defense needs to exert itself more and impose its will upon opposing offenses much more consistently for it to make up ground in the points standings.

Far from a moribund defense, the blue liners have lately appeared more preoccupied with starting the offensive rush than actually preventing shots from getting on net. Veteran defenseman Jon Toner has been charged with mentoring the younger defenseman and it appears that players like Denver Wolfe, Danila Zhernov and Connor Tanner have heeded his advice while players like Karlstrasse Scholz and FR Finn-Rhys have not, instead deciding to eschew their defensive responsibilities more often than not as evidenced by their low +/- rating compared to their compatriots. At the same time, however, that defensive ability to start offensive play and to be involved with the forwards on creating goal scoring chances has been one of Edmonton’s hallmarks. Edmonton currently boasts six players with 15 or more points (Karlstrasse Scholz, FR Finn-Rhys, Tony Pepperoni, Julio Tokolosh, Barrett Blackwood, and Jon Forty-One) of which two are defenseman. While this ability to jump start the offense has proven beneficial it has also been greatly helped by the ascendency of Julio Tokolosh, Barrett Blackwood, Jon Forty-One, Jean-Paul Boivin and James Truong taking over the mantle for Edmonton great, perennial All Star and future Hall of Famer Tony Pepperoni. While the aging Pepperoni is still a contributor, he clearly has moved into a more leadership focused role where he can impart his wisdom on some of the younger players coming up through the ranks. Indeed, no single player has proven he can replace Pepperoni’s scoring output, or that of Bo Kane or Theo Morgan who both played for Edmonton last season, but the franchise has shown that they don’t need that. Instead, Edmonton has gone with a scoring by committee approach and, at least thus far, it has worked. If Edmonton is going to contend, however, they will have to find a little extra in the gas tank on both the offensive and defensive ends of the ice.

New Orleans Specters

: The next team vying for the second position in the Western Conference and a run at the top spot is the New Orleans Specters. New Orleans has been a very good franchise the last few seasons, winning a Simulation Hockey League Championship only two seasons ago. Currently tied for second in the conference with 27 points from 11 wins, 5 losses and 5 overtime losses, New Orleans has had a tough time outright winning games. Even so, their ability to earn crucial points by taking teams to overtime shows that they could just as easily be 16-5 as 11-10. Their gritty play could indeed make all the difference as they jockey with Edmonton for second, as Edmonton has shown less of an ability to take games into overtime and earn those crucial points. With a good but not great defense and a solid but also not spectacular offense, New Orleans has shown that they can do just enough to scrape by and keep games close. While that may not sound like the hallmark of a title contender, it is that exact reason that makes New Orleans so dangerous. This team clearly believes in itself and takes pride in a gritty style of play that takes advantage of opponents when they have lapses, and then New Orleans pounces. With four players tallying 15 or more points thus far (Nicolaj Muller, Steven Moyer, Nicholas Williams and Jimmy Slothface), New Orleans’ top line forwards have taken most of the burden on scoring on themselves, freeing up their checking line and defenseman to do what they do best, play physical position-based defense and limit opposing scoring opportunities. Even with that formula, however, or because of it, the New Orleans goalies have been underwhelming this season. With two quality netminders in Alestair Cain and Olli Saarinen, Jr., it is surprising to see how mediocre the goaltenders have played. While their statistics do not give the full picture, both Cain and Saarinen are far cries from the goaltenders they were last season. This may simply be because of a rough season where neither of them have gotten into a rhythm due to their splitting time. Indeed, the Specters has given most of the starts to the young Saarinen and thus far the Cain protégé has not fully been up to the task. That said, Saarinen has shown glimpses of greatness and with a continued effort from the Specters blue liners to limit quality chances on the young netminder, they may yet be able to be more competitive and lock down the defense.

Texas Renegades

: Further back in the hunt for second place is the intriguing Texas Renegades squad. A team formerly known as a cellar dweller, Texas has turned its franchise around and appears to be on the cusp of being a playoff contender and potential foil to the normal playoff contenders of Calgary, Edmonton and New Orleans. A true up and coming team, the Renegades are poised to play the role of the underdog, although if they continue their level of play they will not be able to use the underdog label for much longer. With 24 points from 12 wins and 8 losses, the Texas season has been one of feast or famine. With a goal differential of +5 (57 goals for and 52 goals against), the Renegades has consistently done just enough to stay ahead of their opponents. To me, this makes them all the more dangerous because it appears that Texas has the talent to play up to their opponents when need be and can find ways of winning even if they “shouldn’t”. With only three players earning 15 points or more (Josef Kubinec, Alexander Wachtner, Kaarlo Kekkonen) and their highest goal scorers tallying only 8 goals (Josef Kubinec and Andreas Kvalheim) Texas has been forced to play doggedly and scrappy in every game. That same dogged scrappiness will, in the long run, make them even more formidable offensively.

What gives me pause, however, is the Renegades defense. To this point in the season the Renegades defense has done just enough to keep the team in close fights, but will it be enough in the second half? While I do not want to be a naysayer, it is going to be difficult for the Texas blue liners to continue to eek out defensive victories. Already the Texas defensemen and goalies have shown that it will be difficult to stay on the right side of the goals for and against ratio as proven by the fact that only two Renegades defensemen have a positive +/- rating and both of them are at +1. Even so, somehow White Goodman has played reasonably well, earning a very respectable 2.47 Goals Against Average while having 624 shots against him. Unless the Renegades can find a way to clamp down on defense without impacting the offense, it will likely be only a matter of time until Goodman’s play falters and with it, the Renegades chances of vying for the second position in the conference.

Los Angeles Panthers

: Another team on the outside looking in are the Los Angeles Panthers. With 21 points coming from 10 wins, 11 losses and 1 overtime loss, Los Angeles sits 6 points behind second place, although for this team that may prove to be too far. With only 42 goals scored to this point, frankly, it is amazing that Los Angeles has made it to this point and is even still in the discussion for contending for the second spot in the Western Conference. Averaging less than 2 goals per game, the moribund Panthers offense has only two players with 15 points or more (Michael Fox and Vorian Atreides) and Fox is really the only consistent goal scoring threat, which poses a problem for Los Angeles since it is relatively easy for defenses to focus on one player with little risk of other forwards stepping up.

That lack of offensive prowess across the team has proven to be the franchises undoing on the defensive end of the ice. Unsurprisingly none of Los Angeles’ defenseman have a positive +/- rating and the only reason this is really even a discussion is because of the tremendous play of highly rated goaltender Knox Booth. While hockey is a team sport, Booth has almost single-handedly kept the Panthers defense above water, which is evident from the 864 shots he has faced (second most in the league) while somehow maintaining a 2.90 goals against average and earning two shutouts. Indeed, Knox’s play has been one of the few bright spots for an otherwise “bad” team, and if not for his play in net I honestly do not think the Los Angeles Panthers would even be in the discussion. All that said, Los Angeles is in the discussion and if they can somehow continue to do just enough to win and catch a few breaks they could play spoiler to a few teams, however unlikely that actually is.

Winnipeg Jets Jets

: The final team that appear to still be in the hunt for second in the Western Conference are the Winnipeg Jets. While Winnipeg sits one point behind Los Angeles with 20 points from 10 wins and 12 losses, I am actually fairly high on this team. Some may say, “Hey, how can you be high on Winnipeg when they are just as bad as Los Angeles? Aren’t you being biased? You’re a hack!” To that, I would just point to the goal differential that both teams have. Los Angeles may have one more point but Los Angeles’ goal differential is -22 (42 goals for and 64 goals against) while Winnipeg has a goal differential of -12 (57 goals for and 69 goals against). Yes, Winnipeg has given up five more goals than LA but they also have scored 15 more goals than Los Angeles and, in my mind, this makes Winnipeg much more of a threat to actually contend in the Western Conference. Los Angeles is in the hunt for second due to good luck, Winnipeg is in the hunt due to poor luck, but the core of the team is solid and could easily turn it around in the second half and go on a run. While the offense only has two players with 15 points or more (Goku Muerto and Nick Brain), Winnipeg has shown they are much more balanced on offense, albeit Muerto and Brain are the highest scorers by a wide margin (10 goals for each of them while the next closest players have only scored 5 goals). While the offense does live and die by the catalysts of Muerto and Brain, there is much more talent in the cupboard for Winnipeg than I think people sometimes realize, especially on defense.

Adam Barron has led the Winnipeg Jets defense this season and has proven a star in the making. A utility type skater, Barron has shown that he can contribute on both ends of the ice and is arguably one of the best young players in the league. Combine Barron’s defensive prowess with the respectable play of Strom Chamberlain and you can clearly feel that the Winnipeg defense is close to turning a corner and being more competitive. Chamberlain has managed to give up only 46 goals on 549 shots, good enough to earn a 2.44 goals against average and 2 shutouts. Indeed, while Winnipeg is on the wrong side of the goal differential game, 20 of those goals against have come against the Jets’ backup netminder Billy Sorokin earning him the ignominious recognition of being one of the worst goalies in the league with a 6.86 goals against average and only an 87.3% save percentage. This is not to damn Sorokin, but instead to point out that Winnipeg’s play when Sorokin has been in net has been atrocious and that those 20 goals against are likely an aberration when it comes to Winnipeg’s overall defensive play and ability to be competitive, especially when you take that in consideration with the goal differential. All of that is to say that Winnipeg absolutely has the chance to turn some heads in the second half of the season as it postures itself for a run to the playoffs. Indeed, I could easily foresee Winnipeg making the jump from sixth in the conference to being in the top three if they can catch a few breaks here and there. The Jets clearly are on the right track as they continue to rebuild the franchise.

And with that, we have come to the end of our analysis of teams that could potentially vie for the second position in the Western Conference and perhaps even contend with Calgary for the top spot. While there is plenty of time remaining for things to play out, it certainly looks like the race for second in the Western Conference will be a fun one to watch and that a few teams will have the opportunity to play spoiler and make a name for themselves as franchises on the rise (I’m looking at you Texas and Winnipeg).