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canes2112 · 11-21-2020, 12:34 AM

(2x SHL Entry Draft Media)

The SHL Entry Draft is a wonderful experience for all users that determines their starting point in the SHL. Most users will have some familiarity of the draft process from the SMJHL draft but the key difference for the S56 draft is now there is a season's worth of information to gauge a new user's activity level or a recreate's new direction with their player. While we anticipate the results of the S57 draft, I have decided to look back to the previous draft post one season to see how the players have progressed relative to their draft positions and compare them to the prospects of the S57 draft. Additionally, I have sent a short questionnaire to all SHL General Managers and Co-General Managers to gauge their personal opinions of the S56 draft as a whole and their team's draft performance following this season. The questionnaire contained the following questions:

1. How do you feel overall about your S56 draft class now that we are nearly one season following the draft?

2. Who do you think was the biggest steal of the draft?

3. Who appears to be the biggest reach?

4. What would you do differently, knowing what you know now?

5. Who was the one player that "got away"?

6. Where do you think this draft ranks compared to the upcoming S57 draft?

Any direct quotes from the General Managers will be anonymous to respect their privacy.

Using this spreadsheet, I have done some analysis of the past draft. I am no statistician so keep in mind that these numbers may or may not be the most accurate way to review this class. With that being said, I like charts so hopefully this somewhat supports my analysis.

Pre-Draft S56

One of the biggest stories coming into this draft was the plethora of picks the Tampa Bay Barracuda had acquired. They had 9 total picks prior to round 6 with a whopping 4 picks in the first 19 selections of the draft. Following a couple of rough seasons, this was a vital draft to revitalize the prospect pool. The other side of this coin is the Manhattan Rage who had exactly 0 picks this draft. The expectation was the Aleksander Kozlov would be the first overall pick to Tampa Bay since he is a recreate earning as much as possible with a great track record and the bank account to further cement his case. Based on the mock drafts, there was definite variance following Kozlov by nature of the strength of the top part of the class. This class is highlighted by some very successful users recreating for the draft and several full earning new users as well. One scout described this draft as 15 even players following the first overall pick. Needless to say, it would make for an interesting first round and beyond. Two teams facing difficult situations prior to the draft are the Los Angeles Panthers and San Francisco Pride. The Panthers had both General Managers step down very close to the draft, requiring an interim General Manager to complete the draft. San Francisco faced a severe cap penalty for S56 based on their punishment. Both teams also struggled in the past regular season and, armed with picks, need to make an impact.

Post Draft

Overall, 68 players were selected in this entry draft. Tampa Bay led the way by selecting 8 players, followed closely by San Francisco at 7 players picked. Manhattan did not choose to trade in to this draft so apologies to the Rage fans as the analysis will be pretty thin. The rest of the picks were spread generally as teams finished the regular season with lower standing teams with more picks than higher teams.

One Season Later

TPE values were taken as of the end of the regular season update on 10/24 so apologies for any discrepancies at the time of posting. A couple of key things to observe in this sheet are the columns labeled "TPE Rank" and "Draft Position - TPE Rank". The first is simply the player's position as if ranked by their cumulative TPE to this point. The latter represents the player's draft position in the S56 SHL Entry Draft minus their current TPE rank. This provides a rough analysis of where a player's current TPE value ranks when compared to their peers and their draft position. If a player has a positive number in this category, they would be considered doing better than their draft position whereas a negative number means their TPE rank has fallen below where they were drafted. Some disclaimers, this is purely a TPE analysis so it is only a component to a player's value. Many General Managers even mentioned they'd rather have a lower TPE player that is active in the locker room so TPE is not everything but it is the only thing able to be statistically analyzed. Another consideration is that this is still simply one season after so the TPE totals are still fairly tight. Additionally, some teams do not use all of their picks so there are some passes which increases draft position number for those lower on the draft board. In the "Draft Position - TPE Rank" column, for players taken after some teams have passed, it will skew the numbers a bit to make it seem they were lower value picks. Ultimately, this does not impact many in the draft class and will only slightly change the numbers for the later picks of the draft.

On to the actual results from the spreadsheet. The player with the highest current draft value at 88 is Xavier Doom to New Orleans; however, this is an outlier as this player is a current General Manager for the team so had he been and independent player, he would've been drafted differently. This leaves Raivo Helminen as the next highest current draft value at 34 to San Francisco. Ranked 19th overall in current TPE, he appears to have the best value based on his draft position and TPE ranking. Another great value pick was Alexis Vermette to New England. Despite being taken at 27, he is ranked 10th overall in TPE.

Now to explore some of the lower value picks. New England had one of the better value picks later in the draft and at the top of the board, Grandmaster Funk, the 5th overall pick, has a current draft value of -20. Later in the round, Vile Alfalava has the lowest current draft value of the entire draft at -33 to Los Angeles. There were some outside factors surrounding the pick to Los Angeles but relative the the class, this looks to be a high pick, solely based on TPE totals. At -29, Zbynek Dobrovsky is the next lowest current draft value going to New Orleans. This data does not mean that these players were bad picks, simply that based on TPE totals, there are players currently ranked higher. This does not consider draft day TPE rankings or external factors so don't take this as criticism to players or teams.

GM Reactions

The general managers that responded to my questions shed a little bit of light on their perspectives of how the draft unfolded. I will outline their responses to each question as it was sent to them.

1. Every single response I received showed support in their class and that overall, each person was satisfied with the results of the draft. Of course it would make sense to support their players and it is only one season following the draft but the confidence in their own team goes beyond this to the point I feel it was not simply a textbook response and the feelings were genuine.

2. There was definitely a mixed bag of responses when it came to identifying steals of the draft. One General Manager was reluctant to even try and speculate on a steal, stating, "Biggest steal is hard to say at this stage honestly. Once we start to see people passing 1K TPE and actually playing in the SHL, we will have a better idea of who's value was worth their spot in the draft better". This is absolutely a fair statement considering any number of factors could determine a player's future. For those who did take a guess, Teylora Petrov to New England with the 14th pick was identified as a steal by multiple General Managers. Regarding this particular Petrov, a General Manager had this to say, "Should've been a Top 3/5 pick in my opinion". A little further down the draft board, two other players mentioned by multiple General Managers were Logan Wong and Grape Fruit for different reasons. Logan Wong has a history of producing productive players on the site so one General Manager was shocked to see him fall so far. Grape Fruit was identified as a promising new user with potential to make a decent player relative to draft position. Other players brought up as potential steals were Bane, Mat Smith, Zebulon Levitt, Michael Withecheck, and Rikki Petrov. These players were all mentioned once.

3. Contrary to steals of the draft, reaches are also a big factor of the draft. There was less clarity from the General Managers when identifying reaches. In all fairness, this was a difficult question as it could be harsh or flat out wrong to start labeling any players reaches only a year following the draft so the pitchforks were largely sheathed for this question. Many responses reflected this sentiment; however, there was one player discussed by multiple General Managers for this question: Ville Afalava. To clarify, Afalava was not considered to be unworthy of the draft position, but there were extenuating circumstances that caused these General Managers to question whether or not Los Angeles should have picked him here based on these factors. For context, Afalava would be traded following the draft. The next player identified in this question was Zbynek Dobrovsky. One General Manager speculated, "Based on TPE it seems like Zbynek Dobrovsky could've been a reach. But then again, it was NOLA's only pick before round 5 so if they wanted Zbynek then that's where they had to take it". This idea of getting the player a team has their sights on, regardless of perceived ranking was supported by multiple General managers as well. "As long as the team is happy with their pick and took the right player for them, it's never a reach," was what another General Manager stated on the subject. Another player considered a reach was Sachimo Zoidberg III.

4. I left this question a little open ended on purpose to try and let the General Managers interpret it however they would like. The responses did not disappoint as there were multiple different areas addressed ranging from scouting before the draft to managing their picks. Despite this, the overwhelming sentiment was satisfaction with several responses saying something along the lines of not changing anything about their draft or draft process. A General Manager acknowledged that they may have not taken the optimal TPE players at their position but they identified the players they selected and took them based on other factors like locker room presence. Optimizing their scouting process was another change a General Manager would have liked to make. They felt that they were not able to connect to all of the rookies, despite starting scouting weeks in advance.

5. Established in previous questions, General Managers were highly satisfied with the results of their drafts. This question allowed General Managers to detail what would have made the day even better for their teams. Tanjiro Kamado was brought up by multiple teams as a player they thought was a good fit but was taken either before their pick or were not able to move up in the range to grab him. A player that went earlier but had similar sentiment for some other teams was Calvin Hobbes. Picked at 4th overall, it should be no surprise that a player like this would have piqued the interest of many teams but multiple teams still singled him out as a player they were particularly high on.

6. To incorporate some hype for the upcoming draft class and create a point of comparison, the General Managers were asked to compare the S56 and S57 draft classes. Some said it was too early to tell and this could be true, others favored the S56 class. One General Manager went as far to say the S56 class was significantly better while another stated the top end talent remained similar but the depth of the S56 draft was much greater. Again, this question is a difficult answer since new users can be considered more volatile than recreates by nature of being new. A recreate has a higher floor or at least an expected outcome based on previous information.

S57 Draft Outlook

As the General Managers have indicated, there is some difficulty when comparing the S56 class to the S57 class. There are some impressive prospects at the top of the draft board for S57, such as Arsene Leclerc, Jonathan Granstrom, Rude Sniff and Jon St. Ark. These four have separated themselves as the top four TPE earners in the draft so far. Leclerc and Sniff are recreates while Granstrom and St. Ark are new users looking to be selected high in the draft. Goalies are always difficult to project when it comes to draft position due to judging which teams will actually take a goalie early so St. Ark's draft spot remains in question. The first goalie taken in the S56 draft was Phillip Weaver at the 17th pick but St. Ark is ahead of where Weaver was at this point so the potential is there for a higher pick. Aleksander Kozlov was the expected first pick in this draft and Tampa Bay has the opportunity to pick first again but this time, their choice seems unclear. St. Ark is the highest earner but seems unlikely since Tampa used two picks in the S56 draft on goalies. Already with a plethora of prospects, they could go any direction. Another team to watch in the upcoming draft would be the Manhattan Rage. Only with three prospects and no picks in the last draft, they are poised to add another player at pick 13.

This draft has the potential to have a larger amount of new users in the top ten compared to S56, where there were already 5. An example of a new user from S56 that has progressed well is Jonas Kahnwald, ranking 2nd overall in current TPE from the class. Jonathan Granstrom has a chance to become that player for the S57 class, based on his ranking of his peers currently. He should be selected earlier rather than later in the upcoming draft. Looking back on the SMJHL draft for these players, not too much has changed as far as rankings go. Granstrom, St. Ark and Leclerc were all drafted in the top 6 with Leclerc going first overall so it should be no surprise they are still ranked highly. Ultimately, the General Managers must weigh the pros and cons of drafting a new user or recreate and a higher TPE player or better locker room fit and this draft is shaping up to be an interesting one.

Conclusions

First, I'd like to thank the SHL General Managers who kindly took the time to respond to my message as their insight was incredibly valuable. To start, I will compare the graphical findings with some of the General Managers opinions on steals of the draft. General Managers though Teylora Petrov was a steal and according to the current draft value, that sure seems like an accurate assessment with Petrov sitting 4th overall in current TPE. Mentioned by General Managers as potential steals but in different situations are Grape Fruit and Logan Wong. Grape Fruit has a current draft value of exactly 0, meaning that he was selected right where he is ranked perhaps indicating that while not a bad pick, he has not risen above expectations. Logan Wong sits at a -15 current draft value. This would contradict the General Managers who listed Wong as a potential steal. Regarding draft steals, that was the biggest disagreement between the General Managers and the stats. All other players listed either sat at 0 or above current draft value, supporting the majority of the recognition for that question.

Perhaps the most aligned opinion between the General Managers and the stats would be Afalava being a reach to Los Angeles. Again, due to circumstances beyond the scope of statistical analysis, I won't dive too deep. Zybnek Dobrovsky's draft status also finds agreement between the General Manager's opinion of a possible reach and current draft value of -29. Sachimo Zoidberg III currently defies the status of reach and even has an argument for steal status sitting at 3rd overall in the class despite being selected at 13 overall to Calgary.

S57 has the top end talent to compete with the S56 draft, the main difference will be if the depth can match up equally. With fewer recreates, the deciding factor will be on late round pickups of new users to hopefully start their first player effectively. As with any pre-draft analysis, we may end up looking back on our predictions and feeling silly for not anticipating certain outcomes.

In closing, I'd like to reiterate the limitations of the spreadsheet's analysis to strictly TPE totals for S56 and it is not meant to undermine any player's draft position or a General Manager's decision. Pretty much all of the General Managers told me that this experience is about having fun, supported by several statements on the order of taking a player with lower TPE if it means adding the person they want to the locker room. At the end of the day, we are all here to have fun so I wish all the members of the S56 class the best of luck in their careers as well as the prospects in the upcoming S57 SHL draft!

***sve7en*** · 11-21-2020, 12:40 AM

That's my god damn Groot

***FuzzSHL*** · 11-21-2020, 12:48 AM

Very interesting and in depth article. Love it

Aleksi Kettu

***bluesfan55*** · 11-21-2020, 12:48 AM

my main man krazko
dude could probably fit into any locker room which is a testament to how nice of a guy he is

ty to @High Stick King @EvilAllBran and @Ragnar for the sigs

Wasty · 11-21-2020, 03:20 AM

No need to update during a season when I was 9 TPE away from the cap, now that I'm updated to the next cap level, I'm at 453 TPE

#40 Niclas Wastlund - W - VANCOUVER WHALERS Whalers

/ MINNESOTA MONARCHS

canes2112 · 11-21-2020, 10:55 AM

11-21-2020, 03:20 AMWasty Wrote: No need to update during a season when I was 9 TPE away from the cap, now that I'm updated to the next cap level, I'm at 453 TPE

Makes sense. If I do something like this in the future I'll get my timings better. This is the unfortunate effect of just a snapshot only a year out.

Wasty · 11-21-2020, 02:52 PM

11-21-2020, 10:55 AMcanes2112 Wrote:
11-21-2020, 03:20 AMWasty Wrote: No need to update during a season when I was 9 TPE away from the cap, now that I'm updated to the next cap level, I'm at 453 TPE

Makes sense. If I do something like this in the future I'll get my timings better. This is the unfortunate effect of just a snapshot only a year out.

No worries, I don't put much into rankings mainly because of that but you did a great job and good research. At the time I was that tpe so there was nothing but the facts at the time. Just finally changed to get with the times.

#40 Niclas Wastlund - W - VANCOUVER WHALERS Whalers

/ MINNESOTA MONARCHS

Sopath · 11-22-2020, 03:02 AM

Just wanted a place where I could use the New England emote. Wolfpack

Henrik · 11-22-2020, 05:55 AM

Oh man, I completely forgot about your questionnaire! Sorry bud.

This is a great article, well done! Really enjoyed the read.

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