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Rancidbudgie · 10-27-2020, 03:16 PM

IIHF Expansion: Nations to Start Looking Out For

Word count: 3395

Hello everyone! In this article, I wanted to explore the feasibility of an IIHF expansion in the SHL, and what nationalities that don’t have IIHF teams are best represented within the SHL community currently!

This article is mostly theorycrafting, but I thought it would be interesting to open up the conversation once again, and look at what would make the most desirable locations for the SHL IIHF to expand to.

IIHF expansion is something that happens rarely, if ever. Early on in the site’s history, 12 teams were ironed out, and the World Championships (or Olympics, depending on the era) stayed with those four teams until S46, when the SHL approved expansion for two teams, Switzerland

and Japan

. This expansion holds a dear spot in my heart, as not even two months earlier I had created a Swiss-born defenseman for my second player, Basil Magnicotta, who was on the inaugural IIHF team and up until his retirement in S54.

Before the S56 SHL Expansion was announced, @luketd posted this interesting article:
https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=107199
It was used to justify that we had the amount of active members to warrant an expansion from 16 SHL teams to 18, and eventually this turned out to be prophetic. Rumors of expansion had been swirling, and the SMJHL was expanded the season previously, but the point I want to highlight from Luke’s article are his statistics regarding unique active users.

Even being almost two seasons old, the numbers are still quite telling:

Quote:AC#318: 339
AC#317: 348
AC#316: 356
AC#315: 346
AC#314: 305

So this is the past 5 Activity Checks we have seen an increase in users for the S55 draft, which is a good draft class before a reddit draft class. So now this is the first time we have reached over 350 Replies to an activity check.

So from that, we have 393 Unique replies to that Activity check, so the # of replies to that AC where it has people reply to all 5, 4,3,2, and 1 are
#of replies to the 5 AC - #of replies
5 259
4 49
3 33
2 28
1 24

So the # from 393 Unique Replies these past 5 to the S46 expansion, it is 61 new replies than the last expansion draft. From this we also have better statistics since I can pull data from all the members and see more.

For PT’s specifically, we are seeing responses to normal PT’s like PT1,2,3,etc be at their all time high, getting 200+ replies, and things like Award and Season predictions into the high 200’s and early 300’s. This season the predictions were 324 and 321 respectively. For the SMJHL as well this season there are 30-40 replies for each PT, which helps show that this draft is a lot more active and a stronger non reddit draft than some.

For example in the S46 SHL PT’s were getting anywhere from 150-175 replies, so more users are doing PT’s, where the season predictions got into the high 200’s. The reason why the predictions remain the same from the SHL highest peak before now, and to today, is because its the easiest to do, but then it also is a good indicator of user activity.

For S25 there really isn't this from what I can find. The highest number I can find is the S25 mock draft claims thread, in which 161 people participated. So we can compare that to the S46 mock claim(200), and the latest Mock Claim (S45: 232), but it isn't really a fair indicator of that.

So this time around I have more numbers to play with, but with 61 new unique users doing activity checks, than 10 seasons ago, approaching a reddit draft, it is looking very promising that another expansion is possible to go along with the SMJHL one as well. If you look at it, the Juniors is stocked to the brim from S53, S54 and now S55, so the expansion on both ends will solve that issue. One it will allow more teams to have space for people, as well as the expansion in the SHL means teams will have to call up their draftees, or their draftees getting taken in the expansion draft, and therefore get called up on that end.

With the new season’s active users already in from S56, S57, and even S58, it is likely the unique users count has gone up from 393 to breach 400 active site members.

So, let’s map that out with the roster spots 14 IIHF teams can allot.

IIHF is different from expansion in that teams usually utilize 4 forward lines, whereas the SHL incentivizes 3 for maximum user engagement. So, there are 3 more slots than usual, for a total roster of 20 (12 forwards, 6 defense, 2 goalies).

The simple answer: around 400 active users being divided by 20 = a potential 20 IIHF teams we could have.
However, this is unrealistic, for a few reasons:
- The number might skew a bit up or down, and leave teams with fewer than 20 roster players
- Positional needs aren’t accounted for.
And most importantly:
- Players should be able to choose their IIHF team, and there are some who will choose their home country/favorite country no matter how many/few players there are.

So, we want a healthy amount of players per team, and have some turnover. The system should incentivize getting to at least a certain TPE level before being a good option for senior-level IIHF play.

So, what if we simply added two teams and went to 16 nations? It might make tournament scheduling much easier on the FHM6 system, and that alone could be a huge plus. With over 400 active players (not even acconting for inactives that can be used as a backup goalie/12th forward in a pinch), that leaves 25 active players per federation.

This is certainly doable, but a little on the unforgiving side. Transfers are definitely a thing, but expecting it to split into 16 neat groups of 25 or somewhere close is... optimistic, to say the least. There should be at least 450 consistently active members, if not higher, before another IIHF expansion should be considered, especially with 4th lines being a common practice in the IIHF.

But to the next point of my article… where could that expansion be? What would be the best 2 options? I want to try and formulate what would be the best options in a semi-empirical manner (i.e. making up a fun bullshit formula that quantifies something that ought not to be quantified).

So without further ado - the IIHF Nation Desirability Score!

This is a method of ascertaining where the IIHF should expand to next, if it gets to that point. The overall score in out of 30, where points in three categories are given a score from 1-10 and then added together for an overall score. I took the top 10 desirable nations (the criteria being they needed to be a member of the IRL IIHF, and that they needed at least one user from the S50 draft or earlier to have listed that nation as their player's birth country) I then give a comparative bell-curve score of 1-10: If you score the highest out of all the other considered nations, they get a 10/10 for that category. If they are the lowest, 1/10). then the three categories are added together to produce a total score out of 30.

Category one is Member Interest (MI). Arguably the most important one, it is simply a reflection on where users want their players to be from, or a nation they would like to suit up for. This is really gauged somewhat subjectively, as the best way of ascertaining this is by seeing where players are born, when a member creates a new player. The benefit of unlimited unassigned transfers is that members can make a player from anywhere in the world (or beyond it) that isn;t one of the existing IIHF Nations, and then transfer where you were going to play anyways later. Simply put, the more players I see born in a given non-IIHF country, the better the MI score.

Category two is Ice Hockey Realism (IHR). Simply put, we want nations that at least have a hockey program. The more “Meme Teams” aside (*cough* IRELAND *coughcoughcough*), the IIHF nations largely reflect nations that have IRL hockey programs, and are more likely to have users of the SHL actually live there/hail from there. So despite maybe scoring high on other categories, places like Micronesia, Uganda, Antarctica, or the Land of Gumba might fall a bit flat on the IHR scale.

The third and final category is Linguistic Variety (LV). It’s exciting to build a player that comes from a more unique cultural or ethnic background, and certain names or language groups for players overlap with existing teams. For example, we already have THREE nations that would be likely destinations for a new player who wants a Germanic-sounding name (Germany, Austria, and Switzerland). So adding somewhere like Lichtenstien to that list just splits those players further, in my opinion. This category is where a nation like Japan would thrive (were they not already an IIHF nation), as they were the first East Asian team in the IIHF, and culturally had many members interested in making a Japanese player with names (or cultural references like Ryu Hyabusa or Light Yagami) that were a refreshing step removed from more Euro-centric names. This category does play into realism a bit, as there are some players that really push for authenticity having their players sound linguistically correct to the country they hail from (I am guilty here, looking up the traditional Romanian spelling of Nicolae for my player before creating). How cool would it be to have a team like Venezuela, which would become a rational cultural and linguistic choice for all Central-and-South American players to transfer to? The LV category is here to support more unique teams that make it feel like more of a WORLD Championship, and give more creative users a place to aim for nationally/linguistically.

I have taken 10 of the highest-scoring nations not already in the IIHF, and given their scores a 1 for being the lowest of the 10 in a given category, and a 10 out of 10 if they are the highest. So let’s have a look at some of the options, in no particular order!

Poland:
Member Interest (MI): 9/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 6/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 8/10

One of the stronger cases on this list at first glance, however I do have a slight addendum to make note of. Poland ended up with the 2nd highest number of creates thanks to the seven(!) Franciszek siblings - anyone remember that? Still, there are almost always at least one or two Poles in the SMJHL/SHL at any given time, and it is not a recent thing - one of the more frequent locations to consistently pop up throughout SHL history is Poland. What also nets them points is that many users who make a Polish player seem to really enjoy getting into the name (and some try to make it as unpronounceable as possible). The Polish language’s use of Z’s, C’s, S’s and Y’s is well-known, and leads to a fun player flavour that site members have enjoyed for a consistent time. Poland, while not known as a hockey powerhouse, contributed some good NHL players in the 90’s like Marius Czerhawski, Krystof Oliwa and Peter Siedorkiewicz, and is consistently in the 1st division of the IIHF World Championships. Overall, a very strong contender.

France:
Member Interest (MI): 5/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 9/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 6/10

After talking to @Nictox about this one in the Scarecrows LR, he actually inspired the idea to write this article. While he would love to have a French team, and with two stud defensive prospects hailing from France this draft (@DrunkenTeddy ‘s Luc Blouin and Nictox’s French skater), the constant French presence around the league has started to increase. A strong contender internationally now, France is one of the three teams on this list that competes in the IIHF Championship Division, the top level of the World Championships, so gets top marks there. Linguistically, they are in the middle of the pack, as Francophone names could just as easily be from Quebec, and even partially Switzerland. This could be flipped though, and France could be a prime transfer destination for French-Canadians left on the outside looking in for the stacked team Canada. Overall, a solid candidate for future expansion.

Mexico:
Member Interest (MI): 2/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 1/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 10/10

So Mexico doesn’t make the cut for its IHR, as Mexico is well known for not being a hockey hotbed, languishing in Division III with teams like Iceland, South Africa, Turkey, and Israel. Member interest is constant, but usually there is only one or two active players present at any given time (currently QCC winger Tres Sombreros holding the mantle). What the main selling point of a Mexican IIHF team is lies in the linguistic market. If Mexico is chosen, that nation becomes a beacon for players from all across Central and South America. While there are only a couple of players from Mexico at any given point, you can almost always mix in a few more from other Latin American Countries, like the Dominican Republic’s Stan Q. Next, or Cuba’s Oscar Cordero. There is no IIHF nation that linguistically links to any of these players/names, and Mexico would be the most solid choice for that. Overall a bit more of a tough sell, but I think Mexico would definitely be a “if you build it they will come” scenario.

The Netherlands:
Member Interest (MI): 7/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 5/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 5/10

The Dutch make a surprisingly strong showing in the player department, with 5 players from S50 onwards being created with the Netherlands as their birthplace. Not only that, but many of them are recreates with solid and active players, like star SMJHL goaltender Cale Amundsen, defensive dynamo Erben Kasius, and @bluesfan55 himself, Mitchell van der Heijden, who has been vocal before about getting the Dutch Oranje in IIHF flavour. Already an IIHF head for Switzerland, I imagine this wouldn’t be a difficult sell to find a user willing to Holland things up as Fed head. The Netherlands are pretty solid in the other two categories, but not excellent. The only NHL player from this century that hails from the Netherlands is Daniel Sprong, the Dutch are usually in Division II of the World Championships, and while Dutch names are quite different linguistically in some regards, you only have to replace the “Vans” for “Vons” and chop off a “de” or “der”, and you’ve got yet another Western European nation with common names close to that of the German-speaking IIHF nations. Overall, a very solid pick, mainly led by the strong user interest.

Iceland:
Member Interest (MI): 4/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 2/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 3/10

Scoring a bit lower on the scale, Iceland likely isn’t the strongest choice right off the bat. It’s main strength is the MI index, as there are always at least two native Icelanders active in the SHL, and with 3 very active prospects in Xavier Doom, Halldor Ragnarsson, and Gudmundur Kristjansson, Iceland has quality as well as some quantity. Where it falls short is on two major things: They are one of the few teams on this list not even in Division II of the World Championships, often found in Division III (I guess the fact that team Iceland are the antagonists in the Mighty Ducks II movie gives them some clout here). Also, while they are unique, Icelandic names are usually in the Scandanavian, Viking-esque wheelhouse, territory already claimed by Norway and Sweden, so linguistic variety falls a bit short. While one of the higher-ranked options overall and making it to the top 10, Iceland doesn’t quite have the full push for IIHF consideration.

Italy:
Member Interest (MI): 10/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 8/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 7/10

My strongest case for IIHF expansion may go to Italy. Since the S50 draft, a whopping 12 players have created a skater born in Italia, and with the likes of young active players like Luca del Vecchio, White Goodman, Niccolo Livius, Anna Pontecorvo, Pablo Salvatici, Sonata Diamante, Tanjiro Kamado, Domenic Alessandrini, and more, if the IIHF expanded tomorrow, Italy could potentially have a pretty damn good core, especially the two goalies. As the guy who wrote an article on Switzerland’s initial core back during the repatriation draft of S46, I can confidently say an Italian team would be way better off. Combine that with the fact that only Denmark and France are higher ranked than Italy when it comes to non-IIHF nations for the SHL, and that users have already been creating truly Italian-sounding players for a long time, I’m comfortable saying that if the IIHF does eventually expand in the near future, one of the two teams should almost certainly be Italy.

China:
Member Interest (MI): 1/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 3/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 9/10

Okay, so there’s only one Chinese player from the S50’s onward, and only about 5 Chinese players created in the history of the SHL, so they take last place out of the 10 teams listed here. But the one active player, Name Redacted, is a stud in net, and opening up the hockey market of China is good business, even if they are Division II caliber at best right now. The biggest strength here is that China gives a unique cultural opportunity for new player creates. While it is a fair argument that many who create an Asian player will likely make one from Japan, China is another giant market with a very unique linguistic opportunity for the SHL. Overall, probably not the best choice, but one that would be great for sponsorship! All we’d have to do in censor any mention of Tiananmen Square 1989 [Redacted]!

Denmark:
Member Interest (MI): 8/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 10/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 4/10

Another intriguing option from Western Europe, Denmark is not only the highest-ranked IIHF nation not represented at the SHL international level, but there is a solid number of users with active Danish players. Most notable right now is starting goaltender for the Manhattan Rage, Peter Larson, but there are also good young actives as well: Frans Eller, Elias Kierkegaard and Mikkel Asmus Sondergard, to name a few from the S50’s classes. The only knock against Denmark is that they fall a little short linguistically. Please don’t hate me for saying this Swedes, but Danish is very similar to your language. Basically replace the “o” in the “son” at the end of a Swedish name with an “e”, and congratulations! You’ve got a Danish name. There’s a bit more variety to it than that, but overall Denmark would complete the Scandanavian set if it were to step into IIHF territory, and that might be spreading things a little thin between Sweden, Norway, and Finland.

Australia:
Member Interest (MI): 3/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 4/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 1/10

Crikey, I thought this score would be higher. The Thunder from Down Under would geographically be a unique addition to the IIHF, but… that’s pretty much it.
There is usually one top cunt around at any given time, but for the S50’s all we have is Ziggy Tambo and Alec Sullivan. Also, Australia scores last on the linguistic variety scale, as most names there could also be popular names in any english-speaking country, namely those found in the IIHF nations of Canada, the United States, Ireland, and Great Britain. Unless you go full Crocodile Dundee and name the guy Bruce “Didgeridoo” Wallabyfucker, you aren’t really getting a unique naming demographic if you add the Oceanic country. At least you guys have top NHL cunt Nathan Walker (who was trained in Australia, but born in Wales, mind you).

Ukraine:
Member Interest (MI): 6/10
Ice Hockey Realism (IHR): 7/10
Linguistic Variety (VR): 2/10

Okay, when doing my initial rankings… this one actually surprised me. Yes, Ukraine is decently competitive. They used to be in the Championship Division now and then, and recently have been found most of the time in Division I, better than many. They have produced many NHL stars and players, like Nikolai Zherdev (and most recently for the Maple Leafs, Dmytro Timashov). But the amount of active players from the S50’s that have Ukraine set as their birth place caught me off guard, with Ruslan Zaprozhets, Jasper Maximov, and Mats Marner being some noteworthy examples. Once again, the main knock in linguistic variety. Many people who have created as Ukrainians (and while not as plentiful, I’ll lump the Kazakhstani, Lithuanian, Estonian, and Belarussian players in here as well), likely wanted a Slavic or Russian-sounding name without declaring for the Russian national team for IIHF. Ukranian names, while having their notable differences, are just too linguistically similar to that of Russia to score higher than a 2 here. Overall, a surprisingly solid choice that only falls short on 1 category.

Overall Scores:
So, the overall scores/rankings look like this:

1.Italy, with 25/30 points
2.Poland, with 23/30 points
3.Denmark, with 22/30 points
4.France, with 20/30 points
5.The Netherlands, with 17/20 points
6.Ukraine, with 15/30 points
7.China, with 15/30 points
8.Mexico, with 13/30 points
9.Iceland, with 9/30 points
10.Australia, with 8/30 points

I’d estimate that any team with 20 or more points has a very solid case for being considered for an IIHF expansion when it rolls around, and I personally agree with my results that Italy and Poland are the top two teams for that consideration, with Denmark and France both having good arguments to replace Poland for that 2nd spot.

I hope this was an interesting read, and want to leave off with a question: When do you think the IIHF should expand next, and how many active members does the site need to support 16 teams? If it does expand in the seasons to come, which nations should be added? Which ones would you be excited to see?

Thanks for reading!

Thank you to Ham and Sulo for the sigs!

Duff101 · 10-27-2020, 03:33 PM

PUT IN KAZAKHSTAN

Credit to Geck, Ragnar and Juni for sigs

***Chevy*** · 10-27-2020, 03:42 PM

10-27-2020, 03:33 PMDuff101 Wrote: PUT IN KAZAKHSTAN

Rancidbudgie · 10-27-2020, 04:18 PM

10-27-2020, 03:33 PMDuff101 Wrote: PUT IN KAZAKHSTAN

I actually thought Kazakhstan would score much higher, and would be a player favourite! However, I was surprised to see they don't have a single player from S50 or earlier to list the nation as their birthplace besides you, and they also suffer the same linguistic variety struggles as Ukraine, so they scored lower than Australia overall.

Thank you to Ham and Sulo for the sigs!

**RomanesEuntDomus** · 10-27-2020, 06:22 PM

This was a great read, very nice article!

Duff101 · 10-27-2020, 07:01 PM

10-27-2020, 04:18 PMRancidbudgie Wrote:
10-27-2020, 03:33 PMDuff101 Wrote: PUT IN KAZAKHSTAN

I actually thought Kazakhstan would score much higher, and would be a player favourite! However, I was surprised to see they don't have a single player from S50 or earlier to list the nation as their birthplace besides you, and they also suffer the same linguistic variety struggles as Ukraine, so they scored lower than Australia overall.

Yeah, it's kind of an obscure country, though the return of Borat to cultural relevance might increase that. For the record though Kazakh and Russian are very different languages.

Credit to Geck, Ragnar and Juni for sigs