Hopefully you’ve had some time to cool off from that hot, hot draft last Saturday night. At a glance, it looks like there were a lot of great picks, but we all know mistakes can be made in the heat of the moment. Now that the smoke has settled, we can step back and take a look at what transpired. And to do that, we’ll use the best tool at our disposal: STATISTICS!

Last season, the team here at Fred’s Fantastically Mediocre Analytics News did a pre-draft analysis and mock draft based on the BMI, or Body Mass Index, of the draftees. To the surprise of some (not us, obviously), the mock draft was excellent and nearly correct. You can see that previous article here: https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=110027.

This draft, we used the same techniques to analyze and grade the top draft picks for the Simulation Hockey League Season 57 Draft. I hope you are wearing your learning socks because you’re going to need them as we travel through the carpeted halls of information until you reach the kitchen of data. And in that kitchen of data, you’ll open the fridge of opportunity where you will find, on the second from the bottom shelf, a nice cold bottle of knowledge. Come with us. Drink the knowledge.

Before we get on to the grading, let us first take a look at this draft class. Just as last time, we will use this table for our data on Body Mass Index: https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1060/9...1562264541.

As we can see in Figure 1, a large portion (71.4 percent) of the draft class are considered Overweight. The majority of the remaining players are what would be considered “Normal” by BMI standards. The three leftover players are Underweight, Obese, and Extemely Obese, respectively.

At first glance, the data seems to make sense. A good distribution of larger players without being so large as to be labeled as “obese”. But how does this compare to previous draft classes? Figure 2 displays the distribution of BMI across the last draft class of season 56. In this chart we can see that the percentage of overweight players in season 56’s draft class (76.7 percent) is very similar to that of season 57’s draft class. Where it differs slightly, though, is in the distribution of Normal and Obese BMI. The percentage of players in season 56 draft class is about 4% higher than that of season 57 for Obese players and the percentage of Normal players is about 7% less.

We can also look at a slightly older draft class, just to get an even better idea for comparison. Figure 3 shows the draft class of season 53. Here we can see that distribution is far more uneven that the other classes we’ve seen.

The amount of Overweight players far exceeds the amounts from the other two draft classes. The season 53 draft class has nearly as many Obese players as it has Regular players. As a side note, Season 53 draft class contains a player with one of the highest BMI’s the league has seen at 41.5. A player from season 57’s draft class comes close with 40.7, but not close enough.

So now that you’ve got a little taste of information, let’s start the next section of this wonderful article: Grading the draft picks.

In our article from the last draft, we established some ground rules for making picks based on the statistical analysis we did for that draft. We will use those same rules to aid with our grading in this post draft analysis.

1. As far as long time earners go, Normal BMI and Overweight BMI, in that order, seem to be the best. We learned this from looking at S47 Average TPE
   
2. For short run earners, Obese and Overweight players are the best choices. We learned this from looking at S53
   
3. Extremely Obese players are likely to be elite players in the mid run, but they might not last as long as some other BMI types
   
4. Underweight players under perform
   
5. If you want a safe bet, go for the Normal players. They might end up earning a lot of TPE, but worst case scenario they end up being average
   

So, without further ado, let’s take a look at those draft picks.

Team: New England Wolfpack

Name: Jonathan Granström @Halkohol

BMI: 29.12 - Overweight

We think that this is a great first pick to take. As our research from looking at older players from S47 and younger players from S53 shows, Overweight players have a higher chance of being great short term and long term earners. Jonathan Granström is a  t h i c c  boy and that’s just the way we like it here at FFMAN.

Team: Minnesota Monarchs

Name: Arsene Leclerc @spooked

BMI: 24.14 - Normal

We here at FFMAN admit that we don’t know much about the Minnesota Monarchs, nor do we know much about what that team needs right now or in the future, but we do know a thing or two about BMI. It seems like the Monarchs took the safe route (see rule number 5) which is not something we would have expected from the 2nd overall pick.

Team: Los Angeles Panthers

Name: Sean Gatez @SewingWithNancy

BMI: 26.78 - Overweight

Sean Gatez sits right in the middle of the Overweight part of the reference BMI chart. In the past, we have seen middle of the road Overweight players do very well both short term and in the long run. While we think there were better (thicker) options for the Panthers at 3rd overall pick, we concede that this was a good choice.

Team: New Orleans Specters

Name: Vlastislav Malik  @leafs1997

BMI: 26.92 - Overweight

Another middle of the road Overweight player, Vlastislav Malik comes in at 6’5” and 227 lbs. A true giant of a man, we feel this player has a bright future and our studies have the data to back up our claims. Quite frankly, we think this goliath should’ve been picked either first or second and are surprised they went 4th.

Team: Winnipeg Jets

Name: Dwayne Gretzky @3lewsers

BMI: 27.60 - Overweight

The Great Wayne Gretzky had a BMI of 25.5 in his prime, which falls right in the Overweight section of the chart. If Dwayne Gretzky’s name isn’t a dead giveaway as to how well they will perform in the SHL, then you can at least look to our expert’s analysis. Our first rule is all you need to look at to understand our grade for this pick.

Team: Winnipeg Jets

Name: Freyja Hellstrom @Calliope

BMI: 24.36 - Normal

The 6th overall pick went to one Freyja Hellstrom. This player is 5’8” and weighs 165 pounds, which puts them on the smaller end of the players in this draft class. As one of the 13 Normal weight players, we are surprised to see them up so high. Perhaps the Jets know something we do not? After all, some of the best players the SHL has ever seen have been classified as Normal weight. But then again, the majority of Normal weight players fall into obscurity after perfectly mediocre careers.

Team: San Francisco Pride

Name: Ruggs McOooh @Ruggsy

BMI: 26.52 - Overweight

Ruggs McOooh’s BMI has all of us here at FFMAN saying “McOoooooh”. Solid choice.

Team: Los Angeles Panthers

Name: Jari Heikkinen @Allegiant

BMI: 27.26 - Overweight

Another  t h i c c  choice made by the Panthers. With their strategy seemingly to be that of stocking up on Overweight players, we think they are going to be a force to reckon with in the coming years.

Team: New England Wolfpack

Name: Brennan Huff @Jayrome

BMI: 27.12 - Overweight

The 9th overall pick fell on the New England Wolfpack and they chose Brennan Huff. Now, we have done nothing but decent grades for all the picks so far, so I think I am going to have to give this pick a bad grade. I am sorry Brennan Huff. Statistically you seem like a great pick, but I have to do what I have to do. Sorry.

Team: New Orleans Specters

Name: Jon St. Ark @Arkz

BMI: 24.39 - Normal

Rounding the top 10 draft picks of this here 57th season’s entry draft we have the wonderful Jon St. Ark. St. Ark is another one of the rare Normal weight players to come out of this draft class. Like I explained earlier, Normal players can either rise to be the best of their class or they can be the average-st of average. Because we like the name Jon St. Ark, I think we’ll choose to believe that they will rise to be one of the best.

And there you have it, folks! I would have loved to do more than just the top ten picks, but I forgot how time consuming it is to do all of this very real and very professional statistical analysis followed by top tier article writing. I hope to have more fun stuff you you to read soon!

[Double Draft Media]

[1561 words]

[Graphs made by me]
[Scripts for collecting and refining data made by me and can be found here: https://github.com/MediocreFred/shlscrap.../scrape.py and https://github.com/MediocreFred/shlscrap...culator.py]