11-26-2020, 09:29 PM(This post was last modified: 11-26-2020, 09:32 PM by RomanesEuntDomus.)
As a member of the Awards Committee and a teammate of Booth I don't actually mind this thread. It is an interesting discussion to have imho and was presented in a respectful way, of all the "I'm mad that my friend/teammate didn't win" posts this is definitely one of the better ones. After all, there have been quite some discussions about the different kinds of goalie stats recently which makes the overall questions presented in here pretty valid. Add in the fact that we are still just a few seasons into the change to FHM and we have a situation that is still very much in flux when it comes to how we wanna rate player performances.
Overall, I think Booth was a very deserved winner here. If you have followed LA in any way this past season then it will have become obvious to you how much he carried that team at times, much more so than the other nominees did. Some might argue that this might be an argument for MVP but not for best in his position but I disagree. The very fact that he was able to put a team on his back like that was what made him the best at his position. And yes this might be a bit of a paradigm shift compared to the past were Ws and GAA were valued more than they were this time around - it's gonna be interesting to see if this was just a one time thing or remains the new standard from now on. From my perspectíve however it has become clear that GAA and W's are just such team-dependent stats in FHM that they lost a lot of their value when it comes to judging individual goalie performance.
If you sort goalie stats by GAA then you will find that the the top-3 goalies in that category are also on the top-3 teams in the standings and the trend continues if you go further down the list. There is also a pretty stable trend in that same GAA-sorted list when you look into the Save-Percentage column, the goalies with the best GAAs, in other words those on the strongest teams, also have the best save-percentages, then those percentages slowly drop the further down the standings you go... until you get to Booth who blows everyone else around him out of the water again. SOs tell a similar story, there are a bunch of goalies with 7 or more Shutouts, all on teams that comfortably made the playoffs, whereas only one goalie from the bottom-half of the standings has more than 3.
All those stats pretty clearly point towards the direction that goalie stats like Ws, GAA and SOs are directly correlated with team success. Now the big question is in which direction that correlation works, do goalies benefit from being on strong teams, or are those goalies the reason that their teams are so good in the first place? And no offense to the players in question, but given how many relatively low-TPE goalies we have seen perform very well on stacked teams in recent seasons, I have a pretty strong instinct on how I would answer that question at the moment. Add in the fact that Booth faced the second most shots in the entire league yet had much a much higher Save-% and a much lower GAA than all the other goalies who faced similar amounts of shots, actually rivaling the best of the best in the league in terms of save-percentage, and you have the best goalie of the season in my opinion. Simply put, I would argue that Save-Percentage is not the only, but the best singular indicator we have of a goalies individual performance. Vilde, Booth and Jobin have virtually the same save-percentage but, as I hope I have shown through the stats above, putting up that kind of save-oercentage on a below average team is simply more impressive than doing so on the top-two teams in the league.
11-26-2020, 09:29 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: As a member of the Awards Committee and a teammate of Booth I don't actually mind this thread. It is an interesting discussion to have imho and was presented in a respectful way, of all the "I'm mad that my friend/teammate didn't win" posts this is definitely one of the better ones. After all, there have been quite some discussions about the different kinds of goalie stats recently which makes the overall questions presented in here pretty valid. Add in the fact that we are still just a few seasons into the change to FHM and we have a situation that is still very much in flux when it comes to how we wanna rate player performances.
Overall, I think Booth was a very deserved winner here. If you have followed LA in any way this past season then it will have become obvious to you how much he carried that team at times, much more so than the other nominees did. Some might argue that this might be an argument for MVP but not for best in his position but I disagree. The very fact that he was able to put a team on his back like that was what made him the best at his position. And yes this might be a bit of a paradigm shift compared to the past were Ws and GAA were valued more than they were this time around - it's gonna be interesting to see if this was just a one time thing or remains the new standard from now on. From my perspectíve however it has become clear that GAA and W's are just such team-dependent stats in FHM that they lost a lot of their value when it comes to judging individual goalie performance.
If you sort goalie stats by GAA then you will find that the the top-3 goalies in that category are also on the top-3 teams in the standings and the trend continues if you go further down the list. There is also a pretty stable trend in that same GAA-sorted list when you look into the Save-Percentage column, the goalies with the best GAAs, in other words those on the strongest teams, also have the best save-percentages, then those percentages slowly drop the further down the standings you go... until you get to Booth who blows everyone else around him out of the water again. SOs tell a similar story, there are a bunch of goalies with 7 or more Shutouts, all on teams that comfortably made the playoffs, whereas only one goalie from the bottom-half of the standings has more than 3.
All those stats pretty clearly point towards the direction that goalie stats like Ws, GAA and SOs are directly correlated with team success. Now the big question is in which direction that correlation works, do goalies benefit from being on strong teams, or are those goalies the reason that their teams are so good in the first place? And no offense to the players in question, but given how many relatively low-TPE goalies we have seen perform very well on stacked teams in recent seasons, I have a pretty strong instinct on how I would answer that question at the moment. Add in the fact that Booth faced the second most shots in the entire league yet had much a much higher Save-% and a much lower GAA than all the other goalies who faced similar amounts of shots, actually rivaling the best of the best in the league in terms of save-percentage, and you have the best goalie of the season in my opinion. Simply put, I would argue that Save-Percentage is not the only, but the best singular indicator we have of a goalies individual performance. Vilde, Booth and Jobin have virtually the same save-percentage but, as I hope I have shown through the stats above, putting up that kind of save-oercentage on a below average team is simply more impressive than doing so on the top-two teams in the league.
11-26-2020, 09:29 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: As a member of the Awards Committee and a teammate of Booth I don't actually mind this thread. It is an interesting discussion to have imho and was presented in a respectful way, of all the "I'm mad that my friend/teammate didn't win" posts this is definitely one of the better ones. After all, there have been quite some discussions about the different kinds of goalie stats recently which makes the overall questions presented in here pretty valid. Add in the fact that we are still just a few seasons into the change to FHM and we have a situation that is still very much in flux when it comes to how we wanna rate player performances.
Overall, I think Booth was a very deserved winner here. If you have followed LA in any way this past season then it will have become obvious to you how much he carried that team at times, much more so than the other nominees did. Some might argue that this might be an argument for MVP but not for best in his position but I disagree. The very fact that he was able to put a team on his back like that was what made him the best at his position. And yes this might be a bit of a paradigm shift compared to the past were Ws and GAA were valued more than they were this time around - it's gonna be interesting to see if this was just a one time thing or remains the new standard from now on. From my perspectíve however it has become clear that GAA and W's are just such team-dependent stats in FHM that they lost a lot of their value when it comes to judging individual goalie performance.
If you sort goalie stats by GAA then you will find that the the top-3 goalies in that category are also on the top-3 teams in the standings and the trend continues if you go further down the list. There is also a pretty stable trend in that same GAA-sorted list when you look into the Save-Percentage column, the goalies with the best GAAs, in other words those on the strongest teams, also have the best save-percentages, then those percentages slowly drop the further down the standings you go... until you get to Booth who blows everyone else around him out of the water again. SOs tell a similar story, there are a bunch of goalies with 7 or more Shutouts, all on teams that comfortably made the playoffs, whereas only one goalie from the bottom-half of the standings has more than 3.
All those stats pretty clearly point towards the direction that goalie stats like Ws, GAA and SOs are directly correlated with team success. Now the big question is in which direction that correlation works, do goalies benefit from being on strong teams, or are those goalies the reason that their teams are so good in the first place? And no offense to the players in question, but given how many relatively low-TPE goalies we have seen perform very well on stacked teams in recent seasons, I have a pretty strong instinct on how I would answer that question at the moment. Add in the fact that Booth faced the second most shots in the entire league yet had much a much higher Save-% and a much lower GAA than all the other goalies who faced similar amounts of shots, actually rivaling the best of the best in the league in terms of save-percentage, and you have the best goalie of the season in my opinion. Simply put, I would argue that Save-Percentage is not the only, but the best singular indicator we have of a goalies individual performance. Vilde, Booth and Jobin have virtually the same save-percentage but, as I hope I have shown through the stats above, putting up that kind of save-oercentage on a below average team is simply more impressive than doing so on the top-two teams in the league.
Please explain the quality of shots faced...
This is such a poor argument though because you’re asking for data that nobody has. We don’t even know if FHM has a shot quality index and for all we know every shot could be weighted equally in the eyes of FHM. If you wanna dig through every game and rate shots based on quality be my guest, but until then asking people to evaluate goalies based on stats that don’t exist is not possible.
Also I second RED here I just didn’t wanna double post
11-26-2020, 09:29 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: As a member of the Awards Committee and a teammate of Booth I don't actually mind this thread. It is an interesting discussion to have imho and was presented in a respectful way, of all the "I'm mad that my friend/teammate didn't win" posts this is definitely one of the better ones. After all, there have been quite some discussions about the different kinds of goalie stats recently which makes the overall questions presented in here pretty valid. Add in the fact that we are still just a few seasons into the change to FHM and we have a situation that is still very much in flux when it comes to how we wanna rate player performances.
Overall, I think Booth was a very deserved winner here. If you have followed LA in any way this past season then it will have become obvious to you how much he carried that team at times, much more so than the other nominees did. Some might argue that this might be an argument for MVP but not for best in his position but I disagree. The very fact that he was able to put a team on his back like that was what made him the best at his position. And yes this might be a bit of a paradigm shift compared to the past were Ws and GAA were valued more than they were this time around - it's gonna be interesting to see if this was just a one time thing or remains the new standard from now on. From my perspectíve however it has become clear that GAA and W's are just such team-dependent stats in FHM that they lost a lot of their value when it comes to judging individual goalie performance.
If you sort goalie stats by GAA then you will find that the the top-3 goalies in that category are also on the top-3 teams in the standings and the trend continues if you go further down the list. There is also a pretty stable trend in that same GAA-sorted list when you look into the Save-Percentage column, the goalies with the best GAAs, in other words those on the strongest teams, also have the best save-percentages, then those percentages slowly drop the further down the standings you go... until you get to Booth who blows everyone else around him out of the water again. SOs tell a similar story, there are a bunch of goalies with 7 or more Shutouts, all on teams that comfortably made the playoffs, whereas only one goalie from the bottom-half of the standings has more than 3.
All those stats pretty clearly point towards the direction that goalie stats like Ws, GAA and SOs are directly correlated with team success. Now the big question is in which direction that correlation works, do goalies benefit from being on strong teams, or are those goalies the reason that their teams are so good in the first place? And no offense to the players in question, but given how many relatively low-TPE goalies we have seen perform very well on stacked teams in recent seasons, I have a pretty strong instinct on how I would answer that question at the moment. Add in the fact that Booth faced the second most shots in the entire league yet had much a much higher Save-% and a much lower GAA than all the other goalies who faced similar amounts of shots, actually rivaling the best of the best in the league in terms of save-percentage, and you have the best goalie of the season in my opinion. Simply put, I would argue that Save-Percentage is not the only, but the best singular indicator we have of a goalies individual performance. Vilde, Booth and Jobin have virtually the same save-percentage but, as I hope I have shown through the stats above, putting up that kind of save-oercentage on a below average team is simply more impressive than doing so on the top-two teams in the league.
Please explain the quality of shots faced...
How is that the one thing you took out of that entire post
11-26-2020, 09:42 PMWally Wrote: Please explain the quality of shots faced...
This is such a poor argument though because you’re asking for data that nobody has. We don’t even know if FHM has a shot quality index and for all we know every shot could be weighted equally in the eyes of FHM. If you wanna dig through every game and rate shots based on quality be my guest, but until then asking people to evaluate goalies based on stats that don’t exist is not possible.
Also I second RED here I just didn’t wanna double post
No that isn’t poor at all. You have no clue in your mind where any shots come from. The slot, uncontested, from the point... we have no data that is my point exactly. We have not one true advanced stat. So we keep using the inflated metrics with no meat or basis of validity to what a goalie actually faces.
11-26-2020, 09:48 PMDuff101 Wrote: This is such a poor argument though because you’re asking for data that nobody has. We don’t even know if FHM has a shot quality index and for all we know every shot could be weighted equally in the eyes of FHM. If you wanna dig through every game and rate shots based on quality be my guest, but until then asking people to evaluate goalies based on stats that don’t exist is not possible.
Also I second RED here I just didn’t wanna double post
No that isn’t poor at all. You have no clue in your mind where any shots come from. The slot, uncontested, from the point... we have no data that is my point exactly. We have not one true advanced stat. So we keep using the inflated metrics with no meat or basis of validity to what a goalie actually faces.
In that case isnt literally every stat invalid? You could make the argument that SV% is an invalid stat because we don’t know shot quality and at that point what do we do.
also lets ignore there are plenty of advanced stats like GSAA that don’t use shot quality as a metric at all
11-26-2020, 09:48 PMDuff101 Wrote: This is such a poor argument though because you’re asking for data that nobody has. We don’t even know if FHM has a shot quality index and for all we know every shot could be weighted equally in the eyes of FHM. If you wanna dig through every game and rate shots based on quality be my guest, but until then asking people to evaluate goalies based on stats that don’t exist is not possible.
Also I second RED here I just didn’t wanna double post
No that isn’t poor at all. You have no clue in your mind where any shots come from. The slot, uncontested, from the point... we have no data that is my point exactly. We have not one true advanced stat. So we keep using the inflated metrics with no meat or basis of validity to what a goalie actually faces.
Even if this is the hill you want to die on, who do you think faced more high-danger chances? The goalie who had one of the lowest shots-against totals with an elite defense in front of them, or the goalie who faced the second most shots with 4 defensemen who were under 650 TPE in front of him.
Even if we don’t have the actual high-danger chance data, you can look at the sheer volume and make the assumption that it is very likely that between the two, Booth faced more high danger chances.
Like I don’t say a word of this criticizing the awards committee. It is a thankless fucking job. I have to watch the Js committee debate. They care... all of them. Who I criticize are people coming in saying they have this advanced data like you can actually distinguish and categorize levels of shot quality. You can’t.
11-26-2020, 09:52 PMWally Wrote: No that isn’t poor at all. You have no clue in your mind where any shots come from. The slot, uncontested, from the point... we have no data that is my point exactly. We have not one true advanced stat. So we keep using the inflated metrics with no meat or basis of validity to what a goalie actually faces.
Even if this is the hill you want to die on, who do you think faced more high-danger chances? The goalie who had one of the lowest shots-against totals with an elite defense in front of them, or the goalie who faced the second most shots with 4 defensemen who were under 650 TPE in front of him.
Even if we don’t have the actual high-danger chance data, you can look at the sheer volume and make the assumption that it is very likely that between the two, Booth faced more high danger chances.
Just saying.
Jfc... I don’t even care. I don’t care who got the award. Just don’t blow smoke up someones ass with all this bs data. If Knox got it great... he had an awesome year. If Kata got it great... he had an awesome year.
11-26-2020, 10:03 PM(This post was last modified: 11-26-2020, 10:03 PM by RomanesEuntDomus.)
11-26-2020, 09:42 PMWally Wrote:
11-26-2020, 09:29 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: As a member of the Awards Committee and a teammate of Booth I don't actually mind this thread. It is an interesting discussion to have imho and was presented in a respectful way, of all the "I'm mad that my friend/teammate didn't win" posts this is definitely one of the better ones. After all, there have been quite some discussions about the different kinds of goalie stats recently which makes the overall questions presented in here pretty valid. Add in the fact that we are still just a few seasons into the change to FHM and we have a situation that is still very much in flux when it comes to how we wanna rate player performances.
Overall, I think Booth was a very deserved winner here. If you have followed LA in any way this past season then it will have become obvious to you how much he carried that team at times, much more so than the other nominees did. Some might argue that this might be an argument for MVP but not for best in his position but I disagree. The very fact that he was able to put a team on his back like that was what made him the best at his position. And yes this might be a bit of a paradigm shift compared to the past were Ws and GAA were valued more than they were this time around - it's gonna be interesting to see if this was just a one time thing or remains the new standard from now on. From my perspectíve however it has become clear that GAA and W's are just such team-dependent stats in FHM that they lost a lot of their value when it comes to judging individual goalie performance.
If you sort goalie stats by GAA then you will find that the the top-3 goalies in that category are also on the top-3 teams in the standings and the trend continues if you go further down the list. There is also a pretty stable trend in that same GAA-sorted list when you look into the Save-Percentage column, the goalies with the best GAAs, in other words those on the strongest teams, also have the best save-percentages, then those percentages slowly drop the further down the standings you go... until you get to Booth who blows everyone else around him out of the water again. SOs tell a similar story, there are a bunch of goalies with 7 or more Shutouts, all on teams that comfortably made the playoffs, whereas only one goalie from the bottom-half of the standings has more than 3.
All those stats pretty clearly point towards the direction that goalie stats like Ws, GAA and SOs are directly correlated with team success. Now the big question is in which direction that correlation works, do goalies benefit from being on strong teams, or are those goalies the reason that their teams are so good in the first place? And no offense to the players in question, but given how many relatively low-TPE goalies we have seen perform very well on stacked teams in recent seasons, I have a pretty strong instinct on how I would answer that question at the moment. Add in the fact that Booth faced the second most shots in the entire league yet had much a much higher Save-% and a much lower GAA than all the other goalies who faced similar amounts of shots, actually rivaling the best of the best in the league in terms of save-percentage, and you have the best goalie of the season in my opinion. Simply put, I would argue that Save-Percentage is not the only, but the best singular indicator we have of a goalies individual performance. Vilde, Booth and Jobin have virtually the same save-percentage but, as I hope I have shown through the stats above, putting up that kind of save-oercentage on a below average team is simply more impressive than doing so on the top-two teams in the league.
11-26-2020, 09:59 PMWally Wrote: Like I don’t say a word of this criticizing the awards committee. It is a thankless fucking job. I have to watch the Js committee debate. They care... all of them. Who I criticize are people coming in saying they have this advanced data like you can actually distinguish and categorize levels of shot quality. You can’t.
11-26-2020, 09:59 PMWally Wrote: Like I don’t say a word of this criticizing the awards committee. It is a thankless fucking job. I have to watch the Js committee debate. They care... all of them. Who I criticize are people coming in saying they have this advanced data like you can actually distinguish and categorize levels of shot quality. You can’t.
11-26-2020, 09:59 PMFuzzSHL Wrote: Even if this is the hill you want to die on, who do you think faced more high-danger chances? The goalie who had one of the lowest shots-against totals with an elite defense in front of them, or the goalie who faced the second most shots with 4 defensemen who were under 650 TPE in front of him.
Even if we don’t have the actual high-danger chance data, you can look at the sheer volume and make the assumption that it is very likely that between the two, Booth faced more high danger chances.
Just saying.
Jfc... I don’t even care. I don’t care who got the award. Just don’t blow smoke up someones ass with all this bs data. If Knox got it great... he had an awesome year. If Kata got it great... he had an awesome year.
If you didn’t care, why are you here? Let the man have his moment. I’m here defending the choice, and would be if Vilde was chosen, too. “Just don’t blow smoke up someones ass” well don’t come in here shitting on someone, either.
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