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Arkz · 12-13-2020, 11:39 PM

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We are about a third of the way through the season, and we’ve already seen a number of surprises. Fortunes rise and fall quickly in the SMJHL, and so far there’s a few teams who have improved on expectation and a few teams who have gone in the other direction. We asked our ‘expert’ panel of rankers to take a look at the performances so far this season and apply a rigorous methodology to find the top teams in the league. There was a stronger consensus this go ‘round, but we have a long way to go before we reach the playoffs and things could still change. So, without further ado, let’s get to the rankings themselves!

Stats and rankings set prior to regular season live broadcast date of 12/14/20

Previous Rank: 11

Arkz: The more things change, the more they stay the same. St. Louis has had a rough start to their season, taking over for Detroit as the resident basement dwellers in the East. There is potentially an argument to be made that they might be better than Nevada and Vancouver given the amount of games played, but St. Louis has a long way to go this season. At the time of writing this (after the Friday streamed games), the problems for St. Louis are mostly on offense. If they could figure out a way to get some more consistent scoring, they might be able to climb out of the bottom and even pass Newfoundland and maybe catch Detroit. Such is the state of the East at the moment.
Faelax: A rough start to the season for the Scarecrows, who sit at the bottom of the league. The offense is missing in action right now, with their leading scorer Adrian Ayers sitting at a measly 13 points through 21 games. On top of that, average goaltending and so-so defense means there really isn’t a whole lot going for this team right now. But, that is too be expected from a team full of rookies, and the future looks good for this team.
Shuff: We didn’t exactly expect St. Louis to be doing too much better than they are, not really a surprise to me to see them here at 12. They are giving up a ton of goals, second to just Vancouver in goals allowed per game (this was as of Wednesday, editing this on Saturday seems to indicate they have fixed that) , Nicole Antoescu has been having a rough season to date, I will go on record saying I thought he’d be much better in his last season for the Scarecrows. This does not go well around with a team that hasn’t scored much, just 45 goals through 21 games, again only Vancouver is worse at 47 goals in 24 games. For teams higher up on the power rankings who may want to make a deal with the Scarecrows, Colin Lampert is in his last year in St. Louis, but he has just six points on the season, as does the other logical trade bait Young Logo.

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Previous Rank: 5

Arkz: Doesn’t matter, won the Four-Star Cup. This is a tough season for Vancouver, but I don’t think everyone prepared for it to be this tough. The Whalers have given up a preposterous 86 goals so far this season as of the Friday games, which is about 17 more than the next closest team. Vancouver has also scored near the least amount of goals despite playing more games than most of the other teams. Their packed schedule may have something to do with the rough performance so far, so there’s a chance they recover a bit toward the end of the season but still, this is going to be a difficult season for Vancouver fans to watch. They might be better off just watching replays from last season.
Faelax: The Whalers won the cup last season, but paid the price for it. Nine call ups is hard for any team to come back from. This is felt primarily in the back end, where a defense full of rookies is struggling to put it all together right now, giving up 91 goals against thus far, the most in the league. Another rebuilding squad much like STL, the Whalers are also in a good spot to get back on track over the next couple of seasons.
Shuff: This was not a good start for us let’s say that much. As the captain of the Whalers I am supposed to talk about how we are going to turn it around. But talking now as an independent writer that’s hard to see. Like I said by St. Louis, the Whalers are dead last in GAA and GFA, which is about as bad as it gets. Their schedule gets harder opponents wise, so there is little relief there. The Whalers play high-event hockey, Corsi against is over 55. Jon St. Ark is doing solid in net with a .901 SV%, but that hasn’t been enough, when he sees over 40 shots in some games. For teams higher up on the power rankings who may want to make a deal with the Whalers, they are set to lose just two players next season. Devin Basher, a winger who has 10 points, and Johnny Shuffleboard, a defensemen who has 13 points. Both of those players are big names in Vancouver, Shuffleboard is the captain of the team, and Basher of course with the overtime winner in the Cup Final last season, so I’d be surprised to see either moved for even a bundle of picks, but it should be on the table.

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Previous Rank: 7

Arkz: Down here in the basement we find the Whaler’s opponent in the S56 Four-Story Cup, who have also been raided for talent prior to this year. Still, there’s some reason to believe that the Berserkers are better than their early record implies. Their goal differential isn’t that bad, and they are probably battling a bit of exhaustion in this early part of the season. If the Berserkers are able to plug more of their gaps and their rookies continue to earn, there’s a chance that Newfoundland could claw themselves out of the gutter and on the right side of .500, but they are going to need some breaks and hopefully a regression against some of the other teams around them.
Faelax: Currently sitting at 3rd in the eastern conference is the defending eastern champions, the Berserkers. Much like their finals opponents last season, they got ravaged by call ups, and had to replace a lot of players. However, they have been able to do a bit better than the other rebuilding teams. Not quite a positive goal differential, but they have looked competitive versus a few of the top teams. Newfoundland could be a dangerous team come playoffs time.
Shuff: Newfoundland at 10? How often will you see the defending champs and the runner up at 10 and 11? The Berserkers actually have a solid goal differentiation at -6, and they have been very unlucky with a PDO of around 97 (as of Wednesday). Now that may be a by-product of the weak goaltending we mentioned back in the first power rankings, the effect of losing Cale Amundson has been great, Hugo Gronros was second to last to Jon St. Ark in save percentage, but both have righted the ship a bit. Newfoundland also had the hardest schedule to start the season with, it gets a bit easier for them.

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Previous Rank: 1

Arkz: Probably the most surprising ranking and team so far this season, but for all the wrong reasons. Expectations were high with the Battleborn this season, as seen by our previous number one ranking for them in the pre-season. But since then, Nevada has struggled mightily, giving up the second most goals in the league and being only average in goals scored. Unlike Newfoundland, this may not be a situation where a bunch of rookies gain in TPE and close some gaps. This should be a team capable of winning now, and they just aren’t.
Faelax: The biggest surprise of the season so far has been the Battleborn. Ranked #1 in our preseason power rankings, they have been performing way under everyone’s expectations. Solid goaltending from the duo of Weaver and Supernaw has kept them in games, but the defense has struggled to help them out, and the offense has been stagnant. They have the talent to compete and be one of the top teams in the league, but the Battleborn have been fairly unlucky to this point. I would be surprised to see them stay this low in the standings, but they have some work to do if they want to climb up the standings.
Shuff: Let’s say we didn’t see this coming after having them at a very solid first place in the last ranking. Their goal differentiation has been a disaster, this has nothing to do with them getting unlucky games wise. Their PDO is low, but they are well under 45 in corsi for and over 45 in corsi against. What’s the cause? Maybe we just overrated them.

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Previous Rank: 12

Arkz: By the beard of Thor, Detroit has made some advancements this season. Still with a long way to go, the Falcons currently have an even goal differential at 58. Oddly enough, that puts them in the top half of the league in terms of goals scored, which is impressive compared to where they were last season. There’s still plenty of questions about this team, but it does look like they are finally starting to pull themselves out of the difficult stretch they’ve been in for the past few seasons after coming off of historic success. While they probably aren’t in Cup contention this season, next season could be very interesting for the Falcons.
Faelax: The Falcons have surprised quite a few with their start to the season. With the last of their cup winning team departed for the SHL, many expected Detroit to be at the bottom of the league. But they have looked good thus far, with a +1 goal differential, and staying competitive in the division, tied with Carolina for the South Eastern division lead at 19 points with a game in hand. Rookie Pavel Jeziak leads both the team and rookies in scoring with 15 points. The Falcons look like they could be a team to look out for in the playoffs.
Shuff: Ok the Falcons are winning some games, but they are under .500 at the time of this writing, but not much under it. But it may be a by-product of their forgiving schedule early, it gets a lot tougher from here. Evangelos Giannopoulos has 17 points in 20 games, a big season from him. They are rocking a high PDO as well, so I’m going to disagree with Faelax here, I don’t see the Falcons keeping this up, nor should any of the top teams be afraid of them.

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Previous Rank: 4

Arkz: I mean Carolina had to have a mediocre season eventually right? And if this counts as a rebuilding year for Carolina, they are doing it in style. They probably aren’t quite as good as their current record, but this still looks to be a team that will finish in the middle of the pack by the end of the season. That’s an unlucky result considering this is a team that should have made the Four-Star Cup final for the last two seasons, but at least they aren’t lost in the basement with Vancouver, Newfoundland, and Nevada. It's a testament to the leadership of the team if this is as bad as it gets.
Faelax: Carolina has been so good for so long, it was only a matter of time before they had a down season. The Kraken have good forwards and goaltending, but the defense is young and it shows in their 71 goals allowed, most in the eastern conference. With six players sitting in double digit points, they have a nice balanced attack that will be harder to shut down than some other teams top lines.
Shuff: Ok, another one of the semi-final teams from last season took a tumble thus far. They get the nod over the Falcons for seven, likely due to last season, as they have the same 19 points, and have a minus 17 goal differential. No real relief coming schedule wise, it just about matches what they have to face in the remaining two-thirds of the season. Impressively they have four players with a team-leading 13 points. A balanced attack is hard to defend.

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Previous Rank: 8

Arkz: The next five teams on this list, to me, are mostly interchangeable. They all sport similar records and comparable point differentials. Maine here has the unfortunate distinction of being the back member of this pack, but there’s a chance they might make a move as the season goes on. As you can see by their previous ranking, Maine has been outperforming the expectations of the rankers this season, who expected them to take a step back given the turnover at the goalie position. However, that just hasn’t happened and Maine is in the bottom half of goals allowed so far this season. On top of that, Maine gets a chance to feast on the struggling Scarecrows and Berserkers this season as well.
Faelax: The second place team in the eastern conference, they have been doing a good job of preventing shots and goals, sitting at nice 55 goals allowed through 21 games. The Timber are playing boring, defensive hockey, but it is getting the job done thus far. Chipping in on the offensive side of things is Jesse Seppanen, leading the team with 11 goals. These real defensive teams can be a real pain come playoff time, so don’t sleep on the Timber. It’s gonna suck for whatever first round team they end up against.
Shuff: Jesse Seppman has eleven goals on 52 shots. That is going to come down, nobody can score that much without shooting more. Walton Stromberg has three goals on 51 shots. That will go up. They play low event hockey, which isn’t much fun, but it has been winning them games. We were nervous about how they would fill the shoes of Leo Bloomfield, and for that they have been splitting duties between Ethan Smith and Bigga Foryu, who have both been very solid for the Timber.

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Previous Rank: 6

Arkz: Boxman who? Anaheim has rediscovered their offensive mojo this season, putting together one of the top goal scoring units in the league. They don’t hold a candle to Quebec City, but we’ll get to them in a moment. Donair continues to be dominant, and the rest of the team is pitching in as well, making this squad a bit less top-heavy compared to last season’s iteration. The biggest problem for Anaheim is going to be the fact that they will be up against some of the top teams in the league on a consistent basis, so this season may be a grind for them. Even still, they’ve put themselves in a strong position.
Faelax: Anaheim is riding one of the top offenses in the league right now. “Long” John Donair and Asclepius Perseus Flitterwind have been putting pucks in the back of the net left and right, combining for twenty goals between the two. Along with Leclerc and Dubolk on the backend, Anaheim is one of the scariest teams to play against right now. Time will tell how they turn out in a tough western conference.,
Shuff: Missing Boxman II? Nope. John Donair has shown that he is more than capable of scoring without him, and Asclepius Perseus Flitter has been scoring at a higher clip this season. Their defense is much improved, right around league average. They may have benefited from the easiest start to the season in the league, but it gets a lot harder from here, they have the league's third hardest schedule, only Vancouver and St. Louis have harder ones (and that’s due to them not playing themselves at all).

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Previous Rank: 3

Arkz: Boat gang rise up. Anchorage is about where we expected them to be in the first third of the season. Which is good for them, because we expected them to be near or at the top. The defense has been stout for the Armada so far in S57, which is giving them a big edge so far against so many offense-first teams in the league. The Arama will need to count on that defense though, as they’re going to be going up against a perennially strong team in Anaheim and two upstarts in Kelowna and Colorado regularly. And who knows, maybe Nevada will remember how to play hockey at some point.
Faelax: Boat team is not bad this season. Sitting at the top of the western blender right now, the Armada boast the toughest defense in the league. Chimkin Tendy is rocking a nice .934 save percentage, looking like one of the early frontrunners for the Cedric Robinson award. Leading the way on offense is Slava Petrov, with 15 assists, the playmaker has been setting up all of his teammates perfectly. Everything seems to be clicking well right now for the Armada.
Shuff: The Armada lead the west as of now, but Kelowna and Colorado are right with them. Of the three the Armada have faced the toughest schedule and they face the easiest of the three. This is a great shot for them to try to get home-ice.. And then play the one seed. Either way, they have the league’s best defense, and are right around Colorado for the west’s best offense. Also rocking a 100 PDO, which means this should be sustainable.

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Previous Rank: 10

Arkz: The Knights! Who would have thought. Tied with the next team on this list for biggest positive surprise on this list, Kelowna seems to have figured out how to put the right pieces together this season. I’m not too surprised that they’ve been so strong in S57, given their surprising playoff performance last season. I was curious if they would be able to take that momentum and carry it forward into the regular season, and they absolutely did. This is a fun, young team to watch this season and their games against Colorado should be some of the most interesting in the next few seasons.
Faelax: One of the big surprises of this season has been the rise of the Kelowna Knights. A team that many wrote off as a bottom feeder at the start of the season is looking like one of the top teams in the league so far. Kynwyl Pearce and Chris Goodname have been driving the offense at both 5 on 5 and on the powerplay. The Knights also boast one of the best goaltending duos in the league, with Peter Ramsay and Damien Vertigo posting a .935% and .916% respectively. Hopefully they can keep it up and try and pry the first round bye away from the Armada.
Shuff: As Arkz said, a bit of a surprise to see the Knights start out like this. A very solid +12 as a team, a league average offense and defense has been doing enough to win. The veteran Chris Goodname with 19 points in 23 games leads the team, but this is a young team and may be contending for a title for the next few seasons.

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Previous Rank: 9

Arkz: Speaking of Colorado, time for some happy dinosaur noises. The Raptors are basically a slightly better version of Kelowna, and should be at the top of the West by the time this season ends. Players are maturing at the right time, and Colorado already boasts one of the best offenses in the league and a defense that’s good enough to keep them in games. Looking forward to seeing Colorado and Quebec City play in the playoffs and seeing if the Citadelles can avenge their early exit at the Raptors’ claws last season. The way things are going right now, there’s no guarantee that they would.
Faelax: Colorado is riding one of the hottest lines in the SMJHL to the top of the west. The Kekalainen/Dolphin/Panda line has been tearing it up all season. Besides them, the defense has been playing well thus far, and the goalies have been good. They seem to be maturing at the right time, and the Raptors are my pick to take the SW division bye into the playoffs.
Shuff: Colorado. Jarmo Kekalainen, Josh Dolphin, Juni Panda. Remember those three names for all-star games or upcoming awards, they are having huge seasons to date, all at/over 20 points in 20 games. The team has a high PDO, they are at risk of falling back to earth soon, and they can’t really afford that given the tight race atop the Western Conference.

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Previous Rank: 2

Arkz: The consensus number one pick of our list. Perhaps should have been the number one team in our pre-season rankings, if some goof didn’t put them at ten on his list. I mean, who would do that? In any case, the Quebec City offense is absolutely disgusting. Just filthy. Take a look at the SMJHL stat page and sort by total points, and you’ll basically just get a copy of the Citadelles roster with a few Raptors and random teams sprinkled in. The defense and goaltending have been average, but when you’re scoring like 4.4 goals a game you can afford to give up a couple on the other end. Quebec City is building up a big enough lead in the East that they probably can’t be caught, and teams who want to make a Cup run should start preparing to have to go through Quebec City to get there.
Faelax: Everything's coming up Quebec right now. The offense is producing at a ridiculous pace right now, with all but three players sitting at double digit points. Centers Jst Maro and Zdenko Beranek are doing most of the heavy lifting, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of those two with an MVP nomination at the end of the season. The scariest part though? There is room for improvement from the Citadelles. The defense could tighten up a bit, and goalies could stop a couple more pucks. The fact that the clear cut top team in the league has room to grow should be very worrying for the teams trying to catch up.
Shuff: Right where they belong at number one, ehm whoever ranking them ten in the first ranking. They are out possessing the league at a crazy rate, they are out scoring the league at a crazy rate. The only thing they might be lacking is some defense, which is only league average. Definitely a big time favorite to win it all, here at the first third point. I mentioned a few defenders above that could be trade targets if they wish to go all-in on this season, or they could stand pat and still likely have the best team and a two year window to go along with it. It’s hard to really find any issues with a team that has just two losses.

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(note: The change numbers in two of the graphics are off, we'll get that fixed)

Word Count: 3,902. Please split between @Arkz, @mee, and @Faelax.