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(GRADED) Deep Dive 2 - S57 SMJHL Draft Value
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(This post was last modified: 12-24-2020, 02:04 AM by leafs1997.)

It’s way too early for any meaningful analysis on how the SMJHL teams did in the most recent draft – but that’s not going to stop me from trying. It looks like amidships did something similar, here is my twist on it: instead of looking at total TPE, I look at average weekly TPE. This creates a level playing field for those that didn’t join at the most opportune time and judges everyone based on how much they could have earned. Then we can determine the value of each draftee based on their Average Weekly TPE Earning Percentile and their Draft Percentile – the larger the difference between the two, the better (or worse) the value of the pick was. Again, this is too early to see how these draftees will perform in the long run.

Top 5 Value Picks:
Max Müller - Difference of 44.62% (Drafted 55th Overall, Ranked 31th in Weekly Earning)
Shion Okamoto - Difference of 44.51% (Drafted 50th Overall, Ranked 18th in Weekly Earning)
Mats LaFleur - Difference of 40.68% (Drafted 69th Overall, Ranked 45th in Weekly Earning)
Nike Kickz Jr - Difference of 33.67% (Drafted 37th Overall, Ranked 3th in Weekly Earning)
Bjørn Jakobsen - Difference of 28.95% (Drafted 40th Overall, Ranked 15th in Weekly Earning)

Top 5 Most Accurate Picks:
Ellis McPickle - Difference of -0.12% (Drafted 42th Overall, Ranked 46th in Weekly Earning)
Noel Blanchet - Difference of -0.25% (Drafted 6th Overall, Ranked 4th in Weekly Earning)
Gregory Goode - Difference of -0.44% (Drafted 19th Overall, Ranked 18th in Weekly Earning)
Brian Davenport - Difference of -0.67% (Drafted 28th Overall, Ranked 34th in Weekly Earning)
Kermit Murphy - Difference of -1.15% (Drafted 4th Overall, Ranked 4th in Weekly Earning)

Top 5 Underperforming Picks:
Freddy Fernandez - Difference of -36.87% (Drafted 43th Overall, Ranked 55th in Weekly Earning)
Connor Broussard - Difference of -33.56% (Drafted 45th Overall, Ranked 55th in Weekly Earning)
Coco Colin - Difference of -30.26% (Drafted 47th Overall, Ranked 55th in Weekly Earning)
Fredrik Stefansson - Difference of -29.45% (Drafted 16th Overall, Ranked 42th in Weekly Earning)
Austin Smith - Difference of -28.62% (Drafted 48th Overall, Ranked 55th in Weekly Earning)


With this information we can start to garner how SMJHL GMs did this past draft based on where they made their picks. Some GM’s will feel a little better than others, while some had their hands tied and were left to pickup what was available. The percentage is the Avg week TPE earning per Player Drafted, as a percentile of how the rest of the teams did.

Kelowna - 90.12% (10.28 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 7 Players Drafted)
Anchorage - 89.02% (10.13 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 6 Players Drafted)
Detroit - 72.18% (8.56 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 5 Players Drafted)
Newfoundland - 69.19% (8.35 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 7 Players Drafted)
Quebec City - 65.64% (8.11 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 4 Players Drafted)
Vancouver - 60.21% (7.75 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 5 Players Drafted)
Maine - 52.97% (7.3 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 5 Players Drafted)
Colorado - 48.6% (7.03 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 7 Players Drafted)
St. Louis - 33.26% (6.06 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 9 Players Drafted)
Carolina - 29.5% (5.8 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 7 Players Drafted)
Anaheim - 16.5% (4.73 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 5 Players Drafted)
Nevada - 0.91% (1.33 Avg TPE/Player/Week, 5 Players Drafted)

Congrats to Kelowna and Anchorage on stellar drafts thus far, followed by a close grouping of Detroit, Newfoundland, Quebec City and Vancouver. Maine, Colorado, and St. Louis will be content with their drafts, while Carolina, Anaheim and Nevada might have some post draft regret but still have bright spots to look at – whether it’s the highest value pick in Max Muller going to Anaheim, or a solid prospect in Finn von Murphenstein for Carolina, or Vladlen Sidorov for the Battelborn.

It will be interesting to see where these players are come time for the SHL entry draft. I’ll be working on an expanded version of this for that time.

725

Approved, +5 TPE @Sivart

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