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Grum · 02-12-2021, 06:53 PM

Like 2-3 weeks ago I sent out a form to get some feedback on the casino and get some ideas from the community. One of the responses I got was to talk about how the casino makes the betting lines. Since I’ve changed the method this season I thought this would be perfect

Old Method:

I’ve used a few different methods for the casino. When I was first hired as an assistant to Inf1d3l in S52, he used a sheet to essentially sim a season to get the odds. This worked really well back when we used STHS as the engine but unfortunately for me when I took over in S53 we switched over to FHM. I didn’t really know what to do that season so I used the sheet and then let the PT team help me adjust as we went. Since the engine was completely new to everyone, it was really just shots in the dark. Next season was pretty much the same thing except I overestimated how much tpe played a role in FHM.

Then the next method I used in S55 was just looking at team tpe values and guesstimating how many wins they would have for the season. Then I would usually ask 1-2 people to look over the betting lines and see what they thought. As results will tell, this was not a very good way to do things.

Thennnn this past season with the change to 66 games, I kinda just said fuck it and used the win percentage to find the odds. This of course… was quite disastrous. I didn’t make that many adjustments for the changes that teams made or for how much a team progressed.

New Method:

This past offseason I was messaged by @hotdog with the suggestion to move the casino opening date closer to the regular season so that we could do test sims rather than use these methods. This was an idea I know a lot of people told me to do but I was kind of just going through the steps of the job without looking to innovate or get better at it so I kinda just agreed and put it to the back of my mind. However, this season when hotdog messaged me I just jumped for it so that’s what we did this season. Hotdog simmed 10 test seasons with the preseason file for me (thank you again hotdog!) and I looked at the results. Since this was only a preseason file and FHM can sometimes be wonky when test swimming, I messed around with the average wins of these sims to get a betting line I was happy with. Going forward this is definitely the method the casino will be using.

Just for fun though, I used my expert method of looking at them tpe values to get betting lines and this was the result:

Inferno

29.5

16.5

50.5

43.5

50.5

38.5

50.5

36.5

40.5

22.5

21.5

24.5

14.5

23.5

18.5

44.5

39.5

37.5

There are a few ones here that aren't too bad but there is a very clear parlay here which was the main problem with seasons past. NOLA Under (I'm looking at this team and I have no idea what I was thinking when making a 24.5 line), WPG Under, and EDM over. SEA over is also a pretty good one.

Also quick note: I'm a bit busy today so I will be doing casino withdraws tomorrow, as well as releasing the casino sheet so that everyone can see their bets (Found under important threads in SHL progression)

WC: 615

5ympathies · 02-12-2021, 07:23 PM

wow now I know who to blame when everyone loses their parlay

@hotdog smh

Thanks to JSS for the signature

Zomp · 02-12-2021, 07:50 PM

02-12-2021, 07:23 PM5ympathies Wrote: wow now I know who to blame when everyone loses their parlay

@hotdog smh

that fucking guy..

charlieconway · 02-13-2021, 01:32 AM

It was interesting to read about the methodology behind the betting lines, I'll admit I had no idea how the numbers were arrived at in the past. Cool article.

***Gwdjohnson*** · 02-13-2021, 02:37 AM

thank you grum these lines are way better and im glad you got a working method going .-.

dankoa · 02-13-2021, 02:17 PM

hotdog is a snitch wow

***golden_apricot*** · 02-13-2021, 03:28 PM

Can we get some slightly better odds on cup winners? Like if I wanna gamble 1M on a bottom feeding team to win the cup I feel like I should get better odds than 10:1

charlieconway · 02-13-2021, 04:10 PM

02-13-2021, 03:28 PMgolden_apricot Wrote: Can we get some slightly better odds on cup winners? Like if I wanna gamble 1M on a bottom feeding team to win the cup I feel like I should get better odds than 10:1

Agreed. It's never seemed worth it for me. I just usually go for the parlay and then skip the champion bet. At the very least, there need to be more 'tiers' of teams.

Grum · 02-13-2021, 11:26 PM

02-13-2021, 03:28 PMgolden_apricot Wrote: Can we get some slightly better odds on cup winners? Like if I wanna gamble 1M on a bottom feeding team to win the cup I feel like I should get better odds than 10:1

This is definitely something I'm going to be looking to rework this season. Was thinking of adjusting the tiers a bit more to be more better friendly and maybe not put the bottom-mid teams in a tier system.
If you have a suggestion of how you think they should be reworked lmk

Ronniewalker · 02-16-2021, 11:31 AM

Casino sheets when? I can't remember who I picked and the suspense is killing me :D

Sigs by sulovilen , Ragnar , supertardis101 , Leviadan , High Stick King , Carpy & KaleSalad

S69 Challenge Cup Champion - Philadelphia Forge Forge

S59 & S62 Challenge Cup Champion - Texas Renegades

S57 Four Star Cup Champion - Anchorage Armada Armada

S57 & S58 WJC / S62, S64 & S66 IIHF Gold Medalist - Team Finland Finland

After 69 shots on net with still no SHL goals to show for it, even the opposition started to feel so sorry for Lemo, that they decided to help him out :D

- Bad pass by Jack Klompus, he gave it right to Lemo Pihl.

- Lemo Pihl rips it to the net...

- Lemo Pihl will find the empty net, that should do it!

TEX @ MAN, S59 game 31

Grum · 02-16-2021, 01:21 PM

02-16-2021, 11:31 AMRonniewalker Wrote: Casino sheets when? I can't remember who I picked and the suspense is killing me :D

https://simulationhockey.com/showthread....pid2990025

Sorry for the delay!

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