Create Account

Was two the number?
#1

Good afternoon SMJHL!

With the recent expansion announcement, congrats to @overdoo and @Geekusoid on their winning bids. To those who did not get it, do not give up. Do not take it as a shot to what you can do, look for opportunities, keep moving forward. With that, I decided to do a little research on what the number should be? Should there have only been 2 teams to make it a 14 team league, 7 per conference, or would have 4 expansions made more sense? Well, let's take a look at the numbers!

First, I looked at the amount of players that each team had to see whether we could even fill 14 or 16 teams.
Anaheim Outlaws 21
Anchorage Armada 23
Carolina Kraken 21
Colorado Raptors 23
Detroit Falcons 22
Kelowna Knights 23
Maine Timber 21
Nevada Battleborn 21
Newfoundland Berserkers 21
Quebec City Citadelles 23
St. Louis Scarecrows 21
Vancouver Whalers 23

There are a total of 263 players in the league with an additional many pages of free agents that could easily fill those slots. I mean, the SMJHL is about playing time, so who cares if the last line is filled with inactives or whatever. You want to be able to play and showcase those players and enjoy it.

Now, the next thing I looked at was actives. How many players does each team have that physically updated in the last two weeks?

Anaheim Outlaws 15
Anchorage Armada 11
Carolina Kraken 16
Colorado Raptors 15
Detroit Falcons 9
Kelowna Knights 12
Maine Timber 16
Nevada Battleborn 15
Newfoundland Berserkers 16
Quebec City Citadelles 15
St. Louis Scarecrows 16
Vancouver Whalers 18

With this, there were 174 players that updated in the last two weeks. That is a super nice percentage of players that updated in the past two weeks. Exactly how many players had updated? Well, 66% of the players updated. That is a fantastic number. How was the breakdown per term?

Anaheim Outlaws 71%
Anchorage Armada 48%
Carolina Kraken 76%
Colorado Raptors 65%
Detroit Falcons 41%
Kelowna Knights 52%
Maine Timber 76%
Nevada Battleborn 71%
Newfoundland Berserkers 76%
Quebec City Citadelles 65%
St. Louis Scarecrows 76%
Vancouver Whalers 78%

So, my next thing I looked at was maybe Head Office was worried about people being called up because of the new update scale being a little better for players. So, I took a totally random number (600) and decided to count how many players have over 600 TPE in the SMJHL. To my surprise, there were 51 players that have over 600 TPE and likely could be called up soon. Again, let's look at the breakdown per team.

Anaheim Outlaws 6
Anchorage Armada 7
Carolina Kraken 3
Colorado Raptors 6
Detroit Falcons 4
Kelowna Knights 3
Maine Timber 0
Nevada Battleborn 1
Newfoundland Berserkers 7
Quebec City Citadelles 3
St. Louis Scarecrows 7
Vancouver Whalers 4

So, there is a good amount of players that could have 1 season left or be called up. So, where would those players fit in the SHL? Well, it has to do with regressing players, of course. They need to be able to fill a spot! So, how many of each class are regressing?

Season 51: 19 players
Season 50: 27 players
Season 49: 12 players
Season 48: 13 players
Season 47: 17 players
Season 46: 25 players
Season 45: 9 players
Season 44: 3 players
Season 43: 9 players
Season 42: 2 players
Season 41: 2 players

So, when you look at it, the players who are going to be near a place that really would not bode well for them being successful, the Season 41-45, we are only looking at 25 players. That turnover is not that great, while we look at some successful classes coming up. Now, that could be good, but, also, those players will hopefully recreate meaning we need more spots. So, was 2 teams the best number knowing that we will probably need to expand pretty soon given these numbers?

Currently, there would be 12.42 players per team in a 14 team league. There would be 10.875 actives in a 16 team league. I feel like 2 solid lines with room for those UDFA would actually be PERFECT, so teams can add those newer players without running out of room. I really think 10 should be the number and with large classes probably incoming, was two actually the number?

I decided to do a lot more research on the SMJHL and do a little bit of digging on the numbers. I hope you enjoyed reading. Let me know if you have any questions.

Quote:Words: 800

[Image: huNeCNb.png]
Thank you OrbitingDeath! <3
Reply
#2

As an aside, I think I was surprised to see the number of inactives per roster in the DSFL when the norm for the SMJHL especially in recent seasons is to stuff your roster with as many actives as possible to ensure long term success.
Imagining a J team with 20 roster spots (18 skaters and 2 goalies) having only 11 actives on average seems like a nightmare at first, but I do think there's some merit in having multiple teams with more holes, as the value in being a UDFA means that you gain a lot of attention from numerous teams compared to the couple looking to fill their spots.

Then for teams who do excel at drafting and development, the differences for them become more pronounced rather, although you could argue that as it is, there are already some teams that have historically been consistently above/below their peers as it is in that area.

Really though if I could personally pick a perfect line, I think that 14ish per team mark would be the ideal. Could argue that between the 11ish number currently calculated and a relatively deep draft, that number could be achievable for most teams. Still, can understand HO's conservatism since increasing the number of teams down the road is easier than the other direction.

[Image: 1rdovVs.gif]

[Image: X6NDpNM.png][Image: 6eXcLdf.png]
Reply
#3

07-18-2021, 01:26 AMNhamlet Wrote: As an aside, I think I was surprised to see the number of inactives per roster in the DSFL when the norm for the SMJHL especially in recent seasons is to stuff your roster with as many actives as possible to ensure long term success.
Imagining a J team with 20 roster spots (18 skaters and 2 goalies) having only 11 actives on average seems like a nightmare at first, but I do think there's some merit in having multiple teams with more holes, as the value in being a UDFA means that you gain a lot of attention from numerous teams compared to the couple looking to fill their spots.

Then for teams who do excel at drafting and development, the differences for them become more pronounced rather, although you could argue that as it is, there are already some teams that have historically been consistently above/below their peers as it is in that area.

Really though if I could personally pick a perfect line, I think that 14ish per team mark would be the ideal. Could argue that between the 11ish number currently calculated and a relatively deep draft, that number could be achievable for most teams. Still, can understand HO's conservatism since increasing the number of teams down the road is easier than the other direction.
I think you never want to run into a time where there's no room for a player whether it's a UDFA or players playing on 3rd or 4th lines. Imagine coming into the league as a new person and having no spot for you in the league. That's super disheartening and probably would just give up. Now, imagine if you have a spot and are a top 6 or top 4 right away. Which is more appealing? I think you really want to have teams with a top 6/top 4 actives. The league should be about playing time and showcasing. I think you do that best in your top 6/top 4.

I appreciate you reading and commenting!

[Image: huNeCNb.png]
Thank you OrbitingDeath! <3
Reply
#4

07-18-2021, 10:04 AMBayley Wrote:
07-18-2021, 01:26 AMNhamlet Wrote: As an aside, I think I was surprised to see the number of inactives per roster in the DSFL when the norm for the SMJHL especially in recent seasons is to stuff your roster with as many actives as possible to ensure long term success.
Imagining a J team with 20 roster spots (18 skaters and 2 goalies) having only 11 actives on average seems like a nightmare at first, but I do think there's some merit in having multiple teams with more holes, as the value in being a UDFA means that you gain a lot of attention from numerous teams compared to the couple looking to fill their spots.

Then for teams who do excel at drafting and development, the differences for them become more pronounced rather, although you could argue that as it is, there are already some teams that have historically been consistently above/below their peers as it is in that area.

Really though if I could personally pick a perfect line, I think that 14ish per team mark would be the ideal. Could argue that between the 11ish number currently calculated and a relatively deep draft, that number could be achievable for most teams. Still, can understand HO's conservatism since increasing the number of teams down the road is easier than the other direction.
I think you never want to run into a time where there's no room for a player whether it's a UDFA or players playing on 3rd or 4th lines. Imagine coming into the league as a new person and having no spot for you in the league. That's super disheartening and probably would just give up. Now, imagine if you have a spot and are a top 6 or top 4 right away. Which is more appealing? I think you really want to have teams with a top 6/top 4 actives. The league should be about playing time and showcasing. I think you do that best in your top 6/top 4.

I appreciate you reading and commenting!

It absolutely is true that hitting the player cap is something you want to avoid. Still though this was a rare occurance and if anything, expansion could and probably should have happened a season earlier assuming that was something regularly monitored.

I think showcasing is very possible in a top 9F/top 6D/2G situation depending on what you're hoping to get out of your player's role. Fundamentally I suppose that means I view that the buffer space more positively than strictly a top 6F/4D/1G picture.

[Image: 1rdovVs.gif]

[Image: X6NDpNM.png][Image: 6eXcLdf.png]
Reply
#5

so if there is 174 people that are actively updating the past 2 weeks. if a team is of 20 players, that is 240 spots on 12 teams. So if we have around 72.5% of actives in the SMJHL. Which is honestly great, but that also leaves 66 spots that are "inactive". Now that is normally not the case as you still have players that really only play in juniors and cap out at 425, or they log onto the site and dont update. They are still "active". So if we bump down that number to lets say 40. Plus the 40 new positions that are open once expansion happens that 80 spots that can get filled.

Then you got the call-ups. Its hard to predict of course, but you can look at past call ups. S60 call ups are at 27, S59 it is 29.

So lets say around 27 call ups for the season.

So you will need 27 open spots.

So now we are at 107 open spots in a 14 team league.

Then we also have to calculate the palyers that are phasing out, which is anyone that is a S57 prospect, as they are playing their last season in the SMJHL, and I counted 14.

So now we have 121 spots open for actives if you expand by 2 teams.

The largest draft in the SMJHL was the S46 draft was where 117 players were picked. And from that we had 180 people create for the draft.


I dont see the need for 4 new teams.

[Image: 0XJkcN5.png]
Czechoslovakia PROFILE || UPDATE || RAGE. Rage 
[Image: luketd.gif]




Reply
#6

07-18-2021, 12:43 PMluketd Wrote: so if there is 174 people that are actively updating the past 2 weeks. if a team is of 20 players, that is 240 spots on 12 teams. So if we have around 72.5% of actives in the SMJHL. Which is honestly great, but that also leaves 66 spots that are "inactive". Now that is normally not the case as you still have players that really only play in juniors and cap out at 425, or they log onto the site and dont update. They are still "active". So if we bump down that number to lets say 40. Plus the 40 new positions that are open once expansion happens that 80 spots that can get filled.

Then you got the call-ups. Its hard to predict of course, but you can look at past call ups. S60 call ups are at 27, S59 it is 29.

So lets say around 27 call ups for the season.

So you will need 27 open spots.

So now we are at 107 open spots in a 14 team league.

Then we also have to calculate the palyers that are phasing out, which is anyone that is a S57 prospect, as they are playing their last season in the SMJHL, and I counted 14.

So now we have 121 spots open for actives if you expand by 2 teams.

The largest draft in the SMJHL was the S46 draft was where 117 players were picked. And from that we had 180 people create for the draft.


I dont see the need for 4 new teams.
You're probably right for this season, but if we continue to grow and the players retiring continue to recreate, the need for expansion will come quickly in a season or 2. If I were a GM, I'd rather have expansion all happen at once than two expansions in 3 seasons.

I appreciate your numbers tho, it helps me from the other side to see what is being looked at.

[Image: huNeCNb.png]
Thank you OrbitingDeath! <3
Reply
#7

07-18-2021, 09:50 PMBayley Wrote:
07-18-2021, 12:43 PMluketd Wrote: so if there is 174 people that are actively updating the past 2 weeks. if a team is of 20 players, that is 240 spots on 12 teams. So if we have around 72.5% of actives in the SMJHL. Which is honestly great, but that also leaves 66 spots that are "inactive". Now that is normally not the case as you still have players that really only play in juniors and cap out at 425, or they log onto the site and dont update. They are still "active". So if we bump down that number to lets say 40. Plus the 40 new positions that are open once expansion happens that 80 spots that can get filled.

Then you got the call-ups. Its hard to predict of course, but you can look at past call ups. S60 call ups are at 27, S59 it is 29.

So lets say around 27 call ups for the season.

So you will need 27 open spots.

So now we are at 107 open spots in a 14 team league.

Then we also have to calculate the palyers that are phasing out, which is anyone that is a S57 prospect, as they are playing their last season in the SMJHL, and I counted 14.

So now we have 121 spots open for actives if you expand by 2 teams.

The largest draft in the SMJHL was the S46 draft was where 117 players were picked. And from that we had 180 people create for the draft.


I dont see the need for 4 new teams.
You're probably right for this season, but if we continue to grow and the players retiring continue to recreate, the need for expansion will come quickly in a season or 2. If I were a GM, I'd rather have expansion all happen at once than two expansions in 3 seasons.

I appreciate your numbers tho, it helps me from the other side to see what is being looked at.

Personally I think it's better (for Carolina at least) to not lose 2 players in one off season. Appreciate the analysis and conversation though.

[Image: sve7en.gif]


[Image: 1tWWEzv.png][Image: 8zFnf2t.png][Image: 6Lj3x8E.png][Image: xkAdpbO.png][Image: xnZrhKU.png][Image: 9YigPG2.png][Image: bpYxJ69.png]
Reply
#8

07-18-2021, 12:43 PMluketd Wrote: The largest draft in the SMJHL was the S46 draft was where 117 players were picked. And from that we had 180 people create for the draft.

The fact that there are people going undrafted SCREAMS that more teams are needed. Not going drafted is as disheartening as not having a spot upon creation. So either have the drafts run till everyone is drafted, or just add teams so everyone can go to a team.
Reply
#9

07-25-2021, 02:12 PMAir Crou Wrote:
07-18-2021, 12:43 PMluketd Wrote: The largest draft in the SMJHL was the S46 draft was where 117 players were picked. And from that we had 180 people create for the draft.

The fact that there are people going undrafted SCREAMS that more teams are needed. Not going drafted is as disheartening as not having a spot upon creation. So either have the drafts run till everyone is drafted, or just add teams so everyone can go to a team.
No

[Image: b6kz2LW.png]
[Image: CWUfbzX.jpg]
Reply
#10

07-25-2021, 02:12 PMAir Crou Wrote:
07-18-2021, 12:43 PMluketd Wrote: The largest draft in the SMJHL was the S46 draft was where 117 players were picked. And from that we had 180 people create for the draft.

The fact that there are people going undrafted SCREAMS that more teams are needed. Not going drafted is as disheartening as not having a spot upon creation. So either have the drafts run till everyone is drafted, or just add teams so everyone can go to a team.

Somebody might need to clarify but outside of a few niche cases in the J, we've never had an seemingly recently active person undrafted due to space.

[Image: 1rdovVs.gif]

[Image: X6NDpNM.png][Image: 6eXcLdf.png]
Reply




Users browsing this thread:
1 Guest(s)




Navigation

 

Extra Menu

 

About us

The Simulation Hockey League is a free online forums based sim league where you create your own fantasy hockey player. Join today and create your player, become a GM, get drafted, sign contracts, make trades and compete against hundreds of players from around the world.