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GCool · 08-21-2021, 05:32 PM

Hi all,

Me again. I typed out this whole introduction about how my child has sort of inhibited my ability to continue with the GCoolFactor streak like I had started to do a few seasons ago. That unfortunately got removed/deleted when I tried to undo something. Evidently, CTRL+Z just undoes all of the text? That's really unfortunate, because I could have used the extra cash from that couple hundred words! I'll try to recreate something like it (but trust me, the original text, a real stream-of-consciousness type vibe, was really fucking cool).

If you're new - or you're like most of the SHL and only read articles that could possibly have some information about your own player - GCoolFactor was something I came up with to teach a very basic statistical concept to the league at large, as well as create my own ranking system which doesn't carry any weight whatsoever. The context of GCoolFactor (GCF) is that if you rank highly in this, you should be getting (god forbid this EVER exists across the entire league) some neutral media pieces about you, some offers for interviews / podcast appearances, etc. You're cool. You're better than people in your class at least by a certain margin across perhaps multiple categories.

I use a thing called a z-score, which is

(value - mean) / std dev.

So, as you can tell, if your value for any of the five metrics [I've explained below] is close to the average, your z-score for that category is going to be 0 (rather than the value itself). This attempts to normalize the fluctuations in the metrics a little bit better, but as you'll see, it honestly doesn't matter all that much.

Now, the five categories:

TPE. Obviously. You aren't cool if you aren't earning.
Giveaway/Takeaway Ratio. It seems especially rare in the SMJHL to have a positive one of these, so we should really look at the people who have more takeaways than giveaways. Yes, slightly biased toward defensemen, but not enough where I'm taking it out.
Overall Game Rating. You gotta be performing well in the game, especially as a rookie and getting drafted, to be recognized.
Specialty Game Rating. If your DGR is higher than your OGR, you were compared to others who also experienced this. Very rarely (I think only once in this top 40) were the OGR and DGR equal - and that person went to the DGR category. Only 15 players had a higher DGR than OGR - and yes, most of them were defensemen, but not all, which is why I did it this way. There are certainly roleplayers who might have an awful GR but a high DGR, so it'll at the very least earn them a cancellation over two categories. I always end up explaining this bit a whole lot, but nbd.
Fantasy Points. Another straightforward one to end it.

So I'm just going to go down the list of the Entry Draft while including the player's GCoolFactor and GCF ranking, rather than

Round 1
1. Rage

Melvin Majestik-Moose - D Battleborn

GCoolFactor: 2.977
GCF Rank: 8
Where Moose beats his counterparts most handily is the TPE. But he did his part on the ice as well, scoring a decent number of fantasy points!

2. Specters

Atticus Hale - C Kraken

GCoolFactor: -0.851
GCF Rank: 28
Sort of a surprising #2 overall from the GCF perspective, though certainly not a lazy pick by any means. Clearly fulfilling a need at center for the future.

3.

Leons Breidis - D Knights

GCoolFactor: 6.497
GCF Rank: 1
The Patriotes do the right thing and pick the coolest guy in the draft. I knew Dankoa knew what he was doing, despite basically copying the Militia color scheme from a few seasons ago and all that shit. Breidis leads his class in fantasy points, pretty much leads in TPE, and has a positive GA/TA ratio. Not much more you can ask for when you're using this very peculiar metric to evaluate talent.

4. Rage

Adelie de Pengu - D Outlaws

GCoolFactor: 3.604
GCF Rank: 7
If you were in the Outlaws LR, you'd know that Pengu was the coolest Outlaw of the bunch even before looking at this metric - and sure enough, she's first off the board in the S61 draft. Where she really made up the GCF was an outstanding takeaway ratio (24:13). In addition to being a higher earner, she produced about average among her draft classmates, so there weren't many huge negatives. That's how you play the GCF game.

5. Dragons

Grogu Mandosson - C Outlaws

GCoolFactor: 0.482
GCF Rank: 17
Back-to-back Outlaws? In the top 5? Who would've thought [without a bunch of snarky smirks commenting on power rankings or some bullshit]? That's right, good old Kez/Muerto was selected by the old men of the sea, the Dragons. He posted an OGR slightly better than the mean, at 58, and besides that he was pretty par for the course. Perfect pace for a recreate just doin' his part out there, and with Calgary, that's simply the kind of draft game they'd prefer to play.

6. Dragons

Darwin Koff - RW Whalers

GCoolFactor: -2.397
GCF Rank: 35
Another big reach on the second half of back-to-back Dragons picks. Don't know much about Lobbanet, but I have to say, this is where the GCF ranking system is inherently flawed. In a strong, deep class such as this, there are going to be perfectly serviceable players that have a slightly negative GCF. Koff doesn't have the most TPE, didn't have a great rookie season on the stat sheet (he played for Vancouver, for Christ's sake), and didn't manage to defy all odds by taking it more often than giving it. BUT, he's still solid by rookie standards in earning. Again, that's a veteran draft move in selecting who's probably a good guy. In the context of GCF, I don't know if people will be clamoring to interview him unless he has chicken parms on hand, but I digress.

7. Forge

Hans Graf - D Raptors

GCoolFactor: -0.338
GCF Rank: 21
To quote myself from a few seasons ago, "Colorado ain't shit tbh". I still stand by that, in the spirit of rivalry. But Hans Graf is a solid pick for the Forge at #7. I know the newest team on the block has really been trying to iron out ... build a foundation ... is there another word I'm missing? But, like, create a culture from raw materials. And Drokeep could be that guy moving forward. Despite the TPE disadvantage he performed well from a fantasy perspective, scoring a half standard deviation above the mean. And he was an offensive-minded defenseman so he barely stood a chance when comparing OGRs to pure scoring forwards. I'm curious to see how he develops! Color me intrigued - but not in the grimey maroon and darksteel that is the Philadelphia palette. That's fucking disgusting.

8. Specters

Tomas Zadina - RW Knights

GCoolFactor: 0.364
GCF Rank: 18
Cal to NOLA? Yup.

9. Steelhawks

Gabe-Gooney-Waters Harrak - RW Raptors

GCoolFactor: -3.179
GCF Rank: 37
Nour to HAM? Uh, yuuuuup. That first name was actually -3.179 GCF. Go figure.

10. Argonauts

Landon Fischermann - D Whalers

GCoolFactor: 0.674
GCF Rank: 15
Another Whaler in the top 10. That's ... y'know, good for them. The first juniors rivalry I EVER had was back in S23 when I was on the Montreal Impact. We didn't even have that great a squad, but the Whalers were stacked. We hated each other. JHS brought it to a level that frankly couldn't exist on the site as it was. That's both good and bad, in all reality. But anyway, I'm guessing fischermann is a new guy (last name = username, easy tell, nothing wrong with it), and he's doing the needful, as prominent English businessmen would say. He's right on par with respect to OGR with his counterparts (impressive as a D-man, see above when that wasn't the case), and he produced quite a bit in fantasy. Let's see the momentum continue for this young Seattle prospect - with abundant opportunities to start early.

11. Rage

Eddie Kastrba - D Kraken

GCoolFactor: -1.949
GCF Rank: 33
Kastrba is another one I don't know - you shouldn't be surprised by now that I don't know many people. Honestly, blame Discord. It took out a lot of really unsettling interactions here on the site, but it also took out teams intermingling to a certain extent. Granted, I got ripped on 30 seasons ago for saying this as well, so whatever. Where Kastrba really loses GCF is his DGR, which was a pretty low 53 on the year - and then if you factor in that most defensemen have a higher DGR than OGR, he's almost getting double-dinged for a less-than-stellar year fulfilling his particular role. I blame Carolina management, and thus, he's a Manhattan Rage now. Prove 'em wrong, Eddie.

12. Argonauts

Willie Miller - G Battleborn

GCoolFactor: N/A
GCF Rank: N/A
Yeah he's a goalie, so

13. Forge

Conner Snooks - LW Battleborn

GCoolFactor: -3.592
GCF Rank: 39
Snooks is almost in a similar situation to Kastrba above, only from the offensive side. He had a rather weak OGR on the season, and that got him twice when going up against the top forwards of the class. But again, this is a Forge pick that can afford to go beyond such numbers and really look at the player. I happen to know a lot of intense scouting was done from that perspective, so I'm sure it's a good fit. Also - Snooks had a horrible takeaway ratio (3:24), which really took him to the bottom of this ranking system. That's something that'll even out with time - again, it's really all a crapshoot anyway.

14. Monarchs

Patya Perevalov - RW Kraken

GCoolFactor: -1.654
GCF Rank: 32
Hey, Minnesota's a team. I almost forgot! Anyway, they select Perevalov with pick 14, and for what seems like the 12th time I've been completely off when it comes to predicting these picks with GCF rankings. Only slightly negative, it's largely due to being just-around-center in nearly every category. In fact, the OGR had a z-score of 0.09, which is pretty much exactly the mean. Now, would you want a guy performing around the middle of the class with your first-round pick? I guess I'll get to that toward the bottom. But another Kraken player meaning they do know the sim by now thanks to that war room wouldn't be a bad pickup by Gibbles and Co.

15.

Big Newff - RW Timber

GCoolFactor: 5.453
GCF Rank: 2
When I saw the Steelhawks forgot to post the signing of GCF #2 Big Newff like Big Dummies, I thought - no. There's no way they'd draft Nour first only to steal the second coolest guy in the draft AND THEN NOT PUBLICLY SIGN HIM IN TIME. Holy fucking shit, you're just toying with us all now, Hamilton. But anyway, Newff is a full standard deviation above the mean in every category. He isn't lighting it up in any one spot - it's a very evenly lit room. Hard to point out anything that wouldn't make it sound like I'm writing 300 words about JUST him. Just a great pick. Way to make us all look at his name again, Hamilton. Really.

16. Steelhawks

Jay Cue - C Timber

GCoolFactor: -0.811
GCF Rank: 25
And then Jay Cue, who was perhaps the most collaterally damaged of the three picks Hamilton didn't have the wherewithal to sign on time in front of everyone on the forum like actual fucking adults, is a perfectly great center in his own right. Again, by now we've seen this pattern: although his total GCF is negative, it isn't too negative. If we take a closer look, he loses a full point in fantasy production (a crapshoot at the dot for Maine), and gains a full point in TPE. So in the interest of Hamilton, they're looking for not only people who wouldn't mind being at the center or just-off-center of a gigantic controversy causing someone to post an ACTUAL poll about the owners seceding or some bullshit like that. They wanted a guy who's earning more than the class and at a sustainable rate. And that guy's Jay Cue.

17. Inferno

Towelie - RW Armada

GCoolFactor: N/A
GCF Rank: N/A
I honestly don't know how Towelie didn't make the GCF ranking. This is kinda like an MTSU or UCF (though not so much this decade) situation - they're GOOD, just technically not on the radar of the ranking system, so not getting the attention he probably deserves. Y'know, with the quick timing of another expansion, that's sort of like the Inferno in general. Solid pick.

18. Dragons

Duncan Mackenzie - RW Knights

GCoolFactor: 0.322
GCF Rank: 19
The Dragons made a lot of picks, didn't they? And they get back into the positives from the GCF side of things with Duncan Mackenzie, perhaps the most United Kingdom sounding name of the whole lot of draftees. The Knights' right winger hopes to make a lot of noise in his sophomore campaign, as he's been quietly above the average of this S61 top 40 in pretty much every category. The rating is there, so while the points aren't there now, they certainly will be should his build hold up.

19. Rage

Clem Fandango - D Falcons

GCoolFactor: 0.594
GCF Rank: 16
Hey, way to go, Detroit! You got someone drafted in the first round. Yaaaay! Clem is a solid pick, too. UberBJ is earning at an insanely high rate, 1.30 standard deviations above this group's mean. Now simple math would tell you that means he's negative somewhere else, and that's true - his defensive rating bit him in the ass twice here, much like some people who got drafted ahead of him. However, he more than makes up for those negatives (again, math) with a huge output in fantasy points! If there was SMJHL fantasy, this would be a high pick for next season [and the one after] for sure, especially on a team like Detroit.

20.

Max Manning - C Raptors

GCoolFactor: -1.513
GCF Rank: 30
Rounding out the first round was Raptors center Max Manning. What he does not have in TPE or takeaways, he makes up for slightly in his defensive rating. Something to build on for the future, and the Argonauts get another solid pick.

For clarity, and in case you're looking for a particular player (yourself, perhaps?) here are the top 40 rankings by player name:
1. Leons Briedis (6.497)
2. Big Newff (5.453)
3. Conner Tanner (5.016)
4. Jamal Nightingale (4.840)
5. Joe Burrow (4.160)
6. Ahlo Kysoka (3.774)
7. Adelie de Pengu (3.604)
8. Melvin Majesik-Moose (2.977)
9. Sean Stevenson III (2.921)
10. Archangelo Scaradog Jr. (1.860)
11. Jannik Nordstern (1.722)
12. Samuel Kjellsson (1.565)
13. Luka Kovacsova (0.838)
14. Sebastian Weiss (0.744)
15. Landon Fischermann (0.674)
16. Clem Fandango (0.594)
17. Grogu Mandosson (0.482)
18. Tomas Zadina (0.364)
19. Duncan Mackenzie (0.332)
--------ZERO LINE--------
20. Patrice Bergeron Jr. (-0.042)
21. Hans Graf (-0.338)
22. Konstantin Selich (-0.530)
23. Donald Jr Trump (-0.586)
24. Vincent Fox (-0.648)
25. Jay Cue (-0.811)
26. Sam Stone (-0.812)
27. Atticus Hale (-0.851)
28. Wing Wang (-0.875)
29. Björn Viggosson (-1.403)
30. Max Manning (-1.523)
31. Spicy MacHaggis (-1.548)
32. Patya Perevalov (-1.654)
33. Eddie Kastrba (-1.949)
34. Petr Svoboda (-1.986)
35. Darwin Koff (-2.397)
36. Giannis Kroustis (-2.703)
37. Gabe-Gooney-Waters Harrak (-3.179)
38. Scott Thorn (-3.546)
39. Conner Snooks (-3.592)
40. Smailliw Edac (-6.694)
41. Kayden Pale (-10.761)

So what have we learned? If you're saying "absolutely fucking nothing", you're pretty much there. Basically, with the state of the league as it is now, even teams desperately rebuilding with a lot of picks can ignore things like in-sim performance and, even, to a certain extent, TPE. They're going more for people who will fit in the locker room. And that's generally a good thing!

I might continue doing this, but I might not. My kid will be about 6 months by the next time this rolls around so hopefully I'm not just typing like a madman while she's crying about her first teeth coming in. As exciting as it is, holy shit, it's a lot. I can't wait until she crushes all of you in S100.

Lobbanet · 08-22-2021, 05:20 AM

interesting stuff

monochroma · 08-22-2021, 06:19 AM

yoooo

academydropout · 08-22-2021, 07:22 AM

Fascinating ?

the5urreal · 08-22-2021, 10:51 AM

Gotta think my update not having gone through made me so uncool, but maybe I'm just lying to myself and I'm pretty uncool?

***bluesfan55*** · 08-22-2021, 01:30 PM

big newff? more like big stud

ty to @High Stick King @EvilAllBran and @Ragnar for the sigs

GCool · 08-22-2021, 06:07 PM

08-22-2021, 10:51 AMthe5urreal Wrote: Gotta think my update not having gone through made me so uncool, but maybe I'm just lying to myself and I'm pretty uncool?

If it was a 15+ point update, perhaps. I am not my computer and can’t look at the standard deviation, but it was a pretty wide range since it’s 40 players.

Thanks for the feedback everyone else, I hope to write more tomorrow or Tuesday.

the5urreal · 08-23-2021, 12:13 AM

08-22-2021, 06:07 PMGCool Wrote:
08-22-2021, 10:51 AMthe5urreal Wrote: Gotta think my update not having gone through made me so uncool, but maybe I'm just lying to myself and I'm pretty uncool?

If it was a 15+ point update, perhaps. I am not my computer and can’t look at the standard deviation, but it was a pretty wide range since it’s 40 players.

Thanks for the feedback everyone else, I hope to write more tomorrow or Tuesday.

It was a 65 point update. I didn't do fantasy either so I'm sure that contributed. Either way, good stuff!

GCool · 08-23-2021, 08:39 AM

08-23-2021, 12:13 AMthe5urreal Wrote:
08-22-2021, 06:07 PMGCool Wrote: If it was a 15+ point update, perhaps. I am not my computer and can’t look at the standard deviation, but it was a pretty wide range since it’s 40 players.

Thanks for the feedback everyone else, I hope to write more tomorrow or Tuesday.

It was a 65 point update. I didn't do fantasy either so I'm sure that contributed. Either way, good stuff!

Oh yup, that'd do it. Lol. I'd re-run if it were a simple script, unfortunately I have to copy/paste values from multiple places.

Also, the fantasy z-score is from fantasy points scored by your player last season. It has nothing to do with participating in the fantasy league. Smile

the5urreal · 08-23-2021, 08:47 AM

08-23-2021, 08:39 AMGCool Wrote:
08-23-2021, 12:13 AMthe5urreal Wrote: It was a 65 point update. I didn't do fantasy either so I'm sure that contributed. Either way, good stuff!

Oh yup, that'd do it. Lol. I'd re-run if it were a simple script, unfortunately I have to copy/paste values from multiple places.

Also, the fantasy z-score is from fantasy points scored by your player last season. It has nothing to do with participating in the fantasy league.

Don't worry about it! I know how tedious that can be. And good to know about fantasy Smile

Appreciate the effort! I love stuff like this.

GCool · 08-23-2021, 08:01 PM

All done! :D

DeletedAtUserRequest · 08-23-2021, 08:08 PM

+1

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