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(GRADED) Deep Dive #1 - Goalies and the S61 SMJHL Draft
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(This post was last modified: 09-08-2021, 06:21 AM by Opera_Phantom.)

I always should start with the disclaimer that I know very little about hockey so I’m going to do my best to go as deep as possible but may not showcase the expertise others do.
When I created as a goalkeeper one of the things I got told was that unless I was going to be a “super max” earner that I probably would never make the majors. Apparently there are loads of good users player goalie that never make the majors because there just aren’t spots for them – think being a quarterback in the ISFL I guess. As a result of oversaturation of goalies – or what I assume is due to the oversaturation of the position – great users who play goalie fall in the draft, especially if they aren’t willing to switch. In the S61 SMJHL draft an incredible SHL user, Orbiting Death, fell to 25th overall in part due to being a goalie. Currently OD sits at 9th overall in total TPE for the class at 245. The next highest goalie in the class currently is Brick Wall (user brickwall35). He sits at 19th overall in the class for total TPE at 238 but fell to the Great Falls Grizzlies at 38th overall in the draft. His draft position is literally double his TPE rank.
 
The plight of goalies got me pretty interested in looking at the top picks in the draft and why they went where they did. I’m going to try to give a bit of context to the picks – as much as I can for my limited knowledge – and also give a bit of an explanation on why I think a goalie wasn’t considered at that pick.
 
1.      Timber Maine Timber – Jesper Aittokallio – JayWhy
Position: C
Current TPE: 248
Class TPE Rank: 3rd
 
Going into the draft the Timber had two centers currently on their roster – Alexis Paquette and Jay Cue. They also drafted Aleksei Volkov (user nomadicalec, 207 TPE) 53rd overall. That hasn’t stopped Aittokallio from stepping in and playing the second most of any center currently on roster – playing 19 total games with 310 total minutes on the ice. Jay Cue leads the Timber’s centers with 358 minutes on the ice. Paquette has the third most with 250 total minutes on the ice. Aittokallio is closer to leading the Timber’s centers in minutes on the ice than he is falling to third place. That’s an incredible feat and showcases what Maine thinks of their first overall pick.
 
While on the ice, Aittokallio has played well. For centers, he is second on the team in goals with four on the season, only one behind Jay Cue’s team leading five. For centers, however, he leads the team in goals for per 60 minutes with 3.8 – a full goal ahead of Jay Cue’s 2.8. This might be a by-product of playing a smidge less, but its an incredible feat to be that much farther ahead. His Corsi For % is 47.2% which falls into the range of being a good player but is  bit off Jay Cue’s 55%. They’ve both played well this season.
 
The Timber already roster three goal keepers – Bloody Oath, Rusty Remao, and Liam Bell. Oath getsthe majority of the playtime with 824 total minutes played, over double Remao’s 306 total minutes played. Oath is a S59 player with 429 TPE – a far cry from the top of his class which has surpassed 800 TPE – but good enough to be a solid junior player and be run out consistently.
 
2.      Armada Anchorage Armada – Paul Koivu – Briedaqueduc
Position: LW
Current TPE: 244
Class TPE Rank: 10th
 
Being 10th in the class but going 2nd overall may make it seem like Koivu was a bit of a reach, however, he’s only 12 TPE behind the top of the class. The Armada roster four right wings currently and four left wings. Of those left wings, two were taken in the S61 SMJHL draft. Koivu was taken second overall obviously but the Armada double dipped on wings in the first round when they took Spack Jarrow 13th overall. Jarrow is currently 7th in the class for total TPE at 245 – so only 1 measly TPE ahead of Koivu. The Armada had all four right wings on their roster headed into the draft, so it looks like they needed to revamp the left side of their attack this season.
 
Koivu has played the second least minutes of the Armada’s left wings with 308 total. Jarrow leads the team with 329, only one ahead of second place Guy Fieri who has 329. Koivu has struggled to find the back of the net with only six goals and a 3% shot % - a far cry from Fieri’s six goals and 10.3% shot % and Jarrow’s 6 goals and 12.5% shot %. Koivu lags behind both in total fights as well – meaning he isn’t even fulfilling the role of an enforcer for the Armada. Advanced analytics are a bit kinder to Koivu, however. He’s third on the team in terms of left wings for Corsi For % with 61.3% - falling into that nice “elite” tier of players who break the 60% mark. Jarrow, however, lags quite a bit hehind with a 52.4% Corsi For %.
 
The Armada might have been a team who should have considered a goalie this draft, however. Toejam Picker, a S60 player, is inactive with 155 TPE – a mark multiple goalies in this draft had already passed by draft time. He is the Armada’s primary goalie and has played 879 total minutes for them this season. Their backup, Bean Gamble, is a S58 player who is inactive with 155 TPE. You have to wonder if the Armada would have been well served to snag a goalie earlier in this draft – even if they didn’t want to use the second overall pick on one. After their two first round picks they didn’t make a selection again until the 5th round at 68th overall. At that point my player, Skating Dino, had already done off the board at 63rd overall – so they just missed out. At 68th overall they did take a goalie – Ted Linday – who is 155 TPE and hasn’t played a minute for them and hasn’t been on the website in close to a month. They just missed what looks to be the active last goalie selected at 63rd overall in Skating Dino. Would it have been smart to potentially “reach” and take one at 13th overall when they took Jarrow? Maybe. There are a handful of stud goalies in this draft who would have already outpaced their current options.


1148 words total.
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Approved!

+5 TPE @iStegosauruz
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