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S61 SMJHL Playoff Preview
#1

As the regular season comes to an end, SMJHL action certainly does not with the playoffs right around the corner. Of the 14 teams that began the season, 12 continue on after the Nevada Battleborn and the Maine Timbers find themselves eliminated. Maine would probably consider themselves very unlucky to be in this situation, as they finished 8th in the overall standings and are only missing out thanks to their strong division. Meanwhile, last placed Detroit and Anaheim will get to participate in this year’s playoffs, meaning there will be some interesting matchups ahead of us and potentially a chance for an upset somewhere. With that being said, I wanted to take a look into the teams that did make it, and see how the first round matchups shakeup.


Kelowna Knights vs. Regina Elk
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The Kelowna Knights had a very average season, which actually bodes very well for their young core as they progress through their rebuild. 


Offense: Kelowna’s forwards combine for an average of 272 TPE, with only Anaheim ranking lower in this category. Their offense was driven largely by their first line of Sasturo Gojo, Duncan Mackenzie, and Petr Svoboda. This line provided about 30% of Kelowna’s 193 goals this season, which puts them right in the middle of the table for goals.


Defense: The Knight’s defense groups ranks a little higher than their forwards with an average of 287 TPE. Their goals against of 203 once again puts them around the middle of the league.


Goaltending: Lord Skrolk played a majority of Kelowna’s games this year and will likely be the starter for the playoffs. At 226 TPE he ranks lower than most goaltenders in these playoffs, but he actually had a very good season this year. His save percentage of .913% puts him close to the top of the league, and his GAA of 2.94 is not too shabby either.


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One of the new expansion teams this year, the Elk had a tough season, finishing third last among playoff teams. With that being said, this is another young team that will look to establish itself in this league by causing problems for teams in the playoffs.


Offense: Regina’s forward group ranks only slightly above Kelowna’s at 278 TPE. Their offense was led by captain Daud Ramza, who became their leading point scorer by a 12 point margin, becoming the first Elk sent to the All-Star game. Despite his impressive season, the team scored a mere 167 goals this year. Scoring depth continues to be an issue for the team as many of their players are still early in their careers and continue to develop.


Defense: Here, the Elk are quite a bit worse than the Knights, as their defense sits at an average TPE of 224. They allowed a dismal 260 goals this season, meaning this is an area where they will have to improve if they want to make a splash in the playoffs.


Goaltending: Although Conner McLavish played 30 games, make no mistake that the starter for Regina will be none other than Rebecca Montagne. After a great start, Montagne cooled off a bit as the season progressed, but still ended with some respectable numbers for a team that struggles on defense.


Matchup: This will be an intriguing series to watch, as Kelowna and Regina are two young teams looking to make a splash. The season series between these teams ended at a 3-3 tie, and almost every game was a close one. Kelowna looks to move on from a poor showing in S60, and a round 1 win would mean a lot to a team looking to exit a rebuild. The Knights will be the favourites here, but it might be a close one.



Great Falls Grizzlies vs. St. Louis Scarecrows
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The second expansion team this year, the Grizzlies had a much better season than Regina, falling just short of .500. Great Falls look like a very well-rounded team with no great strengths or weaknesses.


Offense: Their average of 322 TPE puts the Grizzlies at 7th amongst playoff teams. The team seems to have a decent amount of scoring depth, and is led by Janis Lux, who had an outstanding season, scoring 20 goals with 39 assists for a total of 59 points. The team scored 202 goals this year, once again ranking 7th among playoff teams.


Defense: On defense, the team also ranks 7th, with 313 average TPE. The team did allow a few more goals than they maybe would have wanted at 229, but this is still not too bad for an expansion side. Of note, rookie Vadim Askerov scored 28 points despite playing in only 49 games. Also Jonathon Hagan and Arturs Tumovs finished tied for 2nd in blocks at 188.


Goaltending: Rookie goaltender Brick Wall will be the presumed starter for the Grizzlies in the playoffs, as he played a league-leading 58 games this year. 


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St. Louis seems to have had a much worse season than expected. They have some good players, and an obvious strength at defense, but they still had a rather mediocre year. If they can turn it on in the playoffs, they could be a headache for teams that finished higher than them.


Offense: Compared to the rest of their team, their forwards are easily their biggest weakness. Their 307 average TPE is not bad, but ranks them lower than the Grizzlies. They also scored the second fewest goals this year, and 48 fewer than their opponents. Further, only Lebron Brady managed to crack the 40 point mark for them.


Defense: On paper, the Scarecrows have the best defense in the league, at an average TPE of 387. Despite this, they still allowed 207 goals, which ranks 8th of 12 playoff teams. They can be expected to perform much better in this area in the playoffs if they can live up to their expectations. Defenseman Ethan Bouchard finished second in team scoring, while Mars Stanton blocked 178 shots, so look for these two to lead the charge.


Goaltending: another area of strength, both of St. Louis’ goalies had impressive seasons. Look for veteran Iorek Byrnison to take the crease when the playoffs start.


Matchup: While the Grizzlies look to be an average team in just about every category, the Scarecrows will look to their defense to try and take them to the next round. The former comes in as the higher seed but the latter team is better on paper. The season series for these two teams also ended tied at 3-3, so look for this matchup to be very close in the playoffs as well.


Anchorage Armada vs. Anaheim Outlaws
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Anchorage is a team that has enjoyed a lot of success in their past, as they seem to consistently be at the top of the league. This year was a slight step back, but they are still a formidable team that could make it far in the playoffs.


Offense: An average TPE of 331 puts them in the top half of the league on offense, and so does their 209 goals scored this season. Not the best forward group in the league but a good one, to be sure. This is a team with some good depth, and a couple of pure goal scorers on their right wing.


Defense: Despite a very middling TPE average of 320, this team excelled at preventing opponents from scoring on them this year. Amongst teams in the first round, the Armada actually allowed the fewest goals. All of this in spite of them having a literal cup of noodles leading their defensemen amongst points this season.


Goaltending: An amazing season from Dominik Tretyak means Anchorage will have some stability in goal in this series. An impressive 1.99 GAA ranks as best in the league.


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The Outlaws are a team that had decided to tear it all down in the last offseason, and their record reflects this. Amazingly, they managed to avoid finishing last, but getting more than one win in this series might prove to be difficult for another very young roster.


Offense: I’ll start off with this: Anaheim ranks dead last in almost every stat I’ve looked at, and this includes their average forward TPE of 244. No player scored more than 30 points in a season where the team only managed a league worst 136 goals for. 


Defense: Anaheim’s defense is somehow worse than their offense at 194 TPE. They also allowed a league high of 283 goals, resulting in a goal differential of -147. One bright spot is rookie Borje Samuelsson, who was tied for a team lead of 30 points this season.


Goaltending: This is the one area where the Outlaws do not rank deadlast. In fact, their goaltender Senji Seteki is one of the few in these playoffs who is capped out at 425 TPE. Despite a rough looking defense, Seteki managed some very average stats.


Matchup: Anchorage swept the season series 4-0, and on paper it looks like the playoffs will be more of the same.


Québec Citadelles vs. Detroit Falcons
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This is a team that was carried by their top end players, some of which had record breaking performances. With that being said, their depth should not be overlooked, and this is a team that should be competing for the cup.


Offense: 327 TPE for their forwards is very average. 49 goals for forward Greyson Cooper, however, is not. This one player scored 18% of Québec’s 261 goals. They also had seven of their forwards break 40 points, so look for this team to continue to create nightmares for opposing goalies in these playoffs.


Defense: 304 TPE is also rather average, but the team also managed to overperform here as they only allowed 181 goals against, good for 4th lowest in the league. Kappa Kappa was almost a point per game at 63 points on the season, and will likely be in discussion for defenseman of the year.


Goaltending: Another potential MVP candidate, Nor Dekes will look to continue to be a brick wall for this team. 41 wins and 6 shutouts puts him second league wide in those stats.


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The last team in this preview, the Detroit Falcons also finished last in the league, somehow lower than Anaheim. Still, there were a few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing year for them.


Offense: An average TPE of 274 puts them third from the bottom among playoff teams, and their 177 goals puts them in fourth last. Their top line still managed to all crack 40 points, but their depth here has been a major issue this season. Their entire bottom 6 scored fewer than 20 points, while some remained in the single digits.


Defense: On paper, this team has the second worst defense in the playoffs at 214 TPE. They did slightly better than that in the season where they conceded fewer goals than three other playoff teams. Rookie Dirty Boots also scored an impressive 36 points.


Goaltending: This is probably Detroit’s biggest strength, and an area they will have to rely on if they want to deny Québec’s incredible offense. Hugh Jass was one of the better goalies in the league this season, and he is likely why Detroit conceded fewer goals than expected.


Matchup: Québec is the obvious favourite in this series, as they swept the season series and performed better in all positions. If Hugh Jass can continue his excellence in net, Detroit stands a chance at taking some games in this series, but it will be a tough task for them to reach the next round.


All that said, it is clear to me that there are some very interesting matchups in the first round of the playoffs. I know I, for one, will be looking forward to how they all play out.

(1969 words)

PanthersPanthersPanthersPanthers


KnightsKnightsKnightsKnights


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#2

Great work!





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