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***Sburbine*** · 10-20-2021, 07:13 PM

For my x2 draft media I wanted to take a deep dive into the numbers to see what makes Hamilton the best team and how every other team should be looking at the draft and planning their future teams to try and better compete. This media is based on skaters only because goalies are much harder to analyze and are much more dependent on the team around them. People like to joke on the forums that goalies don’t matter and honestly Hamilton’s 11-0-1 155 TPE backup says a lot. It's also only based on numbers from season 61, it's very possible that you plug in numbers from past seasons and get different results. In order to make a top team, of course a high TPE is important and having high earning long term players makes teams better and it's hard to keep players motivated when your team is bad; that's mostly where good scouting comes into the equation. You need to be able to draft motivated, active users that will strive to keep earning and listen to their GM, not an easy task for sure but the first step in having a team be able to compete. The difference I'm looking at though is the fact that Hamilton has similar TPE to all the other top teams so how are they a whole 15 points ahead of the second place team with an insane 57 - 8 - 1 record, a feat that seems impossible? There must be some way the lower ranking, lower TPE teams can improve and eventually compete for the cup in order to make the league more balanced. I’m hoping a dive into the numbers will shed some light on this and help guide the rest of the teams on how they can make FHM work for them like it does for Hamilton. I don’t necessarily want to “solve” FHM because honestly that takes some of the fun out of it but I at least want to try and level the playing field a little bit so other teams can have their shot at glory because having HAM win most of the cups is also pretty boring. I do want to preface this whole media piece with the fact that I’ve never GMed before, I’ve only been in the league for a month and a half, and I don’t even own a copy of FHM so all of this could be useless but it is worth a shot to be able to pay for some training.

At first glance of Hamilton's attributes all players both defense and offense seem to have very similar builds. All players have between a 15 and a 20 in 10 of the 23 available attributes. These ten are getting open, passing, puckhandling, offensive read, checking, stick checking, defensive read, balance, stamina, and strength. This could be a product of them having fairly high TPE in general but we'll see if these attributes end up being the most important through my data analysis of all the teams.

For the first part of this piece I want to look at what attributes teams need the most to be good and what attributes seem to be a waste of TPE. To do this, I took all of the attribute data for each team from the index and added up all of the players numbers for each individual attribute, something I'll call the team's attribute score. I did this for every team and every possible attribute and combined the scores into one sheet shown below, TOT being the sum of all of a single team's attribute scores.

[Image: AyABt39.png]

Next I took these attribute scores and compared how each team ranked for each attribute to the overall points rankings. Basically I ranked teams from 1 to 20 for each individual attribute and found the difference between that and the overall points rankings and added up the difference to find how well that attribute contributes to overall points rankings; this sum I will call the attribute ranking number. The higher the number, the worse the attribute contributes to overall point rankings and the lower the number the better. The highest possible being 200 and the lowest being 0. To try and put it simply, the better teams have more of the attributes that have low attribute ranking numbers than bad teams. I then took these attribute ranking numbers and sorted them from lowest to highest to see what the best and worst attributes are in terms of how well they relate to overall points rankings. This calculation is shown below.

[Image: K45BpFT.png]

According to this ranking, puckhandling is the best stat out of all of them with a 30 attribute ranking number. The top three ranked teams also have the top three highest puckhandling attribute score. The difference in the highest puckhandling attribute score and the lowest was 276 to 234 or a full 40 points away. This is a lot considering how expensive attributes get at higher levels. In second place was another offensive stat, getting open, with a score of 36. Interestingly, Hamilton only has the fourth highest getting open attribute score with a 263. The difference between first and last was from a 271 in Buffalo to a 218 in Winnipeg, a huge 53 point jump. In fact WPG is a full 10 points behind MAN at second lowest. The next two are the highest rated physical attributes with strength and balance with scores of 38 and 44 respectively. HAM has the highest strength out of all the teams while HAM and BUF are tied for the highest balance. Next up is the first defensive attribute, checking at 46. HAM leads this attribute as well, with MAN being the lowest. After that are two more offensive categories with passing at 48 and offensive read at 52, it seems like FHM favors offense since so far there have been four offensive stats and only one defensive stat. The best teams in the league seem to have a lot of these offensive stats even with their defensive players, you can't get scored on if you're constantly scoring goals I guess. After that there are 2 defensive attributes, defensive read at 54 and stick checking at 62. A lot of top offensive players seem to also have high attribute scores for these top defensive categories as well. After that is a very interesting one, the total attribute score at 66. The 10th most important attribute is the total amount of attribute points a team has and HAM even has only the 11th highest total attribute score. This shows just how important having the attributes in the right places is. You don't need everyone at 2000 TPE to win (it certainly helps of course), you need to have TPE in the right attributes. Upgrading attributes becomes so expensive at high TPE, after a certain point a difference between a few hundred TPE doesn't affect the skill of the player all that much. After that is shooting accuracy at 86 and shooting range at 92, it’s pretty interesting that both shooting stats are middle of the pack, it seems that being able to get and hold onto the puck is more important. Hitting and acceleration are next at 100, speed at 120, and screening at 130. After this the rankings start getting a little weird because next is bravery at 130, HAM has the third lowest bravery and it is considered a mystery stat because no one really knows if it does anything so everyone keeps some just in case. After that is fighting at 132 which is probably the most useless stat, you’re certainly not scoring goals when you’re out with a five minute fighting major but according to this there are five stats that are less helpful. I think it’s this high up because no one has more than 94 and the difference between the highest and lowest is only 20. There is no way the last five stats are actually less helpful than fighting. After that is positioning at 138, faceoffs at 142, shot blocking and aggression at 152, and lastly agility at 156. Shot blocking isn’t much of a surprise since only the bottom teams actually need it. Agility is definitely a surprise for last place, is it actually the worst stat? I doubt it but a lot of the top teams don’t seem to focus on it.

That rounds out the data analysis to try and find out what attributes seem to make a good team and where other teams should focus. For the second part I’ll take a look at the draft and talk about how each team should draft in order to compete better in the future. I do want to say that drafting is mostly about the user because a 2000 TPE player can have much different attributes than a 300 TPE player but having a player start off with similar stats to what you’re looking for can help you build the player into what you need.

Winnipeg Aurora

The Aurora did not have a good season 61, with only 3 wins they were dead last. They are certainly in rebuild mode and that’s good because they have mostly a blank canvas in order to make a super team. With the second and fourth pics in the S62 draft they have the ability to pick highly active players that they can start to rebuild around. Unfortunately for them, they are near the bottom in all of the "important" attributes and are the best team for both fighting and aggression. This makes sense because the attribute scores were based on team rankings so the last place team is likely to show it has the worst stats. Thankfully they aren't wasting too much TPE on the number one spot for fighting and aggression, two stats most people agree are useless, so they have plenty of room to morph their team into one that can score goals. They need to draft players like Aksel Fiske and Eddie Creller who both have very active users who's stat are a good building block for what they need to do. Askel currently has a 14 getting open and 13 puckhandling while Eddie has a 14 getting open and 13 puckhandling, both of which will help raise up those stats for Winnipeg if they develop them the same way. For defense they should pick up players like Cup Noodles or Mikko Rashford, both are newer but still very active users that would be great picks to rebuild a team behind with stats close to what they'll need to improve. Being the worst team in the league they also need to improve their defensive stats such as checking and defensive read because they have some of the lowest in the league, players to help with this are Jay O’Neil (my character) and Ben Jammin. The GMs definitely have their work cut out for them.

Manhattan Rage
The Rage are in a similar position than Winnipeg, they did end up having a slightly better season but they are also in full rebuild mode. Manhattan is actually even more of a blank slate to rebuild from than Winnipeg as they have the lowest total attribute score in the league. They don’t have the same uselessly high fighting and aggression attribute scores that Winnipeg has making it a little easier to rebuild, they just need time to do it. Manhattan needs to go into this draft focusing on the user and not the player, since they have a good base to build on and can mold players to what they need. I know Manhattan drafted a number of defenders last year so they’ll probably be more focused on picking up forwards in this draft. I can see them picking Paul Koivu 1OA because they are a long time user who is likely to stay active. JayWhy has been the Manhattan GM for a long time and he has had success doing it so I’m sure he has a rebuild plan to try and compete again in the near future. But to be honest, I think most of the season 62 rookie discord hopes he picks Ben Jammin because those two need to get a room.

Montreal Patriotes

The Patriotes are a fairly new expansion team so it’s hard to really hate on them. It doesn’t show much hope with the recent departure of their head GM and the trading away of his inactive player but as an expansion team they’ll definitely need more time to build up and become competitive. I’m all here for Inf1d3l cleaning house and making the team how he wants and I hope it works. They are tied for first with shooting range but near the bottom with other offensive stats. They need to focus on forwards with high puckhandling, getting open and offensive read while avoiding shooting range at all costs. Honestly someone like Askel Fiske would fit perfectly in this team but I doubt they fall enough in the draft. They are also pretty middle of the pack in defensive stats so they don’t really need to pick up any defensive players. I hope the new GM good luck in the draft after being thrust into it like this. I am also a NE Patriots fan, and I’m sure they hate the comparison but I’m rooting for both.

New Orleans Specters

Next is the Specters who interestingly enough have the highest screening attribute score in the league. At 190, they are a whole 18 attribute score above the second place team in the 17th best stat according to my calculations. A stat that the best team in the league doesn’t care about at all and are actually in last place in the league at a whole 65 attribute score behind the Spectors. This high screening seem almost intentional, maybe an experiment gone wrong since they are still one of the worst teams in the league. They need to draft people with a high puckhandling and getting open, players like Viktor Krunk and Eddie Creller will work very well in their organization as well. Just please stop increasing your screening, what good is screening when your team isn’t good enough to get shots close to the net. They have 9 players with at least a 15 screening and ended up with a minus -95 goal differential, something is definitely wrong here. Unfortunately for them, they traded their fourth overall pick to Winnipeg so it might take a little longer to fully rebuild.

San Francisco Pride

The San Fransisco Pride seem to have a few top players who have a good +/- despite the fact that the team was in the lower half of the league. They actually ended up at a plus one goal differential despite ending with a 28 - 31 - 7 record, it seems like they’ve been pretty unlucky this season. Their main struggle is that they are second in the league for bravery, which is probably a completely useless stat. They seem to be in pretty good shape for the future though, with many of their attribute stats in the middle of the league. They need to draft players who they can develop to have high stats in the top five attributes that I mentioned early and there doesn’t seem to be any one stat they need to focus on. With the 5 OA pick, they’re in good shape to get someone good and hopefully they can get more luck next year to better compete.

Minnesota Monarchs

The Monarchs have famously not won a playoff game in 8 seasons despite being a pretty solid team the whole time. With all the changes in GMs, I’m sure there’s a bit that will need to be done to finish rebuilding this team. They are near the bottom of the league in some key offensive stats such as getting open, passing and puckhandling which they need to work on this draft for the future team. One of the top prospects for them would be Yannick Svoboda who currently has a 12 getting open, a 15 passing and a 14 puckhandling. They are also near the bottom of the league in total attribute score so there is plenty of room to grow with the lowest fighting stat in the league. They seem to be doing better than the raw numbers suggest so maybe with a bit more rebuilding they can become a contender.

Seattle Argonauts

The Argonauts are blessed to have Beeg Yosh himself in their locker room and a team like that are destined for greatness. They have pretty middle of the pack attribute stats overall so they’ll need to work to keep their current players active and drafting new, active players. They can get away with drafting either forwards or defenseman to help them out in the future as long as they stay active. Hopefully Yosh’s impeccable scouting can get them to a spot where they are competing with an active, earning locker room. Yosh’s best career decision was clearly convincing Ham to draft me so maybe they can roll some of that talent over to the SHL draft. With their trading up to the 3OA pick, they clearly have someone in mind that they want and are looking to build up a better team.

Los Angeles Panthers

The Panthers seem to have taken all of the Pride’s luck, they went 31-29-6 with a -34 goal differential. They are plagued with having the highest bravery in the league, which is seemingly a waste of TPE. They need to work on improving the same top stats like the other teams on the lower half of the league. They didn’t seem to have too many stand out players last year and will need to try and up their scoring in the future. Just like Winnipeg and the Spectors, players like Jaeger Jones and Sconnie McHits will work very well in their organization to help improve some of their much needed attributes.

Atlanta Inferno

Like all of the other teams in the bottom half of the league, the Inferno need to raise their offensive stats in order to better compete and are pretty middle of the pack in all of them.They are also bottom of the league in both faceoffs and agility which according to these calculations is a good thing but need to boost stats such as getting open, puckhandling, and offensive read to try and be more competitive. They can draft my Berserkers boys Jeff Larrson, Tommy Tightpants, and Alexander Mackenzie, all well balanced forwards who will stay active and earning long term so the team can continue to rebuild.

Philadelphia Forge

The Forge are another middle of the pack team, which there are quite a few in the league, who could do with a general TPE boost to help them push their way into the upper half of the league. Star left winger First-Name Last-Name led the team with 58 points, with a few other forwards right behind them in terms of production. Most of the Forge’s attribute are very middle of the road but where they seem to need the most improvement is on offensive read and strength where they are in 15th place for both. A good rookie candidate for them to pick up would be Akashi SixNine Jr. who has a 13 offensive read and 14 strength.

Toronto North Stars

It’s hard to look at the North Star’s stats and not think they should be a better team. They are second in total attribute score, sixth in Getting open, seventh in puckhandling, third in offensive read, 8th in checking, and sixth in defensive rating. These stats say that they shouldn’t be tenth in the league. The only stat they’re struggling a little bit is strength where they’re in tenth but that shouldn’t push them down in the ratings. They are invested heavily in some less important attributes such as being first in speed and second in aggression but all of these stats still had them finish the season with only a +12 goal differential, not enough to be near the top in the league. It could be up to coaching at that point, could be that their game lines don’t work well enough to win, could also be that they were just unlucky this season. They need to draft high strength, low speed defensemen to try and balance out their stats, Brady Bertrand at 15 strength is the best example of this.

Calgary Dragons

The Dragons seem to be in the opposite position as the North Stars in terms of attribute scores vs. actual success, they are in the lower half of the league in most of the big attribute categories and still ended up in ninth place. It could be further proof that these calculations don’t actually work as well as I would have hoped and it definitely helps show that there is something else at play for successful teams. It could also be blind FHM luck but the Dragons have been a good team for a number of seasons in a row. Their worst stat is definitely puckhandling where they are 16th in the league. Looking at the team stats every player on the Dragons last year gave the puck away more than they took it away so they definitely need to try and up their puckhandling. They ended up with only a +5 goal differential so there is certainly room to grow to try and get back to where they were a few seasons ago. There are a number of players in the draft class with a 14 puckhandling, for offense they should try and get Spack Jarrow and for defense they should go for Cup Noodle, both are also highly active users that will be good additions to their locker room.

Edmonton Blizzard

Edmonton ended up with the same point total as the Dragons but with a -12 goal differential for the season. Having a 36-28-2 record with that -12 goal differential tells me they had a lot of close wins to get where they are in the standings, they ended up with the opposite goal differential as the North Stars but with four more points. Their stats seem to fall in line with a team near the middle of the pack but they seem to be close to getting into the group of teams on top. Most of their attributes are in the middle of the league except for being last in aggression which is probably a good thing and being near the top in both shooting accuracy and range. This shooting accuracy doesn’t seem to be translating too many goals so they need to start focusing on other offensive stats such as getting open, puckhandling, and offensive read to try and balance everything out. For offense players like Aksel Fiske and Jeff Larrson can both work very well for them and on defense, players like Mikko Rashford would fit into their line-up perfectly.

New England Wolfpack

We’re starting to get into the teams at the top of the league that both have good records and good goal differential. The Wolfpack ended the season with 78 points, four more than the Blizzard, and a +38 goal differential; this definitely shows that they had some bad luck this year and lost a number of close games. In fact they ended up losing 4 shootouts, something that frequently go either way and those four extra points would have brought them up one spot in the rankings. All of their offensive categories are around where they should be in order to be a good team but where they are suffering is on defense. The 193 goals against really isn’t that bad but a boost to their defense can still help them win and maybe go up a few places in the rankings. They are near the bottom of the league in both checking and defensive read and need to draft players who are already focusing on both attributes. They need to draft player like mine Jay O’Neil or Ben Jammin to try and boost their defense in the next few seasons, both players are near the top in both checking and defensive read.

Tampa Bay Barracuda

After ending the season with 81 points and a +37 goal differential, the Barracuda had a very similar season then the Wolfpack. No one on the Barracuda had a point per game showing they don’t really have any superstar players and their scoring is well distributed along a few of their lines. From a quick look at the Barracuda, they seem to be in good shape to win, that is until you find out they have the highest total attribute score in the league. This tells me that they’re currently wasting a ton of TPE on bad attributes which is making them only the sixth best team in the league when they have the potential for so much more. This bad TPE investment will eventually catch up with them when they can’t afford to sign their high TPE players to contracts. They are near the bottom of the league in both checking and defensive rating and near the top in shooting accuracy, they’re an offensive focused team which seems to be good enough for sixth place. They need to buff their defense stats and draft players such as Jay O’Neil and Ben Jammin, the same as the wolfpack, to try and even out their questionable TPE distribution.

Chicago Syndicate

We’re finally into the top five teams of the league, these are the teams that have been pretty consistently competing since the start of the FHM era. The Syndicate this season had an impressive four players go above a point per game and ended the season with a 42 - 23 - 1 record with a +96 goal differential. This record versus that impressive goal differential tells me that they probably should have won more games than they did and had some bad luck in a few games. They are first in the league in stamina which seems to be a middle of the road stat according to my rankings and they are last in the league in bravery, a stat everyone believes is useless. They really don’t seem to be wasting too much TPE and their trip to the final last season shows that. For all the important stats they seem to be in or close to the top five so they don’t need to improve on too much but with Gunnar Soderberg retiring at the end of next season their focus will be on a new forward to take their place. They would be good to draft someone like Aksel Fiske or Jeff Larsson if they are able to get them at their low draft position.

Buffalo Stampede

One year out of winning it all, the Sampede are still one of the top teams in the league with an impressive 46 - 16 - 4 record and a +117 goal differential. They ended up with an insane 30-1-2 record at home, I guess the fans were still really excited about last year’s cup. Steve Harrington lead the team in points with 78 and is a good leader on this team for the future. The Stampede are near the top in most of the important attributes, number 1 in both getting open and balance and number two for a few more. Where they are hurting is in shooting range where they are last in the league, they still don’t seem to struggle scoring goals too much but an increase in range can still help in the future. They need to focus on high shot range offensive defensemen to try and boost their stats to be a better team, player like Borje Samuelsson and Ka Chow would be good fits for the Sampede’s future.

Baltimore Platoon

At this point in the analysis, these teams have the best attributes because the model is based around how well they did. Baltimore ended up with 4 more points than the Stampede and had one of the best players in the league with Karl Krashwagen. The only attribute that they really need to work on is passing where they are eighth in the league. Their best bets would be either Yannick Svoboda or Borje Samuelsson, both of which have high passing and are active users. The Platoon really need to focus on keeping the players that they stay active and max earn and they’ll be in the finals in the next few seasons.

Texas Renegades

The Renegades didn’t have any standout candidates in terms of points last season but they still ended up in second place after Hamilton and made it to the finals before getting swept. The Renegades have very similar stats than Hamilton and it seems that the main difference between the two Hamilton knows what line combination and roles for each player generate the most wins. The only clear difference that I can really see is that Texas seems to be invested too much in shot blocking and not enough in hitting. Hitting isn't the most important but it's certainly better than shot blocking. They should also increase their balance and strength to get on the same level with Hamilton, even if they are still near the top of the league in both. It's difficult to see what will make the difference to let Texas actually beat them. They need to focus on drafting highly active players who they can shape how they want, which should be easy with this draft class.

Hamilton Steelhawks

The Steelhawks were far and away the best team last year, with a 57 - 8 - 1 record and a +174 goal differential there was no one even close. That’s a whole 15 points more than the second place Renegades who they swept in the final to easily win the cup. Looking at their stats, they are first in the league in puckhandling, checking, hitting, and strength, and they are in the top three in stickchecking, defensive rating and balance. This tells me that hitting is probably more important than the original data analysis let on and shooting range, shooting accuracy, and offensive read are less important. Teams need to use this Hamilton team as an example to become better and focus on the same attributes that they do because despite being only 11th in total attribute score, they beat everyone to win the cup.

trella · 10-20-2021, 07:15 PM

how bout i distribute my dick in yo mama

Thanks to @karey and @JSS for the sigs!

Former USA Fed Head, Carolina Kraken Co-GM, Tampa Bay Barracuda GM

trella · 10-20-2021, 07:16 PM

jk really awesome article man, you can tell a bunch of research went in and i love how you analyzed and interpreted the data instead of just dumping a spreadsheet

Thanks to @karey and @JSS for the sigs!

Former USA Fed Head, Carolina Kraken Co-GM, Tampa Bay Barracuda GM

**JamesT** · 10-20-2021, 07:30 PM

Quote:JayWhy has been the Manhattan GM for a long time and he has had success doing it so I’m sure he has a rebuild plan to try and compete again in the near future. But to be honest, I think most of the season 62 rookie discord hopes he picks Ben Jammin because those two need to get a room.

***Rotti*** · 10-20-2021, 08:54 PM

go birds

SlashACM · 10-21-2021, 12:35 AM

I'll screen u

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