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***Aleris*** · 11-29-2021, 11:41 AM

Swan Report Playoff Predictions

With about 15 games left in the season, the Great Eye of Sauron now turns to the playoffs. We’ll start first with the division leaders, who all seem to have comfy 10 point cushions (but don’t count on those). One thing of note about the top of the league, is that the top 10 teams of the league this year have a closer point difference (25 points between 10th Nevada and 1st place Anchorage) than the top 5 (28 points gap to 6th) is S61 and the top 3 in S60 (37 point gap to 4th). The league is very close this year and it does feel like we will more likely have a Four Star Cup Champion that isn’t our Regular Season Champion. So Division winners with 1st round bye are: Anchorage Armada, Newfoundland Berserkers, Carolina Kraken, and the Vancouver Whalers. No real surprises here. Colorado Raptors are close enough to unseat Newfoundland though.

That leaves us with our 1st round pairings if the Playoffs were to start today. The non-division winners would be seeded as follows:

1. Colorado (63 points) -2nd in Wollker - better Goal Difference
2. Maine (63 points) - 2nd in Ciarelli Division
3. Kelowna (62 points) - 3rd in Ciarelli Division
4. Quebec City (54 points) - 2nd in Mayfield Divsion
5. Great Falls (53 points) - 2nd in Bergen Division
6. Nevada (52 points) - 3rd in Bergen Division
7. Anaheim (37 points) - 3rd in Wollker Division
8. Regina (33 points) - 4th in Wollker Division
9. St. Louis (27 points) - 3rd in Mayfield Division
10. Detroit (12 points) - 4th in Mayfield DIvision

Now due to league structure, Wollker and Mayfield Divisions have 4 teams and the last place team in those divisions do not make the playoffs. As of right now that is Regina and Detroit. However, the race is close between Regina and Anaheim. As you can also see, there is only 11 points between Colorado and Nevada, meaning that the position of those teams can completely change before the season ends, but we will pair the teams as if the playoffs started today.

(So I think I have the pairings right, where a 2nd place division team will play a 3rd place different division team, based on last year's playoffs where Regina was seeded higher than Kelowna)

Colorado Raptors vs St. Louis Scarecrows (season series 2-0 Colorado, 3 games unplayed)

Colorado takes this one easily. They are still in a good spot to win their division and the Scarecrows are lucky that Detroit is in their division, or they wouldn’t be in the playoffs. But the Scarecrows have a bit of fight in them. So I’ll give a final series score of 4-1 to Colorado

Maine Timbers vs Anaheim Outlaws (season series 2-1 Maine, 1 game unplayed)

This series should be a little more interesting. Anaheim while 3rd in the Wollker is not totally on the outside. I see the Outlaws putting up a fight but ultimately falling short to Maine who could possibly have won a division if it were in a different one. Maine wins 4-2

Quebec City Citadelles vs Nevada Battleborn (season series 2-1 Quebec City, 1 game unplayed)

Now we get into the fun stuff. Only 2 points separate Quebec City and Nevada in the standings. Also a battle of expansion teams from S55. This one is anyone's series. I’m going to be a biased homer about it though. Nevada wins their first playoffs series in franchise history 4-3.

Great Falls Grizzlies vs Kelowna Knights (season series 4-1 Kelowna, 1 game unplayed)

Both these teams look good. Kelowna is 3rd in the toughest division in the league with Anchorage and Maine. Only a point behind Maine, you really don’t want to finish last in that division as you will have to play Great Falls, Quebec City, or Maine who are all capable teams. This series will go to 6 games and Kelowna sees in through, 4-2.

After those 1st round predictions our 2nd round looks like this:

Anchorage Armada vs Nevada Battleborn

Newfoundland Berserkers vs Kelowna Knights

Carolina Kraken vs Maine Timber

Vancouver Whalers vs Colorado Raptors

The second round pairings look good. Most of these teams are within 10 points of each other in the standings (as of right now). It’ll be interesting to see who gets out into the Top 4 from here. Let me know what you think! Did I get it wrong? Do you feel the parity? Should be a very exciting playoff this season.

[Image: Aleris-Sig3.gif?ex=66246b80&is=66231a00&...e44aac877&]

***bluesfan55*** · 11-29-2021, 09:20 PM

boat team good

ty to @High Stick King @EvilAllBran and @Ragnar for the sigs

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