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***_Blitz_*** · 03-31-2022, 11:29 AM

I’m honestly not too sure if this is allowed as a format or not, but here goes.

One of the claims that has been researched and understood for a while is that “Goalie TPE Doesn’t Mean Much in FHM”. As far as I’m concerned, there’s enough statistical information, as well as anecdotal, that backs that claim up that I’m not going to pursue it. Instead, I want to understand what makes a good goalie. Why and where should I invest my TPE? My hypothesis goes something like this: If goalie TPE and goalie attributes do not count toward the sim’s results, then there is nothing stopping a 208 TPE goalie with all of their stats set to 11 from being the best goaltender in the league. Logically, I would expect many more low-TPE goalies in the running for the McBride Trophy. Instead, the average nominee has 1482 applied TPE. So, the points can be surmised to matter somewhere. If points invested alone do not significantly change results, then the attributes where the points are invested must be the defining factor in goalie performance.

So let’s start with what goalies do in the SHL.

I compiled a whole list from the Index of every goalie who has played in the SHL (excluding the SMJHL) since S53, and then I also compiled their builds. In the end, going through a massive amount of data isn’t really worth it for a Deep Dive, so I just averaged out the builds. The Average SHL-Rostered Goalie looks like this:

Across the league, the average TPE is 835, but the build pictured above is 647 TPE. There’s a lot to be inferred from the average set of priorities around the league just from this. It’s not like there is a ton of guessing as to which stats are assigned higher values. What’s really interesting is looking at what the Average Goalie of the Year Nominee looks like:

The average applied TPE is listed at 1482, but this build shakes out to 1440 TPE. More than double the average build, but the priorities are taken to the extreme. Positioning and Reflexes are taken almost to the limit, with some combination of secondary emphasis on Blocker, Glove, Rebound, Recovery, and Low Shots. Tertiary emphasis goes to the mental stats, which deviates from Skater build mentality, and then the rest of it… can kind of go hang. You don’t want to completely neglect them, as is apparent when compared again to the Skater mentality of ignoring some stats completely if your role doesn’t call for it. But at the same time, no one who is following Goalie Build Logic is applying very much in the way of thought or points to Passing, Poke Checking, Puckhandling, or Skating.

What’s really interesting in the consideration of winning builds is the vast array of nominee applied TPE. Some might take this to be a condemnation of goalie TPE in general, but I think this speaks more to the teams around a goalie instead. But it’s still interesting to look at as a phenomenon that affects goalie awards considerations.

Note the number of builds below 1000 TPE that were nominated, and that it’s higher than those above 2000 TPE. Now compare that to the Jeff Dar Trophy, the Best Two-Way Player.

The goalie builds have a wider range of TPE, and the average of the range is 1740 TPE, which is almost 300 points higher. The build that comes from averaging all of this out, however, is 1685 TPE. Without running any sort of standard deviation or margins of error, that number gap is very different from goalies. On it’s own, not all that interesting, but when combined with how clearly goalies seem to agree on attributes, it paints a very different picture.

In conclusion, SHL goalies have a very clear meta build thought process that is different from that of skater builds. Tentatively, goalie TPE does have value. With the goalie meta so clearly defined, builds can focus more clearly on priority stats and don’t have as much value in variation. Good goalies focus intensely in three tiers of point distribution, though no stat is truly neglected. I do want to continue research and figure out 1) how much a goalie affects a team's performance, and 2) how much of an emphasis on certain stats will result in noticeably higher performance. Those will be explored in media.

***Chevy*** · 03-31-2022, 12:01 PM

In the FHM manual, it very specifically states that Positioning, Reflexes, Recovery and Rebound Control are the primary attributes that dictate whether or not a goalie will make a save. The others I believe will dictate at how good that save will be (actually catching in the glove vs bouncing off the glove, etc). Mental Toughness is the other biggest factor I think, then Stamina. Mental Toughness is like a skater stamina. If it is low, and you start letting in goals...its a cascading effect that will eventually lower all of your attributes...kind of like when a skater is gassed in a sim (more penalties, starts playing at lower attribute levels than what they actually have).

The other big thing, as we can see historically in sims is that you can have a max earning goalie who can absolutely steal wins where they shouldn't have won...but its Goalie + Defense that is the biggest factor. If you have a solid defense in front of you, your goalie statistics improve exponentially (see times where Matt Smith or A Jobin were ridiculous, but also had a great supporting cast on Defense)...compared to times where defense was lacking but you had a high impact goalie (Toronto / Winnipeg / etc).

Overall, good data though Blitz. Glad you're enjoying Shuckle.

Also, lets not ignore too the fact that, after the big TPE scale revamp, Goalies were unaffected...so its kind of a plus Smile

***_Blitz_*** · 03-31-2022, 12:52 PM

03-31-2022, 12:01 PMChevy Wrote: In the FHM manual, it very specifically states that Positioning, Reflexes, Recovery and Rebound Control are the primary attributes that dictate whether or not a goalie will make a save. The others I believe will dictate at how good that save will be (actually catching in the glove vs bouncing off the glove, etc). Mental Toughness is the other biggest factor I think, then Stamina. Mental Toughness is like a skater stamina. If it is low, and you start letting in goals...its a cascading effect that will eventually lower all of your attributes...kind of like when a skater is gassed in a sim (more penalties, starts playing at lower attribute levels than what they actually have).

The other big thing, as we can see historically in sims is that you can have a max earning goalie who can absolutely steal wins where they shouldn't have won...but its Goalie + Defense that is the biggest factor. If you have a solid defense in front of you, your goalie statistics improve exponentially (see times where Matt Smith or A Jobin were ridiculous, but also had a great supporting cast on Defense)...compared to times where defense was lacking but you had a high impact goalie (Toronto / Winnipeg / etc).

Overall, good data though Blitz. Glad you're enjoying Shuckle.

Also, lets not ignore too the fact that, after the big TPE scale revamp, Goalies were unaffected...so its kind of a plus

I didn't realize that it was in the manual. That should make it interesting when compared to NHL data.

I do want to do some testing around the idea of team effect on performance. It's planned for a media piece later on. I wanted to focus more on the meta and how TPE is used in it for the scope of this project.

*CptSquall* · 03-31-2022, 01:17 PM

Approved, +5 TPE to @Capt_Blitzkrieg

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