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S65 SMJHL Draft Lotto
#1
(This post was last modified: 04-28-2022, 08:11 PM by ACapitalChicago. Edited 7 times in total.)

Howdy everyone!

The S65 SMJHL Entry Draft Draft Lottery will be streamed this Thursday, April 28th, at 5pm PST/8pm EST

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUtjE7qTEyM - Draft lotto!

Whalers - 39 balls
Grizzlies - 26 balls
Scarecrows - 18 balls
Armada - 18 balls
Outlaws - 17 balls, securing 1st Overall
Timber - 16 balls

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S66 Damian Littleton


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#2

I know it's just because of how the league is structured at 14 teams, but it feels kind of lame that Anchorage had the same amount of points as Vancouver but has under half their odds to win just because we had to make playoffs despite being rebuilding.

I think the lotto system should be revised to factor in regular season performance more for allocation considering how the divisions work.

Ofc ANC could just end up winning the lotto anyway and I'll look dumb lole

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#3

04-26-2022, 03:59 PMGwdjohnson Wrote: I know it's just because of how the league is structured at 14 teams, but it feels kind of lame that Anchorage had the same amount of points as Vancouver but has under half their odds to win just because we had to make playoffs despite being rebuilding.

I think the lotto system should be revised to factor in regular season performance more for allocation considering how the divisions work.

Ofc ANC could just end up winning the lotto anyway and I'll look dumb lole

It's admittedly not ideal, but this is the system GMs voted for when we had to change playoff formats due to FHM6's restrictions. While in this case I do agree that Anchorage making playoffs may be detrimental to their season by season plans, especially as it was not by their own choice. The prevailing reasoning behind our current playoff format was to prevent teams from missing the playoffs in consecutive seasons, and to compensate the teams that do miss playoffs with better lottery odds. Yes, this does mean that teams can make the playoffs when they would prefer not to, or teams miss the playoffs while being better than some who make it. Again, I agree this is not ideal, but I just wanted to provide some overall context behind the current system. We're open to discussing a different calculation of lottery odds if people have suggestions, our current formulas are present in the rulebook as

Quote:Teams that miss playoffs will have the following amount of lottery balls
(Regulation Losses + OTL/SOL) * 0.7, rounded up

Teams knocked out in the first round of the playoffs will have the following amount of lottery balls
(Regulation Losses + OTL/SOL of all 8 first round playoff teams)/16, then minus the number of games they won in their series, rounded up

So as to give teams that make playoffs a chance, but not overwhelmingly disregard the teams that miss playoffs.

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S66 Damian Littleton


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#4

BALLS!
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#5

04-26-2022, 04:32 PMACapitalChicago Wrote:
04-26-2022, 03:59 PMGwdjohnson Wrote: I know it's just because of how the league is structured at 14 teams, but it feels kind of lame that Anchorage had the same amount of points as Vancouver but has under half their odds to win just because we had to make playoffs despite being rebuilding.

I think the lotto system should be revised to factor in regular season performance more for allocation considering how the divisions work.

Ofc ANC could just end up winning the lotto anyway and I'll look dumb lole

It's admittedly not ideal, but this is the system GMs voted for when we had to change playoff formats due to FHM6's restrictions. While in this case I do agree that Anchorage making playoffs may be detrimental to their season by season plans, especially as it was not by their own choice. The prevailing reasoning behind our current playoff format was to prevent teams from missing the playoffs in consecutive seasons, and to compensate the teams that do miss playoffs with better lottery odds. Yes, this does mean that teams can make the playoffs when they would prefer not to, or teams miss the playoffs while being better than some who make it. Again, I agree this is not ideal, but I just wanted to provide some overall context behind the current system. We're open to discussing a different calculation of lottery odds if people have suggestions, our current formulas are present in the rulebook as

Quote:Teams that miss playoffs will have the following amount of lottery balls
(Regulation Losses + OTL/SOL) * 0.7, rounded up

Teams knocked out in the first round of the playoffs will have the following amount of lottery balls
(Regulation Losses + OTL/SOL of all 8 first round playoff teams)/16, then minus the number of games they won in their series, rounded up

So as to give teams that make playoffs a chance, but not overwhelmingly disregard the teams that miss playoffs.

Yeah for sure, I totally get how the system is designed to fit with the playoff system, and I didn't mean to come off as just complaining because ANC's odds don't reflect the team's season performance. Ultimately it's not a huge deal because the difference between 1 and like 3/4 isn't too big in the J draft anyway.

That is true that the teams forced to miss playoffs deserve the best odds at the end of the day since they're outliers while everyone else gets a postseason. Maybe Anchorage's situation is unique compared to the norm anyway. Thanks for the reply though, I get that with 14 teams it makes things pretty wacky in terms of structuring stuff like this

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#6

04-26-2022, 11:08 PMGwdjohnson Wrote:
04-26-2022, 04:32 PMACapitalChicago Wrote: It's admittedly not ideal, but this is the system GMs voted for when we had to change playoff formats due to FHM6's restrictions. While in this case I do agree that Anchorage making playoffs may be detrimental to their season by season plans, especially as it was not by their own choice. The prevailing reasoning behind our current playoff format was to prevent teams from missing the playoffs in consecutive seasons, and to compensate the teams that do miss playoffs with better lottery odds. Yes, this does mean that teams can make the playoffs when they would prefer not to, or teams miss the playoffs while being better than some who make it. Again, I agree this is not ideal, but I just wanted to provide some overall context behind the current system. We're open to discussing a different calculation of lottery odds if people have suggestions, our current formulas are present in the rulebook as


So as to give teams that make playoffs a chance, but not overwhelmingly disregard the teams that miss playoffs.

Yeah for sure, I totally get how the system is designed to fit with the playoff system, and I didn't mean to come off as just complaining because ANC's odds don't reflect the team's season performance. Ultimately it's not a huge deal because the difference between 1 and like 3/4 isn't too big in the J draft anyway.

That is true that the teams forced to miss playoffs deserve the best odds at the end of the day since they're outliers while everyone else gets a postseason. Maybe Anchorage's situation is unique compared to the norm anyway. Thanks for the reply though, I get that with 14 teams it makes things pretty wacky in terms of structuring stuff like this

No worries, they're entirely valid concerns. Even if there's somewhat close value for 1-4 when it comes to getting the pick you want, we still want to respect teams and the entry draft as best we can. While Anchorage might be in a unique situation, we should still see if we can change things for the better for everyone if possible

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S66 Damian Littleton


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#7

Happening in 10 mins!

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#8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUtjE7qTEyM - Link to the draft lotto!

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#9

Congratulations to the Anaheim Outlaws on securing 1st OA for the upcoming S65 SMJHL Entry Draft! And a special thank you to Corey for streaming our draft lottery!

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S66 Damian Littleton


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