Login

*Pyro182* · 06-11-2023, 08:22 AM

With half of the season over it's time for some way too early predictions. The Tamper Town Division is already looking like the most interesting division. With its top 2 teams fighting for the one seed in the playoffs and its bottom 2 teams fighting for the last playoff spot every team in this division is likely to be playing games that matter late in the season. With that said, I've been working on a formula to predict different teams' success throughout the season and I plan to use it to project how and when these team's seasons will end. I have created two separate files calculating team's success one using historical data to create a starting point and one using only this season's data and all team's starting at the same point. I will be using both of these files as I am yet to decide which one will do better for the junior teams with their high turnover.

Maine Timber Timber

:

Both projections have this team finishing first both in their division and in the overall standings and ending the season with approximately 88 pts. They also both have Maine as the strongest team in the league, putting them all the way through to the finals and likely winning the championship. The path for Maine will start in the second round with both projections having them play 8/9 seed Colorado, in the historical projection Maine should win this series in 5, while in the current season projection Maine is estimated to win in 6, as they have a relatively high win probability for this season I believe it is highly likely they will make the semifinals this year. Their semis and finals opponents are projected to be 2 seeded Yukon and 5 seeded rival Nevada, both teams are expected to take Maine the full 7 games, so I would consider both series too close to have confidence in their success at this point.

Nevada Battleborn

:

Once again both projections agree as to where this team will land in the overall standings and with playoff seeding, both putting this team as second overall and fifth in season due to not being a division winner, ending their season with 85 pts. The projections currently have Nevada as the third strongest team in the league, yet they are still expected to make the finals to meet Maine. In both projections Nevada's first round opponent comes in the struggling team of Great Falls, Nevada is supposed to win this series in 5 games before they move onto the second round. Their second round opponent is expected to be Vancouver, with the current season projection having them take the full 7 games and the historical projection having them win in 6, due to the presence of one 7 game projections this might be the farthest Nevada gets if they slip up here. Their semi-finals opponent is our first major change between the two projections where the 3 vs 6 seed battle between Carolina and Newfoundland is expected to be a tough and close matchup. In the historical projection Nevada's opponent is expected to be 3 seeded Newfoundland, and in the current season projection they are expected to play 6 seeded Carolina. In both cases however Nevada is once again expected to take 7 games to close the series, before meeting their rivals Maine in the finals where they will play 7 hotly contested games.

Anchorage Armada Armada

:

At this point it is mostly obvious that the projections have mostly homogenized by this point in the season. Anchorage is expected to make the playoffs as the 7 seed, forcing Kelowna to watch from the sidelines. Anchorage is expected to finish the season with ~62pts, with the current projections placing them as the seventh strongest team and the historical projections putting them as the tenth strongest. Anchorage isn't expected to do much in the playoffs this year with a 7 games series win over Regina in the first round, before playing the second strongest team in Yukon dispatching them in 5 or 6 games.

Kelowna Knights Knights

:

Kelowna is sadly projected to be the odd ones out. Although they are expected to finish the season eleventh in the standings with 59 pts, this team is projected to be stuck watching teams like Detroit and Great Falls take their place. A sad sight with the current season projections having them as the tenth strongest team and the historical projections having them above Anchorage as the ninth strongest. This team can look forward to a high draft pick and guaranteed playoffs next year.

This division is super interesting despite the massive talent gap between the second and third placed teams in the divisional standings. With both playoff cutoffs at the top and bottom of the division having both teams project to be within 3 pts of each other.

chetib · 06-13-2023, 02:35 PM

Approved +5 TPE for @Pyro182

Navigation

Extra Menu

About us