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ibuprofenaddict · 10-26-2023, 01:21 PM

Looking at Detroit's Rookie Forwards

For this deep dive I wanted to take a look at the trio of rookies that have joined the forward corps of the Detroit Falcons for S73 of the SMJHL. These players include Will Tomlander, Emil Karlsson, and Marek Carda.

Tomlander, the 6’3” Swede, was the second pick in the entry draft and projects as an all-offense type player, excelling in puck handling and shooting. This makes him a bit different than his more defensive-minded draftmates. At the 60 games played mark in S73, Tomlander currently sports 18-22-40 and +4 totals skating mostly on the second line.

Karlsson, another 6’3” Swede is a balanced centerman who has primarily been tasked with third line duties so far in S73, along with moderate usage on the powerplay and penalty kill. Through 60 games, Karlsson has tallied 15-22-37 and a -6.

Carda, the native of Pilsen, Czechia, is a 6’1” thick bodied winger that excels on the hockey smarts side of the game, with most attributes balanced but ability to read the game highest of all. Through 60 games, Carda currently leads the trio with 14-28-42 and -12 serving on the third line and both special teams units.

One thing that jumps off the page is Carda’s point totals on special teams, having tallied 14 points on the powerplay to Tomlander and Karlsson, each on just 4. This is a result of Carda’s trio-leading PP TOI of 1:58, where he is currently tasked as the fourth forward on the PP1 unit, partnering high flying D-man Mephistopheles Morgonstjarna and a trio of veteran forwards. Trusted with this ice and position thanks to his offensive and defensive read traits, Carda owes a lot of his current season productivity to this deployment.

Karlsson leads the way in shooting percentage, at 14.2%, good for third on the entire Falcons team. This outstrips Tomlander’s 11.8%, while Carda’s 8.9% is solidly last of the three. Leaguewide, the average among forwards is 12.0%, showing that as rookies both Tomlander and especially Carda are shooting below average. If we were to normalize their performance to average, it would not affect Tomlander’s total goal tally, but Carda’s would rise from 14 to 19. This suggests that while Carda’s output has been encouraging so far, there is plenty of room for growth especially on the scoring touch.

Physically, Carda has a slim lead over Tomlander in hits, 133 over 124, while Karlsson, the gentle giant, is at just 69. Conversely, Karlsson has tallied the most takeaways at 44 to 30 for Carda and 12 for Tomlander. These stats bear out the position of Karlsson on the ice, as the third man in on the forecheck he is tallying fewer hits, but his typically central position on the ice and playing deep defensively has also netted him more natural takeaways. Protecting the puck is also important; Karlsson has just 37 giveaways, while Carda has 39 and Tomlander has 53.

Fancy stats wise, Tomlander has the best puck luck and overall team performance when on the ice, rocking a PDO of 101.1, while Karlsson and Carda are below the mean at 99.4 and 99.0, respectively. Regarding Corsi and Fenwick, Tomlander again leads the way in both along with the best relative numbers, even sporting a +0.1% CF Rel, while his draftmates seem to push team performance down while they’re on the ice.

Overall, the trio look primed to lead Detroit over the next 2 seasons. S74 should see the trio elevate to play a key supporting role to incumbent team leaders Prince Marius and Kenny Omega, while S75 could see this exact trio matriculate into a top line trio that could strike fear into the rest of the league. The only questions out there are – will they continue to improve on the stats they have accumulated in S73 with increased responsibility and usage? Will the Falcons front office be able to draft complimentary pieces to help this core (along with the solid defenders from this draft) stay toward the top of the league and challenge for the cup?

It will be interesting to watch unfold.

/675 words

chetib · 10-26-2023, 03:08 PM

Approved @ibuprofenaddict @CptSquall

***Aephino*** · 10-26-2023, 05:04 PM

dankoa · 10-27-2023, 07:12 AM

can't wait to see what this line is able to get going over the next few seasons!

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